Ecolab Q2 2022 Earnings Report

Ecolab EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.10
• Consensus EPS: $1.08
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.02
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.22

Ecolab Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $3.58 billion
• Expected Revenue: $3.48 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$97.36 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +13.20%

Ecolab Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2022
• Date: 7/26/2022
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, July 26, 2022
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Ecolab (NYSE:ECL) (NYSE:ECL) is a global provider of water, hygiene, infection prevention and related services. The company helps businesses maintain clean, safe and efficient operations through specialized products, technologies, equipment and on-site expertise.

Its offerings include cleaning and sanitizing solutions, water treatment and process-management systems, food safety programs, infection prevention products, pest elimination services and solutions for industrial operations. Ecolab serves customers in industries including hospitality, healthcare, food and beverage production, life sciences, manufacturing, energy, retail and institutional services.

The company was founded in 1923 as Economics Laboratory and adopted the Ecolab name in 1986. Ecolab serves customers internationally through operations and field teams across numerous regions. Christophe Beck has served as the company’s president and chief executive officer since 2022.

Ecolab Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Double-digit organic growth in Q2 despite 30% product cost inflation and FX headwinds, with pricing momentum now ahead of inflation and gross margins “turned the corner.”
• An 8–12% energy surcharge on oil and natural gas has been rolled out alongside structural price hikes, giving Ecolab a dynamic tool to recapture surging energy costs.
• Having addressed inflation, the company is shifting from defense to offense by prioritizing new business wins, a record innovation pipeline, and major share gains in its $152 billion market opportunity.
• Q3 adjusted EPS is expected to show a sequentially narrowing decline—driven by at least $0.10 of FX headwind and softer volume—before low-double-digit pricing and productivity gains drive an EPS rebound in Q4.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions and high natural gas prices in Europe pose a risk of operational disruptions and softer customer demand, even though supply-chain resilience measures are in place.

Presentation

[Operator]

Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone today should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero from your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Hedberg, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Hedberg, you may now begin.

[Andy Hedberg, VP of Investor Relations at Ecolab]

Thank you, and hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's Second Quarter Conference Call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO, and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results, are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials which state that this teleconference and associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christophe Beck for his comments.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you so much, Andy, and welcome to everyone to our conference call. Andy, welcome to your new role as Head of Investor Relations after 15 years in the industry and 6 years alongside Mike Monahan. In 37 years, Mike has built a legacy of trust, transparency, and simple messages. He has built trusted relationship with all of you on the call by listening to you, by addressing your concerns, and by building on your ideas in good and in more challenging times. He shared openly with you what we were seeing, what we were doing about it, and where we were going to keep winning. In a world that feels like it's getting more complicated by the day, he kept describing our performance, our opportunities, and our concerns in simple and clear ways to make your life as investors as simple as it could be.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

None of that will change. Under your leadership, Andy, we will simply build further on Mike's great legacy. Now to our results. The second quarter concluded as expected. While facing 30% delivered product cost inflation and increased headwinds from FX translation, our global team managed to deliver once again sustained double-digit organic growth by driving new business and by accelerating pricing, both great signs of the real value we create for our customers and our margin growth potential. We almost doubled our total pricing from 5% in the first quarter to 9% in the second as we further strengthened our structural pricing and executed our first ever global energy surcharge with customers around the world in all our businesses in 172 countries in an extraordinary short period of time.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

We're now exiting the quarter with double-digit sales growth and pricing momentum that's now ahead of product cost inflation. Most importantly, with gross margins that have now turned a corner. In other words, we expect to see easing year-over-year margin pressure over the next two quarters. We're now in a fortunate position where our number one strategic priority over the past twelve months has been addressed. Getting ahead of inflation. This will now help us fully recover our gross margin over time and expand them even further in the long run. With margins getting on the right track, the time has now come to shift our primary focus to offense. With an environment that keeps getting more complicated, we do not expect the world economy to accelerate. We're therefore getting ready for that too. Our new business is strong and innovation pipelines are at record levels.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Our customer retention has remained largely unchanged, still north of 90%. With the industry's largest and best-trained sales force, with the resources and the capabilities to get the job done and serve our customers better than ever. With a business model with over 90% consumable revenue, with innovative technologies and services that are helping customers reduce their total operating costs when they need it most, like right now. A growing $152 billion market opportunity that will remain huge no matter what happens to the world economy. We therefore enter the second half of the year in a position of strength. With strong growth momentum and growing share across the board.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

