Norfolk Southern Q2 2021 Earnings Report

Norfolk Southern EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $3.28
• Consensus EPS: $2.94
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.34
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Norfolk Southern Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $2.80 billion
• Expected Revenue: $2.75 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$47.75 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Norfolk Southern Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2021
• Date: 7/28/2021
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, July 28, 2021
• Conference Call Time: 2:20AM ET

Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) is a major U.S. freight railroad company that provides rail transportation and related logistics services. As a Class I carrier, the company operates an extensive network across the eastern United States and offers scheduled freight service for a broad range of industries. Its core operations include long-haul and regional rail freight transportation, intermodal services that move containers and trailers between rail and other modes, and terminal and switching services that support efficient rail shipments for industrial and port customers.

The company transports a variety of commodities, serving sectors such as coal and energy, automotive and automotive parts, chemicals, agriculture, metals and construction materials, and consumer goods. Norfolk Southern’s service offering is oriented toward shippers and supply-chain partners, combining rail haulage with routing, scheduling and terminal operations to move bulk and unitized freight. Intermodal operations are a significant component of the business, linking inland markets with East Coast and Gulf ports and facilitating cross-border flows through interchange with other North American railways.

Norfolk Southern traces its lineage to several historic railroads that developed freight corridors across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States, and it expanded through a series of mergers and network acquisitions in the late 20th century, including participation in the division of Conrail assets in 1999. Today the company’s network connects many major industrial regions, ports and metropolitan markets in the eastern U.S. and integrates with the broader North American rail system via interchange with other carriers. Norfolk Southern is governed by a corporate board and senior management team responsible for operations, safety, regulatory compliance and strategic planning.

Norfolk Southern Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Norfolk Southern delivered a record-setting Q2 with revenues up 34% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, volumes up 25%, and a best-ever operating ratio of 58.3% alongside record net income and EPS.
• Ongoing PSR initiatives drove strong operational leverage: Q2 handled 25% more volume with 8% fewer employees and 1% fewer active locomotives, boosted train length, improved fuel efficiency by 4%, and cut cost per yard and local crew by 7%.
• All business segments posted significant gains—merchandise volumes +29%, intermodal achieved its 18th straight quarter of RPU ex-fuel growth with domestic volumes +17% and international +26%, and coal shipments rose 55% despite a slight mix-driven RPU decline.
• The company raised full-year revenue growth guidance to ~12% and expects to sustain a ~60% operating ratio in H2 2021 for more than 400 basis points of annual improvement, underpinned by strong incremental margins and record first-half free cash flow of $1.47 billion.
• Advancing its sustainability agenda, Norfolk Southern issued $500 million in green bonds and secured approval for a science-based target to cut emissions intensity by 42% over the next 15 years.

Presentation

[Operator]

Greetings, and welcome to the Norfolk Southern Corporation second quarter 2021 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero from your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Meghan Achimasi, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Ms. Achimasi. You may now begin.

[Meghan Achimasi, Senior Director of Investor Relations at Norfolk Southern]

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Please note that during today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from actual results. Please refer to our annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC for a full discussion of those risks and uncertainties we view as most important. Our presentation slides are available at nscorp.com in the Investors section, along with our reconciliation of non-GAAP measures used today to the comparable GAAP measures. A full transcript and download will be posted after the call. It is now my pleasure to introduce Norfolk Southern's Chairman, President, and CEO, Jim Squires.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Norfolk Southern's second quarter 2021 earnings call. Joining me today are Cindy Sanborn, Chief Operating Officer, Alan Shaw, Chief Marketing Officer, and Mark George, Chief Financial Officer. Building upon our momentum to start the year, our team delivered another record-setting quarter as dramatic improvement in both revenue and volume, up 34% and 25% respectively, outpaced an 11% growth in expense. While the year-over-year improvement is aided by easier comps from last year's economic shutdown, our performance in the quarter also improved sequentially in a number of ways, as shown on slide four. Our results include second-quarter records for net income and earnings per share and all-time records for operating income and operating ratio, which was 58.3% this quarter. We're excited to share more details about our results.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

First, I want to take a moment to thank each and every one of our employees for helping us run a more efficient and safer railroad while serving our customers. I'll now turn to Cindy to go through our operations. Cindy?

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

Thanks, Jim. Good morning. We accomplished a lot this quarter, and I am most pleased with our PSR progress during the past several months. We continue to get more productive, face our challenges head-on, and seize the opportunities we are creating. In the second quarter, we saw the benefits of a structurally lower operating cost base, coupled with an operation that successfully absorbed increased volumes in the network. Turning to the operating metrics on slide six, you can clearly see the operating leverage generated in the quarter, leverage that flowed directly to the bottom line. Our operating discipline enabled us to handle a 25% year-over-year volume increase with 8% fewer people in our workforce and a 1% decrease in active locomotives. This success shows our improvements in train size, reflecting our goal of absorbing more business into our existing operating network wherever possible and further driving productivity.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

These gains were achieved in part by the increased deployment of distributed power and more blending of previously separate traffic types on the same train. We will continue to unlock train size increases through targeted siding extensions on key routes where train length is currently limited. Terminal capacity enhancements, which we've achieved through more efficient operating practices, will also be a key factor in absorbing and processing growth on these larger trains. Increased train size promotes better fuel efficiency, and our progress this quarter reflects our commitment to closing the fuel efficiency gap with our peers. Our mechanical team, which manages the maintenance of our highly reliable locomotive fleet pulling these larger trains, has been crucial to many of these accomplishments, and I'll give you more detail on that a little later in my presentation.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

On slide seven, you can see in the second quarter, we showed sequential improvement in terminal dwell and train velocity after we got through the severe winter weather in the first quarter. However, our progress was uneven, and we lost ground in June, in part due to several discrete but geographically impactful operating disruptions. We aren't satisfied with our service levels, and we are working extremely hard to seize the opportunity PSR presents to recover faster from disruptions. As the graphs show, we resumed our improvement in July. We are committed to continuing to improve service levels and running a faster railroad, not just because a faster railroad is a lower cost railroad, but also because speed generates capacity for us to take on additional traffic within our existing train network. I'll move to slide eight.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

During the quarter, we strived to deliver a consistent service product, even with significant volume changes, by focusing on the consistency and productivity of our yard and local operations. We are teaching and equipping our field managers to better measure the work our yard and local crews do and answer some important questions. Does the number of assignments working match the car volumes flowing through a terminal or territory? Are we getting full value out of each resource in our yards? What's the right balance of overtime costs? Where are there further automation or process opportunities to help us reduce support costs, including clerical staff and mechanical presence?

