Pentagon Deal Sends AST SpaceMobile Soaring—Is This the Next Leg Up?

Key Points

• After surging 452% over the past year, shares of ASTS jumped 15% on Friday on the news of being awarded a contract by the Pentagon.
• The news comes after AST SpaceMobile’s successful launch of its BlueBird 6 satellite in December 2025.
• Earlier in the week, the stock—which was downgraded from Buy to Neutral by B. Riley Securities—sold off but has more than recovered those losses since.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS jumped 15% on Friday as the company announced that it was awarded a government contract for the Missile Defense Agency Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contract. 

The jump in price comes after communication services stock slipped earlier in the week following the SpaceX rival being downgraded from a Buy rating to a Neutral rating by B. Riley Securities on Jan. 13. 

However, the announcement underscores the company’s capabilities beyond commercial space-based cellular services, serving as an additional tailwind as AST SpaceMobile gears up for the next iteration of its BlueBird satellite. 

The SHIELD Initiative and America’s Golden Dome Project

While AST SpaceMobile continues to build out the first and only space-based cellular broadband network accessible directly by smartphones, it continues to bolster its government contract revenue.  

AST SpaceMobile’s selection demonstrates growing government interest in the company’s low-Earth Orbit (LEO) capabilities—specifically, their applications for national defense. The SHIELD program is part of the larger Golden Dome project, which focuses on building layered protection against air, missile, space, cyber, and hybrid threats against the United States. 

“Being selected as a prime contract awardee for the MDA’s SHIELD program is a major validation of our unique, on-orbit, dual-use technology and our growing capabilities within the defense sector,” said Chris Ivory, chief commercial officer and head of government business at AST SpaceMobile. 

Ivory noted that the company’s LEO satellite architecture “is inherently scalable and resilient,” and that the SHIELD “contract establishes AST SpaceMobile “as an eligible provider to bid directly on future task orders, enabling us to rapidly align our cutting-edge space technology with the critical needs of the Department of War and other U.S. government entities.”

After BlueBird 6 Success, AST SpaceMobile Eyes BlueBird 7

Another near-term catalyst for the stock is its BlueBird 7 satellite. Following the successful launch of its BlueBird 6—the largest commercial communications array ever deployed into LEO—on Dec. 23, 2025, the company now has its sights set on BlueBird 7.

BlueBird 6 is 3.5x the size of its predecessors and will support 10x their data capacity after it launched from India's Satish Dhawan Space Center last month. 

Now, the company has announced that its BlueBird 7 satellite has arrived in Florida and is in the process of being integrated with its launch vehicle. AST SpaceMobile’s plan is to deploy between 45 and 60 of those satellites by the end of 2026, including five potential deployments in March.  

After a Big Year, Wall Street Is Cautiously Optimistic About AST SpaceMobile 

As a company that is 95% vertically integrated, AST SpaceMobile has pricing power and supply chain control that have bolstered its standing on Wall Street. It boasts over 3,800 patents and patent-pending claims, and the space-based cellular firm has already secured partnerships with Verizon Communications NYSE: VZ, AT&T NYSE: T, and Vodafone Group NASDAQ: VOD. 

That’s in addition to commercial pacts with Japanese tech conglomerate Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNY, real estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMT, and BCE NYSE: BCE, formerly Bell Canada Enterprises and one of Canada’s largest telecommunications and media companies. 

After a run-up that resulted in shares of ASTS gaining more than 452% over the past year, Wall Street is maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook for the stock. The company will be looking for its first earnings beat in four quarters when it reports FY 2025 full-year and Q4 earnings on March 2. 

Of the 11 analysts covering AST SpaceMobile, two assign it a Buy rating, five assign it a Hold rating, and four assign it a Sell rating. However, analysts’ average 12-month price target of $45.66 implies nearly 61% potential downside from today’s share price. 

On the other hand, according to TradeSmith, ASTS’s financial health has been in the Green Zone for more than eight months, suggesting that the company’s sound fundamentals will contribute to an ongoing strong and healthy uptrend with normal pullbacks in the mix.

Despite institutional ownership being below average at nearly 61%, inflows of $1.91 billion over the past 12 months have easily outpaced outflows of $320.68 million. However, short interest—which currently stands at 15%, or more than 38% million shares out of AST SpaceMobile’s more than 367 million shares outstanding—suggests that Wall Street’s bears are expecting a possible near-term pullback or correction.