Mid-America Apartment Communities Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
July 28, 2021

Key Takeaways

  • Q2 beats expectations: MAA reported rent growth, same-store NOI and Core FFO all ahead of guidance and raised full-year Core FFO and same-store projections.
  • Sunbelt migration fueling demand: New leases from renters relocating outside the Sunbelt rose to 13% year-to-date, driving momentum in key markets like Phoenix, Tampa and Nashville.
  • Cap rate compression & development focus: Investor cap rates fell another 25 bps QoQ, prompting MAA to pivot from high-priced acquisitions to a $775 million, 3,347-unit development and pre-purchase pipeline.
  • Higher expense guidance: Same-store operating expenses guidance was raised about 50 bps for 2021 due to elevated property-level performance awards and inflationary repair & maintenance costs.
  • Strong balance sheet: MAA maintains a conservative leverage profile with an $800 million development pipeline in line with risk tolerances and stable financing plans.
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Earnings Conference Call
Mid-America Apartment Communities Q2 2021
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the MAA second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterward, the company will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded July 29th, 2021. I will now turn the call over to Tim Argo, Senior Vice President of Finance of MAA, for opening comments.

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

Thank you, Mallory. Good morning, everyone. This is Tim Argo, Senior Vice President of Finance for MAA. With me are Eric Bolton, our CEO, Albert M. Campbell III, our CFO, Robert DelPriore, our General Counsel, Thomas L. Grimes, Jr., our COO, and A. Bradley Hill, our Head of Transactions. Before we begin with our prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of the discussion, company management will be making forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projections. We encourage you to refer to the forward-looking statements section in yesterday's earnings release and our 34 Act filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results. These reports, along with a copy of today's prepared comments and an audio copy of this morning's call, will be available on our website. During this call, we will also discuss certain Non-GAAP financial measures.

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, as well as reconciliations of the differences between Non-GAAP and comparable GAAP measures, can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data, which are available on the For Investors page of our website at www.maac.com. I will now turn the call over to Eric.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. MAA had a strong second quarter with rent growth, Same-Store NOI, and Core FFO results ahead of expectations. Strong job growth and positive migration trends continue to drive higher demand for housing across our Sun Belt markets, and we expect continued strong rent growth. As noted in our earnings release, we are adjusting our performance expectations for the year and meaningfully increasing guidance for Core FFO performance. The various factors that were driving employers and households to the Sun Belt markets before the impact of COVID continue. In addition, the COVID-related recalibrating by both employers and employees about where they choose to do business and live continues to also fuel higher demand trends across the Sun Belt, and those trends are accelerating.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

The new residents that we moved in year to date from outside of our Sun Belt footprint increased another 265 basis points as compared to the first 6 months of last year during the peak of COVID-related relocations. New move-ins from renters relocating to the Sun Belt currently constitute almost 13% of our new leases so far this year and are trending higher. During the second quarter, in a number of markets such as Phoenix, Tampa, Nashville, and Charleston, the percentage of new residents moving to our properties from outside the Sun Belt was even higher. As housing demand grows across the region, investor appetite for apartment real estate in the Sun Belt is also increasing. As Brad will touch on, we continue to see very aggressive bidding in the acquisition market with downward pressure on cap rates.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

MAA is well positioned to harvest the opportunities surrounding our long-time focus on these Sun Belt markets with a uniquely diversified strategy across the region. Strong leasing fundamentals, coupled with extensive redevelopment and repositioning opportunities, along with the continued rollout of new technology initiatives that will drive further margin expansion, have us excited about the momentum from the Same-Store portfolio. In addition, as noted in our earnings release, we continue to expand our external growth platform with earnings-accretive new development and have several other projects currently under contract and in pre-development. As always, I want to send a big thank you and message of well done to our team of MAA associates. Your dedication and commitment to serving our residents and supporting each other is critical to our success and is key in driving our strong performance. Tom?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Thank you, Eric. Good morning, everyone. We saw strong pricing performance across the portfolio during the second quarter. Blended lease-over-lease pricing during the quarter was up 8.2%. As a result, all in-place rents on a year-over-year basis grew to 3.1%. This is more than double the 1.3% growth rate of the first quarter. Average effective rent growth is our primary driver, and with the current blended pricing momentum, we expect it to continue to strengthen through the remainder of the year. In addition, average daily occupancy for the quarter increased to 96.4%. As outlined in the release, we saw steady progress on our product upgrade initiatives. This includes our interior unit redevelopment program, as well as the installation of our smart home technology package that includes mobile control of lights, thermostat, and security, as well as leak detection.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

For the full year 2021, we expect to complete just over 6,000 interior unit upgrades and install 22,000 smart home packages. We're also in the final stages of completing the repositioning work on our first eight full reposition properties and have another eight that will begin this year. Leasing activity for July has been strong. New lease-over-lease pricing month to date for July is running close to 17% ahead of rent on the prior lease. Renewal lease pricing in July is running 9% ahead of the prior lease.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Priorly. As a result, blended pricing for the portfolio is up 12% so far in July. Average daily occupancy for the month is currently 96.1, which is 80 basis points better than July of last year. Exposure, which is all vacant units plus notices through a 60-day period, is just 7.1%. This is 100 basis points better than prior year. This supports our ability to continue to prioritize rent growth and indicates that new lease pricing will peak seasonally later than historic norms. We are well-positioned as we move into the third quarter. I'd like to echo Eric's comments and thank our teams as well. They've shown tremendous adaptability and resilience over the last year. I'm proud of them and excited for their progress in 2021. Thanks. I'll turn it over to Brad.