With inflation and energy costs that seem to keep getting higher, especially natural gas in Europe and in the U.S., with the right pricing momentum to stay ahead of inflation and the right mechanism, if I may say, with the energy surcharges to mitigate spikes of energy costs over time. The shift from focusing primarily on pricing to major share gains will naturally take some time, but as we've demonstrated in the past, it will also lead to strong results down the road. We therefore expect overall performance to improve sequentially in the quarters to come. Q3 earnings will therefore continue to be driven by strong top-line growth, easing year-over-year margin pressure supported by solid pricing, but in the short term, will also be impacted by unfavorable currency translation and potentially softer volume growth as the team shifts their focus to major share gains.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

As a result, we expect Q3 to show a sequentially narrowing decline in year-over-year adjusted earnings per share, including the impact of at least $0.10 of FX headwinds. Now, with the total pricing already at low double-digit levels, new business generation to drive share gains, breakthrough innovation and productivity benefits to drive margins, we expect fourth quarter to show accelerated adjusted earnings per share growth, resulting in modest growth in full year 2022 adjusted earnings per share. Now let me conclude my remarks on a more personal note. I love growth, and I hate just as much as you do low earnings growth. This is not who we are and certainly not who I am, except when it's because we've done the right thing the right way for our future. Like keeping our global team and capabilities intact at a very high cost during the COVID lockdowns.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Like managing pricing in a way that protected long-term customer retention. Like maintaining growth investments in new products, digital technologies, and new high-growth businesses to gain market share and significantly increase our opportunities. As intense as it is right now, our near-term momentum keeps building, and our long-term opportunities have never been greater. That's why I've never been more bullish about the future of this company. Our $152 billion market opportunity keeps getting bigger. When infection risk keeps rising with pandemics, with hospital-acquired infection, and with food safety challenges like we've seen lately in baby food production, we're here to help our customers.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

With water scarcity and a warming climate that's hurting businesses and people, we're here to help our customers reduce their total water and carbon footprint while reducing their total operating costs, helping to deliver superior long-term performance for them and for our shareholders, which is why I firmly believe that with Ecolab, the best is still yet to come. I look forward to your questions.

[Andy Hedberg, VP of Investor Relations at Ecolab]

Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question and answer period.

[Operator]

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. May I ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one brief follow-up question per caller so others will have a chance to participate. If you'd like to ask a question today, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Once again, that's star one. Thank you. Thank you. Our first question is coming from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please issue your question.

[Tim Mulrooney, Equity Research Analyst at William Blair]

Good afternoon, Christophe and Scott. Thanks for taking my question.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Good afternoon, Tim.

[Tim Mulrooney, Equity Research Analyst at William Blair]

I'd love to ask you about your share gains and innovation and all that, but I think I've got to stick to the basics at least starting out here. My first question's about raw material costs, not surprisingly, and then I've got a follow-up on pricing. Christophe, the last time we spoke, it was your expectation that delivered product costs would be up about 25% in 2022. Is that still your expectation? And can you kind of break that down in between what you saw in the first half of the year versus what you expect in the second half?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah, great question. Talking about raw materials, so first, I'd like just to step back, one step, last year. In 2021, we had 10% of delivered product cost inflation, which includes raws and freight, just to be clear as well on this one. We entered the year 2022 expecting 15%. You're right, we talked about 25%, and today we're closer to 30%, right now in the second quarter, and we expect that level of inflation, close to 30%, to remain till the end of the year.

[Tim Mulrooney, Equity Research Analyst at William Blair]

Okay, gotcha. It was a little less than 30% maybe in the first quarter, but then 30% in the second quarter and for the remainder of the year. That's helpful. Now if we layer on the pricing part of the conversation, Christophe, well, I guess net price costs turned into a net positive in June. Can you talk about how you expect or I guess what you expect for the price cost spread, how you expect that to play out through the second half of the year, and what that implies for gross margins moving forward?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah, with pleasure. The 30% as well, that we are experiencing right now and going forward for the next few quarters as well, just to put it in perspective, represents $1 billion of cost that our teams had or will have to overcome during the year, 2022. That's why it's been so remarkable that the team managed to get ahead of inflation during the last months of the quarter. When initially we thought that would happen in the first quarter of the year, the war started then in Ukraine and shifted unfortunately one more quarter because energy cost went through the roof. We started with the energy surcharge which worked out really well in the second quarter.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