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

We are implementing technology to provide better and more timely data to answer these questions, which helps us reduce direct operating costs and improve service consistency. In several locations, we've renewed our focus on more efficient remote control operations, which have been facilitated by the changing nature of the work over the last year. Local operations scheduled and properly sized to volumes enable us to be more predictable to our customers and move cars quickly. Having a higher balance of crews assigned to road train service while creating capacity within the terminal through process enhancements, makes us nimble when responding to market changes and reducing our fixed costs. Local service is at the core of our service product, and these changes are designed to improve that product. So far, we have reduced the cost per yard in local crew 7% versus last year, and expect additional progress as the year continues.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

In a moment, Mark will discuss the benefits of reduced headcount and employee activity levels in constraining overall compensation expense as we absorb volume. Our focus on yard and local productivity has played a pivotal role in driving those benefits. We pursue target initiatives such as these with an eye towards the next generation of modern railroading, which we are bringing to life today. We continue to empower our workforce through the delivery of mobility solutions and have distributed 8,000 smartphones to our T&E employees to facilitate improved reporting and to streamline the process of keeping trains moving. In the third quarter, we will begin rolling out a next-generation local train reporting application to improve our visibility and customer service for the first and last mile.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

We are also in the final months of deployment of our current phase of the mobile track authority application that facilitates more efficient coordination between engineering and dispatching functions for right-of-way maintenance activities. We are at a very exciting time for our company and industry in which we have ample opportunities to drive customer and shareholder value through both operational improvements and technology, a powerful formula. Earlier, I mentioned the role the mechanical team has played in our PSR success, so I thought it would be useful to explain their crucial role on slide nine. PSR railroads, Norfolk Southern included, end up needing fewer locomotives. What our mechanical department has done is to take that initial ante and use it strategically to cull the worst-performing units and to make our locomotive fleet more homogeneous. Those changes unlock repair productivity.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

Think about the benefits of repairing newer and fewer locomotives, which drove down the number of units out of service for repair. That started a virtuous cycle of improved reliability with 175% improvement in the days between unscheduled events to a shop versus pre-PSR levels. Meaning that when units do go into the shop, our craftsmen can spend more time on preventive maintenance instead of triaging issues. This cycle repeats itself and ultimately supports the efficient movement of trains and serving our customers. Fewer, more reliable units also require fewer resources, so we need fewer servicing facilities and have fewer people maintaining locomotives. This is just an example, a big example, of Norfolk Southern's PSR transformation.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

These changes are purposely aligned with our overall fleet strategy, including investments in our fewer but better units through our DC to AC conversion, energy management solutions, and predictive analytic tools for maintenance planning and failure prevention. When taken as a whole, the benefits of this strategy flow through our materials, fuel, and compensation expense lines while ensuring we have a robust fleet capable of supporting profitable growth. I'll turn it over to Alan.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Thank you, Cindy, and good morning, everyone. You can see on slide 11 that we are approaching pre-pandemic revenue levels. However, the composition of our business has changed dramatically due to the secular trends in the overall economy that were accelerated by the pandemic. Norfolk Southern is positioned at the forefront of these shifts due to the unique advantages of our powerful consumer-oriented franchise and the diverse industrial markets we serve. The progress we have delivered amid dynamic business conditions underscores the value we provide to the markets we serve. Norfolk Southern's network directly connects to the majority of consumption and manufacturing in the United States and is a vital resource for maintaining the flow of goods to support the economy.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

We are building on the inherent value of our network by working to provide our customers with the digital logistics solutions they need to compete and grow in an evolving market. The sustainability advantages of the Norfolk Southern franchise deliver a competitive advantage, provide customers with solutions to their carbon offset goals, and are an accelerant to growth. In the second quarter of 2021, we successfully capitalized on opportunities by leveraging productivity enhancements and collaborating with our customers. As a result, second quarter revenue in our non-energy markets exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 4%. Growth this quarter was driven by consumer-facing and industrial segments, which helped to offset sustained headwinds in our energy markets. Revenue in our energy-related markets returned to just over two-thirds of pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter of 2021.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Our market position enabled a quick recovery in consumer and industrial markets, almost fully offsetting the 50% decline in our energy revenue. Despite the sharp decrease in this historically profitable segment, we reduced operating ratio, levering the strengths of our unique franchise to target segments of the $800 billion truck and logistics markets with a sharp focus on productivity. Turning to slide 12, our quarterly volume and revenue improved significantly from pandemic lows in all three business units, reflecting our ability to capitalize and build on the momentum of improving economic conditions. Total revenue for the quarter was $2.8 billion, up 34% year-over-year on a 25% volume improvement. Rising fuel prices and price gains drove a 7% improvement in revenue per unit, led by our intermodal franchise, which delivered record-breaking revenue per unit and revenue per unit less fuel.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Sequentially, volume and revenue improved in all three business units over the first quarter, in line with the accelerating economic recovery. Beginning with our merchandise segment, both volume and revenue improved 29% versus the second quarter of 2020, driven primarily by recovery from COVID-19 related shutdowns in the prior period. While automotive continued to face headwinds associated with the semiconductor chip shortage, shipments in the second quarter were up 122% year-over-year against easy comps associated with near complete shutdown of vehicle production in the second quarter of last year. Our steel franchise also delivered strong growth this quarter, up 67%, as record level steel prices and elevated demand fueled production activity. Combined gains in automotive and steel volume represented roughly 63% of total merchandise growth for the quarter.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Revenue per unit was flat, while revenue per unit excluding fuel declined slightly, driven by mix headwinds in chemicals and automotive. Turning to intermodal, our powerful franchise delivered record-breaking revenue per unit, and revenue per unit less fuel for the quarter. The second quarter of 2021 marks the 18th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth in revenue per unit excluding fuel for our intermodal franchise. Strong consumer demand and tightness in the trucking sector drove growth for our domestic service product. Domestic shipments were up 17% year-over-year in the second quarter and up 4% from the same period in 2019. International shipments were also strong in the second quarter, improving 26% year-over-year on sustained high import demand, but were down 3% from the same period in 2019. Revenue per unit gains were driven by increased accessorial revenue, higher fuel surcharge revenue, and price gains.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Approximately 50% of the revenue per unit gain was driven by higher container storage time on terminal due to supply chain recovery challenges. Lastly, our coal segment experienced some bright spots in the second quarter due to higher demand levels driven by global economic recovery and weather events. Coal shipments improved 55% year-over-year with strength in both the export and utility markets. Revenue per unit decreased slightly due primarily to negative mix experienced in our export markets, where growth was driven by strength in the lower RPU export thermal market. Moving to our outlook on slide 13. We expect the current economic momentum to continue through the end of the year and are raising our guidance for full year revenue growth to approximately 12% year-over-year.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

