AST SpaceMobile Jumps 9% After Government Contract Announcement

Key Points

• AST SpaceMobile has secured a $30 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) for the HALO Europa Program, marking the first-ever prime contract for its defense subsidiary and solidifying its role as a key government contractor.
• While the company has seen a one-year stock gain of over 200% and massive year-over-year revenue growth, experts question its ability to meet ambitious goals, including the launch of 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites by the end of 2026.
• Despite heavy institutional investment, Wall Street remains cautious with a consensus Reduce rating and high short interest (over 16%), as analysts weigh recent earnings misses against the company's expanding portfolio of strategic and military partnerships.

Shares of SpaceX rival and communication services upstart AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS have gained more than 9% since announcing that the company was awarded a $30 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) for the HALO Europa Program.  

The news is the latest in a series of contracts AST SpaceMobile has received, which in one manner or another have fueled a roller coaster ride to a one-year gain of more than 200%. 

The Midland, Texas-based aerospace firm continues its ambitious pursuit of developing a space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect standard mobile phones and other devices directly to its low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites.

The latest federal agreement, announced on Monday, Feb. 23, marks the first-ever prime contract for AST SpaceMobile USA, the company’s wholly owned defense subsidiary. 

AST SpaceMobile Is Emerging as a Massive Government Contractor

Despite existing strategic partnerships with companies including Verizon Communications NYSE: VZ, AT&T NYSE: T, Vodafone Group NASDAQ: VOD, Japanese tech conglomerate Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNY, real estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMT, and BCE NYSE: BCE, one of Canada’s largest telecommunications and media companies, AST SpaceMobile’s increased role as a federal government contractor is positioning the firm as a premier government contractor. 

Details of this latest pact, awarded by the SDA, highlight the appeal of AST SpaceMobile’s ability to deliver rapid, direct-to-device tactical communications via its dual-use commercial BlueBird satellite constellation. 

The deal involves the Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions program, aimed at bolstering the Tranche 2 Demonstration and Experimentation System (T2DES) project, which is intended to build up the military’s transport layer of communications and data relay satellites. 

According to Chris Ivory, CEO of AST SpaceMobile USA, the “selection for SDA’s Europa Track 2 program validates AST SpaceMobile’s ability to rapidly operationalize commercial space capabilities for national security.” Ivory added that “by leveraging our existing low Earth orbit dual-use satellite technology, we support the government’s defense efforts, delivering immediate connectivity with our BlueBird satellites and scaling quickly to advanced tactical use cases.”

Previous federal government contracts have proven to be strong short-term catalysts for the company, with AST SpaceMobile seeing shares jump 15% after announcing its previous federal contract with the Pentagon on Jan. 16. 

Lofty Launch Expectations Keep All Eyes on ASTS 

Despite the bullish news, questions remain about the company’s ability to meet its ambitious 2026 launch targets, which include putting 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites into orbit by the end of 2026.

On Jan. 22, the company announced that its next-generation Block 2 BlueBird satellite will be transported by Jeff Bezos-founded Blue Origin’s New Glenn-3 (NG-3) heavy lift rocket, which is expected to deliver the array into LEO “no earlier than late February.”

Blue Origin’s New Glenn-3 will be capable of transporting up to eight of AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird satellites at a time. But in late January, global communications industry publication Light Reading reported that at its current pace, AST SpaceMobile is at risk of missing its 2026 launch target. 

Regardless, the smart money is focused on the longer-term picture. Institutional investors have been on a buying spree, with $3 billion of inflows into ASTS over the past 12 months versus less than $502 million in outflows. But in the short term, analysts appear disinclined to join in the enthusiasm.

How Wall Street Feels About ASTS Going Forward

Of the 12 analysts covering the stock, ASTS receives a consensus Reduce rating, with just three analysts assigning the stock a Buy. The average 12-month price target of $52.94 implies more than 38% potential downside from today’s share price. 

Meanwhile, current short interest remains robust at more than 16%, or nearly 41 million shares of the 367 million shares outstanding.

That figure marks a 3.4% increase over the previous month and, at $4.54 billion, represents the highest dollar value of shares shorted since the company went public on April 7, 2021. 

But AST SpaceMobile’s next earnings report, which is slated for Monday, March 2, could serve as a short-term catalyst that counters short sellers’ bearishness.

When the company last reported, it announced a Q3 2025 earnings miss—its third consecutive miss—alongside a sizable revenue miss of $14.74 million against analyst expectations of $22.04 million. 

However, year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 was an astounding 1,239.91%, suggesting that the company’s numerous government contracts and strategic corporate partnerships are beginning to bear fruit.