MP Materials Stock Soared After Earnings—Here’s the Real Reason

Key Points

• Despite seeing a 15% decline in revenue, MP Materials soared after its Q3 earnings release.
• MP exceeded production guidance, an important step in achieving its long-term objectives.
• The company has made significant progress on its plan to become a vertically integrated producer of permanent magnets.

MP Materials NYSE: MP has gone on quite a wild ride over the past month. 

Shares peaked at just under $99 on Oct. 14. At that time, MP shares were up more than 530% in 2025. 

But, like many high-flying stocks that peaked in mid-October, things turned quickly for this name. By Nov. 6, MP traded at around $52, dropping 47% from its all-time high closing price.

Luckily for shareholders, MP’s Q3 2025 earnings helped stem the stock’s slide. Below, we’ll dive into the key takeaways from MP’s results.

MP’s 15% Sales Drop Is Part of the Plan

MP reported earnings on Nov. 6, and the financials were solid. MP’s revenue came in at approximately $53.6 million. This beat estimates, despite revenue falling by 15%. The company’s adjusted loss per share of 10 cents was also better than the 15-cent loss expected. Given the massive rise in MP shares, the fact that revenues are dropping would rightfully concern investors. However, this is an expected part of the company's progression.

To align with its U.S. Department of War (DoW) agreement, MP had to cease all sales of rare earth concentrates to China. In Q3 2024, the company generated around $43 million in revenue from rare earth concentrates. That number went to zero last quarter, greatly damaging MP’s overall revenue. However, the company generated $21.9 million from magnetic precursors, which generated no comparable revenue a year ago. This, along with a 61% increase in Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal revenues, helped significantly offset the complete loss of concentrate sales.

Still, generating sales and profitability are not MP’s primary goals at this point. Its main goal is to become a vertically integrated manufacturer of permanent rare earth magnets. On this front, the company executed very well.

MP Ramps Production Impressively, Anticipates Q4 Profitability

NdPr oxide and metals are critical materials for producing permanent magnets used in many key technologies. China controls around 90% of production. Boosting domestic NdPr production is the main geopolitical motivation for the U.S. government’s support of MP.

Importantly, the company posted record NdPr production of 721 metric tons. This was an increase of 51%, and exceeded the high end of its outlook. The company also posted its second-highest-ever rare-earth oxide (REO) production of 13,254 metric tons. Boosting production of these materials effectively is one of MP’s main objectives as it looks to become vertically integrated. It did just that in Q3.

The company also made strong progress on other initiatives to support this goal. MP installed key equipment at its Independence facility. It plans to start making finished magnets there by the end of the year at scale. General Motors NYSE: GM will buy these magnets initially, with revenue expected to ramp up in the second half of 2026. Recycling-based magnet production for tech giant Apple NASDAQ: AAPL will follow.

MP also expects its heavy rare earth production system to come online in mid-2026. This would allow the United States to produce heavy rare earths at scale for the first time in decades.

Despite profitability not being MP’s primary objective at this point, it expects to achieve this very soon. As part of its agreement with MP, the DoW has guaranteed that MP will receive at least $110 per kilogram (kg) of NdPr oxide. This pricing agreement took effect on Oct. 1. As a result, MP believes that it will be profitable in Q4 and beyond. This mechanism aims to ensure that if NdPr oxide prices fall, MP will maintain financial stability. Notably, the $110/kg floor price is 86% above the $59/kg MP realized in Q3.

Analysts Remain Optimistic, But Don’t Dismiss MP’s October Slide

Overall, things went more than according to plan at MP, leading shares to rise nearly 23% in the following two days. Shares are up 22% since the earnings release. News of MP and the DoW’s joint venture with the Saudi Arabian Mining Company sent shares up over 8% on Nov. 19. This came after MP shares posted several losing days.

Wall Street analysts continue to see upside in MP shares. The MarketBeat consensus price target near $79 implies around 24% upside potential. However, the average of price targets updated after the company’s earnings is just below $76, implying 19% upside. Despite this, the recent past has shown that MP shares can be hit very hard, very fast. This necessitates that investors adopt a risk-aware approach when considering MP Materials stock.