The overall economy continues to surprise to the upside with forecasts for 2021 GDP growth now at around 7% and approximately 5% for 2022. Industrial production is forecasted to increase 6% in 2021 and north of 3% in 2022. Increased manufacturing coupled with record low retail inventories, high savings rates, and increased energy consumption all set the stage for continued growth in the second half of the year. Merchandise growth will be led by strength in steel markets as low business inventory to sales ratios and sustained demand for durable goods drives manufacturing activity in the second half. We are well positioned to capture opportunities associated with current strength in the steel markets as our network serves more integrated steel mills than any other railroad in North America. Merchandise energy markets will benefit from increased travel and commuting activities as businesses continue to reopen and virus restrictions are lifted.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Pulp, board, and plastics volumes are also expected to increase as personal consumption drives demand for packaging. Merchandise gains will be partially offset by a year-over-year decline in automotive shipments in the third quarter due to planned production downtime associated with the semiconductor shortage. Demand for international trade to support recovering global economies is expected to lead second half growth in our intermodal franchise. Domestic intermodal demand will continue to improve as well with consumer spending and e-commerce forecasts strengthening through the end of the year and ongoing capacity constraints in the trucking sector driving more opportunity for highway to rail conversions. Our coal franchise will continue to capitalize on near term opportunities to support global energy demand and steel production.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Volume in the second half of 2021 is expected to improve year-over-year, driven by export markets benefiting from high seaborne coal prices, making U.S. coals more competitive in the global market. Demand for domestic met to support growing steel production activity is also likely to produce year-over-year growth. Gains in these markets will be partially offset by expected year-over-year declines in utility volume as this market deals with unit retirements, coal supply, and planned maintenance outages. We are closely monitoring geopolitical trade tensions and coal production, both of which have the potential to influence results. Overall, we expect economic conditions to be favorable for Norfolk Southern growth through the end of 2021. We are confident in our ability to leverage the strengths of our unique franchise and continue to drive revenue and margin growth.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

I will now turn it over to Mark, who will cover our financial results.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Thanks, Alan. On slide 15, you see the reconciliation of our Q2 reported operating ratio and earnings per share versus 2020. The operating ratio of 58.3% represents a 1,240 basis point improvement. We had $67 million of property gains in the quarter, of which there was one major transaction that closed at the end of the quarter and resulted in a $55 million gain. We view this single transaction as incremental to our normal yearly operating property gain guidance of $30 million-$40 million, and it alone represents 200 basis points of the operating ratio improvement this quarter. Earnings per share at $3.28 was $1.75 higher than prior year. Aside from the $0.17 goodness from the property gain, there was a state tax law change that resulted in a favorable adjustment to our deferred taxes of $0.09. Moving to slide 16.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Alan walked you through the drivers of the 34% increase in revenues, including the 25% growth in volumes. At the same time, we contained growth in operating expenses to 11% as we harvested additional benefits from workforce and asset productivity. The volume growth, coupled with the productivity, drove strong incremental margins again this quarter, resulting in an operating ratio that was a record low 58.3%, improving 1,240 basis points year-over-year and 320 basis points sequentially versus Q1, including the 200 basis point tailwind from the major property gain. Our operating income at $1.167 billion in the quarter is another record, up $557 million or 91% year-over-year. We generated free cash flow of $1.47 billion through six months, also a record, and that represents an increase of $447 million or 44% versus the same six months last year.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Moving now to a drill down of operating expense performance on slide 17. You'll see that operating expenses increased $157 million or 11%, and fuel was the biggest driver of the increase, with price driving expenses up $83 million. Usage increased due to higher volumes, which was partially offset by another quarter of fuel efficiency gains, a 4% improvement in the quarter. The increase in purchase services and rents is driven by volumes, although we managed to keep the increase in these categories well below the volume growth rates. Comp and ben is up 6%, with savings from headcount being down 8% year-over-year, offsetting increases in pay rates and overtime. Higher incentive compensation in the quarter was $39 million, reflecting the improved outlook for the year and low accrual rates of last year.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Despite the 25% growth in volume, materials were actually down year-over-year from lower spend associated with fewer but more productive locomotives, thanks to the rationalization of the equipment last year and the initiatives that Cindy described earlier. The big item in the materials and other column is the favorable compare on gains from property sales in Q2, and that was $67 million in the quarter versus only $2 million last year. Turning to slide 18, you'll see that other income net of $35 million is $14 million, or 29% unfavorable year-over-year, due primarily to lower net returns on our company-owned life insurance investments. Our effective tax rate in the quarter was only 21%, lower than we typically model, and that was primarily from the benefit associated with the state tax law change.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Net income increased by 109%, while earnings per share grew 114%, supported by the nearly 3.4 million shares we repurchased in the quarter. Wrapping up now with our free cash flow on slide 19. As I mentioned, free cash flow was a record for the six months of 2021 at $1.47 billion, buoyed by very strong operating cash generation and relatively modest property additions of $627 million thus far in the year. That translates to a free cash flow conversion of 99% through six months. Although we still expect property additions to ramp up in the balance of the year and hit our $1.6 billion guidance number. Shareholder distributions through six months exceeds $2 billion, an increase of $870 million versus prior year, thanks to our recently increased dividend and the meaningful increase in our share repurchase activity. With that, I'll turn it back over to Jim.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

Thank you, Mark. When we spoke last quarter, I took the opportunity to share our company's longstanding commitment to sustainability. Along those lines, I'm excited to report two brand new milestones in our journey. Earlier this quarter, we became the first North American Class I railroad to issue a green bond, launching $500 million in green bonds to fund sustainable investments to reduce our carbon emissions and partner with customers to do the same. As outlined in our green financing framework, potential projects range from improving locomotive fuel efficiency, to fostering truck-to-rail conversions, powering company operations with clean energy, to increasing the use of energy efficient buildings and technology, and supporting reforestation projects that restore natural landscapes and offset carbon emissions.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

In addition to our green bonds, we achieved another significant milestone earlier this month with the approval of our science-based target, our commitment to reduce emissions intensity by 42% in the next 15 years. These two steps are a critical part of our shared commitment to sustainability with our investors, customers, partners, and communities, underscoring our resolve to be an even bigger part of the solution. Before we open the call to Q&A, I'll take a moment to provide our updated outlook based on the current economic environment. As Alan mentioned, we are even more confident about growth for the balance of this year, and we now expect revenue to be up approximately 12% year-over-year.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

Strength in our consumer-oriented and manufacturing markets will drive the majority of the growth, and the near-term upside in coal markets will provide more of a lift this year than previously expected, though the market remains challenged in the long term. We are also succeeding in driving productivity into our operations, and as a result, we got onto our 60% run rate here in the Q2. We expect to maintain this OR level for the balance of the year, which translates to at least 400 basis points of OR improvement for the full year versus our adjusted 2020 result. We'll build upon this momentum for more improvements in 2022 and long-term sustained value for our shareholders and customers. With that, we'll open the call to your questions. Operator?

