U.S. Bancorp Q3 2021 Earnings Report

U.S. Bancorp EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.30
• Consensus EPS: $1.16
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.14
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.99

U.S. Bancorp Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $5.89 billion
• Expected Revenue: $5.76 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$131.32 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -1.20%

U.S. Bancorp Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2021
• Date: 10/14/2021
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, October 13, 2021
• Conference Call Time: 8:00PM ET

U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) (NYSE:USB) is a financial services holding company and the parent organization of U.S. Bank, a full-service commercial bank. The company provides deposit accounts, consumer and business loans, mortgages, credit and debit cards, payment services, and other banking products to individuals, businesses, institutions and government entities.

Through its wealth, corporate and commercial banking operations, U.S. Bancorp also offers investment management, trust and custody services, treasury management, capital markets support, equipment finance and other specialized financial solutions. Its payments business serves merchants and financial institutions through card processing, payment acceptance and related technology.

U.S. Bancorp traces its banking heritage to 1863 and serves customers throughout the United States through a combination of branch locations, ATMs and digital banking platforms. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Gunjan Kedia serves as president and chief executive officer, while Andy Cecere serves as executive chairman.

U.S. Bancorp Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• U.S. Bancorp reported Q3 EPS of $1.30 and total revenue of $5.9 billion, with pre-tax, pre-provision net revenue up 2.7% quarter-over-quarter driven by fee businesses, loan growth and expense management.
• The bank released $310 million of loan loss reserves, achieved a record low net charge-off ratio of 20 bps and ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 10.2% and book value per share of $32.22.
• Payments momentum remained strong with corporate payment revenues up 13% and merchant processing fees up 4.8% q-q, while digital engagement and a growing business banking-payments ecosystem underpin a target of 15–20% small business relationship growth and 25–30% revenue growth over the next few years.
• Looking ahead, PPP fee income is expected to decline by about $70 million in Q4, with net interest income stable ex-PPP, seasonally lower payments revenue, a $60 million seasonal rise in tax-advantaged investment amortization and credit costs remaining below normal.
• Share buybacks are deferred until H2 2022 pending the MUFG Union Bank acquisition, which is projected to deliver cost synergies, expand West Coast distribution and accelerate revenue and earnings growth.

Presentation

[Operator]

Welcome to U.S. Bancorp's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Following a review of the results by Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer, there will be a formal question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your touch-tone phone and press the pound key to withdraw. This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 10:00 A.M. Central Time through Thursday, October 21st, 2021 at 10:59 P.M. Central Time. I will now turn the conference call over to Jen Thompson, Director of Investor Relations and Economic Analysis for U.S. Bancorp.

[Jen Thompson, Director of Investor Relations and Economic Analysis at U.S. Bancorp]

Thank you, Erica, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Andy Cecere, our Chairman, President, and CEO, and Terry Dolan, our Chief Financial Officer. During their prepared remarks, Andy and Terry will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the slide presentation, as well as our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are available on our website at usbank.com. I'd like to remind you that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on page two of today's presentation, in our press release, and in our Form 10-K and subsequent reports on file with the SEC. I'll now turn the call over to Andy.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Thanks, Jen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Following our prepared remarks, Terry and I will take any questions you have. I'll begin on slide three. In the third quarter, we reported earnings per share of $1.30 and generated total revenue of $5.9 billion. Our linked quarter pre-tax, pre-provision net revenue growth of 2.7% was driven by continued momentum across our fee businesses, growth in average loan balances, and continued focus on expense management resulting in positive operating leverage. We released $310 million of loan loss reserves this quarter, supported by our outlook on the economy and better than expected credit quality metrics. Turning to capital, our book value per share totaled $32.22 at September 30th, which was 1.5% higher than June 30th. Our CET1 ratio was 10.2% at September 30th.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Slide four provides key third quarter performance metrics, including a return on tangible common equity of over 20%. Slide five highlights strong trends in digital engagement. On slide six, we are providing initial information about our business banking and payment relationships which we plan to update every quarter. Our complete payments ecosystem is a competitive advantage for us and provides a number of cyclical and secular growth opportunities. Over the next few years, we believe there is a significant potential to expand and deepen relationships within this ecosystem. Our starting point is that we have about 1.1 million business banking relationships, which we define as businesses with under $25 million in revenue. Currently, about half of our payments customers of this size have a business banking product, and just under one-third of our business banking customers have a payments product.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

