Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) Shares Down 17.6% - Time to Sell?

Key Points

• Moderna shares fell 17.6% to $202.63 on unusually heavy volume after partial melanoma-vaccine data triggered a “sell-the-news” reaction and briefly halted trading.
• Phase 3 results for Moderna and Merck’s individualized mRNA cancer vaccine showed meaningful improvements in melanoma outcomes, while Moderna also advanced a bird-flu vaccine into late-stage trials, supporting its broader pipeline.
• Despite the positive developments, valuation and litigation concerns remain: analysts’ consensus rating is Hold with a $103.95 target price, and a law firm is investigating potential securities-law violations related to the data disclosure.

Shares of Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA - Get Free Report) dropped 17.6% on Thursday. The company traded as low as $180.80 and last traded at $202.63. Approximately 49,580,747 shares were traded during trading, an increase of 293% from the average daily volume of 12,600,001 shares. The stock had previously closed at $245.81.

Trending Headlines about Moderna

Here are the key news stories impacting Moderna this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Moderna and Merck reported positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 results for intismeran autogene, an individualized mRNA cancer vaccine used with Keytruda. The treatment produced clinically meaningful improvements in recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival in melanoma patients, supporting the potential value of Moderna’s oncology pipeline. Merck and Moderna INTerpath-001 results
• Positive Sentiment: Moderna advanced its mRNA bird-flu vaccine into a late-stage clinical trial, adding another potential growth opportunity beyond COVID-19. The company also recently expanded its respiratory portfolio with RSV, flu and combination vaccines. Moderna bird-flu vaccine trial
• Neutral Sentiment: Moderna’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 increased visibility and may support index-related demand, but the stock’s strong recent run left it vulnerable to profit-taking when new information failed to deliver a clear upside surprise. Moderna Nasdaq-100 inclusion
• Negative Sentiment: The premature release of partial melanoma-vaccine data triggered a “sell-the-news” retreat. Trading was briefly halted because of volatility, and investors focused on the possibility that the results, while positive, were already reflected in Moderna’s elevated valuation. Reuters report on Moderna cancer-vaccine data
• Negative Sentiment: A law firm announced an investigation into potential securities-law violations related to the company’s October 22 disclosure, adding headline and litigation risk, although no wrongdoing has been established. Moderna investigation coverage

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

A number of equities analysts have issued reports on MRNA shares. TD Cowen reaffirmed a "buy" rating on shares of Moderna in a research note on Wednesday. Royal Bank Of Canada reiterated a "sector perform" rating and set a $130.00 target price on shares of Moderna in a research report on Wednesday, August 19th. Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded Moderna from a "neutral" rating to a "sell" rating and increased their price target for the company from $40.00 to $81.00 in a research note on Thursday, September 3rd. Singular Research raised Moderna to a "hold" rating in a research note on Wednesday, September 23rd. Finally, Citigroup lowered Moderna from a "neutral" rating to a "sell" rating and raised their price target for the stock from $60.00 to $80.00 in a research report on Wednesday, September 30th. Seven investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, fourteen have given a Hold rating and four have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has a consensus rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $103.95.

Moderna Trading Down 17.6%

The stock has a market cap of $80.90 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -25.36 and a beta of 1.09. The company has a quick ratio of 2.18, a current ratio of 2.29 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. The business's 50 day simple moving average is $167.27 and its 200 day simple moving average is $95.16.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Friday, July 31st. The company reported ($1.97) earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($2.03) by $0.06. Moderna had a negative net margin of 141.43% and a negative return on equity of 28.30%. The company had revenue of $145.00 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $102.93 million. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned ($2.13) earnings per share. The company's revenue was up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. On average, research analysts expect that Moderna, Inc. will post -6.11 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other news, CFO James M. Mock sold 34,836 shares of Moderna stock in a transaction dated Thursday, September 10th. The stock was sold at an average price of $134.49, for a total value of $4,685,093.64. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief financial officer directly owned 59,375 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $7,985,343.75. This trade represents a 36.98% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, President Stephen Hoge sold 39,145 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Thursday, October 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $220.72, for a total transaction of $8,640,084.40. Following the transaction, the president owned 1,636,565 shares in the company, valued at $361,222,626.80. The trade was a 2.34% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders have sold 197,251 shares of company stock worth $33,875,904 in the last 90 days. Insiders own 10.80% of the company's stock.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Western Pacific Wealth Management LP bought a new position in shares of Moderna during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $29,000. Fortitude Family Office LLC increased its position in shares of Moderna by 53.1% during the third quarter. Fortitude Family Office LLC now owns 222 shares of the company's stock valued at $43,000 after acquiring an additional 77 shares during the last quarter. Allied Private Wealth LLC bought a new stake in Moderna during the second quarter worth $30,000. Archer Investment Corp bought a new stake in Moderna during the second quarter worth $36,000. Finally, Canton Hathaway LLC purchased a new position in Moderna in the first quarter worth $31,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 75.33% of the company's stock.

Moderna Company Profile

Moderna, Inc is a biotechnology company that develops medicines and vaccines using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. Its platform is designed to instruct cells to produce proteins that can stimulate immune responses or support the treatment of disease. The company's research programs span infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune conditions and other therapeutic areas.

Moderna's commercial products include Spikevax, an mRNA vaccine for COVID-19, and mRESVIA, an mRNA vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in older adults.

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