We got structural pricing plus energy surcharge kind of well implemented during the last months of the quarter, and that's how we got ahead of delivered product cost inflation, so at the end of the second quarter. When I think about the second half of the year, we got the job done. We're ahead of inflation. That will remain for the foreseeable future, obviously, which means that the margin pressure is gonna ease over the quarters to come. This is gonna be true in Q3, but it is gonna be even more true in the fourth quarter as pricing and the energy surcharge together are gonna keep accelerating. I talked about so low double-digit levels in the second half.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

If we assume an easing of the 30% rate of inflation for the next two quarters, Q4. It should be a very nice margin play, which is why we're expecting as well accelerated growth in terms of earnings per share in Q4.

[Tim Mulrooney, Equity Research Analyst at William Blair]

Got it. Thank you.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you, Tim.

[Operator]

Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please issue your questions.

[Ronan Kennedy, VP at Barclays]

Hi, this is Ronan Kennedy. I'm from Manav. Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my call. Christophe, may I ask if you could just recap the outlook? I know you touched on potentially unfavorable volume growth or growth not accelerating as initially anticipated. Can you just recap what the outlook is for the second half and into 2023 from a growth standpoint? And if you are starting to see, you know, obviously the inflationary pressures are immense, but are you starting to see some macro pressures as well?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Well, great question, Ronan. The overall picture for 2022, we were expecting from an economic perspective a continuous acceleration during the year. Over the past few months, obviously, the environment has changed. That being said, our own trajectory as Ecolab has remained fairly stable. 13% organic growth in the first quarter, 13% in the second quarter, and we expect something similar in the quarters to come as well. It's basically having our own views focused on the potential risk of an economic slowdown. All indicators are showing that direction.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

In our own businesses, it's not obvious yet, but we're not immune, obviously, to whatever could happen in the world out there, which is why, first, we believe in our models of being great in that kind of environment, which is very different than the lockdowns of COVID, which was just an industry. Stopping to operate when we talk of a slowdown, this is something that we're very used to, and we like it because our model ultimately 90% consumable revenues. That means recurring, our promise to customers, it's to help them with premium products to reduce their total operating costs. That's ultimately when they need us even more in those moments. Our model very well aligned with a potentially slowing environment.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Ultimately, that's why, as I've mentioned as well, in my earnings quote, that the shift from primarily focusing on pricing to primarily focusing on new business will come at the right time as well, which is a shift that we've done many times as well in the past. Overall, an environment that might be slowing down and with what we're undertaking, expecting kind of a stable momentum in the quarters to come with potential downside risk that we can manage as well.

[Ronan Kennedy, VP at Barclays]

Thank you. That's very helpful. With regard to that shift in focus, I think you would also refer to it as going from defense to offense. What does that entail, that shift to focus on new business wins? Are there other elements to kind of a downturn playbook that may be different than the approach that was taken during the unprecedented height of the COVID pandemic, where the focus was on, you know, protecting the company, your employees, and customers?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yes, I think that what we're heading towards today is kind of something that the company has been used to in any more difficult times over our history. We're a sales organization. We have a sales culture. We're sales driven, which means that half of our company is driven by two things. The first one is new business, the second is price. Since it's all about execution, it's important to set for the organization what's the clear primary priority. Is it price or is it new business? Well, you do both, obviously, at the same time. Well, in the last 12 months with this high inflation that came on us, like everybody else, ultimately, primary focus had to be pricing, and the team got it done.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

It's kind of shifting and saying you focus primarily on new business while you keep driving pricing. It's selling new accounts, it's expanding penetration, it's selling innovation while you get price as well because we create more value as well, so for them. It's a shift between primary focus from price to new business that we've done over time in our history. It takes a few months obviously to get in gear, but this is something that we're very familiar with, so I'm not worried about that.

[Ronan Kennedy, VP at Barclays]

Thank you. I appreciate it.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you, Ronan.

[Operator]

Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Begleiter, your line is live for questions.

