Iran Ceasefire or Not, These 3 Companies Could Win

Key Points

• An end to the war in Iran would no doubt benefit travel companies like United Airlines, Marriott, and Royal Caribbean, but these stocks may be positioned for success even if a ceasefire doesn't come.
• A combination of pricing power, strong cash positions, fuel hedging, and more help to strengthen each of these firms' prospects.
• Analysts are bullish on all three of these stocks despite the geopolitical headwinds.

More than 100 days since the start of the Iran war, investors are still struggling to predict when or how it might conclude. Between headlines about a ceasefire and renewed attacks, it's difficult to assess how the conflict may continue—and what the impacts may be on the market. Given this murkiness, investors may want to turn to stocks that are likely to win out in the event of a ceasefire but that may also still perform well if the fighting continues for an extended period.

A clear choice for companies that may benefit from a cessation of fighting in the Iran war is those firms involved in travel and leisure industries, both of which are heavily linked to the price of oil and fuel. Companies like United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ: UAL, Marriott International NASDAQ: MAR, and Royal Caribbean Cruises NYSE: RCL all fit this bill. However, each of these companies may each also still thrive even if the war continues, and this is reflected in broad optimism across Wall Street.

United Benefits From Reduced Fuel Costs But May Have Resilience Nonetheless

United Airlines, like other airlines across the industry, is heavily impacted by the Iran conflict, specifically due to the fluctuating cost of jet fuel. If fuel costs fall, United is a direct beneficiary—and during recent ceasefire announcements, airline stocks like UAL rallied based on investor anticipation of just this scenario.

Beyond the cost component, the Iran conflict introduces new geopolitical risk that impacts air corridors and flight logistics as well as demand for international travel. All of this weighs on profits and margins for United, which must continue to outpace its high fixed operating costs regardless.

If the war continues, United does have the capacity to pass higher fuel costs through to customers—in fact, the company indicated in its Q1 2026 earnings report that it expected to fully recoup increased jet fuel costs over 2026, yielding double-digit pre-tax margins for 2027. The company was able to pay down more than $3 billion in debt in the first quarter while tripling its cash reserves. United has also suggested it may reduce capacity. By trimming marginal routes, the firm can focus on its more profitable operations.

Marriott's Pass-Through Potential Is Also Strong, and RevPAR Headwinds May Be Overstated

Like United, Marriott benefits when business travel recovers, and corporations tend to expand travel budgets for employees when geopolitical risks ease. This could be particularly important for international travel, which is likely to see a boost when the conflict in Iran is resolved. Further, overall consumer confidence will likely increase at that point as well, and with customers less worried about war or the price of travel, leisure spending may improve.

The Middle East conflict is undoubtedly a headwind for Marriott—the company expects it could reduce its full-year global revenue per available room (revPAR) by 100-125 basis points—but the chain outperformed in Q1 on revPAR and recently boosted its full-year guidance. Further, financials came in strong in the first quarter despite the obstacles, with adjusted EBITDA up 15% year-over-year (YOY) and adjusted earnings per share increasing by 17% over the same period.

Also like United, Marriott may be able to pass some of its added costs along to customers via increases to room rates. The company also has the advantage of franchising many of its locations, which helps to reduce its exposure to energy costs. Finally, domestic travel may be less likely to be impacted by the conflict than international, giving Marriott a strong component of its business to fall back on.

Royal Caribbean Has Fuel Resilience Even If the Conflict Continues

Cruise lines like Royal Caribbean are also exposed to the price of fuel, which tends to be one of the highest operating costs for a company like this. Like airlines, cruise company stocks tend to see a boost when headlines suggest a ceasefire may be near. Another boon for Royal Caribbean in the event of an end to the conflict in Iran would likely be stronger booking trends, which are closely linked to consumer confidence.

On the other hand, if the war progresses, Royal Caribbean may be able to ride on its strong pricing power, thanks to cruise demand that has been surprisingly resilient since COVID. The company has also positioned itself well in fuel hedging, which may give it an advantage over some rivals. Analysts are bullish on RCL shares, with nearly three quarters calling the stock a Buy and a consensus price target that would suggest about 20% in possible upside.