Erste Group Bank Comments on Valero Energy FY2026 Earnings

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank raised Valero’s FY2026 EPS estimate to $54.64 from $51.71, above the $54.22 consensus, while maintaining a “Hold” rating. The bank projects FY2027 EPS of $47.61.
• Valero reported a strong quarter, with EPS of $23.90 beating the $21.17 consensus by $2.73 and revenue rising 43.3% year over year to $46.10 billion.
• Analyst sentiment remains mixed but leans positive: MarketBeat shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus and a $379.94 average price target, while some analysts cited strong refining margins and fuel demand and others warned that cyclical conditions and valuation could limit upside.

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO - Free Report) - Equities researchers at Erste Group Bank upped their FY2026 earnings per share estimates for shares of Valero Energy in a research note issued on Wednesday, October 21st. Erste Group Bank analyst H. Engel now expects that the oil and gas company will earn $54.64 per share for the year, up from their prior forecast of $51.71. Erste Group Bank has a "Hold" rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for Valero Energy's current full-year earnings is $54.22 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for Valero Energy's FY2027 earnings at $47.61 EPS.

Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO - Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, October 22nd. The oil and gas company reported $23.90 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $21.17 by $2.73. Valero Energy had a net margin of 8.44% and a return on equity of 47.50%. The firm had revenue of $46.10 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $42.71 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business posted $3.66 EPS. The business's revenue was up 43.3% compared to the same quarter last year.

VLO has been the topic of a number of other research reports. Weiss Ratings raised Valero Energy from a "buy (b)" rating to a "buy (b+)" rating in a research report on Thursday, October 8th. Morgan Stanley raised their price objective on Valero Energy from $255.00 to $411.00 and gave the stock an "equal weight" rating in a research note on Monday, September 14th. Zacks Research raised Valero Energy from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating in a report on Tuesday, August 4th. Freedom Broker reiterated a "sell" rating and set a $276.00 target price on shares of Valero Energy in a research report on Friday. Finally, Bank of America upped their target price on Valero Energy from $395.00 to $414.00 and gave the company a "neutral" rating in a research report on Friday, October 2nd. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nine have given a Buy rating, eight have given a Hold rating and two have issued a Sell rating to the company's stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $379.94.

Valero Energy Stock Down 0.0%

NYSE VLO opened at $419.19 on Monday. The company has a current ratio of 1.64, a quick ratio of 1.23 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37. The company has a market cap of $120.70 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.43, a PEG ratio of 0.24 and a beta of 0.59. The company has a 50 day moving average of $393.03 and a 200-day moving average of $310.61. Valero Energy has a 1-year low of $159.90 and a 1-year high of $461.52.

Institutional Trading of Valero Energy

Several large investors have recently made changes to their positions in the company. Blue Zone Wealth Advisors LLC increased its holdings in Valero Energy by 2.4% during the 3rd quarter. Blue Zone Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 1,027 shares of the oil and gas company's stock worth $398,000 after purchasing an additional 24 shares during the period. Grove Bank & Trust raised its position in Valero Energy by 1.0% in the 3rd quarter. Grove Bank & Trust now owns 2,608 shares of the oil and gas company's stock valued at $1,011,000 after purchasing an additional 25 shares in the last quarter. Sigma Planning Corp boosted its stake in shares of Valero Energy by 0.4% in the 3rd quarter. Sigma Planning Corp now owns 7,171 shares of the oil and gas company's stock valued at $2,779,000 after buying an additional 29 shares during the period. Cornerstone Financial Management LLC boosted its stake in shares of Valero Energy by 57.6% in the 2nd quarter. Cornerstone Financial Management LLC now owns 104 shares of the oil and gas company's stock valued at $27,000 after buying an additional 38 shares during the period. Finally, V Square Quantitative Management LLC boosted its stake in shares of Valero Energy by 0.6% in the 1st quarter. V Square Quantitative Management LLC now owns 6,670 shares of the oil and gas company's stock valued at $1,648,000 after buying an additional 42 shares during the period. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 78.69% of the company's stock.

More Valero Energy News

Here are the key news stories impacting Valero Energy this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Exceptional Q3 earnings: Valero reported adjusted EPS of $23.90, well above the roughly $21.17 consensus, while revenue increased 43.3% year over year to $46.1 billion. Net income surged to $6.8 billion from $1.1 billion, driven primarily by sharply higher refining margins. Valero Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Favorable operating outlook: Management highlighted tight fuel markets, resilient demand, record ethanol production, improving renewable diesel and ethanol profitability, and expectations that fuel margins could rise again. The company also cited $9.8 billion in cash and disciplined capital spending, supporting financial flexibility. Valero Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Refining and Cash Strength
• Positive Sentiment: Several analysts remain constructive: Barclays raised its price target to $443 and retained an overweight rating, while Wells Fargo lifted its target to $489 and also maintained an overweight rating. Citigroup increased its target to $490, although it kept a neutral rating.
• Neutral Sentiment: Refining-sector momentum is strong but cyclical: Coverage emphasizes that Valero and other refiners are benefiting from tight fuel inventories and unusually high margins. Those conditions support near-term earnings but may be vulnerable to changes in crude prices, fuel demand, supply, or refinery utilization. Valero kicks off refiner results with record quarterly profit on higher margins
• Negative Sentiment: Valuation and analyst disagreement are weighing on sentiment: Freedom Broker reaffirmed a sell rating and assigned a $276 price target, implying substantial downside from the referenced trading level. TD Cowen raised its target to $400 but maintained a hold rating, underscoring concerns that much of the refining upside may already be reflected in VLO’s valuation.

About Valero Energy

Valero Energy Corporation is an international energy company headquartered in San Antonio, Texas. The company's primary business is refining and marketing transportation fuels, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products used by commercial, industrial and consumer customers.

Valero operates refineries in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. Its refining operations also produce asphalt, petrochemical feedstocks and other petroleum-based products. The company markets fuel through wholesale channels and branded retail networks, including Valero, Beacon and Shamrock-branded locations.

In addition to conventional refining, Valero has businesses focused on renewable fuels.

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