[David Begleiter, Director at Deutsche Bank]

I'm sorry. Can you hear me?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah, we can hear you, David.

[David Begleiter, Director at Deutsche Bank]

Sorry about that, Christophe. Yeah, back to the Q4 guidance, Christophe. You're guiding to about 20% share growth, EPS growth from Q3 to Q4. Pretty sharp ramp up. Is it just the additional pricing or are there other drivers of that additional price increase? Of that additional earnings growth from Q3 to Q4?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

It's the combination of many factors. When we think about the third quarter, it's mostly impacted by FX, the $0.10 that we've talked about. The EPS would be growing in the third quarter. If you look at Q4, it's gonna be the combination of business momentum. Driven by new business, as mentioned before. Added to it, pricing that's gonna keep strengthening together with the energy surcharge, as mentioned. We'll be in the low double-digit territory as well. Our productivity work is gonna keep working as well in our favor. We expect as well a stabilizing of the 30% delivered product cost inflation rate, as mentioned before.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

The combination of all ultimately is playing to the Ecolab model, where you see margins enhancement during the fourth quarter. It's not gonna be an improvement versus last year, but it's gonna be a sequential improvement, so from Q2 to Q3 to Q4. Which by the way, David, is really so playing in our favor longer term as well as we rebuild so our margins fully and then afterwards even expand that.

[David Begleiter, Director at Deutsche Bank]

Understood. Just briefly, of the energy surcharge you announced of 8%-12%, how much do you actually realize?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

It's hard to tell exactly the number. It's part of the 9% or the low double-digit for the second half. We estimate that it's roughly two-thirds is structural pricing and one-third is the energy surcharge. When we communicate in our press releases, that's always directional, that's a max. Afterwards, you need to respect contractual agreements with customers, you need to negotiate with customers, as well. Some customers have even chosen so to have the energy surcharge being included in the structural pricing, which makes the line between the two a little bit more fuzzy. I think that a good guide might be this two-thirds structural price and a third energy surcharge.

[David Begleiter, Director at Deutsche Bank]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you, David.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question.

[Seth Weber, Equity Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. I guess just another pricing question, Christophe. I mean, this, you know, talking about, say, 6% or 7% structural pricing, can you just give us your view on Ecolab's ability to retain that next year into 2023? You know, not asking for guidance for next year, but just your confidence level and the company's ability to keep that type of pricing next year. Thanks.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah. Thank you, Seth. The structural pricing, I have a very high level of confidence that we're gonna keep it. This is what we've done over the last 99 years, as a company. We're not cyclical in terms of a pricing evolution, so structural price is gonna stack the way we execute that with customers. The energy surcharge will be more of the question. I don't think that the energy costs are gonna come down anytime soon, unfortunately, I may almost say. Maybe one piece of information for you, Seth, is also that our energy surcharge, which was anchored on oil price, Brent, that everybody could read, has been complemented by the natural gas prices as well, which is becoming a bigger issue in Europe and in the U.S. for the same reasons as we know.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

It's gonna be a combination of oil and natural gas, which is why initially we called it as well the energy surcharge. How much are we gonna keep of all that? Whenever the market comes down, I think we're gonna keep part of it and some might be given back. Overall, the discussion with customers is driven by how do we build margins on our side, that's our internal discussion. Most importantly with customers is making sure that the return that they get on the investment that they've made in our value gets a positive return, which is ROI. I feel good about the way we can maintain our pricing that we've executed here. Some might get back, but it's gonna be marginal.

[Seth Weber, Equity Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

That's helpful. Thank you. Maybe just a quick follow-up on the Healthcare and life science margin was a little bit light versus what we were thinking. I saw some of the callouts in the slide deck and things like that, but is there anything that would prevent you know, the margins there? Is there something that's going on there just structurally that you know, the Purolite margin is obviously very high, so we you know, we're assuming that margins there get a lot better. Can you just talk about the ramp that we should expect in Healthcare and life science margins going forward? Thanks.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yes. It's really two different stories. Life Sciences and Purolite are doing very well. No issue on that side, and it's been very steady in the past, and it's gonna be steady in the future as well. Healthcare is a different story. That's where our challenge lies. Three things that I would mention. The first one is pricing with GPOs takes more time than with customers. That has an impact on margin. Second, in North America, elective surgeries took more time than expected initially. That's been an on and off. During COVID, as we know, quite a few times, that's where we make most of our money, as well, like hospitals do as well at the same time. That has an impact on the Healthcare margin.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Third, in Europe, we still compare to the so-called mega deals, so with governments, COVID activities related in 2020 and 2021, which is also having an impact on the Healthcare margins. But let me be very clear, Healthcare is not where it should be. It's not been so for a long time. There have been some better and some less great times in that business. We focused on it, we need to fix it, and we will fix it.