The opportunity is to both increase the number of business banking relationships and to deepen these relationships by connecting our banking customers with our payments products and services and connecting our payments customers with our banking products and services. As we discussed previously, we believe we can grow our small business relationships by 15%-20% and related revenue by 25%-30% over the next few years. Now let me turn the call over to Terry who will provide more detail on the quarter.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Thanks, Andy. If you turn to slide seven, I'll start with a balance sheet review followed by a discussion of third quarter earnings trends. Average loans increased 0.8% compared with the second quarter, driven by growth in other retail loans, primarily installment loans, as well as growth in credit card and residential mortgages. This growth was partially offset by lower commercial loan balances, which was impacted by lower levels of PPP loans. At September 30th, PPP loan balances totaled $2.4 billion compared to $4.9 billion at June 30th. Excluding PPP loans, third quarter average loans grew by 1.8% on a linked quarter basis. Turning to slide eight, average deposits increased 0.5% compared with the second quarter and 6.4% compared with a year ago. On both a linked quarter and year-over-year basis, we continued to benefit from favorable mix shift as average non-interest-bearing deposits increased while higher cost time deposits declined.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Slide nine shows credit quality trends. Non-performing assets declined on both a linked quarter and year-over-year basis, and our net charge-off ratio hit a record low of 20 basis points. Our reserve release was $310 million this quarter, primarily reflecting strong credit quality metrics. Our allowance for credit losses as of September 30th totaled $6.3 billion or 2.1% of loans. The allowance level reflected our best estimate of the economic outlook and trajectory of credit quality within the portfolios. Slide 10 provides an earnings summary. In the third quarter of 2021, we earned $1.30 per diluted share. These results include a reserve release of $310 million. Turning to Slide 11, net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis of $3.2 billion increased by

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

1.0% compared with the second quarter. The growth was primarily driven by higher loan fees associated with the Paycheck Protection Program. Excluding PPP-related fees, net interest income would have been stable, reflecting lower loan yields and the impact of changing loan mix, offset by the beneficial impact of core loan growth, lower premium amortization, and an additional day in the quarter. Our net interest margin was stable compared with the second quarter. Slide 12 highlights trends in non-interest income. Compared with a year ago, non-interest income declined to 0.7% as decreases in mortgage revenue and commercial products revenue more than offset strong growth in payments revenue, trust and investment management fees, deposit service charges, and treasury management fees.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

On a linked-quarter basis, non-interest income increased 2.8%, reflecting higher than expected payments revenue and a 20% increase in mortgage revenue, driven by growth in production volume and related gain on sale margins, as well as higher loan sales. Slide 13 provides information on our payment services business. Our payments business continues to benefit from improving economic conditions and spend activity. In the third quarter, sales volumes for both our credit card and our merchant processing businesses exceeded the pandemic compared period in 2019, while CPS volume was about in line. As expected, prepaid card volume declined in the third quarter as the impact of government-related stimulus continues to diminish. The reduced prepaid volume resulted in a slight decline in credit and debit card revenue on a linked-quarter basis. However, corporate payment revenues increased by 13%, which was better than expected, driven by improving business spend activity.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Merchant processing revenue increased by 4.8% due to higher merchant and equipment fees, as well as higher sales volumes. Turning to slide 14, non-interest expense increased 1.2% compared to the second quarter. This increase primarily reflected higher revenue-related compensation and performance-based incentives. Slide 15 highlights our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio at September 30th was 10.2%, which increased slightly compared to June 30th. At the beginning of the third quarter, we suspended our share buyback program due to our recent announcement that we have agreed to acquire MUFG Union Bank. We expect that our share repurchase program will be deferred until the second quarter of 2022. After the closing of the acquisition, we expect to operate at a CET1 capital ratio between our target ratio and 9.0%. I will now provide some forward-looking guidance.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

