Amazon: Why The Great Comeback Rally Could Be About to Begin

Key Points

• Amazon beat revenue and earnings estimates, with strong AWS growth supporting profitability.
• Analyst sentiment remains bullish, with price targets suggesting almost 50% upside from here.
• The stock is up 17% from April’s low, with technicals now flashing bullish momentum signals.

Amazon.com Inc NASDAQ: AMZN closed out last week just under the $190 mark, following a much-anticipated earnings report that, while beating expectations on both revenue and EPS, came with cautious guidance that initially held shares back from breaking higher.

Still, the stock’s price action into the weekend told a different story. After a brief dip on Friday morning, Amazon rebounded and ended the session strong, finishing near the day’s high. That kind of reversal is often a sign that buyers are stepping in, and with shares still down more than 20% from February’s all-time high, the setup is starting to look compelling.

Here are three reasons Amazon could be gearing up for a serious comeback rally in the weeks ahead.

Amazon Smashed Analyst Expectations

Q1 results were solid across the board. Revenue was up nearly 9% year-over-year, easily beating consensus estimates by $580 million, while their GAAP EPS print was also hot. The core Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, the company’s most profitable, posted 17% year-over-year growth, despite headwinds from tariffs and broader macro uncertainty.

Importantly, operating income rose 221% from the same quarter a year ago, another sign of Amazon’s improving profitability story. Even with the company facing pressures from foreign exchange impacts and evolving global trade policy, the ability to post numbers like these shows why Amazon continues to stand out in big tech.

The company also reaffirmed its commitment to scale advantages and speed, cornerstones of its retail dominance, which helped it emerge stronger from past periods of uncertainty. For investors, it’s clear that Amazon continues to execute at a high level, and Wall Street has taken note.

Analysts Are Overwhelmingly Bullish

One of the strongest signals for potential upside is the sheer volume of bullish analyst activity. Throughout April and into early May, firms like UBS, Oppenheimer, and Goldman Sachs all reiterated their Buy or Overweight ratings on the stock.

Last Friday alone, the likes of Royal Bank of Canada and Piper Sandler issued bullish calls, too, with fresh price targets ranging up to $280, implying as much as a 45% upside from current levels.

Even analysts who trimmed their targets slightly, such as Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney, continue to see Amazon as their top large-cap pick. Their thesis hinges on AWS accelerating into the back half of the year, helped by easing supply constraints and rising demand for AI-related infrastructure.

Add in potential Prime subscription price increases and a growing monetization opportunity for Alexa and Project Kuiper, and you have a long list of tailwinds supporting the bull case.

It’s also worth noting that Amazon’s valuation remains compelling relative to other mega-cap tech names. With a forward P/E still sitting below historical averages and below many peers, the case for multiple expansion is easy to make if sentiment improves and momentum kicks in.

Technicals Suggest the Tide May Be Turning

Like with other tech giants, from a technical perspective, Amazon’s recent performance is encouraging. Shares have now rebounded 17% from their early-April multi-year low, and more importantly, they’ve been putting in a series of higher highs and higher lows. That pattern, especially after a long downtrend, often signals a change in momentum.

The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed steadily out of oversold territory, and the MACD has shown consistent bullish signals since the bottom of April. Volume on up days has also been noticeably stronger than on down days, which supports the case that institutional buyers are starting to rebuild positions.

Combine these technical developments with Amazon’s strong earnings print and analyst support, and you’re looking at a stock that could be coiling for a breakout.

One Note of Caution

Despite all this optimism, Amazon’s guidance for the current quarter was cautious, and that’s something investors need to watch. Management forecasted Q2 revenue of $159 to $164 billion, roughly in line with consensus but at the lower end.

While those explanations are reasonable, they may not be enough to inspire immediate confidence among more skeptical investors, especially given how long it’s taken for the stock to regain its footing. 

If Amazon fails to build on its current momentum over the next few sessions, it could signal that Wall Street is still hesitant to fully reprice the stock higher.