[Seth Weber, Equity Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Got it. Thank you. Very helpful. Thank you.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you, Seth.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of John Roberts with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

[John Roberts, Managing Director and Head of Bank Research at Credit Suisse]

Thank you. It sounds like base price is up 6% on its way to 7%. What is the base cost inflation that you're seeing? That is, what are costs up excluding energy?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

It's a difficult question, David, because when we talk about energy, we don't buy energy directly, as you know. The way we think about it is a third of our raw material cost is impacted by energy. Again, when we talk about energy, you have oil, and then you have natural gas. What we buy are second or third derivative of that. That's why it's a difficult question to answer here. I would say one way to think about it, we were thinking 2022 to have an inflation of 15% plus. We are at 30% right now, to a great extent, that DPC incremental inflation came through energy following the invasion end of February. That's maybe one way to think about it, but hard for us to really split the two. I rather focus on the 30% delivered product cost inflation, which is the true number.

[John Roberts, Managing Director and Head of Bank Research at Credit Suisse]

Okay. Maybe a different way to ask about price, but when you started to implement the surcharge, WTI oil was about $120 a barrel, and now it's $95. Back then, TTF gas was $25 a million BTU, now it's $60. It's there. Can you help us understand, like an average U.S. surcharge has gone down, I assume, because of the WTI drop, and the average European surcharge is going up because of the TTF gas increase?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

No, because the Brent is still so north of 100 right now, which is the same bracket as where we started in April, so during the second quarter, so no change there. It's not a perfect science as well, because if customers were to pay straight math, obviously, so you're in that bracket and you get 10%, so to take what we had in the press release, well, that'd be one situation. It's a negotiated number, which means that this one is not changing every month, either. On top of it, as you mentioned, and as I've mentioned as well earlier on that call, natural gas is the new game in town. You've mentioned the number in the U.S. going up pretty rapidly and in Europe, so even more.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Basically, where we are is that surcharge in the U.S. kind of unchanged to up because we are still executing more with customers that we haven't concluded yet. In Europe, we're moving further up because of the natural gas price increases that you've just mentioned.

[John Roberts, Managing Director and Head of Bank Research at Credit Suisse]

Yeah. Thank you.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you, John.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Josh Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.

[Josh Spector, Director of Equity Research at UBS]

Thanks for taking my question. Actually similar vein of the prior question. I was curious just to clarify. Is the surcharge essentially in for all customers now, or is there some percentage that's still being negotiated? When does it really take effect during the third quarter? Similar to kind of the prior question to an extent, if energy prices go up 20 or 30% into the fourth quarter, you have the surcharge in place. Are we gonna be talking about that there's a price cost catch-up in fourth quarter, or do you feel relatively insulated that what you've done has immunized that risk now?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

If there is not a major shock in the system, geopolitically, which could happen, if you look at what's happening with Russia and Ukraine today, we should be in a good shape. We're ahead of inflation as we exit the second quarter, as mentioned, and we will stay ahead with increased pricing in Q3 and Q4, any further execution of the energy surcharge as well in the months to come. Both together brings me in a reasonable place for Q3 and Q4, that we will stay ahead and expand as well, so the margin leverage or margin impact that we have on our business. Second, if something happens as well in the world, in Western Europe, especially impacting natural gas, as we just mentioned before, with David as well.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

With the energy surcharge, we have a mechanism as well that we can fairly short-term change in order to capture more pricing through the energy surcharge. This is pretty handy, which was what we had in mind when we launched as well. That was not just to react to what was happening back then following the invasion in February, but also being able to react with whatever could happen as well in the months and the quarter to come. Bottom line, I feel quite good about staying ahead of inflation and rebuilding margins in the months and quarter to come to fully restore and expand even further. If something happens in the world, it might take some time to increase the energy surcharge, but we have the mechanism to address that as well.