As PPP winds down and we approach the end of the forgiveness period, we expect PPP fees to decline $60 million-$70 million in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. Excluding the impact of PPP fees, we expect fully taxable equivalent net interest income to be relatively stable on a linked-quarter basis. We expect PPP to be immaterial to both net interest income and the net interest margin in 2022. In the fourth quarter, we expect total payments revenue trends to continue to strengthen, driven by improving sales volumes. The fourth quarter is typically seasonally lower than the third quarter, which affects linked-quarter comparisons. In the fourth quarter, we expect to see a seasonal increase in amortization of tax advantage investments of approximately $60 million, as well as some seasonal impacts in marketing and in business investments. Credit quality remains strong.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Over the next few quarters, we expect the net charge-off ratio to remain lower than normal. For the full year of 2021, we expect our taxable equivalent tax rate to be approximately 22%. I'll hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Thanks, Terry. To summarize, our third quarter results were positive on several fronts, highlighted by a solid growth in core loans, good fee revenue momentum, and strong credit quality. We're finishing of the year and a strong position heading in the 2022. We're excited about the many organic growth opportunities we see across the franchise, supported by our continued investment in people, digital technology, and data analytics. Our three payments businesses will continue to benefit from the improved spend activity, particularly as consumer and business travel recovers towards pre-pandemic levels. More importantly, we believe our secular growth initiatives aimed at connecting payments with banking provide a meaningful potential for market share gains over the immediate and longer term. Our business banking initiatives are still in the early innings, but we're gaining traction. Our partnership with State Farm continues to evolve and grow.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

We are encouraged by the results we are seeing. Aside from our organic growth opportunities, our recently announced acquisition of Union Bank provides a platform to achieve cost synergies, expand our distribution network in demographically attractive West Coast markets, and leverage our broad product set and leading digital capabilities across a loyal but under-penetrated customer base. All of this will enable us to accelerate revenue and earnings growth and continue to deliver the industry-leading returns on equity that our shareholders have come to expect. In closing, I'd like to thank our employees for all they have done throughout the year. We'll now open up the call to Q&A.

[Operator]

At this time, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Again, that's star one to ask a question.

[Operator]

Your first question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC.

[Gerard Cassidy, Analyst at RBC]

Good morning, Andy. Good morning, Terry.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Morning, Gerard.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Hey, Gerard.

[Gerard Cassidy, Analyst at RBC]

Andy, slide six is very interesting. As you pointed out, it's a new slide. two questions on this slide. You talked about the growth that you are anticipating in that business banking area to get the customers that are business banking only to be both banking and payments. Can you get it to that 50% that you have on the other circle, with the payments area? Can you get it to that area, and how long would it take you to get there? Second, if you put in the Union Bank customers, how large will that 1.1 million grow to?

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Gerard, Union Bank has about 190,000 comparable customers. That would be added to the 1.1 million. I do believe we can get to your first question, that left-hand side to the 50/50 at least. Again, the way we're thinking about this product set is really a combination, a dashboard, if you will, that helps these customers manage their business, payables, receivables, travel activity, payroll, and so forth in one comprehensive viewpoint. I think that will allow us to both deepen the relationships as well as expand. I do believe we can get that 50/50 as well.

[Gerard Cassidy, Analyst at RBC]

Very good. As a follow-up, you guys are obviously well-regarded on your credit through the full cycle, and you pointed out, Terry, that I think the 20 basis points is a record low on net charge-offs. When will things kind of normalize? I hate that word because there's no such thing as normal credit charge-offs. How sustainable are these record low levels, do you think, as we look out over the next 12-24 months?

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. It's a great question, and your point about it really being difficult to predict is right on. When we end up looking at forecasts, et cetera, we do expect it's probably going to stay at these lower levels for a few quarters, and then it's going to start to normalize. Probably doesn't get back there until what we would kind of define as normal, which is kind of that 45 basis points-50 basis points overall, until at least the end of 2022, and probably sometime in 2023. It is very hard to predict.

[Gerard Cassidy, Analyst at RBC]

No, I agree. Thank you, gentlemen.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Morning, Betsy.

[Betsy Graseck, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Hi. Good morning. I had a couple of questions. one was on just loan growth in general, and I wanted to understand where you see some signs of life that might be accelerating as we move into 4Q into next year. I ask because I saw a nice uptick in the consumer side, but commercial seemed to be a little bit weaker. I'm wondering what you're seeing there. Thanks.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. When we end up looking, first of all, maybe to the fourth quarter, we would expect probably modest growth going into the fourth quarter on a linked-quarter basis. If you just kind of look at the puts and takes, and I think that this will play out over time as well. The puts and takes, at least in the near term, is that we would continue to expect to see reasonably good growth in our auto lending business, which has been very strong of late. We would also expect that our credit card balances would start to strengthen. A big part of that is both consumer spend, but we've also been investing in terms of account growth and various sort of promotional activities. That will help to drive it.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Then as government stimulus kind of starts to dissipate, which it's, I think, been slowly doing, we do expect that that payment rate will start to come down. It's really kind of at a historic high right now. As that comes down, credit card balances should strengthen. Certainly on the consumer side, we expect growth in the near term. The C&I, as you said, is a little more challenging. The principal challenge there is that we continue to see a fair amount of payoffs, then PPP forgiveness is also dampening the C&I growth in that particular space. Where we are seeing nice areas of opportunity in C&I is in asset-backed securitization type of lending, mortgage warehouse lines, some supply chain finance activities. Those are all areas that have been of particular strength.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

When we end up looking at kind of middle market space, we're seeing lots of confidence in terms of customers and relatively strong pipelines. We do expect that that is an area of opportunity once we get beyond the drag of PPP. Hopefully that kind of gives you some perspective in terms of some of the puts and takes.

