Scotiabank Has Negative Opinion of Vistra FY2027 Earnings

Key Points

• Scotiabank cut its FY2027 EPS estimate for Vistra to $9.95 from $11.16, but maintained its “Sector Outperform” rating and $189 price target.
• Vistra’s latest quarterly results beat expectations: EPS was $3.25 versus $2.98 consensus, while revenue reached $6.35 billion against a $6.03 billion estimate.
• Despite the earnings beat, the stock was reported down 6.1%; Vistra also announced a slightly higher quarterly dividend of $0.231 per share.

Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST - Free Report) - Stock analysts at Scotiabank decreased their FY2027 earnings estimates for Vistra in a research report issued to clients and investors on Monday, November 2nd. Scotiabank analyst A. Weisel now anticipates that the company will earn $9.95 per share for the year, down from their prior estimate of $11.16. Scotiabank currently has a "Sector Outperform" rating and a $189.00 target price on the stock. The consensus estimate for Vistra's current full-year earnings is $8.92 per share.

Vistra (NYSE:VST - Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Friday, November 6th. The company reported $3.25 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $2.98 by $0.27. Vistra had a return on equity of 108.68% and a net margin of 11.55%. The business had revenue of $6.35 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $6.03 billion.

Several other brokerages have also weighed in on VST. BNP Paribas Exane set a $255.00 price objective on Vistra and gave the stock an "outperform" rating in a report on Wednesday, August 19th. Williams Trading set a $202.00 price objective on Vistra in a research report on Friday, October 2nd. BMO Capital Markets cut their target price on Vistra from $210.00 to $188.00 and set an "outperform" rating for the company in a research note on Thursday. Raymond James Financial set a $176.00 target price on Vistra in a research report on Wednesday, October 21st. Finally, UBS Group set a $176.00 target price on Vistra in a research report on Wednesday, October 21st. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nineteen have given a Buy rating, three have issued a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company currently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $205.00.

Vistra Trading Down 6.1%

Vistra stock opened at $113.00 on Friday. The business has a 50 day moving average price of $144.19 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $152.81. The company has a quick ratio of 0.87, a current ratio of 0.97 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87. The stock has a market cap of $37.93 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.09 and a beta of 1.37. Vistra has a 12 month low of $110.89 and a 12 month high of $196.80.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, December 31st. Investors of record on Tuesday, December 22nd will be paid a $0.2310 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Tuesday, December 22nd. This represents a $0.92 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.8%. This is a positive change from Vistra's previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra's payout ratio is presently 15.54%.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In related news, CEO James Burke acquired 4,465 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Tuesday, September 1st. The stock was bought at an average cost of $135.25 per share, with a total value of $603,891.25. Following the completion of the acquisition, the chief executive officer owned 1,146,352 shares in the company, valued at $155,044,108. The trade was a 0.39% increase in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available through this hyperlink. Also, EVP Scott A. Hudson sold 22,222 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Tuesday, October 6th. The shares were sold at an average price of $160.14, for a total transaction of $3,558,631.08. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president owned 308,915 shares in the company, valued at $49,469,648.10. This represents a 6.71% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Corporate insiders own 0.92% of the company's stock.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Vistra

A number of hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in the company. BlackRock Inc. acquired a new position in Vistra during the second quarter valued at approximately $4,610,496,000. Bank of America Corp DE bought a new stake in Vistra in the second quarter valued at approximately $468,354,000. Bank of New York Mellon Corp acquired a new stake in Vistra in the second quarter worth $381,938,000. Jupiter Topco LLC acquired a new stake in Vistra in the second quarter worth $262,169,000. Finally, Deutsche Bank AG acquired a new stake in Vistra in the second quarter worth $138,267,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 90.88% of the company's stock.

Trending Headlines about Vistra

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: BMO Capital Markets kept an “outperform” rating and set a $188 price target, although it lowered the target from $210. That target implies considerable upside from the $113 reference price. BMO Capital Markets rating
• Positive Sentiment: Options-market analysis cited by Barchart suggests shares could recover some recent losses after the quarterly update, though this is an expectation rather than a guarantee. Barchart options analysis
• Neutral Sentiment: Vistra is scheduled to report Q3 results before the market opens on Nov. 6. Analysts expect improved year-over-year revenue, making the report and management’s outlook potential near-term catalysts. Analyst expectations ahead of earnings
• Negative Sentiment: KeyCorp cut its rating from “overweight” to “sector weight.” Its estimates of $8.04 EPS for FY2026 are below the cited $8.92 consensus, reinforcing concerns about earnings expectations. KeyBanc downgrade rationale
• Negative Sentiment: Texas election results have raised concerns about potential policy changes affecting data-center growth and future electricity demand. The uncertainty is weighing on Vistra’s growth outlook, even as much of its near-term output is hedged. Texas election and Vistra outlook
• Negative Sentiment: Scotiabank lowered its FY2027 EPS forecast to $9.95 from $11.16, while retaining a “sector outperform” rating and $189 target. Separately, unusually heavy put-option buying indicates increased demand for downside protection. Vistra analyst and trading updates

Vistra Company Profile

Vistra Corp. NYSE: VST is an integrated energy company based in Irving, Texas. The company operates across electricity generation, power distribution support, energy marketing and retail electricity sales, serving residential, commercial and industrial customers primarily in the United States.

Vistra owns and operates a diverse portfolio of power generation and energy storage facilities. Its assets include natural gas, nuclear, coal and renewable generation, as well as battery storage projects.

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