Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO) Hits New 12-Month Low - Here's Why

Key Points

• Shares hit a new 52-week low, trading down about 6.4% (as low as $870.01) on heavy volume after recent sell‑offs.
• Regulatory and pricing risk — moves by Fannie, Freddie and the FHA to accept alternative credit‑score models and Senate scrutiny of per‑score pricing are the main catalysts threatening FICO’s mortgage‑scoring dominance and pricing power.
• Underlying fundamentals remain solid: FICO reported a Q4 earnings beat, strong revenue growth, reiterated FY26 guidance, authorized a $1.5B buyback, and retains a consensus "Moderate Buy" analyst rating despite several price‑target cuts.

Shares of Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO - Get Free Report) hit a new 52-week low on Thursday . The stock traded as low as $870.01 and last traded at $969.9260, with a volume of 1402736 shares. The stock had previously closed at $1,036.70.

Fair Isaac News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Fair Isaac this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Recent earnings and guidance remain solid: Q4 results showed an earnings beat, strong revenue growth and FY26 EPS guidance that reiterates management's outlook. Fair Isaac (FICO) Q4 2024 Earnings Transcript
• Positive Sentiment: New analyst coverage: Mizuho initiated with an Outperform and $1,416 PT, signaling buy-side conviction that competitive risks are being overestimated. Mizuho Initiates Coverage
• Neutral Sentiment: Wall Street previews expect continued earnings growth heading into the next report — supportive but secondary to the policy/competitive headlines. Zacks preview
• Neutral Sentiment: Media/stock-screen coverage and investor dashboards highlight active insider sales and large institutional position shifts; informative for sentiment but not direct catalysts. QuiverQuant analysis
• Negative Sentiment: Regulatory/market access risk: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA are moving to accept alternative credit-score models for mortgages — a direct threat to FICO’s dominant role in mortgage scoring and long-term pricing leverage. Fannie, Freddie, FHA accept alternatives
• Negative Sentiment: Renewed scrutiny on per-score pricing: a Senate oversight letter and mortgage-industry complaints spotlight planned per-score price hikes and rising score/report costs, increasing the chance of regulatory pushback or mandated pricing concessions. That concern is the main driver of today’s sell-off. MarketWatch: stock falls as Fannie/Freddie deal blow

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

FICO has been the subject of several recent analyst reports. Needham & Company LLC reiterated a "buy" rating on shares of Fair Isaac in a research note on Thursday, February 26th. Bank of America initiated coverage on Fair Isaac in a research note on Tuesday, February 17th. They set a "buy" rating and a $1,900.00 price target for the company. JPMorgan Chase & Co. decreased their price target on Fair Isaac from $1,825.00 to $1,325.00 and set a "neutral" rating for the company in a research note on Tuesday, March 24th. UBS Group decreased their price target on Fair Isaac from $1,500.00 to $1,350.00 and set a "neutral" rating for the company in a research note on Wednesday, March 11th. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group decreased their price target on Fair Isaac from $1,770.00 to $1,528.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a research note on Thursday, April 2nd. Ten analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and five have issued a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the company presently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $1,803.14.

Fair Isaac Trading Down 6.4%

The firm has a fifty day simple moving average of $1,185.05 and a 200 day simple moving average of $1,493.36. The stock has a market cap of $23.01 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.90, a PEG ratio of 0.99 and a beta of 1.38.

Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, January 28th. The technology company reported $7.33 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $7.08 by $0.25. The firm had revenue of $766.00 million during the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $501.05 million. Fair Isaac had a negative return on equity of 40.98% and a net margin of 31.89%.The company's revenue for the quarter was up 16.4% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $5.79 EPS. Fair Isaac has set its FY 2026 guidance at 38.170-38.170 EPS. On average, equities analysts expect that Fair Isaac Corporation will post 36.45 earnings per share for the current year.

Fair Isaac declared that its board has approved a stock repurchase plan on Wednesday, February 25th that permits the company to repurchase $1.50 billion in shares. This repurchase authorization permits the technology company to buy up to 5.2% of its shares through open market purchases. Shares repurchase plans are often an indication that the company's leadership believes its stock is undervalued.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other news, Director Eva Manolis sold 520 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, February 25th. The stock was sold at an average price of $1,227.63, for a total value of $638,367.60. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 344 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $422,304.72. This represents a 60.19% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is accessible through the SEC website. Also, Director Joanna Rees sold 358 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, February 13th. The stock was sold at an average price of $1,360.00, for a total value of $486,880.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 11,204 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $15,237,440. The trade was a 3.10% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Corporate insiders own 3.02% of the company's stock.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Fair Isaac

A number of hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Patton Fund Management Inc. raised its holdings in shares of Fair Isaac by 115.9% in the 1st quarter. Patton Fund Management Inc. now owns 272 shares of the technology company's stock worth $290,000 after buying an additional 146 shares in the last quarter. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC raised its holdings in shares of Fair Isaac by 7.6% in the 1st quarter. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC now owns 2,242 shares of the technology company's stock worth $2,393,000 after buying an additional 158 shares in the last quarter. WT Wealth Management acquired a new position in shares of Fair Isaac in the 1st quarter worth approximately $204,000. Louisiana State Employees Retirement System acquired a new position in shares of Fair Isaac in the 1st quarter worth approximately $1,281,000. Finally, Silver Oak Securities Incorporated raised its holdings in shares of Fair Isaac by 38.7% in the 1st quarter. Silver Oak Securities Incorporated now owns 573 shares of the technology company's stock worth $611,000 after buying an additional 160 shares in the last quarter. 85.75% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

About Fair Isaac

Fair Isaac Corporation, commonly known as FICO, is a data analytics and software company best known for its FICO Score, a widely used credit-scoring system that helps lenders assess consumer credit risk. Founded in 1956 by Bill Fair and Earl Isaac, the company has evolved from its origins in statistical credit scoring to a broader focus on predictive analytics, decision management and artificial intelligence-driven solutions for financial services and other industries. FICO is headquartered in San Jose, California, and operates globally, serving clients across North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.

FICO's product portfolio centers on analytics and decisioning technologies.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to contact@marketbeat.com.