[Betsy Graseck, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

The PPP in the fourth quarter, I think you indicated it would be down obviously Q-on-Q. Is it sizable in the fourth quarter?

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

It ends up coming down, we talked a little bit about the decline this quarter. I think it's going to come down probably half of that again in the fourth quarter. It's hard to tell in terms of does it stabilize at that level or does it come down a little bit further. Our expectation, at least right now, Betsy, is that by the end of the fourth quarter the vast majority of PPP has been forgiven and the impact to, for example, balances and net interest income and margin will be really immaterial when we think about 2022.

[Betsy Graseck, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

In the fourth quarter, the PPP contribution to NII in the fourth quarter, how would you size that?

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

I think it's modest, Betsy. The peak quarter certainly was the third quarter. It becomes very modest in the fourth quarter.

[Betsy Graseck, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Okay. All right, just lastly, as you think about the forward look here on integrating MUFG USA UnionBanCal into your operation, how should we be thinking about the trajectory of the efficiencies here? When you announced that deal and we had that conference call, we obviously heard a lot about the cost saves that you're anticipating getting from the MUFG USA side. I'm wondering, is there a tech angle as well on your legacy platform that will also be enhanced? Does one plus one equal two and a half, for example?

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

I think just to remind you of the time frames, we did actually submit our application for the transaction on October 6th, so that is in. Our expectation is a close sometime late first quarter, early second quarter with a conversion integration in the third into the fourth quarter of 2022. As we talked about on that call, we would expect about 75% of the savings of the efficiencies to occur in that first year of 2023. As we also talked about, Betsy, the real benefit here is we have the platform, and it's a lift and shift from what they do to our platform, which allows for the majority of the cost savings. The second enhancement on that is our platform has more capabilities and will, in my view, have more opportunities, a better customer experience, and more products and services.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

There's also a revenue component as well. In that view, yes, it is more than just 1+1.

[Betsy Graseck, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thanks.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Sure.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Morning, John.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

John. Good morning.

[John Pancari, Analyst at Evercore ISI]

I want to see if you can elaborate a little bit more on the trends you're seeing in your payments business. I know you had mentioned the increased spend activity. I want to see if you can give us a little bit more color on how that breaks out. Separately, maybe if you can elaborate a little bit on what your 2022 expectation is at this time based upon the trends you're beginning to see in the payments side. Thanks.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Maybe let me take the first part, and then Andy can kind of pipe in with respect to what we're seeing as we go into 2022. Maybe as a comparison to 2019, first of all, as we said, the merchant and the card business is now above 2019 levels. In the third quarter, sales were about almost 5% higher than 2019 in terms of merchant processing. If you end up looking at credit, debit card, 20%+ above where it was in 2019. Those have made really nice recoveries. I'd also kind of keep in mind is that when you end up looking at merchant as an example, airline travel, entertainment is still down quite a bit. Probably, I would say flattened a bit in the third quarter simply because of the Delta variant.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

As we kind of think about going forward and as the Delta variant kind of subsides a bit, we would expect that to start to accelerate again. If you end up looking at the card business, as I said, credit card and debit card business, the sales volumes have been quite strong relative to 2019, and that's driven by consumer spend. The one thing that will end up impacting card revenue is the fact that prepaid continues to come down as government stimulus dissipates. By the end of the year, going into 2022, again, the quarter-over-quarter impact will be relatively immaterial. The last thing I would just kind of talk about is on the corporate payments side of the equation. It's pretty much at 2019 levels.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

The travel and entertainment or the T&E spend is still about 50%-55% below 2019, and we would expect that to continue to kind of normalize. We think that there's opportunity still there for that to continue to strengthen. We have seen what I would say other commercial spend strengthening quarter-over-quarter, and we would expect that to continue as well.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

I think that's exactly right, Terry. Just to summarize what Terry said, ex-travel, airlines, and entertainment activity spend is up versus pre-pandemic levels in that 20% range or so, and I would expect that to continue to increase into 2022. I think the real opportunity is in that travel category, which as Terry mentioned, if you think about merchant or card, whatever category you look at, it is down in that 35%-40% range. As that recovers, that's where a lot of opportunity exists as well as what Terry mentioned in the corporate travel and entertainment, which is down closer to 50%.

