Adults Are Fueling a Toy Boom—These 4 Stocks Could Cash In

Key Points

• Adults are increasingly driving toy sales through the "kidult economy," but stock performance shows durable collectible franchises outperform hype-driven, scarcity-based products.
• Hasbro has risen 20% year to date thanks to repeat buying in Magic: The Gathering, while Mattel has fallen roughly 15% despite owning nostalgic brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels.
• Nintendo's minority stake in Pokémon and GameStop's growing collectibles business offer additional ways to play the kidult trend.

The fourth quarter of a calendar year is highlighted by holiday spending. Investors won't know the actual winners and losers until companies report their numbers in 2027. However, there are reasons to believe that toy stocks will be among the 2026 holiday season winners.

A report from Circana Insights points out that toy sales are up 17% in the first half of the year. That would seem to fly in the face of a consumer who has been holding off on discretionary purchases. But a closer look reveals the reason why. Adults aren't just buying toys for their kids. They're buying them for themselves.

Welcome to the "kidult economy," which gives new meaning to the words "kid at heart." This demographic comprises individuals aged 12 and older who buy toys and engage in playful activities traditionally associated with children.

This demographic has always existed, but it became a significant investment story in 2020. Forced to spend increased time at home and online, many individuals reconnected with interest in collectibles, board games, and pop culture merchandise.

The Kidult Economy Has Separate Trades

But toy stocks are telling a different story than the industry data. Hasbro Inc. NASDAQ: HAS is up for the year. Mattel Inc. NASDAQ: MAT is down 15%. That gap is a warning to anyone treating the kidult economy as one trade. It’s really two.

The first is durable IP with built-in repeat buying. Think trading card games, franchises that span generations, and licensing. Collectors come back every season because there’s always a new set to chase. The second is hype products driven by scarcity. Blind boxes and limited drops sell out fast, then fade.

Hasbro Shows What Repeat Buying Looks Like

Hasbro is the clearest example of the first trade. Its Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segment grew revenue 86% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025. That offset weakness in traditional toys.

The momentum has carried into 2026. In the second quarter, Magic: The Gathering topped $500 million in quarterly revenue for the first time in its 30-plus-year history.

Magic players don’t buy one box and walk away. They buy every set. That’s the kidult economy at its most durable, and it’s why Hasbro stock is up 20% year to date.

Mattel Is the Open Question

Mattel is down roughly 15% for 2026. On the surface, that’s puzzling. Barbie and Hot Wheels are exactly the nostalgic brands adult buyers should love.

The slide began in February, when weak holiday orders and a soft 2026 outlook sent shares down about 25% in a day. The open question is whether the market is underpricing Mattel’s nostalgia. The alternative is that nostalgia without a recurring collecting habit doesn’t add up to much. A one-time purchase of a childhood favorite isn’t the same as a customer who returns every season.

However, MAT was up 28% in the 30 days ending Oct. 19. That could be due to value-hunting investors. The company's Q3 2026 earnings report in November may provide more insight.

Nintendo May Get a Lift From the Less Obvious Choice

Nintendo Co. OTCMKTS: NTDOY was up approximately 21% in the three months ending Oct. 19, but it's still down 20% in 2026. The stock was expected to benefit from the company's long-awaited release of its Switch 2 gaming console.

That's been a mixed story. On the positive side, Switch 2 sales are strong. In the company's Q1 2027 earnings report, Nintendo reported 3.82 million units were sold in the quarter. That brought the total since launch to 23.68 million.

The company says Switch 2 sell-through is outpacing the original Switch at the same stage. But rising memory costs have already forced Nintendo to raise the Switch 2’s price. The U.S. price rose $50 to $499.99 on Sept. 1. Nintendo also expects Switch 2 unit sales to decline this fiscal year, to 16.5 million.

While adults may enjoy the Switch 2, the kidult story for Nintendo is the stake the company holds in The Pokémon Company. Nintendo owns roughly one-third of the privately held company. Pokémon is a textbook example of durable IP. Kids who grew up with it in the 1990s are now adults buying trading cards. The catch is that it’s a minority stake. Pokémon’s success reaches shareholders indirectly, so the Switch 2 cycle will still drive the stock.

GameStop May Have a Sustainable Catalyst

The internet, and specifically the cloud, killed GameStop NYSE: GME. The company has been trying to show investors that it can make a successful pivot away from its legacy video game and gaming console business.

The company has flirted with a few different business models. But growth in the kidult economy may be a realistic catalyst for meaningful revenue and earnings. GameStop does sell collectibles, including toys, apparel, and trading cards.

In the company's Q2 2026 earnings report, net sales of collectibles came in at $356.3 million. That was 45.1% of the company's net sales. It was also up approximately 56% year over year.

GME may still be a troubled stock, but it's worth noting that Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives initiated coverage on the stock with an Outperform rating and a $32 price target that matches the consensus price. Ives points to GameStop’s card-grading partnership with Professional Sport Authenticator (PSA) as a key piece of the thesis.