Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) Trading 8.5% Higher - Time to Buy?

Key Points

• Moderna shares jumped 8.5% to $158.07 on heavy trading volume, extending a sharp month-long rally driven primarily by optimism over its Phase 3 personalized cancer vaccine developed with Merck’s Keytruda.
• Analyst upgrades and institutional buying have strengthened the bullish narrative, but the consensus rating remains “Hold” with an average price target of $76.72, well below the current share price.
• Key risks include continued losses and declining COVID-19 vaccine revenue, while insider selling has added some pressure; however, the reported transactions were executed under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plans.

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA - Get Free Report)'s stock price was up 8.5% during mid-day trading on Thursday . The company traded as high as $161.96 and last traded at $158.07. 19,084,286 shares were traded during mid-day trading, an increase of 64% from the average daily volume of 11,611,695 shares. The stock had previously closed at $145.62.

Moderna News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Moderna this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Moderna’s Phase 3 success for intismeran autogene, its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine being developed with Merck’s Keytruda, remains the primary catalyst. Investors view the program as a potential long-term growth engine that could help offset declining COVID-19 vaccine revenue. Moderna cancer vaccine rally
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst upgrades and higher price targets have added momentum, reinforcing the view that Moderna may be transitioning from a COVID-focused vaccine company into a broader mRNA medicines and oncology business. Why Moderna stock is surging
• Positive Sentiment: The cancer-vaccine trade has extended a sharp month-long rally, with investors continuing to buy the stock even without a new company disclosure Thursday. The move suggests strong enthusiasm for the clinical opportunity, though it also increases expectations for future trial and regulatory progress. Moderna cancer vaccine momentum
• Neutral Sentiment: Speculation that Merck could eventually acquire Moderna has increased the strategic appeal of the partnership, but no acquisition has been announced. Investors should treat this as speculation rather than a confirmed catalyst.
• Negative Sentiment: Moderna President Stephen Hoge sold 40,294 shares for approximately $5.8 million, following a separate sale of 40,281 shares. Both transactions were executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plan, which reduces their significance as discretionary bearish signals, but insider selling can still weigh on sentiment. Moderna SEC insider sale filing

Analysts Set New Price Targets

Several equities research analysts have issued reports on MRNA shares. CLSA raised shares of Moderna to an "outperform" rating in a research note on Friday, August 28th. Citigroup raised their target price on shares of Moderna from $41.00 to $60.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research note on Monday, August 3rd. Loop Capital set a $135.00 price target on Moderna in a report on Wednesday, August 19th. Piper Sandler restated an "overweight" rating on shares of Moderna in a report on Monday, August 3rd. Finally, Barclays upped their price objective on shares of Moderna from $48.00 to $125.00 and gave the company an "equal weight" rating in a report on Monday, August 24th. Seven investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, twelve have given a Hold rating and five have issued a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus price target of $76.72.

Moderna Stock Up 8.5%

The company has a market capitalization of $63.11 billion, a PE ratio of -19.78 and a beta of 1.10. The company has a current ratio of 2.29, a quick ratio of 2.18 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. The business has a fifty day moving average of $96.37 and a 200 day moving average of $68.84.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Friday, July 31st. The company reported ($1.97) EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($2.03) by $0.06. Moderna had a negative net margin of 141.43% and a negative return on equity of 28.30%. The company had revenue of $145.00 million during the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $102.93 million. During the same quarter last year, the company posted ($2.13) EPS. The firm's revenue was up 2.1% compared to the same quarter last year. Equities research analysts anticipate that Moderna, Inc. will post -6.09 EPS for the current year.

Insider Activity at Moderna

In related news, President Stephen Hoge sold 40,281 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, September 15th. The stock was sold at an average price of $146.07, for a total transaction of $5,883,845.67. Following the transaction, the president owned 1,562,029 shares of the company's stock, valued at $228,165,576.03. This trade represents a 2.51% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CFO James M. Mock sold 34,836 shares of the business's stock in a transaction dated Thursday, September 10th. The shares were sold at an average price of $134.49, for a total value of $4,685,093.64. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief financial officer owned 59,375 shares in the company, valued at $7,985,343.75. This trade represents a 36.98% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders sold a total of 118,882 shares of company stock valued at $16,862,280 in the last three months. 10.80% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the stock. BlackRock Inc. purchased a new position in Moderna during the 2nd quarter worth $2,142,877,000. Capital World Investors acquired a new position in shares of Moderna during the fourth quarter worth about $378,299,000. Theleme Partners LLP purchased a new position in Moderna during the second quarter worth about $564,272,000. Norges Bank acquired a new stake in Moderna in the fourth quarter valued at about $79,707,000. Finally, Wellington Management Group LLP boosted its holdings in Moderna by 4.4% in the 2nd quarter. Wellington Management Group LLP now owns 2,461,574 shares of the company's stock valued at $172,384,000 after purchasing an additional 103,977 shares in the last quarter. 75.33% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Moderna Company Profile

Moderna, Inc is a biotechnology company that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines and vaccines. Its platform is designed to provide cells with instructions to produce proteins that may help prevent or treat infectious diseases, cancer and other medical conditions.

The company's commercial products include Spikevax, an mRNA vaccine for COVID-19, and mRESVIA, an mRNA vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in older adults. Moderna also maintains a pipeline of investigational programs in areas such as seasonal influenza, cytomegalovirus, oncology and rare diseases.

Founded in 2010 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Moderna serves markets in the United States and internationally through regulatory approvals, commercial partnerships and distribution arrangements.

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