[John Pancari, Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Okay, great. Thank you. I know you mentioned on the expense side some marketing and business investments, at least for the fourth quarter. Is there anything there that is going to carry through into 2022 as you're putting money into the business? I know you recently launched the buy now, pay later product. Just curious if there's ongoing marketing or business investment that we should consider as we dial in expense expectations for 2022.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. I think as we kind of think about 2022, the level of investment probably doesn't go up significantly from here.

[John Pancari, Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Okay. Got it. All right. Thank you.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Good morning.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Morning, Ebrahim.

[Ebrahim Poonawala, Analyst at Bank of America]

Good morning. Just wanted to follow up with you on comments around loan growth. Specifically, if you can address two things. One, just the outlook for CRE lending as you think about next year, given potential disruptions from the change in work from home, et cetera, how you're approaching CRE lending. On the consumer side, do we need to see a big drawdown in the U.S. savings rate before you actually see consumer lending pick up substantially? As you pointed out, the government stimulus program fading away at enough to see some legs to that growth?

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Maybe to the first question with respect to CRE. We actually saw some growth on a linked-quarter basis in CRE this quarter. The project level pipelines, things like that, are reasonably strong. We kind of think about the next couple of quarters, though, I think what we're seeing in the marketplace is pretty strong competition. We'll have to kind of watch and see what happens with respect to paydowns. Regarding kind of return to office and some of those impacts, when we end up looking at it, maybe in terms of the areas to watch, I think that as return to office occurs, we are starting to see collateral valuations improving. We're starting to see some of those trends improving as well. I think that generally would be a positive thing in terms of CRE investment by underlying developers and financiers.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

I think that for right now, we're just kind of watching what sort of paydown levels occur because of competition. On the consumer side of the equation, we're actually seeing, and we do expect that credit card balances from here start to grow and possibly accelerate as we get into 2022. When you think about customers that are kind of revolving type of customers, I believe that with government stimulus starting to dissipate, that they are going to be looking to credit products in terms of being able to support their consumer spend. We've continued to see relatively strong growth in auto lending, and I would anticipate that that will continue depending upon supply chain impacts associated with chips and things like that. Overall, we're fairly bullish on consumer lending.

[Ebrahim Poonawala, Analyst at Bank of America]

It's helpful, color. Thank you. Just on a separate note, in terms of when you looked at the stickiness of the deposit growth that we've seen over the last 18 months, if you could just talk to your outlook in terms of whether you expect deposit balances to continue to grow. Do you, at any point as you look forward in the next year or two, expect deposit growth to actually turn negative in any meaningful way?

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. Our deposit growth has been reasonably strong. Particularly if you kind of peel back the onion, it's been particularly strong in the consumer and business banking areas. With year-over-year growth of about 16%, linked-quarter growth at about 1% in the third quarter. I would fully expect that a lot of that will stick, depending upon obviously the excess savings rate that we talked about. We're also seeing growth in the wealth management businesses, and we would expect that a fair amount of that would stick as well. As we kind of think about deposits, we think we have been growing what I would call kind of the core balances quite a bit. As liquidity does come out of the system, though, I would expect that we would see some runoff or where investors start to utilize those deposits to invest in CDO, CLO sort of structures.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Within our wealth management investment services business, we would expect to see some runoff.

[Ebrahim Poonawala, Analyst at Bank of America]

Got it. Thanks for taking my questions.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Morning, Scott.

[Scott Siefers, Analyst at Piper Sandler]

Morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Hey, Scott.

[Scott Siefers, Analyst at Piper Sandler]

Hey. I was hoping, Terry, you might be able to address the durability of mortgage revenues at the current level. I thought it was a pretty solid quarter. A little better than I had anticipated, and just was hoping you can address some of the puts and takes- kind of margin origination levels and just overall durability of this quarter's level.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

A great question. Obviously, in the third quarter, we saw a little bit of an uptick with respect to applications because of refinancing activities when interest rates came down. I would say, Scott, that over the course of the last several years, we've been making a significant amount of investment in a couple of different things. One is a strong focus on purchase money area. A fairly significant amount of our volume is on the purchase money side. Home sales, to the extent that that continues to grow, should allow us to hold up really well. Then the second thing is that we've invested a lot in the retail channel and our digital capabilities, and we're taking nice market share in the mortgage banking space.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

While mortgage banking revenue will trend in the same sort of way as kind of the industry, I think that we do have the opportunity to be able to outperform the industry. Andy, what would you add? Agree.

