FY2026 EPS Estimates for Rio Tinto Cut by Erste Group Bank

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank cut Rio Tinto’s FY2026 EPS forecast to $8.03 from $8.48 and issued a FY2027 estimate of $8.16, maintaining a “Hold” rating. The FY2026 forecast is below the broader consensus estimate of $8.18.
• Analyst sentiment remains mixed but leans neutral: Rio Tinto has a consensus “Hold” rating and a $101.62 price target, with 13 analysts rating the stock Hold compared with four Buys, one Strong Buy and one Sell.
• Institutional investors increased their positions, while Rio Tinto agreed to farm into an early-stage copper-gold project in Papua New Guinea. The company also faces governance and legal scrutiny related to a proposed 56% CEO pay increase and a sexual-harassment class action.

Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE:RIO - Free Report) - Equities researchers at Erste Group Bank decreased their FY2026 earnings per share estimates for shares of Rio Tinto in a report released on Wednesday, October 21st. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now forecasts that the mining company will post earnings of $8.03 per share for the year, down from their previous forecast of $8.48. Erste Group Bank currently has a "Hold" rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for Rio Tinto's current full-year earnings is $8.18 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for Rio Tinto's FY2027 earnings at $8.16 EPS.

Several other research firms also recently commented on RIO. The Goldman Sachs Group raised Rio Tinto from a "neutral" rating to a "buy" rating in a research note on Wednesday, July 29th. Citigroup restated a "neutral" rating on shares of Rio Tinto in a research report on Tuesday, October 13th. DZ Bank reaffirmed a "buy" rating on shares of Rio Tinto in a research note on Tuesday, September 15th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reaffirmed a "neutral" rating on shares of Rio Tinto in a research note on Thursday, July 30th. Finally, Jefferies Financial Group reiterated a "neutral" rating on shares of Rio Tinto in a research report on Thursday, August 20th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have given a Buy rating, thirteen have given a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of "Hold" and a consensus price target of $101.62.

Rio Tinto Price Performance

RIO stock opened at $85.76 on Wednesday. Rio Tinto has a fifty-two week low of $67.74 and a fifty-two week high of $112.58. The business's 50-day moving average is $96.35 and its two-hundred day moving average is $96.23.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the company. Altshuler Shaham Ltd bought a new stake in Rio Tinto in the first quarter worth $106,724,000. Renaissance Technologies LLC grew its stake in shares of Rio Tinto by 417.6% in the 1st quarter. Renaissance Technologies LLC now owns 965,800 shares of the mining company's stock worth $90,099,000 after buying an additional 779,200 shares in the last quarter. Bank of America Corp DE increased its holdings in shares of Rio Tinto by 6.6% in the 1st quarter. Bank of America Corp DE now owns 3,623,294 shares of the mining company's stock worth $338,017,000 after buying an additional 225,016 shares during the last quarter. Cidel Asset Management Inc. increased its holdings in shares of Rio Tinto by 101.1% in the 2nd quarter. Cidel Asset Management Inc. now owns 241,718 shares of the mining company's stock worth $22,946,000 after buying an additional 121,537 shares during the last quarter. Finally, SummitTX Capital L.P. raised its position in shares of Rio Tinto by 207.9% during the 1st quarter. SummitTX Capital L.P. now owns 113,025 shares of the mining company's stock valued at $10,544,000 after buying an additional 76,322 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 19.33% of the company's stock.

Key Rio Tinto News

Here are the key news stories impacting Rio Tinto this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Rio Tinto agreed to farm into the Liamu copper-gold project in Papua New Guinea, which includes the Dada porphyry discovery and Ubei prospect. The deal provides potential long-term copper and gold growth, although the project remains at an early exploration stage. Rio Tinto, LCL agree farm-in on PNG’s Liamu copper-gold project
• Neutral Sentiment: A former Rio Tinto executive was appointed to lead Australia’s national defence procurement or armaments agency. The appointment highlights the company’s management talent and government connections, but has no direct near-term impact on Rio Tinto’s earnings. Former Rio Tinto Australia CEO appointed as national armaments director
• Negative Sentiment: Erste Group Bank lowered its Rio Tinto EPS forecasts to $8.03 for fiscal 2026 from $8.48 and to $8.16 for fiscal 2027 from $8.59. Its “Hold” rating remains unchanged, but the reductions reinforce concerns about weaker future earnings growth and leave the estimates around or below the broader $8.18 consensus. Rio Tinto analyst estimate update
• Negative Sentiment: Rio Tinto and BHP reportedly lost an initial procedural battle in a sexual-harassment class action. Continued litigation could create legal costs, reputational damage and governance concerns. BHP and Rio Tinto lose first battle in sexual harassment class action
• Negative Sentiment: Rio Tinto proposed a 56% pay increase for CEO Simon Trott. The proposal may face shareholder scrutiny because of its size, potentially intensifying concerns about executive compensation and corporate governance. Rio Tinto proposes 56% pay bump for CEO
• Negative Sentiment: Unusually heavy put-option activity—6,606 contracts, 48% above typical volume—signals increased hedging or bearish speculation around RIO, though options activity alone does not confirm a change in fundamentals.

Rio Tinto Company Profile

Rio Tinto plc is a diversified mining and metals company with operations and projects spanning multiple continents. Its principal products include iron ore, aluminum, copper, lithium, borates and titanium dioxide, which are supplied to customers in the steel, construction, automotive, technology and manufacturing industries.

The company explores for, mines, processes and transports mineral resources, while also operating related infrastructure such as railways, ports, smelters and processing facilities.

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