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone. The strong investor demand for multifamily properties in our footprint that began prior to COVID continues to strengthen today. Transaction volume is up significantly since the first quarter, as investors look to buy into the strong rent growth outlook in our Sun Belt markets. Strong leasing fundamentals coupled with robust investor demand have accelerated pricing growth, putting additional downward pressure on cap rates. Cap rates on deals we underwrote in the second quarter have compressed another 25 basis points from first quarter, and the compression has accelerated in the last 30 days, pushing cap rates down approximately 100 basis points since first quarter of 2020. We like the overall balance and unique diversification of our Sun Belt-oriented portfolio and have no need to change our market weightings by participating in the aggressive pricing market for existing properties.

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

We will continue to focus our capital deployment efforts on new development and pre-development opportunities, which provide higher yields, higher growth, and a much lower basis than the acquisition opportunities we're seeing in the current market. We continue to make progress on our development pipeline. As noted in our release, we closed and started construction on 2 pre-development projects in Q2, bringing our pre-development and development pipeline, both under construction and in lease up to 3,347 units at a total cost of $775 million. In addition to these 2 projects, we have a number of other development sites owned or under contract and hope to start construction on several projects later this year and into 2022. Our pre-development opportunities are in Denver, Salt Lake City, Tampa, Raleigh, and Nashville, all existing markets within our portfolio footprint.

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

We continue to see very strong leasing demand in our region of the country, and our recently completed properties in Dallas and Phoenix that are currently in lease up reflect this strong demand. Both properties continue to perform very well with rents and leasing velocity at or above pro forma. All of our under-construction projects remain on budget and on schedule despite continued cost pressures and supply chain disruptions. Our under-construction projects have fixed cost construction contracts, so they remain on budget, but we are seeing continued cost pressure on new projects. While the lumber-related run-up in construction costs that we saw in the first half of the year has begun to mitigate a bit, we are seeing cost pressures related to other commodities that we will continue to monitor.

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

Supply chain disruptions related to appliances, cabinets, windows, and electrical components are occurring, but our teams have done a great job working around these issues with very minimal impact to our delivery schedules. As part of our planned dispositions for 2021, we exited the Jackson, Mississippi market at the end of the second quarter with the sale of our four properties. For these assets, with an average age of 36 years, we achieved strong pricing of $160 million, which was above the top end of our expectations. We are early in the process, we're in the market with three other properties that we expect to close before the end of the year. That's all I have in the way of comments. I'll turn it over to Al.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

Thank you, Brad. The strong second quarter operating performance produced Core FFO that was at the top end of our prior guidance range, or $0.08 per share above the midpoint, which also supports improved performance expectations over the remainder of the year. As you saw in our release, we are significantly increasing our guidance for both Core FFO and Same-Store performance for the full year. The increases are primarily based on projections of continued high occupancy levels remaining essentially full between 95.5%-96% over the remainder of the year, and continued strong rental pricing growth over the second half, particularly during the third quarter, with some typical seasonal moderation expected in the fourth quarter. This supports a revised revenue growth projection for the full year of 4% at the midpoint of guidance, which is 200 basis points above the prior midpoint.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

Same-store operating expenses have largely been in line with our expectations for the year. As outlined early in the year, we expected expenses to be somewhat elevated during the first half, mainly related to the impact of our Double Play program, the difficult prior year insurance renewal, as well as some continued pressure on real estate taxes, which represent about 40% of our total operating costs overall. The growth rate for total operating expenses over the second half is still expected to moderate as originally projected, with some impact from increased property-level performance-based awards and inflationary pressures on repair and maintenance costs, driving an increase to the midpoint of expected growth by about 50 basis points for the full year. Finally, our balance sheet remains very strong. As Brad outlined in his comments, our development opportunities continue to grow.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

We expect our total pipeline of development communities in construction and lease-up, comprised of both in-house and pre-development deals, to end the year just over $800 million, which is well within our defined risk tolerances, while we expect the new high-yielding projects to be very accretive to earnings and value in 2023 and beyond.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

Our financing plans continue to include some activity over the second half of the year. Current market conditions appear to be stable and strong, supporting good pricing expectations across the maturity curve. We also continue to have positive discussions with the rating agencies regarding our corporate rating. We believe our current ratings are fairly conservative, and we look forward to continued discussions with all agencies over the next few quarters. Mallory, we'll now turn the call back over to you for any questions.

Operator

We'll now open the call up for questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and 1 on your touch-tone phone. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. We will take our first question from Nick Yulico from Scotiabank.

Nick Yulico
Nick Yulico
Managing Director at Scotiabank

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. In terms of the new guidance on blended lease growth that you have for the year, I guess it's implying some strengthening here, which you've seen in July, and I assume for the rest of the third quarter, it's assumed. Can you just maybe just give us a feel for how that's going to look in the back half of the year? As well, if those numbers are still very high, sort of single digit, double digit numbers, what does that mean in terms of the benefit that you're starting to get for the lease roll as we're thinking about next year's results?

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

Hey, Nick, this is Al. I can start with that, and maybe Tim and I can join on some of those details. I think, obviously, as you saw in the second quarter, we had tremendous trend coming from the first quarter. Our average pricing, our blended pricing was 2.7 for the first quarter, 8.2 in the second quarter. As you look at the back half and you take the guidance that we put out of 6.5%-7.5% for the full year, we're obviously assuming continued strength in that. As I mentioned a bit in my calls, primarily in the third quarter, because July, we've seen, and it's already very strong. We expect that to continue. We do expect some normal seasonal moderation in the fourth quarter, but still have strong numbers, but that blends down.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

You can do the math on that. You're somewhere around the 8% for the back half of the year when you do the math on our new guidance. That's what, obviously, with continued strong and stable occupancy that we talked about, those are the under guidance of that.