[Josh Spector, Director of Equity Research at UBS]

Thanks. Just to clarify, the inflation for the second half, you talked about 30%. What two-year stack of that inflation that you guys are planning for?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

The two-year stack, that was your question, Josh?

[Josh Spector, Director of Equity Research at UBS]

For the second half specifically, yeah.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah, last year we had, as mentioned, so we had 10% in Q3, we had 20% in Q4, and you add the 30% of this year. That's how you get your stacked two years model.

[Josh Spector, Director of Equity Research at UBS]

It'll be a 40%-50% two years is how you're thinking about it?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Directionally, that's right, yes. Over two years.

[Josh Spector, Director of Equity Research at UBS]

Okay. All right. Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.

[Christopher Parkinson, Managing Director at Mizuho]

Great. Thank you so much. Christophe, you know, a lot of your platforms and services, you know, ultimately pertain directly to your customers facing their own inflation, whether it's, you know, low temperature ware washing systems and, you know, even some stuff around, you know, commercial and water treatment in terms of prevention and obviously facing inevitably rising costs on their own side of things. You know, can you just offer a little bit more color on your ability to kind of continuously push price, just given the environment your own customers are in? I mean, has the narrative really changed between the value-added proposition of your products and services over the last year? And do, you know, customers ultimately recognize that? Just any color on that would be greatly appreciated.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

That's a great question, Chris. Thank you. Well, it speaks to our model that you're really familiar with. Our promise as a company has always been best results at the lowest total operating cost, which we measure with EROI, which is basically so how much cost savings versus investment customers are making. Our ambition is to be north of 25% return for the customer in here, with pricing in here as well. We stick as well to that model the way we operating with customers today. Usually we're north of the 25%, which gives us as well some margin as well to get even further pricing. So far, it's worked out pretty well. That's why I mentioned that our customer retention has remained very stable over the past 12-18 months.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Going forward, focusing even more on EROI will be essential for 2 reasons. First, to really keep executing pricing, but most importantly in times where economic environment might evolve as well. To the downside, if I may say, without mentioning the R word as well in here, customers need it even more. This is true in warewashing, this is true in laundry, this is true in water. It gets compounded as well, that most of the customers have a hard time as well as to find staffing, to get the job done, while our offering helps them get the same results or even better results with less people and less cost at the same time. That's why our value proposition is pretty ideal in such an environment where we help customers to get better results with less people and lower cost.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

That helps us execute margin and drive more new business.

[Christopher Parkinson, Managing Director at Mizuho]

Got it. Then in honor of Mr. Monahan, I'll make sure I say this correctly. As it pertains to your pest elimination business, not control, but elimination, I will always remember that. Can you give us a quick update? You know, it seems like things are kind of, you know, re-engaging there. You're getting a little bit more momentum in specifically North America. You know, it's been a huge focus of your ongoing enterprise selling initiatives. So just, you know, can you just help us kind of offer the framework of, you know, the current environment and how we should think about that intermediate longer term now that it seems like you're getting a little bit more traction in terms of the recovery? Thank you.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah. I love the relation to Mike Monahan. That's true. It's pest elimination, unlike competition that's controlling. You still have mice and rats running around, but you have less than before. With Ecolab, you have none, which is our promise. Back to the business. In here, pest elimination has been an exceptional business for many, many years. It's been strong during COVID in 2020. It was strong last year as well. You maybe remember, it was a double-digit top-line growth. It's been expanding its margins as well, both gross profit and ROI ratio as well.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

When I look at 2022, while it's kind of steady eddy, we are in double-digit territory as well in terms of top-line growth as well, with very strong margin as well. That's why I don't talk much about pest elimination, because the business is doing extremely well, has done well during difficult times and is doing well right now. It's a great team, very well led, and I look forward to even more going forward. A beautiful business.

