Freeport-McMoRan: What the Future Could Hold After a 70% Rebound

Key Points

• Freeport-McMoRan has staged a major rebound since the September 2025 Grasberg disruption, with shares up sharply after the post-guidance selloff.
• Q4 results beat on revenue and EPS, but the stock still dipped—suggesting expectations and positioning may be elevated after the rally.
• The next leg for FCX hinges on copper: forecasts look mixed near term, but constructive long term, and Freeport’s cash flow is highly sensitive to price swings.

After disaster struck copper mining giant Freeport-McMoRan NYSE: FCX in September of 2025, the stock has gone on a massive rally. The company significantly lowered its guidance on September 25, 2025, after assessing the impact of a mudslide at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. This caused shares to tank approximately 22% in two days. Since MarketBeat highlighted the potential in FCX after this fall, shares are up approximately 72% as of the Jan. 26 close.

However, with such a strong run-up in shares, it’s worth reassessing the potential in Freeport-McMoRan stock going forward. The company’s latest earnings and copper price projections are key factors to consider.

Freeport Falls Despite Strong Beats on Sales and EPS

Freeport released its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings on Jan. 22. Revenue came in at $5.63 billion, a decline of 1.5% versus a year ago. Despite this, the figure exceeded estimates of $5.42 billion, which called for a drop of 5.2%. While production fell greatly due to the Grasberg disruption, soaring copper and gold prices helped keep the company’s revenues stable. Freeport also delivered impressive adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 47 cents, much higher than the 28-cent consensus forecast. The figure increased 52% from a year ago.

Looking further into 2026, Freeport expects to sell 3.4 billion pounds of copper, moderately less than the 3.6 billion pounds sold in 2025. It also sees gold sales at 800,000 ounces, down from 1.07 million ounces in 2025. By 2028, Freeport sees a significant increase in sales versus 2025 levels, forecasting 4.2 billion pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold. The reopening of Freeport's Grasberg mine will help make this rebound possible. The company expects to restore 85% of Grasberg’s production capacity in the second half of 2026. The company will restore the significant majority of its Grasberg capacity over the next year, indicating solid execution on its reopening plans so far.

Despite this strong report, Freeport shares dropped approximately 2.9% on the day of the results. This reaction may simply reflect the large rally that had already taken place in the stock, with the market pricing in these results.

Copper Forecasters Are Bearish Near-Term, Bullish Over the Next +10 Years

The huge increase in copper and gold prices has been one of the main factors aiding Freeport’s rise. Since Sept. 25, 2025, per-pound copper futures are up around 25%, and per-ounce gold futures are up around 34%. The prices of both metals are at or very near their all-time highs. Going forward, movements in these metals will continue to have a huge impact on Freeport shares.

The company is highly leveraged to copper prices, noting that a 10-cent change translates to an approximately $335 million move in its operating cash flow. For reference, copper futures sit near $5.90 per pound. The company projects that $4 copper would lead to an operating cash flow of $8 billion, while $6 copper would lead to an operating cash flow of $14 billion in 2026. This is a huge gap, making copper price forecasts essential to evaluating Freeport’s outlook.

Analysts have mixed projections. Goldman Sachs Research estimates that copper’s fair value is around $11,500 per metric ton. Note that Goldman quotes copper prices in metric tons rather than pounds. That is around 12% below recent prices above $13,000. Goldman bases this forecast on the assumption that the U.S. government will put tariffs on copper. This would “signal an end” to U.S. stockpiling of the metal, which has helped push prices up. Analysts recently interviewed by S&P Global also echo this sentiment.

On the other hand, S&P put out a recent report suggesting that copper supply will fall 25% below demand by 2040. While S&P does not provide a copper price forecast, this dynamic could put significant upward pressure on copper prices long-term. Notably, Goldman is also bullish over an extended period. It sees copper prices hitting $15,000 per metric ton by 2035.

FCX’s Rise Warrants Caution Going Forward

Freeport has gone on an extremely strong run recently. However, copper forecasts indicate that its rally could come under pressure in the near term. Still, the long-term outlook appears constructive. The MarketBeat consensus price target on Freeport, near $57.60, implies 6% downside in shares. Targets updated after the company’s earnings release average $64.60, implying around 6% upside.