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Due to the number of analysts joining us on the call today, we will be limiting everyone to one question to accommodate as many participants as possible. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

[Chris Wetherbee, Analyst at Citi]

Yeah, hey, thanks and good morning. Maybe if I could just pick up where you left off, Jim, on the guidance, particularly for the operating ratio guidance. Obviously, there have been some service dynamics that have deteriorated in the quarter, not just necessarily for Norfolk Southern. Certainly, that's more of an industry comment. I'm kind of curious how you think about resource management in the back half of the year. It sounds like CapEx is going to ramp back up to sort of get back on run rate for the full-year target. How do we think about headcount? How do we think about some of the other resources that maybe you have some levers that you can pull? How quickly do you think service can kind of ramp up?

[Chris Wetherbee, Analyst at Citi]

A few questions built in there, but really kind of embedded in that OR guidance, which is obviously better than what you gave us before in the context of what we're seeing with service.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

Good morning, Chris. Let me start, and then I'll turn it over to Cindy to talk about some of the specific actions we're taking on the workforce front. We continue to see opportunities for workforce and other productivity in the second half of the year. Yes, we are facing some spot labor shortages, but they're just that. Systemically, we think we'll manage, and that we will continue to generate labor productivity in the second half, in fact. That should translate into favorable results for expenses and for the bottom line as well. We mentioned, as part of the overall OR guidance, the revised expectation for revenue. We took that up some, too. You put the two together, and that gets you to the new guidance on the OR, which is more than 400 basis points for the year.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

Cindy, talk a little bit more about what we're doing on the resource side.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

Sure, Jim. Thanks, Chris. If you think about where we started the year, we had planned to hire. It wasn't going to be broad-based. We expected to gain productivity in our workforce throughout the year, and largely it's played out that way. My prepared remarks go into some more detail on that. I will say that from a standpoint of hiring, where we are hiring, there are a few high growth locations, just specific areas where the job market is extremely tight. We are experiencing that in our ability to bring on new employees. It's fairly localized. It's not broad-based. To mitigate that, we pull on some of our typical items, how we deploy people through what we call Go Teams, where we have employees that quickly can go into areas and support the existing crews that are there.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

Temporary transfers, permanent transfers, and even craft transfers from, let's say, the mechanical craft into transportation. In terms of hiring, some of the areas that we're working on there to be able to get people to come to us, we've increased our training wage. We've also have some sign-on and retention bonuses for the new employees as they come on. We're working very diligently there. It is a headwind for us. We're watching it very closely. You tied it to service and I would tell you that our service, as I think about that more broad-based and coming into the beginning of the year, we had fairly strong service measures. We went through a very challenging February and a very strong demand for a volume in March on top of a really low demand for service because of the weather in February.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

We started coming out of those challenges in late April and May, and felt really good about where we are. As we headed into June, we had, and I also described this a bit in my prepared remarks, sort of a series of events that, couple of derailments, not big derailments, but just locations where they were challenging for us. Then, as we're recovering from that, we had some weather events that just elongated the recovery. June was just a challenging month. As we came out of the July 4th holiday, we have accelerated the gains from May and the run rates that we had from May, and I feel better and good about where we are. We're not satisfied with where we are. We want to continue to improve service for our customers.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

That's largely how I see the dynamic here between resources and service.

[Operator]

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jonathan Chappell with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

[Jonathan Chappell, Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Thank you. Good morning. Alan, everybody knows about the chip shortage and the impact it's having on the auto industry. Your comments about being down year-over-year in 3Q may be a bit surprising just given your network. It's been a little bit more immune, given the heavy SUV exposure there. Can you speak to your expectations beyond 3Q? Especially, as you get into that 12% increase in volumes for the full year, for the total network, what are you expecting from auto? Is there a massive snapback there where the second half kind of looks the same, even though the third quarter may be a little bit lighter? How does that kind of portend into next year's view on the auto market?

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Hey, Jon, the semiconductors are certainly the headline issue. What we're seeing right now is the impact of the Delta variant on producers who are in, or suppliers, I should say, in Southeast Asia. We've got a couple of plants that source parts from Southeast Asia, and because of production issues over there, they've had to pull forward planned production downtime later this year. That has had an impact on our production and our volumes right now. Over time, we feel like we're going to get back to all the plants operating in August. Jonathan, you know that we've talked about that before and had to push it back.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

We're still anticipating by the fourth quarter, we're going to be in a position where we're at full production. You're right, the plants that we serve and the products that we move are in high demand, so they will be the ones that get the first call on any available parts, whether it's semiconductors or anything else. Right now, finished vehicle inventories to normalized sales are in the teens. It's probably about a third or a fourth of where our customers want them. We serve more U.S. vehicle production than anybody else, and we serve an industry that's going to be very interested on inventory rebuild both this year and as we move into next year. We're pretty confident about the trajectory of our auto franchise once we kind of weather this initial bump.

[Jonathan Chappell, Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Just to be clear, the 12% total volume growth, is that including a quote unquote made whole on auto or that's in spite of auto maybe being weaker than you thought?

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Yeah. I'm glad you brought that up. It is 12% revenue growth on upper single-digit volume growth.

[Jonathan Chappell, Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Right. Yep. Okay, great. Thank you, Alan.

[Operator]

Our next question's from the line of Justin Long with Stephens. Please proceed with your question.

[Justin Long, Analyst at Stephens]

Thanks and good morning. On the OR guidance, just wanted to clarify, are you including the $55 million gain on sale and the expectation for 400 basis points-440 basis points of year-over-year improvement? Maybe just thinking, beyond even the second half of this year, would love to get your thoughts about incremental margins going forward as we look into 2022 and beyond, and think about the opportunity beyond a 60% OR.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

Mark, why don't you take that one?

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Sure. Look, Justin, the guidance does include, it's all in, so it does include this major property gain that we called out or highlighted for you. Look, I think incrementals, we had very strong incrementals here in the first half, and the guidance implies we're going to continue to have very strong incrementals in the back half, albeit less than the first half. We do have some unique headwinds here in this second half. That would include things like fuel. Fuel is a headwind to us. A lot of the incremental revenue that we're adding here in our guidance change is coming from fuel. It's fuel surcharge, which is mitigating incremental fuel expense, so there's really no incremental margin from that, so it tends to dilute what we have organically in the back half. On top of that, we will have some diminishing

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Accessorial charges, which hopefully help fuel some more volume that comes with it. Of course, we've got some IC headwind here in the back half as well. That said, incrementals are good, and we continue to believe that going into 2022, we will continue to improve our OR on an incremental basis. Buoyed by some of the productivity initiatives and measures that we're constantly looking at, and Cindy and her team are iterating on the T&E side, as well as fuel efficiency. That should help, again, provide us consistent and continued improvement in our overall OR quest.

[Justin Long, Analyst at Stephens]

Okay. I appreciate the time.

