What WEC Energy Group (WEC) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Key Points

• WEC Energy raised its 2026 earnings guidance to $5.60–$5.64 per diluted share after third-quarter earnings rose to $1.18 per share from $0.83 a year earlier, supported by weather, rate-base growth and operating efficiency.
• The company unveiled a significantly larger $47.5 billion 2027–2031 capital plan, targeting 7%–9% or more annual EPS growth. Investment will focus on natural-gas generation, transmission, distribution, renewables and battery storage.
• Data-center demand is driving much of the expansion, with forecast electricity demand growth increasing to 4.9 gigawatts through 2031, particularly from Microsoft and Oracle-related developments in Wisconsin. WEC expects large customers to cover their energy and infrastructure costs while supporting grid investments.

WEC Energy Group NYSE: WEC reported third-quarter 2026 earnings of $1.18 per diluted share, up from $0.83 per share a year earlier, as warmer-than-normal weather, capital-plan execution and operating efficiency supported results.

Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Scott Lauber said the company raised and narrowed its full-year 2026 earnings guidance to $5.60 to $5.64 per share, assuming normal weather for the rest of the year. The prior range was $5.51 to $5.61 per share. The updated outlook represents 7.7% earnings-per-share growth from the midpoint of the company’s 2025 adjusted guidance, Lauber said.

The company also unveiled a $47.5 billion capital plan for 2027 through 2031, an increase of $10 billion, or more than 26%, from its previous five-year plan. WEC expects the investment program to support asset-base growth at a 13.4% compound annual rate and earnings-per-share growth of 7% to 9% or more through 2031, measured from the midpoint of its original 2026 guidance.

Data-center demand drives expanded investment plan

Lauber said WEC now forecasts electric demand growth of 4.9 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, 1 gigawatt more than in its prior plan. The increase is tied largely to demand from very large customers, including data-center development in Wisconsin.

Microsoft is continuing to expand its data-center complex in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin, where its first facility is operating and additional facilities are under construction. WEC is preparing to serve 3.2 gigawatts of forecasted demand in the I-94 corridor south of Milwaukee through 2031, an increase of 600 megawatts from the prior plan. The plan also includes an additional 400 megawatts associated with another customer, although Lauber said details were still forthcoming.

North of Milwaukee, Vantage Data Centers is building facilities for Oracle on about 1,900 acres. WEC currently forecasts 1.3 gigawatts of demand for the Vantage site through 2031, with the potential to reach 3.5 gigawatts over time. Lauber said Oracle had met financial-security obligations under Wisconsin’s very large customer tariff.

WEC’s American Transmission Company has refiled a proposal with the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin to support the Vantage project. The filing includes a transmission line and an eSTATCOM system intended to help maintain grid reliability. Lauber said he did not expect the filing process to delay Oracle’s project timeline and estimated construction of the line could take about 12 to 15 months after approval.

The company said its very large customer tariff is designed to ensure large customers pay their full share of energy and infrastructure costs, while protecting other customers from subsidizing those investments. Lauber also said Oracle agreed to subscribe to a portion of the energy purchased from the Point Beach Nuclear Power Plant, a step WEC expects will save customers an estimated $300 million in fuel costs. Full details are expected to be submitted to Wisconsin regulators in coming months.

Generation, transmission and distribution spending increases

The expanded capital plan is weighted toward regulated electric generation and transmission projects. WEC plans to invest an incremental $6.8 billion in modern natural-gas generation compared with its prior plan, including a combined-cycle turbine project expected online by the end of the forecast period, combustion turbines and upgrades to existing facilities.

The company increased planned renewable generation and battery-storage investments by $1.1 billion. Planned battery-storage investment increased by $3 billion, while planned solar and wind investment declined by $1.9 billion, partly because some work was completed in 2026.

WEC also reached an agreement with NextEra, subject to regulatory approval, to extend for 20 years its purchase-power agreement for about 1,000 megawatts of carbon-free baseload capacity from the Point Beach nuclear plant.

American Transmission Company is expected to invest about $5.3 billion between 2027 and 2031, up $1.2 billion from the prior plan. The broader plan includes an additional $1 billion for electric and natural-gas distribution infrastructure, including continued investment in the pipe-retirement program in Chicago. Lauber said WEC expects Illinois pipe-retirement spending to ramp to roughly $500 million annually beginning around 2028.

Quarterly drivers and financing outlook

Chief Financial Officer Xia Liu said utility operations contributed $0.28 of the year-over-year quarterly earnings increase. Weather contributed about $0.05, while rate-base growth added $0.19, including $0.15 from incremental allowance for funds used during construction equity and cash returns from projects under construction. About 80% of those incremental returns came from projects for very large customers, Liu said.

Favorable day-to-day operations and maintenance expense contributed $0.08, primarily due to the company’s stock-based plan, which Liu said could reflect timing. Those gains were partly offset by higher depreciation and amortization, interest expense, taxes and other items.

Weather-normal retail electric sales increased 4.1% from a year earlier, driven by very large customers. Excluding those customers and an iron ore mine, sales rose 0.4%. WEC continues to expect weather-normalized electric sales for the full year to be relatively flat with 2025.

For the five-year plan, WEC expects to generate $26 billion to $27 billion in cash from operations, raise $19 billion through incremental debt including hybrid instruments, and issue $5 billion to $5.5 billion of common equity. Liu said common-equity needs are expected to remain relatively flat despite the larger capital plan because projects entering service and current cash returns from large customers should increase operating cash flow.

WEC raised approximately $1.16 billion of common equity during the first nine months of 2026, including $1.1 billion through its at-the-market program. The company expects equity issuance to be somewhat front-loaded as projects remain under construction early in the planning period.

Lauber said WEC expects to provide its 2027 earnings guidance and dividend plan in December. The company anticipates dividend growth of 6.5% to 7%, with a projected payout ratio of 60% to 70% as earnings grow faster.

About WEC Energy Group (NYSE:WEC)

WEC Energy Group, Inc is an energy holding company headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Through its operating companies, the company generates and delivers electricity and provides natural gas distribution, storage and related energy services to residential, commercial and industrial customers.

WEC Energy's principal utility businesses include We Energies and Wisconsin Public Service in Wisconsin, Michigan Gas Utilities, Minnesota Energy Resources, Upper Michigan Energy Resources and North Dakota utility operations.

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