FY2026 Earnings Forecast for SPOT Issued By Erste Group Bank

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank lowered Spotify’s FY2026 EPS forecast to $14.24 from $14.35, below the current analyst consensus of $14.46.
• Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive but mixed: Spotify has a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and an average price target of $629.73, while several firms recently cut price targets or downgraded the stock.
• Spotify recently exceeded quarterly earnings expectations, reporting $4.04 EPS versus $3.41 expected and $5.25 billion in revenue; however, insiders have sold more than $54.7 million of shares over the past three months.

Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT - Free Report) - Investment analysts at Erste Group Bank decreased their FY2026 EPS estimates for Spotify Technology in a report issued on Monday, July 27th. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now anticipates that the company will post earnings of $14.24 per share for the year, down from their previous forecast of $14.35. The consensus estimate for Spotify Technology's current full-year earnings is $14.46 per share.

Several other brokerages have also recently weighed in on SPOT. KeyCorp reduced their price target on Spotify Technology from $745.00 to $680.00 and set an "overweight" rating on the stock in a research note on Wednesday, April 29th. Wall Street Zen lowered shares of Spotify Technology from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research note on Saturday, July 25th. Cantor Fitzgerald lifted their price target on shares of Spotify Technology from $430.00 to $520.00 and gave the company a "neutral" rating in a research report on Tuesday, May 26th. Weiss Ratings lowered shares of Spotify Technology from a "hold (c+)" rating to a "hold (c)" rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 23rd. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group cut their price objective on shares of Spotify Technology from $670.00 to $600.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a report on Wednesday, April 29th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eighteen have issued a Buy rating and six have issued a Hold rating to the company's stock. According to MarketBeat, Spotify Technology has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $629.73.

Spotify Technology Stock Performance

SPOT stock opened at $522.68 on Thursday. Spotify Technology has a fifty-two week low of $405.00 and a fifty-two week high of $748.30. The company has a market capitalization of $107.61 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.65, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.27 and a beta of 1.56. The business's 50 day moving average price is $485.86 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $486.46.

Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, April 28th. The company reported $4.04 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $3.41 by $0.63. The company had revenue of $5.25 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $5.23 billion. Spotify Technology had a net margin of 15.56% and a return on equity of 35.73%. Spotify Technology's quarterly revenue was up 8.2% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the previous year, the company earned $1.07 earnings per share.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Spotify Technology

A number of hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in SPOT. Northside Capital Management LLC purchased a new position in Spotify Technology in the 2nd quarter worth about $523,000. Wasatch Advisors LP lifted its holdings in Spotify Technology by 7.2% in the second quarter. Wasatch Advisors LP now owns 1,054 shares of the company's stock valued at $484,000 after acquiring an additional 71 shares during the period. Community Financial Services Group LLC purchased a new position in Spotify Technology in the second quarter worth about $52,000. Arista Wealth Management LLC grew its stake in shares of Spotify Technology by 62.0% during the 2nd quarter. Arista Wealth Management LLC now owns 2,439 shares of the company's stock valued at $1,120,000 after purchasing an additional 933 shares during the period. Finally, Valeo Financial Advisors LLC grew its stake in shares of Spotify Technology by 77.6% during the 2nd quarter. Valeo Financial Advisors LLC now owns 1,387 shares of the company's stock valued at $637,000 after purchasing an additional 606 shares during the period. 84.09% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Insider Activity

In other news, Director Christopher P. Marshall sold 2,650 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction on Tuesday, May 26th. The stock was sold at an average price of $519.86, for a total transaction of $1,377,629.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 4,039 shares in the company, valued at $2,099,714.54. This trade represents a 39.62% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. Also, Director Sven Hans Martin Lorentzon sold 35,380 shares of Spotify Technology stock in a transaction dated Friday, May 22nd. The stock was sold at an average price of $525.73, for a total value of $18,600,327.40. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 6,383 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $3,355,734.59. This represents a 84.72% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Over the last three months, insiders sold 111,442 shares of company stock valued at $54,757,553. 0.40% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.

Key Headlines Impacting Spotify Technology

Here are the key news stories impacting Spotify Technology this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Spotify is gaining ground on South Korea’s Melon music service, suggesting improving competitive momentum in an important Asian market. Greater market share could support user growth and future advertising and subscription revenue. Spotify is gaining ground on Melon in South Korea, data shows
• Positive Sentiment: A new Snapchat integration enables real-time music sharing through Spotify, potentially increasing content discovery, engagement and user acquisition on the platform. Snapchat introduces real-time music sharing through Spotify integration
• Positive Sentiment: KeyCorp maintained an “Overweight” rating and a $680 price target, forecasting $27.06 in FY2028 EPS. That outlook implies substantial long-term earnings growth compared with the current-year consensus estimate of $14.46. KeyCorp Spotify earnings estimate and price target
• Neutral Sentiment: Investors are watching the August 4 report for evidence of stronger user growth and improving profitability. Spotify recently showed solid earnings performance, but earlier guidance was viewed as cautious, raising the importance of the upcoming outlook. Dear Spotify stock fans, mark your calendars for August 4
• Neutral Sentiment: Shares have recently gained momentum, including a reported 10.51% seven-day return, although they remain below their 52-week high. Analysts disagree on whether cash-flow potential makes the stock attractive or whether its elevated valuation leaves little room for disappointment. Spotify stock may be a bargain on cash flow yet priced for perfection
• Negative Sentiment: KeyCorp lowered its second-quarter EPS estimates, adding pressure ahead of earnings and potentially signaling more modest near-term expectations. Q2 EPS estimates for Spotify lowered by KeyCorp
• Negative Sentiment: Erste Group Bank reduced its FY2027 EPS forecast to $17.60 from $17.70. While the change was small, downward estimate revisions can weigh on sentiment before a closely watched earnings release. Erste Group Bank Spotify earnings estimate revision
• Negative Sentiment: Some analysts believe Spotify lacks the indicators typically associated with a likely earnings beat, while the stock may already be priced for near-perfect results. That creates downside risk if user growth, margins or guidance disappoint. Spotify earnings expected to grow: should you buy?

About Spotify Technology

Spotify Technology is a digital audio streaming company best known for its on-demand music service and a growing portfolio of spoken-word content. Founded in Sweden in 2006 by Daniel Ek and Martin Lorentzon and launched commercially in 2008, the company offers a cross-platform app that enables users to discover, stream and organize music, podcasts and other audio. Its primary consumer products include a free, ad-supported tier and a paid Spotify Premium subscription that provides ad-free listening, offline playback and higher-quality audio streams.

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