Erste Group Bank Decreases Earnings Estimates for McDonald's

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank lowered its FY2026 EPS estimate for McDonald’s to $13.00 from $13.20, while keeping a Hold rating on the stock. The new forecast is still slightly above the current consensus estimate of $12.94 per share.
• McDonald’s recently reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings, posting $2.83 per share versus the $2.74 consensus estimate, on revenue of $6.52 billion. Revenue rose 9.4% from the same quarter last year.
• The stock has been under pressure, opening at $276.42 and trading near its 52-week low of $271.98, well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Despite that weakness, analysts overall still rate McDonald’s Moderate Buy with a consensus price target of $334.45.

McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD - Free Report) - Research analysts at Erste Group Bank dropped their FY2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for McDonald's in a research report issued on Friday, May 15th. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now expects that the fast-food giant will post earnings per share of $13.00 for the year, down from their prior forecast of $13.20. Erste Group Bank has a "Hold" rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for McDonald's' current full-year earnings is $12.94 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for McDonald's' FY2027 earnings at $14.20 EPS.

A number of other analysts have also weighed in on MCD. UBS Group increased their target price on McDonald's from $350.00 to $365.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research note on Thursday, February 12th. Mizuho increased their target price on McDonald's from $300.00 to $325.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research note on Friday, February 6th. Piper Sandler increased their target price on McDonald's from $323.00 to $325.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research note on Thursday, February 12th. Guggenheim cut their price target on McDonald's from $325.00 to $320.00 and set a "neutral" rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, February 13th. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company cut their price target on McDonald's from $355.00 to $320.00 and set an "overweight" rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, May 8th. Seventeen equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, fourteen have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company presently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $334.45.

McDonald's Stock Up 0.0%

MCD stock opened at $276.42 on Monday. The business's fifty day simple moving average is $304.30 and its two-hundred day simple moving average is $310.02. McDonald's has a twelve month low of $271.98 and a twelve month high of $341.75. The firm has a market cap of $196.40 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.79, a PEG ratio of 2.75 and a beta of 0.43.

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD - Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Thursday, May 7th. The fast-food giant reported $2.83 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $2.74 by $0.09. McDonald's had a negative return on equity of 442.10% and a net margin of 31.62%.The business had revenue of $6.52 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $6.47 billion. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted $2.67 earnings per share. The business's revenue was up 9.4% compared to the same quarter last year.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On McDonald's

A number of institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company boosted its position in McDonald's by 11.7% during the first quarter. The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company now owns 498,537 shares of the fast-food giant's stock valued at $154,940,000 after purchasing an additional 52,309 shares in the last quarter. Maverick Capital Ltd. boosted its position in McDonald's by 2,261.7% during the first quarter. Maverick Capital Ltd. now owns 294,100 shares of the fast-food giant's stock valued at $91,403,000 after purchasing an additional 281,647 shares in the last quarter. Quantinno Capital Management LP boosted its position in McDonald's by 33.5% during the first quarter. Quantinno Capital Management LP now owns 523,540 shares of the fast-food giant's stock valued at $162,711,000 after purchasing an additional 131,253 shares in the last quarter. Lazard Asset Management LLC boosted its position in McDonald's by 3.3% during the first quarter. Lazard Asset Management LLC now owns 752,498 shares of the fast-food giant's stock valued at $233,869,000 after purchasing an additional 24,092 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Family Manage LLC bought a new stake in McDonald's during the first quarter valued at about $2,660,000. Institutional investors own 70.29% of the company's stock.

Insider Buying and Selling at McDonald's

In other news, EVP Jonathan Banner sold 6,201 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction on Monday, February 23rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $333.29, for a total transaction of $2,066,731.29. Following the transaction, the executive vice president owned 2,291 shares in the company, valued at approximately $763,567.39. This trade represents a 73.02% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. Also, insider Joseph M. Erlinger sold 2,626 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction on Friday, April 10th. The shares were sold at an average price of $307.00, for a total value of $806,182.00. Following the transaction, the insider owned 8,400 shares in the company, valued at approximately $2,578,800. This represents a 23.82% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last 90 days, insiders have sold 12,119 shares of company stock worth $3,945,973. Insiders own 0.26% of the company's stock.

Key Headlines Impacting McDonald's

Here are the key news stories impacting McDonald's this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Several analysts and market commentators argue that McDonald’s looks oversold and inexpensive relative to its historical valuation, with strong fundamentals and long-term growth prospects potentially supporting a rebound. McDonald's Is the Cheapest It’s Been in Years—Does That Make It a Buy?
• Positive Sentiment: McDonald’s landed a major naming-rights deal for the Chicago Fire stadium, which adds brand visibility and reinforces the company’s deep marketing reach. McDonald's Lands Naming Rights Deal for $750 Million Chicago Fire Stadium
• Neutral Sentiment: McDonald’s remains a widely watched dividend stalwart, with its long record of shareholder payouts keeping it on income investors’ radar. Don’t Look Now, But 4 Blue-Chip Giants Could Be the Newest Dividend Kings
• Neutral Sentiment: News coverage also highlights that McDonald’s is a trending stock and a subject of debate among investors, but this mostly reflects attention rather than a clear new catalyst. McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It
• Negative Sentiment: Attention is centered on weaker U.S. company-run restaurant margins, with investors worried about pricing pressure, cost inflation, and the ownership mix affecting profitability. McDonald's Company-Run Margins Draw Focus: Can Ownership Mix Help?
• Negative Sentiment: Commentary from Jim Cramer and others points to the stock’s recent weakness, with concerns that McDonald’s has been “breaking down” despite being a defensive name. Jim Cramer on McDonald’s: “QSR I Think Is the Better”
• Negative Sentiment: Broader consumer cost pressures, including rising restaurant prices and higher gas prices, may weigh on traffic and spending at quick-service restaurants like McDonald’s. Grocery and Restaurant Prices Post Biggest Jump Since 2022

McDonald's Company Profile

McDonald's Corporation NYSE: MCD is a global quick-service restaurant company best known for its hamburgers, French fries and breakfast offerings. The company develops, operates and franchises a system of restaurants that sell a range of food and beverage items, including signature products such as the Big Mac, Quarter Pounder, Chicken McNuggets, McCafé coffee beverages and a variety of salads, desserts and seasonal menu items. McDonald's serves customers through company-operated restaurants and franchised locations, and it supports sales via dine-in, drive-thru, digital ordering platforms and third-party delivery partnerships.

Founded in 1940 by brothers Richard and Maurice McDonald as a single San Bernardino, California restaurant, the business was transformed into a franchising model after Ray Kroc joined in the mid-1950s and led the brand's national and international expansion.

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