NVIDIA Rally? The Market Hasn’t Seen Anything Yet

Key Points

• NVIDIA's stock is deeply undervalued, and the news revealed at GTC proves it.
• The two-year revenue forecast is probably 50% too low, maybe more, and long-term forecasts are also questionable.
• Valuation, growth, comps with peers, analysts, institutional, and technical trends align: 50% upside is the minimum for this stock.

If you think that NVIDIA’s NASDAQ: NVDA rally-to-date has been impressive, just wait for what comes next. News revealed at the GTC developer conference shows the AI boom is still growing, much larger and faster than expected, indicating potential for another series of triple-digit gains. It may take a minute to comprehend, but this is a series—not just one—of triple-digit gains that could be possible for this semiconductor stock.

CEO Jenson Huang said there is a trillion-dollar revenue opportunity to be realized through 2027, far larger than expected. So large, in fact, that it more than doubles the existing two-year revenue outlook, suggesting NVIDIA’s stock price has yet to be unleashed. 

NVIDIA’s Stock Is Deeply Undervalued—50% Upside Is the Minimum Target

From a valuation perspective, there is a significant opportunity. NVIDIA trades at a 22X forward earnings multiple as of mid-March 2026, which provides no premium relative to the S&P 500.

NVIDIA with no premium is ludicrous, as it is the source of all things AI. Not only is its revenue growing at a wicked hot pace, but the forecasts are also too low, and many comparisons suggest large price increases to come. 

Not only do blue-chip tech stocks, including NVIDIA, often trade at 30-35X forward earnings, suggesting approximately 50% upside, but the growth forecast also provides a deeper opportunity.

NVIDIA trades at only 14X its 2030 forecast and 9X its 2035 forecast, setting the stage for a 150% upside over the long-term.

Assuming the long-term forecast is too low, upside potential could be greater. If the long-term forecast is as off as the fiscal year 2027 (FY2027) and FY2028 seem to be, upside potential may run to the 300% range or higher.

Analysts Are Impressed: Institutions Accumulate NVIDIA

The analyst response to the news cannot be ignored. In the words of Wedbush Dan Ives, the trillion-dollar backlog is a stunner, and driving an outlook reset. MarketBeat tracked no analyst revisions within the first 12 hours of the release, but no sentiment trend change is expected, only strengthening of the current trend.

Other takeaways from the commentaries are that the news is a confidence booster, allaying fears about competition, and that the shift toward full-service AI is progressing smoothly. 

As it stands, 53 analysts rate the stock as a consensus Buy with a 96% Buy-side bias. No analyst rates the stock as a Sell, two peg it at Hold, and the consensus price target, up more than 60% on a trailing 12-month basis, forecasts a 50% upside from March support levels. The high end, coincidentally, forecasts more than 100% upside for this market and is likely to increase as the year progresses. 

Institutions have been taking advantage of NVIDIA’s price consolidation.

MarketBeat data shows them providing a solid support base with more than 60% ownership and accumulating on balance for five sequential quarters. Buying activity ramped up sequentially in 2025 and into early 2026, with a $3-to-$1 buyers-to-sellers pace. This data reflects not only a strong support but a tailwind, as they are aggressively accumulating amid broader market uncertainty. 

NVIDIA Market Sets Up for Big Move: Technical Targets Converge

The question now is what might catalyze the next upward movement? The Q1 2027 results aren’t due until late May, leaving two months for the market to sit and stew. In this environment, anticipation and fear of missing out may drive the stock price higher, with $196 as the critical resistance level. In this scenario, NVIDIA’s price may be capped at $196 until it isn’t, and then it may quickly rise. $200 and $210 are also significant resistance targets, likely to induce volatility but unlikely to halt a price advance once it is underway. 

Chart action is another factor converging on a 50% to 100% stock price movement in the near to mid-term. The past few quarters' consolidation created a Bullish Flag on a $90 flag pole, which, coincidentally, is planted at the $90 level, suggesting a $90 to 100% upside from the $180 Flag tip. In this scenario, NVIDIA’s stock price may rise by $90, or 50%, from the $180 level as a base-case estimate, and as much as 100% at the high-end, which, coincidentally, is $360 and on track to the Street-high analyst target of $400.