[Christopher Parkinson, Managing Director at Mizuho]

Great. Thank you as always.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you, Chris.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

[John McNulty, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets]

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Christophe, maybe we can speak to the end markets for institutional. I know you're kind of battening down the hatches, it sounds like, for, you know, a potential recession. At the same time, you know, I guess I'd be curious to know where your institutional business is relative to pre-COVID, and if there's still some uplift to go there, even if we do kind of stumble a little bit into recession. I guess, how would you characterize that?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah, great question, John. Institutional is in a good shape and evolving very nicely. Honestly, I had expected that the market recovery would happen so way faster, way bolder. This is not what happened. That has nothing to do with us. Obviously, this is a market question. When I think about our business, institutional, well, if you compare it to 2019, for instance, which is kind of the base of pre-COVID, we are 5% ahead of 2019. We were 2% ahead of 2019 in the first quarter. That shows that the business is kind of in a good place and evolving very nicely as well. What's most interesting is that we're gaining shares as well.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

The comparison that we've done so many times as well. For the U.S., in restaurants, if you look at dine-in traffic, which means people coming in dining rooms, it's down 36% versus 2019. Our business in the same place is down only 3%, which means that we've gained huge share as well in the meantime. At the end of today, we're ahead of 2019 in terms of sales in the second quarter. In the quarters to come, two or three quarters, we will so recover the volume. In the second half of 2023, I believe we will recover as well the margins, which is the plan that we had all along. All in all, in a pretty good place.

[John McNulty, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets]

Got it. No, that's helpful color. I guess the second question would just be on the raw material front.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah.

[John McNulty, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets]

Your Industrial business in particular, if I have it right, has a reasonable amount of exposure to like propylene derivatives, things like that. Propylene is off, you know, at this point it's off about 25% quarter-over-quarter. I guess can you help us to think about that kind of basket? If you're starting to see any raw material relief yet, or if it's more just, look, these are derivatives, it takes time, but that's still on the come as we kinda look to the back half of the year. Is there a way to think about maybe some relief coming for you?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

It's clearly the latter, John. We don't buy anything at spot prices or there are some exceptions probably. Generally, no. It's also contract-based, more longer term. As you've mentioned, it's derivatives, second or third, of feedstock, as well, which means that it takes time to get through the system for us as well, which means as well the spikes are not that high, but it goes higher and stays longer, as well so for us. When I think about Industrial, they've done an exceptional job at pricing. They're ahead of the average. They got most of the DPC delivered product costs or impact since inflation started in second quarter last year. They've gotten pricing on the energy surcharge extremely well.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

They're ahead, obviously of DPC as well as they exit the second quarter. They're gonna have even higher pricing versus the average of the company. I think they're on an exceptional trajectory, doing really well in new business, in momentum, getting pricing, getting productivity as well. If you think quarters down the road, we will like what we will see from the Industrial business, which is half of our company. I'll just end on one thing. It's been especially a part of our business where at every inflationary cycle, they've done really good work in pricing and they helped improve their gross margin as well at each of those cycles as well going forward. In a way, as hard as it is right now, it's gonna be a good story in terms of margin for industrial going forward.

[John McNulty, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets]

Got it. Thanks very much for the color.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you, John.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

[Ashish Sabadra, Business and Information Services Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to focus on two items that was discussed at the National Restaurant Association show. One was on reigniting the Ecolab Certified program. I was wondering if you could talk about how that's coming along. Then obviously there was a discussion also around the significant pull from customers for digital solutions, next-gen products, if you could comment on that as well. Thanks.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah, thank you, Ashish. The two points situation hasn't changed much obviously. Since we met a few months ago, Ecolab Science Certified, as mentioned, so has been launched during COVID to support our customers in order to protect their own guests and ultimately so having more people coming to their restaurants or their hotels. It's kept being a very good story. We've become the leading program in the U.S. It's become stronger as well in the meantime. We're expecting, you know, to get in the next few quarters close to $100 million of incremental business, close to 100,000 of locations as well down the road.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

It's becoming a major program for us, for our customers, and ultimately it's gonna move beyond COVID and really making sure that our customers' customers feel safe when they get to their own restaurants, as we've talked all along. Now to digital solutions. Interestingly enough, with most of our customers struggling with staffing conditions, as we've seen when you go to restaurants, to hotels, to airports or wherever you go, ultimately our automated solutions for customers are helping them get the same job done with less people as well. While this is not only helping them on the staffing side, it's helping them on the cost side as well, which is good now and even more important going forward.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank God, we've kept investing behind digital solutions, which by the way, are helping ourselves as a company if you look at our SG&A productivity that has kept improving year-over-year and accelerated as well. During the past few years, this is almost directly related to the work that we've done with digital.