[Scott Siefers, Analyst at Piper Sandler]

Perfect. Thank you. Was hoping for maybe a little more color on expenses, particularly that comment you made earlier about the $60 million seasonal increase in amortization of tax advantages in the fourth quarter. Does that go up and then come all the way back down, or is there a sort of a headwind that emerges in 2022, and then presumably it's kind of a wash from an earnings standpoint, given a corresponding tax impact? How should be thinking about as we go into the fourth quarter

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. Great question. What ends up happening in that particular space is about 60% of the overall production for the year happens in the fourth quarter. If you look kind of historically, we always see a blip in the fourth quarter, and then it comes back down in the first quarter, and then it kind of slowly builds, and then we see another blip in the fourth quarter the following year. It's a seasonal thing in the fourth quarter.

[Scott Siefers, Analyst at Piper Sandler]

Yeah. Okay. Good. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Hey, thanks a lot. Hey, good morning, guys. Terry, can you just make sure we understand the offset to that $60 million in expenses, where we see that in the income statement?

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. Where that ends up flowing through is in the tax rate. Usually what that ends up happening is kind of on a lag basis. You'll start to see the tax rate improving in 2022 as a result of the investments we're making today.

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Right. Okay. In the fourth quarter, you see that in the offset to the 60 in the tax rate as well?

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Very limited in the tax rate in the fourth quarter. That's why we guide. It's really more forward-looking.

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay. Got it. Thank you. Secondly, you mentioned in the press release that fee waivers were down a little bit. Can you give us that update on what they were in the quarter, and also what you need from rates to get rid of the fee waivers?

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

They were just about $70 million in the third quarter, down just $2 million versus the second quarter, principally due to the repo rate. We get about 50% of it back with the first 25 basis points and about 95% of it back with the second 25 basis points.

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay, great. Just last one. In terms of the payments businesses, again, so on merchant, can you just compare and contrast when we see growth in the volumes? I know it's mix dependent, but just with your mix of business, what's the correlation between increases and improvements in merchant vis-a-vis the improvements that we see in the sales volumes? Thanks, guys.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Typically, what's happening right now is a mix change. What's coming back are some of the areas that have a little thinner margin, which is what's causing the differential on sales being up about 5% and fees being down about 5%. I'm using these numbers versus 2019, and if you look at it versus 2020, sales are up about 30% and fees are up about 13%. There'll be a bit of a gap there, partly because of the mix of what's coming back. As we look forward, I would expect a bit of a differential revenue growth being slightly below sales growth on a go-forward basis.

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay. Thanks. Can I ask one more? I forgot to ask about the expense you had on the airline and travel. Was that a one-time update and was that meaningful? Can you tell us how much that was?

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

The expense on airline and travel?

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Yeah.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Are you talking about the investment that we're making on our credit card business or?

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

That goes through. Yeah. That goes through expenses.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

No. It goes principally

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

talking about the merchant airline reserve?

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Exactly.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

No. Oh. Yeah. That has been relatively stable over the last couple of quarters.

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

fundamentally, you've got-

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

People are flying.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

People are starting to fly.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Right. That has been not material.

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Thank you.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Sure.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Hey, Matt.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Hey, Matt.

[Matt O'Connor, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Morning. Can you guys give us an update on your rate sensitivity, the flexibility to add securities and swaps and how the UB deal might impact that?

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. Maybe just the last question first. The Union Bank is a little bit more asset sensitive than we are, and we would expect that they would probably add to our asset sensitivity kind of in that 30-40 basis points kind of range. Where we're at today, if you end up looking at first, second quarter, we're at about 2.8% asset sensitive to a 50 basis point shock. We've been expanding that, Matt, in a couple of different ways. We've been holding more cash, looking for a better kind of investment sort of entry point. That asset sensitivity has been coming up. In addition to that, we have been just looking at different hedge strategies that have been expanding our asset sensitivity as well.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Today, is probably about 350 in 3.5% kind of asset sensitivity, and that's kind of the position that we're at right now. We do have the opportunity, and we have the expectation that rates are going to start moving up, at least on the long end. We're trying to be patient and be in a position to be opportunistic when rates are in the right spot.

