Kinross Gold Raises Shareholder Returns as Great Bear Targets 2029 First Pour

Key Points

• Kinross raised its shareholder-return framework to 40%–50%, supported by a strong balance sheet, expected net cash of about $2 billion by year-end, dividends, buybacks and free-cash-flow generation.
• The company reduced production guidance by roughly 40,000–60,000 ounces after temporary challenges at Round Mountain and La Coipa, including weaker recoveries, mining-transition issues, snowfall and unexpectedly high copper content.
• Great Bear remains on track for a targeted 2029 first gold pour. Underground development and surface infrastructure are advancing, with early mill-construction permits expected in spring 2027 pending regulatory approval.

Kinross Gold NYSE: KGC outlined changes to its production and cost outlook, an increased shareholder-return framework and progress at its Great Bear development project during a discussion with CIBC World Markets analyst Anita Soni.

The company representative said Kinross produces about 2 million ounces of gold annually from six operations and has approximately 20 million ounces of proven and probable reserves, plus another 40 million ounces of measured and indicated resources. Kinross began the year with $1 billion in net cash and said it remains on track to reach roughly $2 billion in net cash by year-end.

Kinross said its three non-U.S. mines—Tasiast in Mauritania, Paracatu and La Coipa in Chile—account for about two-thirds of production and carry all-in sustaining costs of roughly $1,500 per ounce. The company also highlighted its Great Bear project in Ontario and Lobo-Marte project in Chile as major future development assets.

Production guidance adjusted after operational challenges

The company said it reduced its outlook after issues emerged in August at two smaller operations, Round Mountain in Nevada and La Coipa in Chile. The representative characterized the effect as approximately 2% to 3% outside Kinross’ guidance range, or roughly 40,000 to 60,000 ounces, and described the issues as temporary.

At Round Mountain, Kinross is working through a transition from an open pit to the Phase X underground operation. The company said it has completed about 9.5 kilometers of underground development and is preparing work scopes and training underground personnel.

However, the company has encountered lower-than-expected recoveries and grade performance in Phase S, a southern layback intended to bridge production toward Phase X. While grade is visible in mined rock, it has not fully reported to the mill, the representative said. Kinross has moved from larger shovels to smaller equipment to support more selective mining and reduce dilution.

“That’s preserving gold,” the representative said, adding that the lower mining rate should be viewed as a production deferral rather than a loss.

At La Coipa, unusually heavy snowfall affected mining activity and the company’s ability to keep the mill supplied. Kinross also encountered higher copper grades than anticipated as mining moved from oxide material into sulfide zones. The company said it has seen intervals with 5%, 6% and 7% copper, which have affected gold recoveries because its current processing system is not designed for that material.

Kinross said it has been advancing a prefeasibility study for flotation processing and plans to stockpile the copper-bearing material while conducting further work. The company also sees potential for additional mineralization beneath its oxide pits in the broader Maricunga district.

Higher capital returns tied to balance-sheet strength

In response to Soni’s question about capital allocation, the company said it raised its overall shareholder-return framework to 40% to 50%. The representative said Kinross prefers to increase shareholder distributions from a position of financial strength and confidence in cash flow.

Kinross had planned to revisit capital returns later in the year, around its upcoming third-quarter reporting period. However, management chose to announce the changes earlier alongside the guidance update in an effort to provide “timely transparency,” according to the representative.

The company pointed to its investment-grade balance sheet, buyback and dividend program, free-cash-flow generation and trading liquidity as supporting elements of its investment case.

Great Bear permitting and construction timeline

Kinross said Great Bear remains on track under a parallel permitting strategy. The Advanced Exploration decline is being advanced through Ontario permitting processes, while the main project permit—needed to construct a mill—is proceeding through a federal review led by the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada.

The company said surface infrastructure, including the camp, water treatment plant and power connection, is progressing, while the underground decline has reached about 300 meters. Kinross said it has obtained the permits needed for its current underground work.

Addressing media discussion around water treatment, the representative said a concern involving perpetual water treatment was determined by the federal regulator to be based on a misunderstanding of geochemistry and was removed from the assessment process. Kinross said its two local First Nations are supportive and that it has signed a memorandum of understanding related to an impact-benefit agreement.

The company expects early works permits for mill construction in spring 2027, assuming regulatory approval, which would support a targeted 2029 first gold pour.

Looking beyond Great Bear, Kinross said Lobo-Marte could enter production in the early 2030s. The company described the Chilean project as having an expected initial 15-year mine life, annual production of approximately 350,000 ounces and all-in sustaining costs near $1,000 per ounce.

Kinross also identified continued operational improvement at Paracatu and Tasiast, the Round Mountain underground transition, and exploration in Chile and at Great Bear as areas of potential upside.

About Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC)

Kinross Gold Corporation is a Canadian gold mining company headquartered in Toronto, Ontario. The company explores for, develops, and operates gold mines, with silver produced as a byproduct at certain properties. Its activities include mineral exploration, mine development, ore processing, and the sale of refined gold and other metals.

Kinross has historically operated mines across the Americas and West Africa. Its portfolio has included the Fort Knox, Round Mountain, and Bald Mountain mines in the United States; Paracatu in Brazil; Tasiast in Mauritania; and La Coipa in Chile.

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