Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) Stock Price Down 1.7% - Time to Sell?

Key Points

• Valero’s third-quarter results significantly exceeded expectations: Adjusted EPS reached $23.90 versus the $21.17 consensus, while revenue rose 43.3% year over year to $46.10 billion and net income increased to approximately $6.8 billion.
• Strong refining margins and cash generation support the outlook. Tight fuel inventories drove a near-tripling in refining margins, while roughly $9.8 billion in cash provides flexibility for dividends and balance-sheet strength.
• Analyst sentiment is broadly positive but valuation risks remain. Several firms raised price targets and the stock has a “Moderate Buy” consensus, though TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating and cautioned that margins could normalize amid lower throughput and pressure to reduce fuel prices.

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO - Get Free Report) shares fell 1.7% on Friday. The company traded as low as $416.56 and last traded at $419.1860. Approximately 2,377,074 shares changed hands during trading, a decline of 28% from the average session volume of 3,294,004 shares. The stock had previously closed at $426.28.

Key Stories Impacting Valero Energy

Here are the key news stories impacting Valero Energy this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Record earnings significantly exceeded expectations. Valero reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $23.90, above the approximately $21.17 consensus, while revenue rose 43.3% year over year to $46.10 billion. Net income climbed to roughly $6.8 billion from $1.1 billion a year earlier. Valero Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Refining economics remain highly favorable. Refining margins nearly tripled year over year as fuel inventories stayed tight, supporting stronger profits even with lower throughput. Management also indicated that fuel margins could rise again, while renewable diesel and ethanol operations improved and ethanol production reached a record. Valero Q3 Earnings Surge Sixfold to $6.8 Billion on Refining Boom
• Positive Sentiment: Analysts raised several price targets. Barclays increased its target to $443 and Wells Fargo raised its target to $489, with both maintaining overweight ratings. Citi also lifted its target to $490, although it retained a neutral rating. Analyst price-target updates
• Neutral Sentiment: Strong cash generation improves financial flexibility. The earnings call highlighted approximately $9.8 billion in cash and disciplined capital spending, which support dividends and balance-sheet resilience. However, comparisons with Phillips 66 show that crude sourcing, diversification and valuation remain important differentiators among refiners. Valero Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Refining and Cash Strength
• Negative Sentiment: One analyst remains cautious on valuation and margin sustainability. TD Cowen raised its target to $400 but kept a hold rating, placing its target below the recent trading level. Lower throughput and the potential for government efforts to reduce fuel prices also underscore the risk that unusually strong refining margins may normalize. Valero Energy Q3 Results Show Record Ethanol Production, Strong Profits

Analyst Ratings Changes

A number of brokerages have issued reports on VLO. Piper Sandler raised their price objective on shares of Valero Energy from $329.00 to $435.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research note on Thursday, September 3rd. Barclays upped their target price on shares of Valero Energy from $441.00 to $443.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research report on Friday. Wells Fargo & Company increased their price target on Valero Energy from $485.00 to $489.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research note on Friday. Mizuho raised their price target on Valero Energy from $300.00 to $434.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research report on Thursday, October 8th. Finally, Weiss Ratings raised Valero Energy from a "buy (b)" rating to a "buy (b+)" rating in a research note on Thursday, October 8th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nine have issued a Buy rating, eight have given a Hold rating and two have issued a Sell rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat, Valero Energy currently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $379.94.

Valero Energy Stock Down 1.7%

The firm has a market capitalization of $120.70 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.39, a P/E/G ratio of 0.26 and a beta of 0.59. The business's 50-day moving average is $391.47 and its two-hundred day moving average is $309.38. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37, a quick ratio of 1.23 and a current ratio of 1.64.

Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO - Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, October 22nd. The oil and gas company reported $23.90 earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $21.17 by $2.73. The business had revenue of $46.10 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $42.71 billion. Valero Energy had a net margin of 5.17% and a return on equity of 26.74%. Valero Energy's quarterly revenue was up 43.3% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter last year, the firm earned $3.66 EPS. On average, equities analysts anticipate that Valero Energy Corporation will post 52.55 earnings per share for the current year.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Valero Energy

Hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the company. Bank of America Corp DE increased its position in shares of Valero Energy by 11.4% in the 1st quarter. Bank of America Corp DE now owns 5,033,310 shares of the oil and gas company's stock valued at $1,243,630,000 after buying an additional 516,975 shares in the last quarter. Bank of New York Mellon Corp lifted its holdings in Valero Energy by 9.4% during the first quarter. Bank of New York Mellon Corp now owns 2,969,320 shares of the oil and gas company's stock worth $733,660,000 after acquiring an additional 254,604 shares in the last quarter. Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership lifted its holdings in Valero Energy by 18.4% during the first quarter. Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership now owns 2,842,339 shares of the oil and gas company's stock worth $702,285,000 after acquiring an additional 442,177 shares in the last quarter. Amundi lifted its holdings in Valero Energy by 45.3% during the first quarter. Amundi now owns 2,584,976 shares of the oil and gas company's stock worth $638,695,000 after acquiring an additional 806,018 shares in the last quarter. Finally, UBS AM a distinct business unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC grew its stake in Valero Energy by 33.9% in the second quarter. UBS AM a distinct business unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC now owns 2,058,341 shares of the oil and gas company's stock valued at $536,074,000 after acquiring an additional 520,642 shares during the period. 78.69% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Valero Energy Company Profile

Valero Energy Corporation is an international energy company headquartered in San Antonio, Texas. The company's primary business is refining and marketing transportation fuels, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products used by commercial, industrial and consumer customers.

Valero operates refineries in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. Its refining operations also produce asphalt, petrochemical feedstocks and other petroleum-based products. The company markets fuel through wholesale channels and branded retail networks, including Valero, Beacon and Shamrock-branded locations.

In addition to conventional refining, Valero has businesses focused on renewable fuels.

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