[Matt O'Connor, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay, that's helpful. Just separately, a clarification question on payments. When you talk about the seasonality in 4Q, maybe remind us what that is. I guess I was thinking it's on the corporate payments side, which may not be as seasonal this year as normal. Just elaborate on that. I'm kind of digging in just because last quarter you said you thought payments would be flat and ended up being a little bit better than expected, and it seems like it might be a conservative guide again for 4Q. Thank you.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. Usually merchant is flat to down a little bit, so it's seasonally affected in the fourth quarter. Card actually performs a little bit better in the fourth quarter because of holiday sales. CPS is the business that ends up coming down because you have a significant amount of government spend in the third quarter.

[Matt O'Connor, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay. Thank you.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Thanks, Matt.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

[Mike Mayo, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Hi.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Hey, Mike.

[Mike Mayo, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

We got our new slide, the slide six, talking about combining banking with payments. If you could just elaborate a little bit more. I think I heard you say. What are we looking at? We're looking at 28% of banking customers. A lot of banking customers don't use payments, is the bottom line, and you want to get them to use it. Half of your payments customers don't use banking services. You want them to use that, too. I think you said you seek to grow the small business relationships by 15%-20% and the related revenues by 25%-30%. Over what timeframe is that, and how are you going to do that, and when are you rolling out some of the new products that are going to help enable that?

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

You got the numbers correct. This starts at 1.1 million customers. We have about another 190,000 that would be added with Union Bank. The timeframe is the next few years. We'll continue to add to the slide to give you more specifics, including the progress on these numbers, as well as the thinking about revenue. The way we're going to do this is by a combined dashboard and product offering that has both payments and banking on that dashboard to help those businesses run their company. Payables, receivables, travel, payroll, as well as banking products and services. We have been rolling out that dashboard, making enhancement to it as we speak, we'll continue to do it each and every month, each and every quarter. That's the way we think about it.

[Mike Mayo, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Okay. I guess, how do you think about the profit margins on these relationships? It seems like if you provide more one-stop shopping, it should be better service for the customer, and you should be making more on that. Not just the revenues. What would you expect the earnings to increase by? I assume more than the 25%-30%.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yes, they will. I was quoting a revenue number. I would expect the earnings to be higher than that because the marginal cost of many of these products and services is not as high because they go on the platforms we already have established.

[Mike Mayo, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Okay. Then lastly, since we're on the topic of tech, it's been six years since U.S. Bancorp has shown positive operating leverage. You have two quarters in a row. It looks like maybe on a linked-quarter basis you showed. Maybe you won't show that in the fourth quarter. You didn't talk about linked-quarter operating leverage. Can you commit to 2022 having positive operating leverage? I guess there'll be some noise with Union, are you on that trajectory now? If so, why?

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah, Mike. There will be some noise with Union, as you mentioned. It's always our goal. We've made a lot of investments in the company, and those investments are going to do two things. They're going to drive revenue growth, and they're going to also create more efficiencies in terms of our operations. The tech stack modernization in particular creates a less expensive operating environment. I think those are all positives. As we look into 2022, that's always our objective. 2022 will depend a bit upon the yield curve and what happens with rates, but that's our objective.

[Mike Mayo, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

All right. Thank you.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

You bet, Mike.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Morning, Vivek.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Hey, Vivek.

[Vivek Juneja, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Morning. Morning, Andy. Morning, Terry. Couple of questions. Investment securities, they shrank. Any color on the outlook?

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. Our expectation, again, is that when we think about longer-term rates, we do expect them to be moving up given the inflationary pressures and other things that are kind of just in terms of economic growth. We have been holding off with respect to reinvestment of maturities and things like that, and building cash balances kind of to improve our asset sensitivity. We'll look for opportunities to reinvest that in the future as rates start to move.

[Vivek Juneja, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Okay, thanks. Another one, different topic. Did I hear you say that you expect revenue growth in payments fees to be better than sales trends? If so, can you elaborate?

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Vivek, the other way around. The sales number will be a bit higher than the revenue growth, partly because of mix, partly because of the investments we're making. For example, in Card, as we have the sales growth occurring, some of the investments in new business generation comes through and impacts the revenue growth.

[Vivek Juneja, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Okay. Great. Thank you.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Okay. Sure.

[Vivek Juneja, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Bye-bye.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Hi, Bill.

