Qualcomm’s Discount Could Vanish If Its AI Bet Pays Off

Key Points

• Qualcomm trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 22, well below rivals like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD, despite its ties to the AI boom.
• Analysts, including Rosenblatt Securities with a $235 price target, see upside from Qualcomm's expansion into AI data centers, automotive chips, and on-device AI processing.
• Apple's shift to in-house modem chips and a sluggish Android market in China threaten to offset Qualcomm's diversification gains, keeping its consensus rating at Hold.

There’s a certain irony in a stock that has just rallied hard still being written off, yet that's exactly where chipmaker Qualcomm Inc. NASDAQ: QCOM finds itself right now. After a brutal 44% slide through much of the summer, its shares staged an impressive comeback, climbing around 30% since the start of August.

They’re currently trading around $187, having recovered much, but not all, of the ground lost in that punishing sell-off.

For all that, the stock still trades at a valuation that looks remarkably cheap for a company at the heart of the technology boom. In addition, even the more cautious voices on Wall Street seem to think Qualcomm’s shares are worth more than what they currently trade for.

The question, then, is whether shares look cheap for a reason. As has so often been the case with Qualcomm, the answer depends on how much faith you place in the company’s ability to reinvent itself.

A Valuation That's Hard to Ignore

Starting with the numbers, it’s easy to see why the bulls might feel Qualcomm is trading at a discount right now. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 22, it’s well below NVIDIA Corp’s NASDAQ: NVDA 27, Broadcom Inc’s NASDAQ: AVGO 44, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc’s NASDAQ: AMD 134.

It’s also below its own 34 P/E ratio from the end of last year, despite the company making real progress on many fronts in the meantime. The bulls argue that the market is still valuing Qualcomm as little more than a maker of smartphone chips, a mature, slow-growing business, while assigning almost no value to its ambitions in far racier corners of the industry. If those ambitions bear fruit, the reasoning goes, today's price will look like a bargain.

Several analysts share this view, with Rosenblatt Securities, for example, recently reiterating its Buy rating on Qualcomm shares and a $235 price target that points to around 20% upside.

How Qualcomm Could Reinvent Itself

The bull case centers on diversification: Qualcomm can grow beyond its reliance on smartphones and into faster-growing markets. The most eye-catching prize is a foothold in the AI data center, where last week’s news of a deal with Amazon Web Services is just the latest sign of progress in what could be a lucrative, new revenue stream.

Beyond that, the company has been building its presence in cars and connected devices, markets with long product cycles and plenty of room to grow. As vehicles become computers on wheels and everyday objects gain intelligence, Qualcomm's expertise in low-power, connected computing gives it a credible shot at a much broader business.

Tying it together is the rise of on-device AI. Qualcomm's chips are well-suited to running AI directly on phones, cars, and industrial gear, rather than in some distant data center. If that becomes the battleground many expect, the company could command more valuable chip content in every device.

The Catch Behind the Discount

Set against that promise are real risks, which is why the stock isn't valued more richly. The biggest is Apple Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL, one of Qualcomm's most important customers, which is busy moving the development of its own modem chips in-house. That’s set to strip away a major chunk of Qualcomm's revenue in the coming years, and may do so before its newer businesses are big enough to fill the gap.

The near-term picture is hardly rosy either. Qualcomm remains heavily exposed to the sluggish Android phone market, particularly in a weak China, while rival MediaTek OTCMKTS: MDTKF is pushing hard into the premium handset space that has traditionally been Qualcomm's bread and butter. In other words, a hoped-for recovery in phone-related revenue is far from guaranteed.

A Bargain Worth the Wait?

On the one hand, Qualcomm clearly offers a tempting proposition for any investor with patience and a long enough time horizon. A low valuation, a growing foothold in AI data centers, and expanding beyond handsets all give it a credible path to shedding its image as a mere phone-chip supplier. On that view, the market may be too fixated on the risks and too dismissive of the opportunity.

The catch, and it’s a significant one, is timing. The bull case rests entirely on Qualcomm's newer ventures scaling up fast enough to outrun the looming loss of Apple's business.

Until there is hard evidence that they can, a degree of caution is understandable. The stock's MarketBeat consensus rating of Hold captures that balance.

Still, the recent rally shows the market is warming to the story, and even cautious analysts point to upside, so the shares hardly look expensive.

For those willing to back the reinvention and wait, Qualcomm may prove one of the more rewarding bets in the chip sector.