[Operator]

Our next question is from the line of Thomas Wadewitz with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

[Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst at UBS]

Yeah, good morning. Wanted to ask you a little bit about intermodal. I guess the first component just being, how do you think about the storage fees? I think you alluded to them being a pretty big factor in revenue per unit growth in intermodal. Do you think they continue at that level in the third quarter, second half? Is that a big fall-off in that? I guess related to that, how do you think about the terminal operations? Are you constraining volume into Chicago, and what's the chassis impact on your fluidity and how quickly that may change in terms of capacity constraints? Thank you.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

You're welcome, Tom. Our accessorial programs are designed to align the mutual goals of NS and our customers for a more efficient and reliable service product. With the pressure on the drayage community and with the pressure on warehousing due to pandemic protocols and labor shortages, our customers in certain locations needed more space for storage. So we responded to the market. We've added satellite lots in some areas. We've reconfigured our stack configuration at Landers, our heavily international facility in Chicago. We've been able to accommodate a lot more international units dwelling on our terminals, because that's what our customers need. Our accessorials, in this case, are an activity-based service and price that we apply to the market. We are absolutely focused on programs that encourage the fluidity of our operations.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Really, our hope clearly is that the accessorials go away because that means that customers are pulling more quickly from our terminals. As soon as customers pull boxes from our terminals, we can inbound more boxes into our terminals. It's not an issue of capacity, it's an issue of throughput. We're working on some programs to encourage dual missions with the drayage community. Anytime that they ingate a box, they are outgating a box as well. You mentioned chassis. I'm glad you brought that up. As you know that about six weeks ago, we determined that over 5,100 of our chassis had a manufacturing defect. It was a supplier issue. With our uncompromising commitment to safety, we didn't hesitate to pull those off the street. That happened in a tough environment.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

We were already short of chassis because of elongated street dwell associated with the same warehouse and same drayage community pressures that I noted before. I'm very proud of the way that we have responded, and frankly, in collaboration with our customers as well. We stood up a number of different locations and an entire network of vendors to repair these chassis. It's a brand-new process. We've got 80 different locations in which we are repairing chassis. Some of them are even off of our network, and we're working with foreign roads, our western partners, on a number of gateway locations. As a result, we've already repaired 40% of our chassis just in the first six weeks. Right now, we're on a run rate where we're repairing about 10% of those affected chassis.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

We fully believe that by the end of August, we will have repaired about three-quarters of the affected chassis, which are effectively anything that's on our network. The rest have migrated off network, and we're working with the foreign roads to get those back to us, so that we can repair them. We haven't closed gates. I want to make it very clear. What we're doing in certain lanes where at the destination we have a shortage of chassis because of this safety recall, we are metering or capping volume. Every day this improves because every day we're repairing chassis, putting them back into the market, and we are relaxing the metering program. You can see the impact on our volume sequentially as you move out of May into the first half of June, and then where we are now.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

As we continue to repair the chassis, you'll see volumes pick up.

[Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst at UBS]

I guess, are you optimistic that improvement is quick, or is that kind of slow? I think that's underlying what I was asking.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Improvement in volumes?

[Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst at UBS]

Throughput. Yeah. You said throughput.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Yeah

[Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst at UBS]

is the key. Would you expect quick improvement in throughput, or is that pretty gradual throughout the second half?

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Well, it's going to improve as we get more chassis back into the market. As I told you, we're going to have about three-quarters of these, all the ones that are on our network, repaired by the end of August. We're also, starting in September, we're going to inject more assets out of the lease market into our network as well. We are applying capacity to the growth opportunities that are out there for our customers.

[Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst at UBS]

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.

[Scott Group, Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Hey, thanks. Morning, guys. Mark, I wanted to ask you about some of the cost lines. We saw a step-up in purchase services and comp per employee in the second quarter. How should we think about that going forward from here? Similarly, Alan, merchandise and coal RPU, they were both down sequentially. Do you have any thoughts on how to think about that into the back half of the year? Thank you.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Hey, Scott. I'll tackle comp and ben per employee. It did step up a little bit here in the second quarter. We ended up hitting our 60% OR a quarter or two earlier than we thought to get on that run rate, led us to increase our outlook for the year on operating ratio, and I think, as you know, our incentive plan is heavily oriented toward OR improvement. That resulted in an increase to incentive comp accruals beyond what we had initially guided. You see about an 8%, well, sorry, 16% increase in the quarter year-over-year in comp and ben per employee. About half of that is from the incentive. The rest is really a split between wage inflation, overtime, payroll taxes.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

I think when you look at the balance of the year, just look at it on an absolute comp per employee basis. The first half is roughly around $33,000 between the first quarter, second quarter, and I think it's going to end up being pretty much in that territory in the back half as well, around $33,000. Pretty specific number there. Purchase services, it did step up. I think we guided you that it would step up. That Q1 was more of an anomalous drop. There was some deferral of expenses. We were slow out of the gate on some spend. I do think where we ended the second quarter was in line with what we expected. I do expect a modest tick up here in the balance of the year for Q3, Q4. We're containing it. It'll be less than revenue growth.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Probably a little bit of a modest tick up in the back half as some of the engineering expenses step up here during the summer months and into the fall, and also some of the IT spend will be coming through in the back half.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

The question, Scott, was on RPU, and we are exceeding our price plan that we had established at the end of the year. We delivered 7% RPU growth for the quarter, despite negative mix in each of our three business units. Within merchandise, rock salt was up about 40%. We're happy to handle the business, but that's generally lower-rated business. TIH, which is a very high-rated business, was down in the quarter year-over-year. Also within the auto industry, you know how disrupted individual plants have been because of these production issues or supplier issues, I should say. As a result of plants that took some downtime, our auto length of haul was down significantly in the second quarter, which impacted overall RPU. I'll pivot over to coal, you referenced that, and that really continues to be a function of mix.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

I guided to that that would be pressure going forward. Within our export thermal market, volume was up 250% year-over-year. We've got a really good service product in that lane, and we're leveraging that to the benefit of our customers and to our shareholders. At the same time, export thermal is up 250%, which as you know is lower rated. Export met was up 20%. We handled growth there, in any given year, we'd be very happy with 20% growth, but that just creates severe negative mix. Frankly, within export, last year, three-quarters of our business was met. This year, it was 50/50. There you can see the impact on RPU.

[Scott Group, Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Okay. Thank you, guys.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is coming from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

[Brandon Oglenski, Analyst at Barclays]

Hey, good morning, everyone, thanks for taking my question. Cindy, I guess I wanted to talk about network velocity because it does look like you're running pretty well below where you'd gotten in 2019 and even early 2020, obviously, with less volumes. Can you talk about your road service redesign and how that could be improving things, but is there mix impacting that aggregated number as well?

