Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?

Key Points

• Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
• Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
• However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?

In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna NASDAQ: MRNA just made headlines in 2026. Shares jumped up more than 17% on Jan. 13, Moderna's largest single-day up-move in over three years.

Moderna shares have gotten absolutely crushed as COVID-19’s relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down over 90% from its all-time high—even with the recent bounce.

With the stock in such a deep hole, and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is it possible that Moderna shares have life? 

MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet

The spike in Moderna stock came as the company announced better-than-expected revenue guidance and provided strong cost management data. In 2025, the company said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue—$100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance.

Furthermore, the company forecasted operating expenses about $200 million below its past estimates.

This would lead to the firm’s non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 being between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, around a $2 billion decrease from last year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects its costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027.

Essentially all of Moderna’s sales continue to come from COVID-19 vaccines.

Of the firm’s $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That revenue number looks weak compared to late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter.

As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world’s population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. Clearly, this leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients for Moderna to generate sales. This makes it very hard to see the company shifting toward sustainable growth based solely on its COVID treatments.

However, Moderna expects to generate up to 10% sales growth in 2026. It believes it can generate repeatable COVID-19 booster sales from high-risk individuals and senior citizens.

The company has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year Moderna sees the full-year benefit of these partnerships. Notably, in Q1 2026, the firm expects to generate $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. It is certainly possible that targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government partnerships could establish a solid revenue base for Moderna to move forward.

MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts

Moderna believes its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine. The treatment could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. That would be a major catalyst for the company, adding a second seasonal product aimed at a widespread infection. Securing approval is essential if the firm is going to have a realistic shot at reaching its 2028 goal.

However, for investors to truly get excited about Moderna again, the company will probably need to succeed in categories beyond seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets don’t offer much in the way of long-term growth. Thus, while vaccines provide a potential revenue floor, the company will likely need to gain approval for its oncology or rare disease drug research pipeline.

The company has several candidates in these areas that have pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important drug of this group is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran. Moderna expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026, with Phase Three data possible in late 2026.

Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock.

Overall, uncertainty continues to mar Moderna’s outlook. Whether the company’s COVID-19 vaccine sales will actually bottom is far from guaranteed. 

Furthermore, the company’s long-term future depends significantly on gaining approval in clinical areas where it currently has no approved medications.

The Trump administration has also been critical of mRNA technology, winding down government investments in the area Moderna specializes in, which has only heightened trepidation about future approvals.

At this point, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target underpins this outlook; the near-$30 target implies over 25% downside in the stock.

Seeing a stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand could be a strong prerequisite for becoming more bullish on the stock’s long-term prospects.