FY2026 EPS Forecast for Alibaba Group Decreased by Analyst

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank cut its FY2026 EPS forecast for Alibaba to $4.16 (from $4.39), kept a Hold rating and also trimmed FY2027 to $6.37, a downward revision that could pressure sentiment and valuation multiples.
• Analyst coverage is mixed but leans positive overall: MarketBeat data shows one Strong Buy, 17 Buys, 4 Holds and 1 Sell with an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $188.75, well above the current share price (~$130).
• Near‑term catalyst: Alibaba will report Q4/FY2026 results on May 13, which could trigger significant share movement depending on revenue, margins and cloud/AI commentary.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA - Free Report) - Analysts at Erste Group Bank dropped their FY2026 earnings estimates for shares of Alibaba Group in a report issued on Monday, April 27th. Erste Group Bank analyst H. Engel now expects that the specialty retailer will post earnings per share of $4.16 for the year, down from their previous forecast of $4.39. Erste Group Bank has a "Hold" rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for Alibaba Group's current full-year earnings is $4.39 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for Alibaba Group's FY2027 earnings at $6.37 EPS.

Several other brokerages have also weighed in on BABA. Arete Research upgraded shares of Alibaba Group from a "neutral" rating to a "buy" rating and set a $190.00 target price on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, January 21st. JPMorgan Chase & Co. decreased their target price on shares of Alibaba Group from $215.00 to $205.00 and set an "overweight" rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, March 20th. Weiss Ratings lowered shares of Alibaba Group from a "buy (b-)" rating to a "hold (c+)" rating in a research report on Friday, February 27th. Zacks Research lowered shares of Alibaba Group from a "hold" rating to a "strong sell" rating in a research report on Wednesday, April 22nd. Finally, Argus upgraded shares of Alibaba Group to a "hold" rating in a research report on Tuesday, March 24th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, seventeen have issued a Buy rating, four have given a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company's stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Alibaba Group has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $188.75.

Alibaba Group Price Performance

Shares of Alibaba Group stock opened at $130.37 on Thursday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22, a quick ratio of 1.33 and a current ratio of 1.33. The firm's 50-day simple moving average is $133.49 and its 200-day simple moving average is $151.49. Alibaba Group has a twelve month low of $103.71 and a twelve month high of $192.67. The firm has a market cap of $311.80 billion, a P/E ratio of 24.60, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 2.38 and a beta of 0.50.

Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Saturday, February 14th. The specialty retailer reported $0.13 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter. The company had revenue of $40.71 billion for the quarter. Alibaba Group had a net margin of 9.12% and a return on equity of 7.43%.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Alibaba Group

Several institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Bruce G. Allen Investments LLC lifted its holdings in Alibaba Group by 26.4% during the 3rd quarter. Bruce G. Allen Investments LLC now owns 302 shares of the specialty retailer's stock valued at $54,000 after purchasing an additional 63 shares during the last quarter. Bluesphere Advisors LLC lifted its holdings in Alibaba Group by 2.2% during the 3rd quarter. Bluesphere Advisors LLC now owns 3,023 shares of the specialty retailer's stock valued at $540,000 after purchasing an additional 64 shares during the last quarter. Richardson Financial Services Inc. lifted its holdings in Alibaba Group by 34.4% during the 3rd quarter. Richardson Financial Services Inc. now owns 254 shares of the specialty retailer's stock valued at $45,000 after purchasing an additional 65 shares during the last quarter. Transcend Capital Advisors LLC lifted its holdings in Alibaba Group by 1.0% during the 3rd quarter. Transcend Capital Advisors LLC now owns 6,661 shares of the specialty retailer's stock valued at $1,191,000 after purchasing an additional 66 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Bleakley Financial Group LLC lifted its holdings in Alibaba Group by 0.4% during the 4th quarter. Bleakley Financial Group LLC now owns 16,420 shares of the specialty retailer's stock valued at $2,407,000 after purchasing an additional 67 shares during the last quarter. 13.47% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Trending Headlines about Alibaba Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Alibaba Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: BNP Paribas initiated coverage with an “Outperform” rating and a $209 price target, a high‑profile bullish signal that supports upside expectations if execution continues. Analyst initiates Alibaba stock with a Street-high price target
• Positive Sentiment: Enterprise AI traction: Accio Work has reportedly been deployed by ~230,000 online stores within a month, indicating rapid adoption of Alibaba’s AI tools that can drive higher monetization of its ecosystem over time. Alibaba's Accio Work Now Powers 230,000 Online Stores Globally
• Positive Sentiment: AI product rollout: coverage and commentary around the new HappyHorse AI model and developer access (via partners) strengthen Alibaba’s generative AI positioning — a growth narrative investors favor. As Alibaba Rolls Out the Happy Horse AI Model, Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold BABA Stock?
• Positive Sentiment: Asset‑unlock catalyst: Hong Kong exchange approval and reports of plans to list Cainiao/warehouse parks as an infrastructure REIT (Shenzhen/HK) could materially re-rate parts of the business by crystallizing value. Alibaba Gets Hong Kong Exchange Approval to Spin off Infrastructure REIT Alibaba’s plan to list Cainiao logistics hub will ‘unlock’ value
• Neutral Sentiment: Upcoming earnings: Alibaba will report Q4 / FY2026 results on May 13 — a key near‑term event that could amplify moves in either direction based on revenue/GPM and cloud/AI commentary. Alibaba Group Will Announce March Quarter 2026 and Full Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 13, 2026
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst cuts: Erste Group trimmed FY2026 and FY2027 EPS forecasts (FY2026 to $4.16, FY2027 to $6.37) and maintains a Hold — fresh downward revisions that can weigh on sentiment and price/valuation multiples.
• Negative Sentiment: Portfolio trimming & rotation: reports of portfolio cuts and defensive reshuffling at some funds contribute selling pressure and signal reduced appetite among certain institutional holders. Alibaba among stocks cut as portfolio gets reshaped
• Negative Sentiment: Domestic e‑commerce sluggishness: analysis highlighting continued weakness in Alibaba’s core China commerce business keeps a ceiling on re‑rating until clearer recovery or outsized growth elsewhere. Is Now The Right Time To Consider Alibaba Group Holding After Recent Share Weakness?

Alibaba Group Company Profile

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is a Chinese multinational conglomerate founded in 1999 in Hangzhou, China, by Jack Ma and a group of co‑founders. The company built its business around internet-based commerce and related services and has grown into one of the largest e-commerce and technology companies in the world. Alibaba completed a high‑profile initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange in 2014.

The company operates a portfolio of online marketplaces and platforms serving different customer segments: Alibaba.com for global and domestic B2B trade, Taobao for consumer-to-consumer shopping, and Tmall for brand and retailer storefronts targeted at Chinese consumers.

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