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

Yeah, I'll add to that, Nick, to kind of answer your second question about sort of what the baked in is. The way we think about that is if you take sort of half of pricing in one year and half of the pricing in the next year, it should sort of average out to the full year Effective Rent Growth. To Al's point about our 7% blended lease-over-lease for the year, call it half of that, we expect to blend into 2022. Certainly setting up some good strength for next year.

Nick Yulico
Nick Yulico
Managing Director at Scotiabank

Okay, great. Thanks so much. Second question is just on if we look at some of the industry data coming out on markets such as Atlanta, Tampa, Phoenix, which you also highlighted as being very strong markets, and I think you also said that the migration into some of those markets from outside the Sun Belt is higher than other parts of the portfolio. Which may be a factor in this question, I guess what I'm wondering is, when we look at the data, it feels like those markets right now, if you blend what's going on with rent growth this year and last year, is actually looking better than pre-COVID.

Nick Yulico
Nick Yulico
Managing Director at Scotiabank

Maybe that migration is a benefit or there's other factors. Just wanted to hear your thoughts on some of these really high rent growth markets they didn't have concessions. This is pure rent growth you're seeing. It looks stronger than 2019. You could talk a little bit about what you think is driving that excess rent growth now versus pre-COVID.

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

Nick, it is economy first. We've seen those never let up the gas on the growth, and so that's continued to roll on in those larger markets. Secondarily, these move-ins from out-of-market has grown over COVID levels, and over prior year. Even somewhere like Phoenix, 21% of our move-outs were out-of-market. Tampa, 18% out-of-market. Nashville, 15% out-of-market, and Savannah, 16%. Those are substantially higher than we saw even last year, which we believe it sort of accelerated the trend. It is those items, and you're seeing folks follow jobs announcements from places like Oracle, Tesla, Microsoft, and places like that.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Nick, this is Eric. A statistic that I'll share with you that Tim and some others pulled together that I think is pretty telling. If you look at the MAA markets collectively, we have about 28% of the households in America live in our markets, 28%. You look at where new household formation is occurring, our markets constitute 42% of projected new household formations, and that 42% is expected to grow to 44% next year. There's a lot of factors that come into why the household formation trends are so much more robust in the Sun Belt. A lot of them you know, but I think that the trends that were there before COVID are still there.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

I think COVID has sort of caused, as I mentioned, companies and employers and households to sort of recalibrate their thinking a little bit about where they choose to live. I think that has just added more fuel to the demand curve.

Nick Yulico
Nick Yulico
Managing Director at Scotiabank

All right. Thanks, Eric, and everyone else.

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

Thank you, Nick.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Neil Malkin, Capital One Securities. Your line is open.

Neil Malkin
Neil Malkin
Director, REIT Equity Analyst at Capital One Securities

Hey, good morning, everyone.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Hey, Neil.

Neil Malkin
Neil Malkin
Director, REIT Equity Analyst at Capital One Securities

Great quarter. I'm slow clapping you over here for the just amazing results. Just continue to blow my mind. First, the IRT and the Sedlak merger. That portfolio seemed to be a little under the radar, but pretty sizable. Mostly markets that overlap nicely with your portfolio. Some B quality stuff in there, so opportunity to do some highly accretive redevelopment. Just wondering if you looked at that deal, and if there are any others like it out there and your thoughts on M&A using your stock price, given its very attractive currency at this point in the cycle, and given the strength that you probably expect for the Sunbelt market for quite some time.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Hey, Neil, it's Eric. We are somewhat familiar with that portfolio given the, as you mentioned, the large overlap with a number of our markets. Candidly, that is not something that we looked at and is not something that we would have looked at, simply because I really saw or didn't see meaningful strategic value in trying to pursue that. The only new markets for us would've been in Indiana, Oklahoma, and their small exposure in Chicago. Frankly, those are not markets we're really interested in pursuing. In addition, the in-place financing on the portfolio was not really a good fit with our balance sheet strategy and where we're working to get the balance sheet position to. Absent a solid strategic rationale, or some form of an assessment that a big opportunity really makes us stronger in some way.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Just getting a little size, is not something we're really interested in trying to do. We're looking to strengthen the platform. We're looking to make ourselves better if we do something strategic, not just get a little bit bigger. Certainly, absent some sort of a strategic, compelling reason to do it, wading into this super competitive acquisition market and paying top dollar in this environment is frankly just something we weren't interested in doing.

Neil Malkin
Neil Malkin
Director, REIT Equity Analyst at Capital One Securities

Yeah. Thanks. Appreciate your comment there. Other one from me is, you looked at especially this quarter, EQR, AVB, the sort of coastal bellwethers, have both made pretty candid comments about the regulatory challenging, less attractive coastal markets, California, New York, et cetera. Have started to, and to use your word, wade into your markets, your backyard. Obviously that's a positive in terms of confirming your thesis on your market. What do you think the biggest, I guess, threats or risks and then potential opportunities could be now that some of the big boy well-capitalized REITs are starting to sniff around your territory?

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Well, it's a big region and a lot of markets across the region. MAA has a fairly, in addition to a long history, focus for the last 27 years on this region and on these markets. We also have, I think, a very unique approach to how we diversify across the region. So we think that the long history we have on the region, the in-depth, deep knowledge we have of the markets and the sub-markets, probably continues to create some level of advantage for us. I think, over time platform capabilities associated with scale and revenue management, cost of capital, and market knowledge to support both operations and to also to support disciplined new growth can drive competitive advantages and long-term outperformance. As I say, with a 27-year history, focused on this region, I continue to like our chances.