[Bill Carcache, Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Good morning. I wanted to follow up on the relatively softer commercial loan growth that you guys are seeing. Are you hearing anything from your commercial customers that suggests that the depressed line utilization rates are really just an extension of the supply chain problems that they're having? If so, does that suggest that line utilization is unlikely to improve until the supply chain problems are resolved? Any color you can give on that would be great.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. Obviously, the supply chain is impacting customers in terms of their ability to be able to offer products and services, et cetera. It hasn't necessarily come up in topic conversation with them. Certainly, I do think that as supply chain challenges start to resolve themselves, that will create opportunity for us in terms of line utilization and bank financing. It's not something that has been discussed a lot with clients, let's put it that way, or that they brought up.

[Bill Carcache, Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Understood. That's helpful. Separately, on the merchant acquiring business, the Elavon business certainly puts you guys in a unique position to be able to turn on buy now, pay later solutions for your merchant partners in a way that other banks can't. Can you discuss whether you're considering offering buy now, pay later solutions to your merchant customers? Separately, I guess a broader question, how do you guys think about BNPL? Does it pose disintermediation risk to your card business, or is that BNPL customer really more likely someone who typically would not even qualify for a credit card? BNPL is essentially just something that they're using that allows them to turn their debit card into a credit card, and it also helps merchants drive incremental sales. Any thoughts around how you guys are thinking about it and the opportunity, if you see one?

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah, Bill. I think it's a little of both of the ways you described it. First of all, we have a number of test cases going on. We already offer buy now, pay later in our credit card offering. Sometimes a customer wants to have a large purchase specific from a payment plan, that could be a current credit card customer choosing to have a very planned set of payments going forward. At other times, a buy now, pay later can allow for a customer who would otherwise not have a credit card to acquire or purchase something using the buy now, pay later capability. In that sense, you do partner with the merchants to increase the sales base of that merchant portfolio. We're working on all those fronts.

[Bill Carcache, Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Got it. My other questions have been largely addressed, but if I could squeeze in one last one on a separate topic. You guys recently announced that you'll be providing cryptocurrency custody services for your institutional clients. Could you frame the revenue opportunity there? Some large bank CEOs have indicated that they can't provide cryptocurrency custody services, but it would be great, Andy, if you could discuss what's different in the way that USB is thinking about providing custody and what gives you guys comfort doing that at a time when there's still some controversy and I guess unwillingness amongst some large players around providing those services.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah. Let me step back. Our institutional investors are looking to participate in the digital currency market as an investment class. We have a large fund services business that provides fund services, transfer agency, and fund administration to those clients. If an asset class that they choose to have is one that we need to be able to provide a service for, we'll now offer cryptocurrency custody for those fund managers. That's the way we're thinking about it. It is really providing a service that we do for their other asset classes for cryptocurrency. We've selected NYDIG to help us with that from a sub-custodian standpoint. Actually, a number of other banks do that as well, sometimes for their own customer base.

[Bill Carcache, Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Got it. The revenue opportunity? Any high-level color on that?

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

We haven't defined the revenue opportunity. It's early innings of this capability, certainly. It is really providing a full set of services to those customers.

[Bill Carcache, Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Got it. Thank you so much for taking my questions.

[Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp]

Sure.

[Operator]

We have a follow-up question from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Hey, Terry. Sorry for the follow-up, but you gave us the $60 million-$70 million expected decline in PPP in the fourth quarter. I was just wondering. That's the first time you've given us a number. Do you have the base of what it was total PPP net interest income in Q3?

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Yeah, it was about $120 million.

[Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay. Got it. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

At this time, there are no further questions. I'll turn the call back to the speakers for any closing remarks.

[Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp]

Maybe one comment. Jen asked me to clarify something. In the transcript or when I was earlier, I mentioned that the share buyback program would be deferred until second quarter. Actually, it will be the second half of 2022, about a quarter after we finish the closing.

[Jen Thompson, Director of Investor Relations and Economic Analysis at U.S. Bancorp]

Great. Thank you everyone for listening to our earnings call, and please contact the investor relations department if you have any follow-up questions.

[Operator]

Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

Participants

Executives

• Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and CEO
• Jen Thompson, Director of Investor Relations and Economic Analysis
• Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and CFO

Analysts

• Betsy Graseck, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
• Bill Carcache, Analyst at Wolfe Research
• Ebrahim Poonawala, Analyst at Bank of America
• Gerard Cassidy, Analyst at RBC
• John Pancari, Analyst at Evercore ISI
• Ken Usdin, Analyst at Jefferies
• Matt O'Connor, Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Mike Mayo, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities
• Scott Siefers, Analyst at Piper Sandler
• Vivek Juneja, Analyst at JPMorgan