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

Brandon, let me start at a high level. I really see we've got some very strong building blocks in place. We've continued to bring on some talent with PSR experience and Hunt Cary, who was running our operations efficiency team, has now added to his portfolio of responsibility to include our network operations center. We have that going for us. We have longer-term siding extensions that are going to allow us to continue to grow trains. We are still growing train length, as you heard in my prepared remarks. There's still some work to do from a consolidation perspective on our line of road. I do think that should be a benefit to us because it unlocks capacity, the fewer trains that we have out there. We're working every day to be better.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

When I think about it in a more short-term view, we're working every day to be better. Our recrews have come down substantially in July. As I think about even from a capacity perspective, I'll give you this kind of data point. Last quarter, I talked about the fact that on our intermodal trains, at about 10%, we're running above 10,000 ft. That's actually the same number this quarter, even with the train size increases that we've seen. We're actually starting with the smaller stuff and being able to put that together. Then as we grow the sidings, we'll be able to even do more. Again, that just unlocks capacity on the line of road. I see bright future here longer term. Then medium term, again, it's just basic blocking and tackling.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

I think Hunt being in the NOC has brought some different thoughts into that work group, and I think we're seeing those benefits already in July.

[Brandon Oglenski, Analyst at Barclays]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna. Please proceed with your questions.

[Bascome Majors, Analyst at Susquehanna]

Yeah, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to talk a little bit about intermodal pricing. I know much of that is on long-term contracts, and there are some standard escalators in there, but can you talk a little bit, is there a lag benefit where you really do see a lot of what's happening in the truckload market in your pricing in 2022, or will that be similar year-over-year? Just any thoughts on how you get paid for how the truckers are getting paid today would be helpful. Thank you.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Bascome, there is a lag in our long-term contracts on intermodal price. We would expect next year to see more improvement in year-over-year price than we see this year on some of those deals. I'll just reiterate, we're not going to see a huge uptick like you see in the spot market. We just are not structured to chase the spot market either up or down. We take a much more measured approach with our customers. They're looking for rate surety as they go out into bid season. We want them to be successful. We're aligned with the best channel partners in the business. They're focused on growth, and we're here to support that growth over time that has generated rate increases in intermodal that exceed both the contract market and the spot market within truck.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

As I talked about, we've got 18 straight quarters of year-over-year growth in RPU ex fuel and intermodal, both in up markets and down. Expect continued improvement as we move through next year. Don't expect the kind of volatility that you're seeing in the spot market.

[Bascome Majors, Analyst at Susquehanna]

I appreciate it. I'm actually curious to your point about the long-term bias with these partnerships. Has this environment changed the conversation about how you want to convert traffic long term and work with your partners to do that? I'm just curious what might be different two to three years down the road than the last two to three.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

There are a number of trends that were in place that we believe were accelerated by the pandemic. That includes more interest in rail, forward positioning of inventory, shifts from highway to rail. There's a number of reasons. Sustainability, Jim talked about that. That is definitely entering into the conversations with our customers. In the intermodal space with our channel partners, that's helping them win business as well. I look at our industrial development activities and compare it to just two or three years ago, and there is a lot more interest in economic development in rail serve sites. Yes, there is more and more activity, more and more discussion in both the merchandise and in the intermodal sphere for highway to rail conversions. That's frankly, the way that we've positioned our franchise. That's why we're so confident about the future.

[Bascome Majors, Analyst at Susquehanna]

Thank you for that color.

[Operator]

The next question is coming from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.

[Amit Mehrotra, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Thanks, operator. Hi, everybody. Good morning. Alan, just following up on the chassis discussion. I understand, I guess the cost to fix the problem is not very material, but I think it's 15% of the owned fleet for the company. Just for my own curiosity, is there any recourse or claim the customer has if they're not able to move the boxes out of the terminals due to chassis availability? Is this maybe an issue that impacts really your channel partners? If you can just give us some color on that. Just as a follow-up, Mark, you've been super helpful in the past on OpEx cadence. You're kind of highlighting some step up in OpEx ex fuel. Wondering if you could just help us put a finer point on that in the back half relative to the first half of the second quarter.

[Amit Mehrotra, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Revenue looks like it's going to be maybe sequentially down a little bit in the back half or flattish at best. Just wondering what the corresponding increase in OpEx ex fuel we should expect on the back of that. Thank you very much.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Amit, our primary focus is on safety, and our primary focus is on injecting capacity to help our customers grow. The downstream impact associated with this supplier issue is fluid, and I'm not going to comment on that right now.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Yeah. Amit, just the 12% revenue guidance kind of implies you're going to see a flattish to maybe modestly down a little in the back half. In terms of OpEx, I think, fuel is one of the variables where that continues to creep up here in the back half. Then, as I mentioned, I think, the comp and ben per employee, that will stabilize and be at that 33,000 per level. Other than that, we do see a little bit of a step up, like I said to Scott, on purchase services. A modest step up there. I don't think we'll see continued diminishing material spend. I think we're kind of hitting a bottom there. That will probably be more flattish. Rents, I think there will be some pressure.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

As volumes are coming back, there's a little bit of a lag usually with equipment rents, and I think especially when autos starts to come back, we'll see a little bit of pressure on rents from where we are right now.

[Amit Mehrotra, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay, that's helpful. Alan, just maybe if I can approach, I respect you don't want to comment on it, but maybe I can approach the question a different way. Do you think the impact of this chassis shortage is primarily a volume and service impact that rebounds when the company finishes addressing these issues? Or is there some idiosyncratic cost issue as well that maybe is muting some of the results that can unwind over the course of the next couple quarters?

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Yeah. We've stated that the revenue and the cost impact is not material for us to call out. We are intently focused on standing up a new program, preparing these chassis, serving our customers, injecting more assets into the network so that we can help them grow. We got a great plan to do that. We've responded very quickly to this issue.

[Amit Mehrotra, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay. All right. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

[Operator]

Thank you. As a reminder, if you could please limit yourself to one question to accommodate as many as possible. Your next question will be coming from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

[Jordan Alliger, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Yeah. Hi, just longer term, thinking about intermodal, can you maybe talk to or give an update on your thoughts about East Coast versus West Coast ports, and have some of the issues around the West Coast maybe even stimulated further conversations, people making more of a shift, retailers, et cetera, to the east side? Thanks.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Hey, Jordan. We saw or we've continued to see a kind of a measured shift in market share from West Coast to East Coast. Over the last 10, 15 years, that's due to a number of issues. Widening of the Suez Canal, labor strife on the West Coast in 2014, widening of the Panama Canal. Just basically, East Coast is where you're seeing a lot of growth in population and consumption. We're very fortunate that our franchise serves a majority of the consumption and the manufacturing in the United States. Yeah, we fully expect that our ports, which are very active in attracting new business, will continue to do so. That's going to continue to be a strength for our unique intermodal franchise.

[Jordan Alliger, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

All right. Thanks so much.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

[Ken Hoexter, Analyst at Bank of America]

Hey, great. Good morning. Jim and Mark, maybe just a little clarification. A great outlook on the 400 basis points-440 basis points of margin improvement. Can you clarify, did you say before, Jim, that you were going to stay at the 58% through the rest of the year? I thought you mentioned something about holding these levels. Then just kind of wrapping up with what you've just talked about on the last couple of answers, you're kind of fighting the tide with higher fuel surcharge, which is 100% OR. You've got the bump now from the real estate gains incentive comp challenges.

