Trip.com’s Selloff Raises a Bigger Question About Its Travel Recovery Story

Key Points

• Trip.com shares closed down nearly 13%, a new 52-week low, after management guided for Q2 revenue growth of just 3% to 8%.
• First-quarter revenue rose 17% year-over-year, driven by inbound China bookings up 90% and international platform bookings up 65%.
• Despite a consensus Moderate Buy rating and an average price target of $68, the stock trades at a steep discount to peers.

Shares of Trip.com Group NASDAQ: TCOM fell as much as 18% on Thursday, hitting a new 52-week low after the company's second-quarter outlook spooked investors, overshadowing strong first-quarter revenue growth and resilient travel demand.

The guidance, which called for revenue growth to fall sharply from its Q1 pace, is raising concerns about the travel giant's near-term trajectory and dealing another blow to a stock that was already down roughly 35% year-to-date ahead of the earnings report.

Travel Demand Remained Resilient in Q1

After the bell on Wednesday, June 24, Trip.com reported first-quarter earnings of 83 cents per share, a penny higher than the previous year and two cents below the consensus estimate of 85 cents per share.

Revenue came in at $2.35 billion, up 17% year-over-year (YOY) and beating analysts' $2.3 billion estimate.

The company said the revenue growth was largely driven by solid travel consumption and resilient travel demand across segments during the quarter.

Inbound travel to China was a particularly bright spot, as gross bookings rose roughly 90% YOY. Recent changes to the Chinese government's international tourism policies, designed to attract more foreign visitors, helped spur growth.

Gross bookings through the international online travel agent platform were also strong, increasing about 65% YOY. During the earnings call, Chief Executive Jane Sun said the growth reflected the continued expansion of global travel demand and the growing strength of the international platform's capabilities.

Q2 Outlook Rattles Investors

Trip.com’s first quarter showed resilient travel demand, but the company’s second-quarter outlook shifted investor focus to a sharp deceleration. Management expects Q2 net revenue to grow just 3% to 8% YOY, down from 17% growth in Q1. Based on that outlook, Q2 revenue would also likely fall sequentially from Q1’s $2.4 billion, adding to concerns about near-term margin and earnings pressure.

The slower pace of growth reflects a combination of macroeconomic headwinds, including elevated oil prices and geopolitical volatility, along with operational changes to meet evolving industry standards and compliance requirements.

"Rising energy prices and recent geopolitical tensions have led to higher airfares, tighter airline capacity, and disruptions on certain international routes, particularly long-haul travel, contributing to a moderation in air travel demand and changes in booking patterns," Chief Financial Officer Cindy Wang said during the call.

She added that, beyond higher energy costs and geopolitical disruption, the Q2 forecast also reflects near-term pressure from operational upgrades tied to evolving industry standards and compliance requirements.

Trip.com is currently the subject of an anti-monopoly investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation, which prompted the company to shut down an AI-powered hotel pricing tool and adjust other business practices. The investigation has also led to several U.S. securities class action lawsuits.

Stock Hits a New 52-Week Low as Selloff Deepens

Thursday’s selloff deepened an already painful slide for Trip.com, with shares touching a new 52-week low of $38.04 before closing down 12.6% at $40.49.

The year started off strong for Trip.com, with shares climbing to a 52-week high of $78.99 on Jan. 12. But things quickly went south just days later after the investigation was disclosed. The news sent the stock down 17% in a single day.

Including Thursday's post-earnings selloff, the stock is now down roughly 49% from its 52-week high, reducing the company's market capitalization from just over $50 billion at its January peak to about $26 billion during the June 25 trading session.

Analysts Remain Bullish, for Now

At least one analyst has already lowered their price target following the report, and others could follow.

The consensus rating on Trip.com remains a Moderate Buy, with eight Buy and three Hold ratings.

The average 12-month price target of about $68 implies more than 65% upside.

While additional analyst downgrades or price target cuts could add to the near-term pressure, the recent selloff has already left Trip.com trading at a steep discount to its peers.

The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of roughly 11, compared to its competitors Booking Holdings Inc.'s NASDAQ: BKNG 17x and Airbnb Inc.'s NASDAQ: ABNB 30x. On a price-to-sales basis, Trip.com trades at roughly 2.9x revenue, well below Booking's roughly 5.2x and Airbnb's 7.2x.

Trip.com's first-quarter results suggested the company's travel business remains healthy, with strong international momentum and solid bookings across the board. But decelerating growth and regulatory headwinds have created uncertainty around the company's outlook. Until investors see clearer signs that growth is reaccelerating and the regulatory overhang begins to lift, the stock may struggle to regain the market's confidence despite its increasingly attractive valuation.