Neil Malkin
Neil Malkin
Director, REIT Equity Analyst at Capital One Securities

Yeah. Okay. Appreciate that. Thank you, guys. Just tremendous quarter.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Thanks, Neil.

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

Thank you, Neil.

Operator

We'll take our next question from John Kim, BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

John Kim
John Kim
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask about your guidance for blended lease-over-lease pricing for the year. It actually seems conservative at 7%, just given what you printed in Q2, and then 16% July so far. On top of that, Tom, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that new lease pricing will peak seasonally later than normal. Can you elaborate on that comment? Also if you really anticipate the blended lease-over-lease pricing to slow significantly from what you have so far in July.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Let me start with that, John, and maybe Tim Argo and Tom Grimes can jump in on some of that too. In terms of where we have our guidance, if you look at what we're projecting for the back half of the year, we projected a strong performance. We're taking the third quarter, as we talked about. Expect that to continue sort of July's trends into that. We do expect some modest-

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

Seasonal moderation in the fourth quarter, that's normal. Typically, that happens. I'll say this, we're still projecting a fourth quarter that's well above probably anything we've recently done in recent history, for sure. It's strong, but there's just less demand in that period. Good thing is that we've designed it so there's less leases being signed as well, so it has less of an impact as well. We do expect some. Just to give you a flavor. You could do the math of what we're talking about, but you're talking more like 10% or more expectations in the third quarter, moderating down to 6 or so in the fourth. Still a very strong projection leading to the full year blend that we're talking about.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

It's very good to see these trends, but we'll reflect to what we really think is going to happen over the full year.

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

One point of clarification, John. The July is 12% on blended. I think you might have said 16 or 17. The new lease was that, but the blended was 12%. We're expecting sort of August to be pretty similar to that and then start to trend down as demand typically starts to wane a bit.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

John, one quick way to think about it is, blended a combination both new and renewal pricing year to date through the first half of the year was 6%. The forecast assumes that blended performance over the back half of the year, even with seasonal factors, is 8%. It's still positive and good, and we think it's definitely reasonable to work off that kind of assumption.

John Kim
John Kim
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Okay, thank you. For the guidance we're seeing for expenses, it went up for the year. A lot of that is due to higher repairs and maintenance. Are you accelerating any of these costs, just given the strength in the market? Are you doing anything different as far as expensing versus capitalizing certain items?

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

No changes-

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

No.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

in expenses and capitalizing. We would expect repair and maintenance costs to come down in the back half of the year just because of the odd comparisons this year. We have some inflationary pressure on some specific items in that, but that's in Tim and Al's guidance for the full year.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

There's 2 things in that. First, it's a pretty modest increase in the range overall of 50 basis points, John, but there's really 2 things in that. 1 is property-level performance awards for the strong performance that we're seeing expected for the year. We're very glad to see it and proud of our teams for producing that. There'll be some of that.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

That's the bulk of it.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

That's probably the bulk of it. Then you have some inflationary pressures on repair and maintenance supplies and things that we do, which is typical across, I would say, everybody right now in the full market, but pretty small overall.

John Kim
John Kim
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Brad Heffern
Brad Heffern
Director at RBC Capital Markets

Yeah. Hey, everyone. Thanks. Since we're on the topic of guidance, can you just talk through the 3Q guide a little bit? Obviously, in the second quarter, you have the $1.69 for Core FFO, and then the midpoint of the third quarter range is $1.68. Is there some sort of offsetting factor to this strong blended rate growth that you're seeing?

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

I think if you look historically over the last several years, in terms of Core FFO, third quarter is usually sort of the low point. It's really just with all of the activity going on in the third quarter, the expenses are at their highest point. We're obviously getting the highest rents as well, just the seasonality of expenses usually drive. I think honestly, like I said.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

Yeah.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

several years, Q3 is probably our low point in terms of Core FFO.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

Normal pattern.

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

structural driving that other than the normal patterns.

Brad Heffern
Brad Heffern
Director at RBC Capital Markets

Okay, got it. Going back to the first question on the call. This double-digit strength we're seeing in a lot of your markets, how long do you think that goes on for, broadly? Is demand just so strong that it won't taper until you see either demand fall off or supply pick up? Is there sort of just a kind of one-timer pricing of the rent level that these markets can bear?

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Fundamentally, it comes down to just supply-demand sort of balance, and we certainly continue to see evidence that the demand level is going to remain strong other than sort of normal seasonal patterns that we've alluded to. It's hard for me to point to any sort of definitive reason as to why the demand side of the equation is likely to show any significant moderation. I think that if you want to think about some level of catch-up occurring, if you will, as a consequence of what went on last year. We went back and took a look at what we expected to occur last year in the second quarter in our pricing before we knew about COVID. Obviously last year during COVID, we came in short of those original expectations to the tune of about 250 basis points in terms of blended lease-over-lease pricing.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

If one wants to think about this year's performance has somewhat of an extra juice to it as a consequence of recovery from last year. From a lease-over-lease perspective, I would argue that probably no more than 200, 250 basis points of that is a function of recovery from last year. Overwhelmingly, what's driving it is just all the factors that are driving the really strong demand side of the business in terms of employers and employees finding reasons to come to the region, and then new jobs just continuing to form here. As I pointed out a moment ago, with our markets constituting collectively 42% of the household formation, projected household formations in 2021. That's growing to 44% based on the information we get from economy.com and some of these other services.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

It suggests to us that the demand side of the equation is likely to remain pretty robust. We do think that it's unlikely for all the reasons Brad alluded to surrounding

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

What's going on with construction costs, land sites, and things of that nature. We think that we probably see supply levels remain fairly elevated like they are now going into next year. It's hard for me to envision supply levels picking up materially from where they are. As we sit here today, I think we're pretty optimistic that we're going to see pretty good favorable demand-supply relationship for us going into next year.

