Erste Group Bank Issues Pessimistic Outlook for LLY Earnings

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank lowered its FY2026 EPS forecast for Eli Lilly to $33.87 from $36.55, though the revised estimate remains above the $33.22 consensus. Lilly’s own FY2026 guidance is $35.50–$36.50 per share.
• Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and an average price target of $1,317.93. JPMorgan and RBC both maintain $1,500 targets, while Wall Street Zen recently downgraded the stock to “Hold.”
• Lilly reported strong recent results, with quarterly EPS of $8.38 versus the $6.40 consensus and revenue up 47.7% year over year to $22.97 billion. However, insiders sold 13,500 shares worth nearly $16 million over the past three months, adding a potential cautionary signal.

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY - Free Report) - Equities research analysts at Erste Group Bank dropped their FY2026 EPS estimates for shares of Eli Lilly and Company in a report issued on Wednesday, October 21st. Erste Group Bank analyst H. Engel now forecasts that the company will post earnings per share of $33.87 for the year, down from their prior forecast of $36.55. The consensus estimate for Eli Lilly and Company's current full-year earnings is $33.22 per share.

Several other brokerages also recently commented on LLY. JPMorgan Chase & Co. lifted their target price on Eli Lilly and Company from $1,400.00 to $1,500.00 and gave the stock an "overweight" rating in a research note on Monday, September 28th. Royal Bank Of Canada restated an "outperform" rating and issued a $1,500.00 price target on shares of Eli Lilly and Company in a research note on Monday, October 12th. Guggenheim increased their price target on Eli Lilly and Company from $1,273.00 to $1,284.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research note on Friday, September 18th. UBS Group set a $1,376.00 price target on Eli Lilly and Company in a report on Friday, August 7th. Finally, Wall Street Zen cut shares of Eli Lilly and Company from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Saturday, October 17th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-four have given a Buy rating, three have issued a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, Eli Lilly and Company currently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $1,317.93.

Eli Lilly and Company Stock Performance

LLY opened at $1,275.50 on Monday. Eli Lilly and Company has a 12-month low of $809.63 and a 12-month high of $1,321.21. The stock has a market cap of $1.20 trillion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.80, a PEG ratio of 1.71 and a beta of 0.46. The business has a 50 day moving average of $1,186.64 and a 200-day moving average of $1,121.61. The company has a quick ratio of 1.00, a current ratio of 1.35 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.41.

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY - Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, August 5th. The company reported $8.38 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $6.40 by $1.98. Eli Lilly and Company had a net margin of 33.53% and a return on equity of 97.83%. The company had revenue of $22.97 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $20.82 billion. During the same period in the previous year, the business earned $6.31 EPS. Eli Lilly and Company's revenue for the quarter was up 47.7% compared to the same quarter last year. Eli Lilly and Company has set its FY 2026 guidance at 35.500-36.500 EPS.

Insider Buying and Selling at Eli Lilly and Company

In other news, EVP Patrik Jonsson sold 6,500 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, August 17th. The stock was sold at an average price of $1,175.10, for a total transaction of $7,638,150.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president owned 54,147 shares in the company, valued at $63,628,139.70. The trade was a 10.72% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, EVP Anat Hakim sold 5,000 shares of the company's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, August 7th. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,190.00, for a total value of $5,950,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the executive vice president directly owned 11,875 shares in the company, valued at $14,131,250. The trade was a 29.63% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders have sold a total of 13,500 shares of company stock valued at $15,958,170 in the last three months. 0.14% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Eli Lilly and Company

A number of large investors have recently made changes to their positions in LLY. Maseco LLP increased its position in Eli Lilly and Company by 466.7% during the 1st quarter. Maseco LLP now owns 34 shares of the company's stock worth $31,000 after buying an additional 28 shares during the period. Marshall & Sterling Wealth Advisors Inc. boosted its position in shares of Eli Lilly and Company by 60.0% in the first quarter. Marshall & Sterling Wealth Advisors Inc. now owns 40 shares of the company's stock valued at $37,000 after acquiring an additional 15 shares during the period. AlphaCentric Advisors LLC bought a new stake in shares of Eli Lilly and Company in the first quarter valued at about $42,000. Caitlin John LLC bought a new stake in shares of Eli Lilly and Company in the second quarter valued at about $64,000. Finally, IMG Wealth Management Inc. boosted its position in shares of Eli Lilly and Company by 500.0% in the second quarter. IMG Wealth Management Inc. now owns 60 shares of the company's stock valued at $72,000 after acquiring an additional 50 shares during the period. Institutional investors own 82.53% of the company's stock.

Trending Headlines about Eli Lilly and Company

Here are the key news stories impacting Eli Lilly and Company this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Manufacturing expansion supports long-term growth. Lilly broke ground on a $5 billion facility in Goochland County, Virginia, its first U.S. site designed to produce both active pharmaceutical ingredients and finished medicines. The project is part of a more than $50 billion U.S. manufacturing expansion and is expected to create 650 jobs, improving supply capacity for next-generation cancer and other complex medicines. Lilly Richmond manufacturing facility announcement
• Positive Sentiment: Weight-loss drug demand remains a major growth driver. Analysts expect emerging-market sales of weight-loss drugs to become a significant opportunity, supporting the long-term outlook for Mounjaro, Zepbound and related incretin products. Lilly’s recent growth has been driven by increasing volume, even as pricing has declined. JP Morgan emerging-market weight-loss drug outlook
• Positive Sentiment: Some analysts are raising earnings expectations. Erste Group Bank increased its FY2027 EPS forecast for Lilly to $47.77 from $47.30, signaling confidence in the company’s longer-term earnings trajectory. Erste Group Bank EPS estimate update
• Neutral Sentiment: ESG progress may support the company’s reputation but is unlikely to drive near-term trading. Lilly was cited for combining philanthropy with environmental initiatives while maintaining rapid commercial growth. Eli Lilly sustainability leadership article
• Negative Sentiment: Near-term earnings risk is weighing on sentiment. Previews anticipate a decline in third-quarter earnings, raising concerns that the stock’s elevated valuation leaves limited room for disappointment ahead of the upcoming report. Lilly Q3 earnings preview
• Negative Sentiment: Institutional trimming adds selling pressure. Polen Capital reduced its position in Lilly during the third quarter, although it reportedly maintained confidence in the company’s outlook. Polen Capital trims Lilly position

About Eli Lilly and Company

Eli Lilly and Company NYSE: LLY is a global pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets medicines for a range of medical conditions. Its major therapeutic areas include diabetes and obesity, oncology, immunology, neuroscience and cardiovascular health.

The company's portfolio includes Mounjaro and Trulicity for diabetes, Zepbound for chronic weight management, Humalog insulin, Taltz for inflammatory diseases, Verzenio for certain breast cancers and Kisunla for early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease.

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