[Ken Hoexter, Analyst at Bank of America]

Are you looking for a step up in any of the segments in order to get further gains to these levels, or I'm just trying to understand if we're looking for any additional gains or if there are real estate gains that are coming, or is it just the benefits maybe from the higher revenues? Thanks.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

Thanks, Ken. I'll take the first part of that. The guidance was that we would maintain the 60% run rate in the second half, which puts us for the full year where we had expected to be, but ahead of schedule, having gotten to that mark in the second quarter. Mark?

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Ken, just putting a finer point on things, we don't expect gains like this to happen again in the back half. It's really maintaining the levels ex gains is basically implicitly what we're trying to guide to here.

[Ken Hoexter, Analyst at Bank of America]

Wonderful. Thank you.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

[Brian Ossenbeck, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. One for Cindy, can you just give us a little more context on the yard and local productivity? It seems like it's a recent effort for both service, and on the cost side. How far along are you into this process? Is there any way you can size that up for us? You mentioned you're getting some headcount reduction benefits from that, but what else do you see potentially coming from this effort? Maybe you can help with how far along you are with executing this initiative.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

Yeah. Thanks for the question. Yeah, the team has done a really great job with our operations efficiency team out here, really fine-tuning our processes and our operating practices, if you will, within our terminal footprint. You've seen, again, broadly, the transition from humping to flat switching, which has occurred in 2019 and into 2020. Now we're fine-tuning processes in other terminals as well as our big four humps that are left. It's essentially a very detailed process around matching big blocks of cars to outbound trains with the shortest amount of time between those big blocks being processed to departure. It's small things like that.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

It's other things that we've been working on as well, that with the ability to generating the capacity that we have in our terminals, particularly let's talk about Elkhart, we've actually been able to take in volume that traditionally we had bypassed to intermediate switching carriers in Chicago for forwarding to Western destinations. We've been able to take those cars into our terminal and make direct connections to our Western carriers, our Western partners with traffic. It's really twofold. It is a matter of fine-tuning processes and generating more productivity because we need less crews against the work in the terminal, as well as freeing up capacity in the terminal to bring more work into our higher powered humps that save us, in this case, intermediate switching charges with the Western folks. It's pretty broad-based as to what we're working on.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

We will find opportunities as we look to reduce footprints at some of our smaller terminals. Also thinking about it, driving service reliability for our customers because we're much more consistent as we work on this effort. It's fairly broad-based.

[Brian Ossenbeck, Analyst at JPMorgan]

All right. Thanks for that, Cindy. Appreciate it.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

[Ravi Shanker, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thanks. I just want to follow up on the intermodal side in the near term. Some of your peers, on conference calls this season, have said that the current service issues makes it hard to drive incremental truck-to-rail conversion at this point. Do you see things the same way? If you don't, do you see incremental share opportunities to take intermodal share from your rail peers? Thank you.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Hey, Ravi, as I talk to our intermodal channel partners, one of their primary concerns is overall capacity. They absolutely want to shift business from highway to rail. They are concerned about the overall throughput throughout the supply chain, and frankly, we're a big part of that. Right? I am confident that as our network fluidity improves, as we resolve these chassis issues, as the drayage community productivity improves, as warehousing productivity improves, then we're going to be able to grow more because there's a phenomenal opportunity out there, and our channel partners are starting to talk a lot more confidently about next year as well. There's a lot of runway to the macro environment for us, and we're intent on addressing the issues that are within our control and working with our channel partners on things that we can do to help them grow.

[Ravi Shanker, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Okay. Thanks. Very quick follow-up. Did you quantify the accessorials in the quarter at all relative to a normal run rate? How do we think about that going forward?

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

What we said that is about half of the improvement in RPU within intermodal is associated with the activity-based service that we provide, which is accrued under the accessorial program.

[Mark George, CFO at Norfolk Southern]

Incremental accessorials versus last year.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Yes.

[Ravi Shanker, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

[Fadi Chamoun, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Good morning. Thank you. Maybe a question for Jim. If I look across the industry, there's at least two franchises in the rail with strong indexation to intermodal, and these franchises have had a really tough time over the years to achieve and sustain below 60% operating ratio. I think they attribute that to the intermodal business overall being a little bit more margin dilutive compared to others. My question is: as we now hit that 60% mark and you start to look beyond that, what is unique about NSC's intermodal franchise that would allow it to achieve and sustain lower than 60% OR? Secondly, has this pandemic changed maybe the competitive positioning of intermodal versus the other modes and maybe helping make a better line of sight to under 60% OR on a sustained basis?

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

Thank you, Fadi. Let me first start by saying that we're not done. We have more upside, more room to run when it comes to productivity and growth. We hit the 60% run rate mark in the second quarter. We're proud of that. We got there ahead of schedule, and that's due to the hard work of all of our employees. We're not resting on our laurels. We'll continue to push. One of the clear growth engines for our company and for the industry generally is intermodal. I will say this, the economics of the intermodal business are vastly improved from what they were, say, 10 years ago. There's been a lot of hard work done inside our company and in partnership with our companies to really drive the value proposition in intermodal.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

There's lots of opportunity there for incremental margin and improvement in the operating ratio from growth in intermodal volumes going forward. Of course, the same goes for other parts of our business as well, where the incrementals are also excellent. I think we have a winning formula all in all. Growth opportunities, certainly in intermodal, in certain parts of merchandise as well, coupled with a continued focus on productivity throughout the company.

[Fadi Chamoun, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

[Walter Spracklin, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Yeah. Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. Just keeping on the intermodal capacity question. Looking back pre-pandemic, you guys were hitting about an 85,000 per month carload basis on intermodal and obviously dipping down during the pandemic, but coming right back up in the fourth quarter, again, hitting that 85,000 and then coming back down from that again. My question here is, I understand the chassis issue and the efforts there, but given what appeared at least to be, given those data, is there anything longer or more fundamental from a structural standpoint that you're looking at outside of chassis that will open up your intermodal capacity after this chassis issue is completed? What would be your growth potential in intermodal after that issue is resolved by your best estimate over the next year or two?

