Erste Group Bank Decreases Earnings Estimates for McDonald's

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank lowered McDonald’s FY2026 EPS estimate to $12.92 from $12.98 and set its FY2027 forecast at $14.15, while maintaining a “Hold” rating. The FY2026 estimate remains close to the broader consensus of $12.86.
• McDonald’s latest quarterly results exceeded expectations, with EPS of $2.83 versus the $2.74 consensus and revenue of $6.52 billion versus $6.47 billion expected. Revenue increased 9.4% year over year.
• The company declared a quarterly dividend of $1.86 per share, equivalent to $7.44 annually and a 2.7% yield. Analysts remain moderately bullish overall, with a consensus price target of $333.32 despite concerns about slowing same-store sales and rising beef costs.

McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD - Free Report) - Stock analysts at Erste Group Bank cut their FY2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for McDonald's in a report released on Monday, July 27th. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now expects that the fast-food giant will post earnings of $12.92 per share for the year, down from their prior forecast of $12.98. Erste Group Bank currently has a "Hold" rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for McDonald's' current full-year earnings is $12.86 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for McDonald's' FY2027 earnings at $14.15 EPS.

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, May 7th. The fast-food giant reported $2.83 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of $2.74 by $0.09. The business had revenue of $6.52 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $6.47 billion. McDonald's had a negative return on equity of 442.10% and a net margin of 31.62%.The business's revenue for the quarter was up 9.4% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter last year, the company earned $2.67 earnings per share.

Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Tigress Financial raised their price target on shares of McDonald's from $385.00 to $390.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research note on Friday, July 17th. Royal Bank Of Canada reissued a "sector perform" rating on shares of McDonald's in a research report on Tuesday. TD Cowen reissued a "hold" rating on shares of McDonald's in a research note on Friday, June 12th. UBS Group decreased their target price on shares of McDonald's from $365.00 to $340.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a research report on Monday. Finally, Rothschild & Co Redburn raised shares of McDonald's from a "sell" rating to a "neutral" rating and lifted their target price for the stock from $260.00 to $306.00 in a research note on Thursday, April 23rd. Fifteen equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and twelve have assigned a Hold rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat, McDonald's currently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $333.32.

McDonald's Trading Up 0.8%

Shares of MCD stock opened at $272.82 on Wednesday. The company has a market capitalization of $193.84 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.49, a PEG ratio of 2.91 and a beta of 0.41. The firm has a 50-day moving average price of $275.60 and a 200 day moving average price of $298.42. McDonald's has a twelve month low of $260.96 and a twelve month high of $341.75.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Large investors have recently made changes to their positions in the company. Brighton Jones LLC raised its holdings in McDonald's by 21.6% in the fourth quarter. Brighton Jones LLC now owns 9,286 shares of the fast-food giant's stock valued at $2,692,000 after buying an additional 1,649 shares during the period. Revolve Wealth Partners LLC grew its stake in McDonald's by 2.8% during the fourth quarter. Revolve Wealth Partners LLC now owns 1,942 shares of the fast-food giant's stock worth $563,000 after buying an additional 52 shares during the period. Sivia Capital Partners LLC grew its stake in McDonald's by 11.4% during the second quarter. Sivia Capital Partners LLC now owns 2,017 shares of the fast-food giant's stock worth $589,000 after buying an additional 206 shares during the period. United Bank increased its position in shares of McDonald's by 6.0% in the second quarter. United Bank now owns 8,102 shares of the fast-food giant's stock worth $2,367,000 after acquiring an additional 459 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Schnieders Capital Management LLC. increased its position in shares of McDonald's by 2.5% in the second quarter. Schnieders Capital Management LLC. now owns 12,938 shares of the fast-food giant's stock worth $3,780,000 after acquiring an additional 312 shares in the last quarter. 70.29% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Insider Activity

In related news, insider Joseph M. Erlinger sold 5,252 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, June 10th. The shares were sold at an average price of $284.32, for a total value of $1,493,248.64. Following the sale, the insider directly owned 7,734 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $2,198,930.88. This trade represents a 40.44% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at the SEC website. Also, EVP Desiree Ralls-Morrison sold 2,763 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, May 28th. The shares were sold at an average price of $278.36, for a total transaction of $769,108.68. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president owned 6,268 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $1,744,760.48. The trade was a 30.59% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Over the last quarter, insiders have sold 8,348 shares of company stock worth $2,355,634. Insiders own 0.26% of the company's stock.

McDonald's Announces Dividend

The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, September 16th. Stockholders of record on Tuesday, September 1st will be paid a dividend of $1.86 per share. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Tuesday, September 1st. This represents a $7.44 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 2.7%. McDonald's's dividend payout ratio is currently 61.34%.

Key Stories Impacting McDonald's

Here are the key news stories impacting McDonald's this week:

• Positive Sentiment: UBS maintained a Buy rating despite lowering its price target from $365 to $340, implying substantial potential upside from recent levels. The firm’s target remains well above the market price. UBS price-target update
• Positive Sentiment: McDonald’s reaffirmed its quarterly dividend of $1.86 per share, payable September 16, reinforcing the company’s appeal to income-oriented investors after a period of share-price weakness. McDonald’s dividend and valuation analysis
• Neutral Sentiment: McDonald’s shares have increased recently and are trading near their 52-week low, while Wall Street’s average price targets remain materially higher. This creates possible recovery upside but also reflects ongoing uncertainty about the company’s growth outlook. Stocks near 52-week lows
• Negative Sentiment: Erste Group Bank reduced its FY2026 EPS estimate to $12.92 from $12.98 and its FY2027 forecast to $14.15 from $14.19, retaining a Hold rating. The revisions signal modestly softer expectations, although the FY2026 estimate remains close to the broader consensus of $12.86. Erste Group earnings estimates
• Negative Sentiment: UBS and RBC expect sluggish or slowing same-store-sales growth in the second and third quarters, citing weaker consumer spending. That outlook raises concerns about traffic, pricing power and the effectiveness of McDonald’s value offerings. Same-store-sales outlook
• Negative Sentiment: Rising beef prices have pressured sentiment toward McDonald’s, potentially squeezing restaurant margins or forcing higher menu prices. Analysts also question whether the stock is fully valued given digital-sales and consumer-demand concerns. Beef-cost concerns

About McDonald's

McDonald's Corporation NYSE: MCD is a global quick-service restaurant company best known for its hamburgers, French fries and breakfast offerings. The company develops, operates and franchises a system of restaurants that sell a range of food and beverage items, including signature products such as the Big Mac, Quarter Pounder, Chicken McNuggets, McCafé coffee beverages and a variety of salads, desserts and seasonal menu items. McDonald's serves customers through company-operated restaurants and franchised locations, and it supports sales via dine-in, drive-thru, digital ordering platforms and third-party delivery partnerships.

Founded in 1940 by brothers Richard and Maurice McDonald as a single San Bernardino, California restaurant, the business was transformed into a franchising model after Ray Kroc joined in the mid-1950s and led the brand's national and international expansion.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to contact@marketbeat.com.