Brad Heffern
Brad Heffern
Director at RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Nicholas Joseph, Citi.

Nicholas Joseph
Nicholas Joseph
Head of US Real Estate and Lodging Research Team at Citi

Thanks. You guys talked about the competition for assets and all the new entrants into the market. Are you seeing a similar level of competition for developments in pre-sale, or is it a little different in stabilized properties?

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

Nick, this is Brad. I would say that it's certainly aggressive. There's certainly a lot of equity that's looking to put money out in development. I would say it's a little less. I think the demand for immediate earning assets is a bit higher than the demand for assets that are not going to produce for three years. It's certainly aggressive out there with a lot of capital, but I would say it is less in the development arena and in the JV arena than it is in the acquisition market.

Nicholas Joseph
Nicholas Joseph
Head of US Real Estate and Lodging Research Team at Citi

Thanks. You talked about the population movement a lot with people entering the market. When you look at the move-outs, and obviously turnover is still low, are you seeing people leave the markets or any changes for a reason to move out for the data that you collect?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

No. We're seeing a little bit higher move-outs, slightly higher on home buying, but primarily job transfer, which is kind of what you would expect, especially comparing to last year when there was less of that kind of movement. 4% of our move-outs are to out-of-area, that's down from 5%. Once people move here, they tend to stay in the area. Job transfers and home buying generate the change.

Nicholas Joseph
Nicholas Joseph
Head of US Real Estate and Lodging Research Team at Citi

Thanks.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Alex Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

Alex Goldfarb
Alex Goldfarb
Analyst at Piper Sandler

Hi. Thank you for taking the question. When you look at your move-ins this quarter and the demographics of the move-ins, are they similar to your current portfolio, and do they vary from the out-of-state movers versus within the same markets?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

When we look at it, one thing that is interesting that is occurring, Alex, is you would think with the large run-up in pricing opportunity for us that that would stress on affordability. We're seeing affordability stay in that 19%-20% range, or the rent-to-income ratio, I should say, in that 19%-20% range. The incomes that are coming in are higher. That gives us plenty of room to run in that area.

Alex Goldfarb
Alex Goldfarb
Analyst at Piper Sandler

Got it. Thank you very much. Moving to the Smart Home tech side, you've talked in the past about the A/B testing and potentially getting some top-line views from including the Smart Home technology. Have you updated that analysis, and are you still seeing the same sort of top-line benefits there?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Yes, we're getting a very solid $20-$25 bump in that. What we'll begin to see as well, we really underwrote on the thing that we knew we would get, or we felt strongly about, was the revenue opportunity. We're beginning to see the benefits of our mobile maintenance plan, which we just installed mobile maintenance or upgraded mobile maintenance for the portfolio in the second quarter. That will begin to create some efficiency for us on the expense side on leak detection, as well as just saving time between units, responding to calls real-time, those kind of things.

Alex Goldfarb
Alex Goldfarb
Analyst at Piper Sandler

Got it. Thank you very much.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Thank you, Alex.

Operator

We will take our next question from Amanda Sweitzer from Baird. Line's open.

Amanda Sweitzer
Amanda Sweitzer
Vice President, Senior Research Analyst at Baird

Thanks. Good morning. You've gotten plenty of questions on guidance. I did want to ask about your occupancy outlook that's embedded for the full year. It sounds like you may have seen a slight increase in turnover more recently, given the sequential occupancy decline in July. How are you thinking about balancing rate and occupancy for the remainder of the year? Do you think you've reached the structurally high level of occupancy for your portfolio in the second quarter?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Yeah.

Albert M. Campbell III
CFO at MAA

Amanda, I'll start with that, and then Tom, you can. The way we look at it is we've talked about in the past, around the 96-point level, which we are. We're talking about for the back half of the year, high 95s to mid-96 range that we're projecting. That's essentially full, given our turnover and the way things are right now in our portfolio. We're projecting to be stable at that, very strong. To give ourselves in the back half, a little bit of room to continue pushing on price. We certainly didn't want to expect occupancy to continue growing from where it is because we'd like to continue putting these good prices in the portfolio. That's what's underlying our expectations and our forecasting. I mean.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Amanda, on balancing price and occupancy, I think we've always believed that when there is an opportunity to build strength in embedded rent growth, that we should take that. That is something that we did before the pandemic. We really pushed that, and that gave us higher ERG or effective rent growth for all in place ahead of the downturn, which allowed us to weather the storm. Again, we're in an opportunity where we can push rate, and that is, I would say, primary. Honestly, I'd be happy from 95.5% to 96.5%, and I think we were a little higher in second quarter, even with the rent increase than frankly we wanted to be.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Given where our current occupancy is, and more importantly, where exposure is, I would sort of expect us to stay in that 96.1 and above range for the next couple of months. We are building strength now, and the opportunity to really help our future is to grow rate right now, and we're headed that way.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Amanda, this is Eric. One final point I'll make on that. We do monitor very closely the percentage of our turnover that's occurring because of the rent increase, and we track that. In the second quarter, the move-outs that we had due to the rent increase were about 7% of our move-outs. You compare and contrast that to 2019, a more normalized year, and our move-outs due to rent increase range anywhere from 7%-10%. We've monitored pretty closely. If we saw move-outs jump up a lot because of rent increase, then we would start to taper back a little bit. At this point, no real change occurring.