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Walter, you've got a chassis safety recall issue that I've highlighted. You also have the overall chassis, whether it's our chassis, our customer's chassis, the international gray pool chassis, and box issue that's associated with stress on the drayage community and warehousing. When that gets resolved, when that starts to improve and street times decrease by 20%, which is what they've been elevated by, then you're going to see more throughput through the entire intermodal supply chain ecosystem. With respect to our overall capacity, what we're doing about it, as we improve our on-time performance in our train network, it allows our customers to schedule their appointments with more specificity, which will help them improve their overall equipment utilization. We're continuing to invest in our terminals, both physically and with technology to make our terminals more efficient, both for us and for our customers.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

We're rolling out a terminal-based operating system for intermodal this year, which will help us improve. We're working with our lift contractors on how we can help each other improve and make sure we're all looking at the same sorts of service metrics. There's a number of ways in which we can all drive improvements and gains in the intermodal volumes. I'll tell you that based on our conversations with our customers, we're looking at multiples of GDP growth over the long term, and that's effectively what we've been delivering over the last 10 or 15 years as well.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

I also think steel wheel interchange.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Thank you, Cindy.

[Cindy Sanborn, COO at Norfolk Southern]

has been a benefit to us here as we work with our western partners to take pressure off the terminals in Chicago and having to drop boxes and dray them across town. That's another area that we'd love to see continue into growth. It helps both parties to be more efficient.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Yeah. Cindy's highlighting another area in which we're operating within the entire supply chain ecosystem in order to improve efficiency and fluidity.

[Walter Spracklin, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

When this bottleneck of the chassis comes off, you see clear path of getting, I think I said monthly, I meant weekly, volumes of north of 85,000 on the intermodal side. Timeframe for the chassis issue overall, is that a 1Q, two quarters, three quarters?

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Walter, I think you're talking about the street dwell for the chassis. Is that right?

[Walter Spracklin, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Yep.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

I don't know. I don't know when that gets resolved. That is a labor issue, and that's a pandemic protocol issue.

[Walter Spracklin, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Yeah. Understood. Yep. Okay. No, it's a tough one. I understand. Thanks for the time. Appreciate it.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Allison Landry with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

[Allison Landry, Analyst at Credit Suisse]

Thanks. Good morning. Jim, I wanted to ask about the regulatory environment. Obviously, we had the executive order, the push for reciprocal switching, but also Chairman Oberman has recently expressed concerns about intermodal terminal congestion, demurrage, as well as whether the rails have sufficient resources and labor in order to meet demand. Could you comment on this and whether you're concerned about the risk that the broader regulatory backdrop becomes more onerous or challenging? To the extent that you do have concerns, how might you plan to address these to the STB? Thank you.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

Sure. Thank you, Allison. I'll get to your question about competition policy in our industry in just a minute. I think it's worth pointing out, to start with, that our operations, our business model overlaps nicely with many of the administration's priorities, and we are very much in sync with what the administration is trying to achieve more broadly. For example, sustainability, as we've talked about for a long time and we talked about today. We are the green form of ground transportation, pound for pound, mile for mile. We can handle freight more efficiently using less fuel and emitting less carbon than any other form of transportation. There's that, and we're building on it.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

I hope you noted the publication of our approved science-based target, the green bond that we issued, and many other measures that will be detailed in our ESG report that should come out shortly. Secondly, the administration and Congress are both very interested in infrastructure. Look no further than the rail industry for infrastructure that is in top shape. That's thanks to the private investment that's been made over many years in infrastructure. We excel there, and what we're doing is very much in line with what the administration and Congress want to achieve. Third, the great majority of our jobs are good-paying union jobs, to quote the president. There, too, we are a heavily unionized industry. The jobs pay well. They're good jobs, and we're hiring. That too lines up nicely with the administration's priorities.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

In terms of the STB, first, most of what we handle is truck competitive. Most of the freight that's on our railroad will move by truck if we move rates above the truck competitive level. For freight we handle that is less truck competitive, there exist many mechanisms before the STB to challenge the rates and to adjudicate their fairness. The customers utilize those mechanisms all the time. There's a way to challenge what we're doing before the STB. It works. The customers are familiar with it. The STB is familiar with it. It rests on a very sound policy framework. There's a lot of precedent. It's working, and we don't believe the STB will take measures to change all of that in the end.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

The STB has looked at reciprocal switching in the past and has concluded a number of times that it's not the right solution for the industry. Would create severe operational disruption, and that's not good for customers. That's not good for the railroads. That's not good for passenger trains either. In the end, I think they may invite evidence on that once again as they have several times in the past, but I think they'll conclude that that's not the right measure. The mechanisms that are already in place to determine whether rates are competitive are the best that we have. Thank you.

[Allison Landry, Analyst at Credit Suisse]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our final question for today is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

[David Vernon, Analyst at Bernstein]

Hey, thanks for squeezing me in here, Alan. Two quick ones for you. Can you comment on the trend in the intermodal RPU, sort of ex fuel and the fee increase, and what some of the drivers might have been there? The second question is really around sort of utility coal. You mentioned it's going to be down for the back half of the year. Are we kind of hitting a bottom as you think about it on a three-year view, or do we see, as you think about the retirement pipeline that's ahead of you, is there still further kind of room for that to bleed out into 2022, 2023?

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

David, the trend on intermodal RPU ex fuels, as I noted, we've got what? Four and a half years of quarterly growth year-over-year in that. I expect that to continue. As I noted before, based on our contract structure, we're going to have a lot of support for pricing into a market next year, not only because the market's strong next year, but right now, intermodal rates lag truck pretty significantly. There's a lot of headroom for us, and as our service product improves, there's going to be even more demand for what we're putting out there. With respect to utility coal, we've got some specific unit outages or retirements on our system that's going to impact year-over-year comps. We've got some planned maintenance. Frankly, it's an issue of overall coal supply.

[Alan Shaw, CMO at Norfolk Southern]

Coal production in the United States this year is projected to be down 18% compared to just 2018. There are some unsold tons out there from the producers, but we're not sure if those are going to go export or domestic. With the export thermal market so hot with API2 well above $100, there's a lot of pull for that product overseas. If that happens, we'll continue to handle it, and that was certainly one of the drivers of our significant growth in our export franchise in the second quarter.

[David Vernon, Analyst at Bernstein]

All right. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Jim Squires for closing comments.

[Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO at Norfolk Southern]

Thank you everyone for your questions today, and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Have a good day.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

Participants

Executives

• Alan Shaw, CMO
• Cindy Sanborn, COO
• Jim Squires, Chairman, President, and CEO
• Mark George, CFO
• Meghan Achimasi, Senior Director of Investor Relations

Analysts

• Allison Landry, Analyst at Credit Suisse
• Amit Mehrotra, Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Bascome Majors, Analyst at Susquehanna
• Brandon Oglenski, Analyst at Barclays
• Brian Ossenbeck, Analyst at JPMorgan
• Chris Wetherbee, Analyst at Citi
• David Vernon, Analyst at Bernstein
• Fadi Chamoun, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
• Jonathan Chappell, Analyst at Evercore ISI
• Jordan Alliger, Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Justin Long, Analyst at Stephens
• Ken Hoexter, Analyst at Bank of America
• Ravi Shanker, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
• Scott Group, Analyst at Wolfe Research
• Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst at UBS
• Walter Spracklin, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets