O’Reilly Automotive’s Stock Slump Hides a Stronger Business

Key Points

• O'Reilly Automotive shares have fallen roughly 19% over the past year even though the company posted solid second-quarter sales and earnings growth.
• Professional sales to mechanics and repair shops grew 12.5% for a fourth straight quarter, while do-it-yourself sales growth remained soft.
• Analysts maintain a consensus Moderate Buy rating with an average price target implying about 24% upside, though the stock trades at a premium valuation.

For more than three decades, O'Reilly Automotive NASDAQ: ORLY has been one of the most dependable compounders on Wall Street.

The auto parts retailer has strung together year after year of comparable-store sales growth. Yet the stock has spent the past year mostly going in reverse. In short,  the business looks as strong as ever. The share price does not.

O'Reilly is not a traditional bargain, and it’s not flashy. It’s a reliable earner that gains share, buys back stock, and grows earnings at a double-digit pace.

Deciding whether to own it comes down to weighing that track record against fading price inflation, softer do-it-yourself traffic, and a premium valuation.

O’Reilly Maps Out Its Next Stage of Growth

September, in particular, was packed with news. At its 2026 Analyst Day on Sept. 18, O'Reilly laid out plans to open more stores this year than at any point in company history. It also said Mexico, where it has more than 100 stores already, could eventually support more than 1,000 locations. Four days later, rival AutoZone NYSE: AZO reported a jump in sales for its fiscal fourth quarter, and the whole group rallied, including O’Reilly.

O'Reilly's second-quarter report on July 29 was solid, if not spectacular. Sales rose 8% to $4.89 billion, and comparable-store sales grew 6%. Net income grew 7% to $715 million, and diluted earnings per share climbed 10% to 86 cents from 78 cents, in line with Wall Street's forecast.

Professional Sales Lead the Way

The real star was the professional side of the business, the mechanics and repair shops that buy parts every day. Sales to professional service providers grew 12.5% for the fourth straight quarter of double-digit gains. The do-it-yourself business, by contrast, grew only modestly.

Management raised its full-year outlook, lifting comparable-store sales guidance to 4% to 6% and earnings per share guidance to $3.20 to $3.30.

An Aging Car Fleet Supports Long-Term Growth

The long-term bull case rests on a simple idea. Americans are keeping their cars longer, and O'Reilly is built to supply the parts they need.

O’Reilly still has plenty of room to grow in a large, fragmented industry, and it tends to benefit when rivals stumble. Advance Auto Parts NYSE: AAP reported a drop in comparable sales in August, and its shares plunged. O'Reilly could benefit, with its deeper inventory and faster delivery. House brands, which now make up more than half of sales, also support its margins.

There is also a buyback engine. Instead of paying a dividend, O'Reilly returns cash by retiring shares, and it repurchased billions of dollars of stock in the first half of 2026 alone. That’s a significant reason whey earnings per share keep growing faster than net income.

Wall Street Remains Bullish

Wall Street is along for the ride. Fifteen of the 19 analysts covering the stock rate it a Buy, with one listing it as a Strong Buy, four rate it a Hold, and none recommend selling.

Overall, O’Reilly has earned a consensus Moderate Buy rating.

The average 12-month price target is $107.24 per share, an upside of about 24%. The highest target price is $120 per share, while the lowest is $91.

In general, though, performance has been disappointing for a stock with this kind of track record.

Currently trading at roughly $86 per share, the stock is down more than 5% this year and roughly 19% over the past 12 months.

Premium Valuation Raises the Risks

The most important risk is that the easy growth is ending while investors are still paying a premium price.

Same-SKU inflation gave second-quarter results a lift. If those increases pull back, O'Reilly might need more unit growth to keep comparables healthy. Meanwhile, the stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of about 26, noticeably richer than either AutoZone or Genuine Parts NYSE: GPC, and that gap leaves little room for a stumble.

There are some yellow flags as well. DIY traffic is soft, suggesting cash-strapped consumers are putting off some repairs. O'Reilly routinely borrows as it moves toward a higher-leverage target, and higher interest rates would make that debt-funded buyback strategy more expensive.

Competition is also not standing still: AutoZone, Genuine Parts, and online sellers such as Amazon NASDAQ: AMZN are all fighting for the same repair dollar.

Consistency Remains O’Reilly’s Strength

O'Reilly is not likely to show up on screeners as a cheap value stock anytime soon. It’s not a flashy growth name either. What it offers is consistency as a business that keeps gaining share, keeps buying back stock and keeps growing earnings year after year.

An important test comes with third-quarter results, expected in late October. If professional sales stay strong and DIY traffic stabilizes, this stock could shift back into drive.

After a year of going in reverse, long-term investors who value quality might find the current level a more attractive position than O'Reilly has offered in a while.