Amanda Sweitzer
Amanda Sweitzer
Vice President, Senior Research Analyst at Baird

That's helpful. Certainly a good problem to have. On development, how are you thinking about staging the construction starts for those pre-development projects you discussed? As you think about adding additional projects to that pre-development pipeline, are you still finding the best opportunities in some of those longer-term repurposing and permitting opportunities that you've talked about?

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

This is Brad. Amanda, certainly in terms of the staging, the developments that we're working on now, we've got a pipeline right now of about $800 million or so that we're really working through, both owned sites and then sites under contract, and that we're working on pre-development on, and then also our pre-development platform. Given where we are in the cycle and given how hard it is to find sites and get sites entitled, the staging of those, you can't perfectly map those out, frankly. A lot of the developments that we're doing in-house are for sites that need to be rezoned, so it takes some time to get through that process. Frankly, really what we're doing on those is working through the pre-development process and our approvals.

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

Really once we get to a point where we can have a GMP and known construction prices locked in that's acceptable to us, we look to move forward with those opportunities. I would say the pre-development timeline is a bit more truncated because, again, we're putting off some of the risk associated with the pre-development work to the developers that we're partnering with. Those have a little bit shorter time period on them. Sometimes, not all the time. We're able to work those in to our starts a little quicker than stuff that we're doing in-house. A long way of saying, we can't really perfectly map that out. It's really once we get costs and approvals and everything behind us on those projects. What was the second part of your question, Amanda?

Amanda Sweitzer
Amanda Sweitzer
Vice President, Senior Research Analyst at Baird

Just in terms of future opportunities to add to your pre-development pipeline, are you still finding some of the best opportunities in those longer-term repurposing or permitting opportunities that you've talked about in the past?

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

Yeah, we certainly have opportunities there. I think I mentioned a moment ago, we've got about $800 million that we think we can repopulate here, and that's a mixture of stuff that is on balance sheet and then also our pre-development. The sites that our development team are working on now sometimes are 1.5 years to get through the development process. It's taking a little bit of time to do that on some of them. Those are great opportunities. I'll say it is becoming increasingly difficult to find sites. It's becoming increasingly difficult to get sites zoned and permitted and really work through that process. Those are taking a bit longer, but we feel really good about the pipeline that we have and then the ability to repopulate that as we go forward.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Amanda, this is Eric. I would add that we do think that we see the competition for opportunities that involve rezoning or that involve a much longer process. The competition for those sites is not quite as fierce as what you find in something that is shovel-ready, if you will, and ready to go. A lot of the particularly among the smaller developers and among some of the private capital coming into the market, they have a mandate that doesn't allow them to take quite that much time often. We do find better opportunities more often than not in those projects that require a little bit more time.

Amanda Sweitzer
Amanda Sweitzer
Vice President, Senior Research Analyst at Baird

That's helpful. Thanks for the time.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Yeah. Thank you, Amanda.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open.

Austin Wurschmidt
Austin Wurschmidt
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Just curious if you mark-to-market and trend out rents on your existing development pipeline, what the difference or upside between the yield that you underwrote and what that might suggest? Do you think that the projects could stabilize ahead of the timeline that you've outlined in the release?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Austin, this is Brad. I'd say broadly, again, we're seeing strength, as I mentioned in my comments, in our lease-ups, and we're seeing that both in velocity and we're seeing that also in rate. I would say if we trended that out, we're going to see some good positive momentum in the yields that we have there. Certainly for the 2 that we have in lease-up right now, that's the case. The other ones that are under construction, where pre-leasing is kind of just starting, it's a little too early to say on those, but we're certainly seeing really good momentum as we go forward there. In terms of the velocity, we did move up the expected stabilization date of our NOVEL Midtown Phoenix by 2 quarters.

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

Again, that market has been extremely strong, and the lease-up is going very well and ahead of expectations, so we have moved that date up.

Austin Wurschmidt
Austin Wurschmidt
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital

Not to put you on the spot, could you quantify what the yield upside is? I think you've said 6% is sort of the average yield across the pipeline. Do you think is it 50 basis points or something less in any sense? Put a range around it.

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

No, I wouldn't say 50 basis points, but I would say it's, call it 20 basis points at this point. Again, as we get into the NOVEL Midtown deals, 46% occupied and it's too early to put numbers on that. Broadly, I would say it's, 20+ basis points.

Austin Wurschmidt
Austin Wurschmidt
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital

Got it. As far as redevelopment, I think the average increase was around 11%, but clearly the new lease rates you're achieving across the portfolio are even higher. What do you think the premium is you're getting on redevelopment today?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

I think the premium's right at 11%, honestly, because the way we really try to understand what the market will pay for the premium and match that, and then let the market rate push us up from there. Our redevelopment unit may be getting $200 more. 100 of that is the redevelopment premium, 100 of it is market growth.

Austin Wurschmidt
Austin Wurschmidt
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital

Got it. One last quick one for me is what's the loss to lease today on the portfolio?

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

Well, Austin, you can think about that in a lot of different ways. Kind of talking to Nick earlier, the way we really think about that, because it can be very seasonal depending on what time of the year you're looking at. I think we're expecting a 7% blended lease-over-lease for this year. That obviously, half of that or so carries in the next year. Certainly in a good spot, and it'll depend on kind of where the full year lease-over-lease ends up.

Austin Wurschmidt
Austin Wurschmidt
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital

Okay. That's fair. Thanks, guys.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Thank you.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Robert Stevenson from Janney. Your line's open.

