Salesforce Looks Overbought, But the Rally May Be Far From Over

Key Points

• Salesforce shares surged more than 70% since June, fueled by strong earnings that eased fears AI would displace traditional software platforms.
• Revenue grew 11% year over year, Agentforce recurring revenue more than tripled, and a new Anthropic partnership boosted investor confidence, prompting raised guidance.
• Analysts from Argus, TD Cowen, Deutsche Bank and Needham reiterated bullish ratings despite an overbought RSI above 80 signaling a possible near-term pullback.

After a gloomy first half to the year, shares of Salesforce Inc. NYSE: CRM have been enjoying quite the recovery of late. Since June, the stock has surged more than 70%, and last week's earnings poured fresh fuel on the fire.

It’s been a powerful run, and one that has gone a long way towards quieting fears that the rise of AI might be tolling the bell for traditional software platforms.

That fear had weighed on Salesforce for months, resting on the theory that businesses might ditch expensive software contracts in favor of home-grown AI-powered alternatives.

However, recent earnings results told a very different story, and investors have piled in as a result.

The one obvious catch is that the shares now look stretched.

The blistering pace of Salesforce’s rally has pushed a closely watched momentum gauge, the relative strength index (RSI), up above 80, a level that screams overbought.

For those of us on the sidelines, that leaves one simple question: were the results good enough to justify further gains even with the RSI this stretched, or does buying in now risk being the last one holding the bag when the stock takes a well-earned breather?

Why the Stock Jumped Last Week

The latest spark to this multi-month rally was a set of results that gave investors plenty to cheer about. Salesforce’s revenue grew at a solid 11% year on year, while contracted future revenue accelerated, and customer churn fell to near-record lows.

Those signals matter because they counter one of the great fears hanging over the software industry: that AI might tempt companies to abandon expensive software platforms. Instead, Salesforce's customers are staying put and spending more, suggesting those fears may have been overdone.

On the back of that strength, management also raised its guidance for the year, which helps explain why shares jumped nearly 25% from their pre-earnings level.

The AI Engine Behind the Numbers

If the results lit the fuse, the company's progress in AI provided the charge. Salesforce’s flagship suite of AI tools, known as Agentforce, has been growing at a blistering pace, with the recurring revenue it generates more than tripling over the past year.

That is the crucial point for the bulls, especially when the red-hot RSI makes the stock look so overbought. The earnings report was proof that Salesforce is using AI to its advantage, rather than being disrupted by it. Considering shares had spent the first half of the year losing more than 40% of their value amid fears of the latter scenario, that’s a lot of downside to reverse.

The cherry on top was the announcement of Salesforce’s partnership with AI giant Anthropic, which will see Salesforce integrate Anthropic’s Claude model directly into its platform. It is in many ways an ironic turn of events—the very kind of AI once seen as a threat to Salesforce's future has now been brought inside the tent as a partner, turning a potential disruptor into a key selling point.

What the Analysts Are Saying

Wall Street, unsurprisingly, has responded with a string of analyst updates, almost universally bullish, in the wake of the report.

To name just a handful: Argus, TD Cowen, Deutsche Bank and Needham all reiterated their Buy or equivalent ratings, with some refreshed price targets as high as $400.

From where Salesforce is trading, even after the post-earnings pop, that’s still an impressive 55% in targeted upside.

Their bullish outlook is reflected across the wider analyst community's stance, which nets out to a MarketBeat consensus rating of Moderate Buy for the stock.

An Overbought Stock Still Worth Owning

For all the bullish momentum, there is no escaping the fact that the stock looks frothy in the short term. The RSI’s current reading near 80 is its highest level in nearly two years, and prints like that tend to precede a pullback at some point, even if it’s just some healthy profit taking.

For investors, the thing to watch is Salesforce’s price action over the coming days. If shares start to trickle lower this week rather than push on to fresh highs, that would be an early hint the rally is pausing for breath, and sellers are beginning to take some money off the table.

Why a Dip Would Be a Gift

Yet even that scenario would be no bad thing. A cooling-off period would give those on the sidelines something they don’t have right now: a more comfortable entry point into a stock with an awful lot going for it. Between accelerating demand, tangible AI revenue, and a wave of rising price targets, the longer-term case is compelling.

So while the overbought reading counsels a little patience, the bigger picture is clear. For investors looking to capture the AI revolution, Salesforce increasingly looks like a stock to own rather than avoid, whether they buy in now or wait for an inevitable bout of profit-taking.

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