AST SpaceMobile’s Japan Catalyst Puts Its Rollout Story Back in Focus

Key Points

• AST SpaceMobile shares surged 21% on June 29 after Japan announced a roughly $912 million subsidy for a Rakuten-led satellite communications project.
• Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile plan a joint venture targeting regulatory approval for D2D operations in Japan, with initial commercial services expected in 2026.
• Despite the bullish catalyst, analysts maintain a consensus Reduce rating on ASTS.

The roller coaster ride continues for AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS shareholders.

After space stocks were battered in the wake of the SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX IPO in June, AST SpaceMobile rewarded patient investors with its best daily performance in two years.

Shares of the Midland, Texas-based space-based direct-to-device (D2D) cellular broadband provider surged 21% on Monday, June 29, to close out the second quarter on a strong note. This was a welcome reprieve after a month in which the market punished ASTS despite the successful launch of its low Earth orbit (LEO) BlueBird satellites 8, 9, and 10.

The catalyst for this week’s big jump was Japan’s plan to grant up to 148 billion yen (approximately $912 million) to a satellite communications project led by Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNY. That put AST SpaceMobile’s Rakuten partnership back into the spotlight while raising hopes for a major D2D rollout in Japan.

Japan Announces Massive Space-Based Telecom Subsidy

Motivated by concerns that critical communications infrastructure has become too dependent on foreign satellite networks such as SpaceX’s Starlink, Japan is using the Japan Low Earth Orbit Satellite Communications Project (J-LEO) to support a more resilient domestic alternative.

The program is expected to focus on satellite connectivity for remote areas, disaster response, and emergency communications, giving the Rakuten-led effort strategic value beyond a standard commercial telecom rollout.

According to the Japan Times, Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications secured funding for the J-LEO in 2025, but the tender process didn’t conclude until last month. The plan calls for massive investment in the build-out of a homegrown D2D satellite network over the next three years.

Beyond the subsidy news, Rakuten announced plans for a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile that will secure full regulatory approval for D2D operations in Japan. Initial commercial services are expected to begin later in 2026, with a full rollout slated for 2027.

The move could become a boon for AST SpaceMobile. Having narly $1 billion in sovereign-backed capital would give the company a clearer template for monetizing its technology through carrier- and government-backed international networks.

Launch Window Set for BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13

After the successful June launch of its latest three satellites, AST SpaceMobile says it intends to launch BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, in the first half of August. That will go a long way in keeping the company on track to meet its goal of putting 45 LEO satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.

“These next-generation satellites are expected to deliver nearly double the peak data speeds of AST SpaceMobile's initial Block 1 BlueBird satellites, which recently achieved peak download speeds of 98.9 Mbps directly to standard smartphones," according to a recent company press release.

Beyond 2026, the company is scaling towards a constellation of 45 to 60 satellites, which it will require to provide initial continuous coverage in the United States and Japan. That number will need to increase to provide continuous global coverage, with approximately 90 BlueBirds required.

Ultimately, AST SpaceMobile could have as many as 248 satellites deployed to expand its network, increase its data capacity, and support a massive global clientele. However, the company has discussed a long-term plan that could involve up to 540 dual-use satellites over the next decade.

Despite Catalysts, Wall Street Remains Tepid

Despite the news and subsequently bullish price action, the jury is still out on AST SpaceMobile.

In Q2, the stock saw a series of less-than-inspiring ratings. On May 29, William Blair reissued a Market Perform rating on ASTS, while Wall Street Zen lowered its rating from a Sell to a Strong Sell on April 15.

On May 12, B. Riley Financial increased its ASTS price target from $75 to $85; however, the firm assigned the stock a Neutral rating. Also on May 12, UBS Group lowered its price target from $85 to $80, while in a research note dated June 24, Weiss Ratings reiterated its Sell rating.

Based on the 10 analysts currently covering ASTS, the stock receives a consensus Reduce rating, with a 12-month price target implying around 4% upside from current levels. Meanwhile, current short interest stands at a worrisome 20.35% of the float, or nearly 62.5 million shares valued at $5.47 billion.

However, AST SpaceMobile has agreements with nearly 60 global mobile network providers, totaling more than 3 billion subscribers, and strategic partnerships in place with AT&T NYSE: T, Verizon NYSE: VZ, Vodafone NASDAQ: VOD, Rakuten, Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL, and real estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMT, among others.

Long-term, the company should continue to enjoy top-line growth that translates into strong earnings for patient investors.