Robert Stevenson
Robert Stevenson
Analyst at Janney

Good morning, guys. Tom, can you talk a little bit about the markets and first half versus second half and which ones you expect to see the strongest incremental growth, for the first half of the year to the second half of the year? Which ones, because either they've had such a big pop already, are going to wind up seeing the least sort of incremental growth as you move forward here?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

That's a relative question, Rob. At this point in July, our leasing growth has got 6 markets below 10% blended rent growth. The slower of those are D.C. and Houston, which are, I think, 5.2% and 5.7% for blended rent growth, but that's encouraging progress for those. I don't see any market where it's slowing, to be honest with you, in terms of the market. We'll have seasonal trends, as you're well aware of, but places like Phoenix and Tampa continue to accelerate, and places like Atlanta and Austin have really picked it up recently, and we're seeing that on into Dallas and across the portfolio. The large majority of our markets are now pushing higher than 10% blended rent growth.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

I don't see any sort of tipping point that's been reached other than seasonality, and of course, Eric made the point earlier of we're pushing through stout renewal increases, and we're getting less pushback than we have historically.

Robert Stevenson
Robert Stevenson
Analyst at Janney

Okay. Al, when did or when does the insurance renew? Did you get hit with any type of major increase on the last renewal, just simply because of higher construction costs on replacing units or finishes, et cetera?

Tim Argo
SVP of Finance at MAA

Yeah, I'll answer that. Yeah, we did our renewal effective July 1, and it was roughly, call it 14%, 15% year-over-year, which is right in line with what we were expecting. We didn't see anything necessarily driven specifically by development costs. Frankly, the Winter Storm Uri is really what drove it more than anything. I think we would've had a lower without.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

We feel like we're in a good position now and are taking the appropriate amount of risk on balance sheet, and expect to see that continue to decline going forward.

Robert Stevenson
Robert Stevenson
Analyst at Janney

Okay. One last one. Given your markets, how many units do you have that you'd evict if you could, but are legally prevented from doing so? How many units overall in the portfolio are currently in the eviction process?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Rob, I'd say on that, it's very limited, and you can see that with our collections of 99.2% right now for the second quarter. It's been strong. I don't expect the change in rules on evictions to change anything much. We're working closely with relief fund folks to manage that process. Honestly, I don't see that it makes a big difference going forward.

Robert Stevenson
Robert Stevenson
Analyst at Janney

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Richard Anderson, SMBC. Your line's open.

Richard Anderson
Analyst at SMBC

Thanks. Good morning. The ultimate sign of fundamental strength, not that we need a hint, is when new lease growth is greater than renewal lease rents. I'm curious if in the past, when that condition has existed with MAA, how long does it last? Is there anything strategically you're doing for an incoming new resident that is perhaps driving that level of growth relative to renewals?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Rich, what I'll say is, it is also a sign that we have opportunity on renewal. Vice versa. I think you'll see that delta begin to narrow, as we reprice going out. July was higher than the second quarter. We'll see that continue to grow a bit. The new lease rate really, frankly, gives us good cover to begin to move that up. Again, as Eric mentioned, we have a low pushback on renewal accept rates because they can get out and see the housing market pricing's very transparent, and they know they've got a good deal right now.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Rich, in addition to what Tom alludes to in terms of the gap closing just as a natural consequence of us repricing on renewals faster. There's a timing difference between how we price new leases versus how we price renewals, which you alluded to. In addition to that, frankly, what defines how long the opportunity continues is a function of just basic sort of demand-supply characteristics. As I've alluded to, as we sit here today, we don't see anything near term over the next year or so that's likely to disrupt kind of this strong environment that we find ourselves in. We think that we're going to keep pushing hard today on the pricing increases for new move-ins. Today, we are pricing renewals for what we will achieve 60 days, 90 days from now.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

When we get 60 days, 90 days from now, we'll be pricing those renewals at a steeper rate. As you say, it's an indication of real strong fundamentals, and we don't see anything near term that's likely to disrupt that.

Richard Anderson
Analyst at SMBC

When you mentioned early on the 13% new leasing is coming from outside the Sun Belt, and you gave some examples of some markets that are above that. What was that percentage kind of 2019? What would it be typically? I'm curious how much it's grown to that 13% level.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

I'll give you an example of it. In Atlanta, as an example, 12% of our move-ins came from outside the Sun Belt. In 2019, that was a little over 8%. In a market like Phoenix, which is incredibly strong in terms of move-ins from outside the Sun Belt, that was over 21% so far this year. Compared to the same period in 2019, that was a little over 18%. It's about a 411 basis point jump from 2019 in Phoenix. We saw a big jump in Tampa. From 2019, it's about over 18% today versus 13% in 2019. 380 basis point improvement. It varies a bit by market, but going back to 2019, before COVID, move-ins from outside the Sun Belt are up. Let's see, looking at our markets here.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

The only market that I see where the move-ins from outside the Sun Belt are actually down is one, and that's Huntsville, Alabama.

Richard Anderson
Analyst at SMBC

Okay. Just a real quick last question. A lot of talk about the cadence between suburbs and urban, coastal versus Sun Belt, all those types of geographical dynamics. Do you see within your portfolio any particular strength where the population is kind of denser? Do you have better performance there versus a more rural-looking area, or is it just the whole place is great?

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Broadly, the whole place is good, Rich. The delta between urban, suburban, and A B was wider during COVID. Both have narrowed. A and B assets, the difference between the two is only 130 basis points, but it's 7.4 for our lagging A and 8.7 for our leading B. Those are both numbers I'm happy to have. The same real story, it's almost the same for sort of urban inner loop versus the suburban assets. It's 7.5 and 8.7. Both are strong, and there's just a little bit more of a supply headwind in the urban markets, but we don't see them as less desirable.

