American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) Issues Q4 2026 Earnings Guidance

Key Points

• American Airlines issued a weak profitability outlook: The company expects a fourth-quarter 2026 EPS loss of $0.50 to $1.10 and updated full-year guidance to a loss of $1.00 to $1.60 per share.
• Revenue guidance exceeded expectations: Fourth-quarter revenue is projected at $16.7 billion to $17.1 billion, above the $16.5 billion consensus estimate, despite ongoing pressure from elevated fuel costs.
• Analyst sentiment remains mixed: Morgan Stanley and UBS lowered their price targets, while the broader analyst consensus is “Hold” with a $17.29 price target; AAL recently traded near $12.03.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL - Get Free Report) issued an update on its fourth quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Friday morning. The company provided EPS guidance of -1.100--0.500 for the period, compared to the consensus estimate of -0.410. The company issued revenue guidance of $16.7 billion-$17.1 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $16.5 billion. American Airlines Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to -1.600--1.000 EPS.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

Several equities analysts recently commented on AAL shares. Morgan Stanley decreased their price target on shares of American Airlines Group from $24.00 to $22.00 and set an "overweight" rating on the stock in a research note on Friday. UBS Group cut their price objective on shares of American Airlines Group from $17.00 to $16.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a report on Friday, October 16th. Weiss Ratings upgraded shares of American Airlines Group from a "sell (d)" rating to a "sell (d+)" rating in a research report on Thursday, October 8th. Wall Street Zen cut shares of American Airlines Group from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating in a report on Saturday, October 10th. Finally, Citigroup lowered their target price on shares of American Airlines Group from $22.00 to $19.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a report on Friday, July 24th. Eight equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, ten have assigned a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus price target of $17.29.

American Airlines Group Stock Performance

AAL opened at $12.03 on Friday. American Airlines Group has a 52-week low of $10.09 and a 52-week high of $18.79. The firm has a market cap of $7.96 billion, a P/E ratio of -24.56 and a beta of 1.37. The business's fifty day moving average is $13.13 and its 200-day moving average is $13.93.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, October 22nd. The airline reported ($0.28) EPS for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.36) by $0.08. The business had revenue of $16.34 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $16.21 billion. American Airlines Group had a negative return on equity of 9.11% and a negative net margin of 0.56%. American Airlines Group's revenue for the quarter was up 19.3% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm earned ($0.17) earnings per share. On average, research analysts predict that American Airlines Group will post -0.94 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Insider Buying and Selling at American Airlines Group

In other news, SVP Angela Owens sold 40,077 shares of the company's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, July 31st. The shares were sold at an average price of $15.26, for a total transaction of $611,575.02. Following the completion of the sale, the senior vice president owned 178,799 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $2,728,472.74. This represents a 18.31% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Company insiders own 0.70% of the company's stock.

Trending Headlines about American Airlines Group

Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Record revenue and an earnings beat: Third-quarter revenue rose 19.3% year over year to $16.34 billion, exceeding estimates of $16.21 billion. The adjusted loss of $0.28 per share was narrower than the expected $0.36 loss, helped by premium demand and continued revenue growth. American sets new revenue records amid historic fuel cost pressure
• Positive Sentiment: Revenue outlook remains resilient: American’s fourth-quarter revenue guidance midpoint of $16.94 billion was reportedly above analyst expectations, suggesting strong demand and pricing momentum even as profitability remains pressured.
• Positive Sentiment: Morgan Stanley remains constructive: The firm maintained an “overweight” rating on AAL, though it reduced its price target from $24 to $22. The revised target still implies substantial upside from recent levels.
• Neutral Sentiment: Industry-wide fare increases may help offset costs: U.S. airlines are favoring higher fares over fuller planes as fuel expenses squeeze margins, potentially supporting American’s revenue but risking demand weakness. US airlines favor higher fares over fuller planes as fuel costs squeeze profits
• Negative Sentiment: Fuel costs are overwhelming revenue gains: Fuel expense increased roughly 67.5%, or $1.9 billion, year over year, contributing to a $182 million adjusted quarterly loss. Management cited historically high fuel prices as the main challenge.
• Negative Sentiment: Profit outlook deteriorated: American expects an adjusted fourth-quarter loss of approximately $0.50 to $1.10 per share and now anticipates a full-year 2026 loss. This weaker outlook initially pressured the stock despite the quarterly revenue beat. American Airlines forecasts 2026 loss as fuel costs outpace fare gains
• Negative Sentiment: Bearish options activity: Traders purchased an unusually large volume of AAL put options, indicating increased hedging or downside speculation around fuel prices and the company’s earnings outlook.

About American Airlines Group

American Airlines Group Inc is a holding company whose principal subsidiary, American Airlines, provides scheduled passenger air transportation and air cargo services. The company operates a large mainline network under the American Airlines brand and offers regional service through carriers operating as American Eagle. Its services include domestic and international flights, connecting passengers through a network of hubs and focus cities.

American Airlines serves destinations throughout the United States, as well as markets in Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, Central and South America, Europe, Asia and other international regions.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to contact@marketbeat.com.