Richard Anderson
Analyst at SMBC

Got it. Thanks very much.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Thank you, Rich.

Operator

We'll take our next question from John Pawlowski, Green. The line's open.

John Pawlowski
John Pawlowski
Analyst at Green Street

Great. Thanks so much. Brad, would you mind sharing the cap rate on the Jackson, Mississippi exit and the anticipated pricing on the handful of upcoming dispositions?

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

We look at this a couple of ways. One is the cap rate on MAA's trailing 12 numbers. That was about a 5.4%. Looked at from a buyer's perspective with kind of adjusted taxes and insurance, it was about a 4.7% cap rate. Going forward on the 3 that we're looking to sell, both of the metrics are very similar because there's not a big reevaluation of taxes on those. We're looking in the, call it, 4.5%-4.75% range.

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

John, just to keep in mind, that 4.7 cap rate on the exit from Jackson, Mississippi, that's on 36-year-old assets. Average age of that portfolio is 36 years old in Jackson, Mississippi.

John Pawlowski
John Pawlowski
Analyst at Green Street

Yep. Understood. Brad, the upcoming dispositions, what markets are they in?

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

We have 2 in Savannah and 1 that is in Charlotte.

John Pawlowski
John Pawlowski
Analyst at Green Street

Great. Last one from me. Tom, single-family rental build to rent communities, the deliveries are probably going to accelerate pretty meaningfully, and the early vintages do have smaller floor plans, a little bit more like apartments. Curious, any case studies you're seeing when a build to rent community opens nearby, any impact on leasing? Any statistics or any color you could share would be of interest.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

No, it's pretty limited. While that is a booming space, it is a relatively small space. The place we've probably seen the most that sort of thing happening is in Phoenix, and it certainly hasn't slowed our momentum there. Just as a reminder, it's 5% of our move-outs are to single-family rental, which is really dwarfed by the job transfer number. It is not a driving factor, and we love it that they are raising their rents as well, though. It's been steady where they've been.

John Pawlowski
John Pawlowski
Analyst at Green Street

Okay. Thanks for the time.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

Thank you, John.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Buck Horne, Raymond James. Your line's open.

Buck Horne
Buck Horne
Analyst at Raymond James

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Thank you. Real quickly, any thoughts or potential impact from evictions moratorium roll-off in your portfolio, and/or how are you working with residents right now to potentially recover any rental assistance payments through the government program?

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Buck, this is Eric. No, we don't really see much change coming as a consequence of the expiration of that CDC moratorium. Frankly, it's not in our portfolio. We haven't seen a lot of that activity. I think that as we touched on, ever since this started last spring, we have been very active in reaching out to our residents and offering assistance in various ways with over 8,000 of our residents that we've assisted. We continue those efforts. We are also very active in doing all we can to assist our residents with making application that need it for financial assistance. We're very aggressive and active in showing them where to go. Where we can, we're actually doing it for them and making application on their behalf.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

It's not a big percentage of the portfolio, but we don't really see any near-term change occurring just as a consequence of getting into August and the CDC moratorium no longer being in place.

Buck Horne
Buck Horne
Analyst at Raymond James

Great, thanks. Just following up on the single-family rental question there, just maybe a different tack on it. A lot of builders are out there, and a lot of capital is out there building out entire communities and running them effectively like horizontal apartments. Any evolution in your thought process about maybe a partnership or strategic partnership with a home builder or someone else to invest in a single-family rental community?

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Well, it's something we kick around from time to time, Buck. We have a number of our communities where we actually do have adjacent townhomes and housing structures, if you will, that are not traditional apartment type and design. If we were to find an opportunity to do something where you've got a purpose-built single-family community in the contiguous area with common amenities and all that kind of stuff, yeah. It's something that we would invest in. We're not out actively looking to make that happen at the moment. We think we're able to capture a lot of good growth right now with what we're doing with all the projects that Brad's alluded to.

Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
COO at MAA

We've got, if you will, a little bit of that in the portfolio already, and it's something that if we find opportunities in that regard to look at, we wouldn't hesitate to look at it.

Buck Horne
Buck Horne
Analyst at Raymond James

Thanks, guys.

A. Bradley Hill
Head of Transactions at MAA

Thanks, Buck.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Thank you, Buck.

Operator

We have no further questions. I will return the call, MAA, for closing remarks.

H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
CEO at MAA

Well, we appreciate everyone joining us this morning, and any follow-up questions, feel free to reach out anytime. Thank you.

Operator

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

Analysts
    • A. Bradley Hill
      Head of Transactions at MAA
    • Albert M. Campbell III
      CFO at MAA
    • Alex Goldfarb
      Analyst at Piper Sandler
    • Amanda Sweitzer
      Vice President, Senior Research Analyst at Baird
    • Austin Wurschmidt
      Analyst at KeyBanc Capital
    • Brad Heffern
      Director at RBC Capital Markets
    • Buck Horne
      Analyst at Raymond James
    • H. Eric Bolton, Jr.
      CEO at MAA
    • John Kim
      Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets
    • John Pawlowski
      Analyst at Green Street
    • Neil Malkin
      Director, REIT Equity Analyst at Capital One Securities
    • Nicholas Joseph
      Head of US Real Estate and Lodging Research Team at Citi
    • Nick Yulico
      Managing Director at Scotiabank
    • Richard Anderson
      Analyst at SMBC
    • Robert Stevenson
      Analyst at Janney
    • Thomas L. Grimes, Jr.
      COO at MAA
    • Tim Argo
      SVP of Finance at MAA
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