[Ashish Sabadra, Business and Information Services Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

That's very helpful color. Maybe if I can drill down further on the volume side of the Industrial segment, can you just talk about how that business obviously has morphed since the last GFC, both on the Nalco front but also on the core side, and also some of the growth drivers there, particularly animal health and data centers, how those progressing. Any color on those fronts will be helpful. Thanks.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

What's good in industrial is that it's very broad-based. All the businesses are doing really well. When I look at water, which is the biggest, strongest growth, food and beverage, downstream and paper, so the four big ones, obviously that we have had, are all doing so really well. It's not one business driving the whole industrial. It's very broad-based, and it's very broad-based geographically, as well, which is why I feel confident about the business, especially, as well going forward. In terms of demand, we haven't seen much reduction if I compare to 2019, for instance, as well, which is the right base, because you remove all the noise of COVID as well.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

In between, there's some noise, some variation, as well in there, but otherwise, so pretty steady, month after month. We'll see what happens in the months to come with the economic environment. Ultimately, very strong new business that's gonna help them obviously to mitigate any softening of demand out there. Second, the pricing evolution is extremely strong as well, as mentioned before. The combination of both is driving a very steady and healthy story for industrial.

[Ashish Sabadra, Business and Information Services Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Thanks a lot, Christophe.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question has come from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

[Jeff Zekauskas, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Thanks very much. You expect the lower earnings per share comparison in the third quarter versus the year ago. You've said that your raw materials are being offset now by price increases. You've got a little bit of negative currency. Does that mean that volumes are about flat in the third quarter year-on-year?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

The key points, Jeff, you're right that Q3 2022 is gonna be lower than Q3 2021, as mentioned, mostly impacted by the FX, the $0.10 that I've mentioned as well earlier. Without that, we would be in positive territory. That being said, I'd like to add two points. The first one is we compare to Q3 last year, which was a strong recovery in our institutional market. Ultimately, the volume growth in Q3 will be lower than what we have in Q2 because we're comparing to this reopening post the third or fourth COVID wave that we experienced in institutional.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

The last point, I'll mention as well, there might be some conservatism, as well in terms of volume, from my side as well in here. Looking at what's happening around the world, I want to be as well on the safe side. You have all three. You have the FX, you have the comparison to reopening in institutional in 2021, and there might be as well some caution from our part in terms of economic development.

[Jeff Zekauskas, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Okay. Ecolab has maintained its staffing levels since 2020, I think with the idea that the global economy would recover and the restaurant industry would come back, and that there would be no strong inflationary effects. There have been inflationary effects. It has been a slower recovery for the restaurant industry, and it looks like we may be going into recession. Should you be thinking about restructuring your operations or having a lower cost structure than what you've got now?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

We're not planning for restructuring. At least nothing broad-based. You will always have some pockets around the world. We're a large organization operating in many countries around the world. Obviously, not everything is created equal, and we will keep improving our operations wherever we operate around the world. Broad-based, no, nothing major is expected, at least with everything we know right now, so from the environment. If you look at our SG&A, as well, so over the past few years, we've done some very good progress, as well in terms of productivity, and we're gonna keep doing that as well going forward, mostly driven by digital automation, which means that with the same team, we can serve more customers and do more, with the customers that we're serving as well, so directly driven by digital automation.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

If in the past, our company was growing its team more or less at the same speed as the company was growing, that's gonna change in the years to come, not because our model has changed, but because our technology is helping our teams do more with less. Last point, I'd say in hindsight, Jeff, I would do again the same thing. If we would have reduced our team in 2020 when most of our customers did, ultimately, well, we would've lost all those relationships. We would've lost all the capabilities and expertise that this team had. We've kept it. This is a huge advantage for us, for our customers, and going forward. Our productivity is gonna keep improving in the years to come.

[Jeff Zekauskas, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Great. Thank you so much.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you, Jeff.

[Operator]

The next question's coming from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.

[Vincent Andrews, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you, good afternoon. Christophe, could you talk a bit about Europe? I guess I'm less focused on sort of, you know, consumer recession type angles and more just thinking about the energy situation over there and how Ecolab would be impacted if there were natural gas or electricity shortages, you know, in the fourth quarter and potentially into the first quarter. What would that do to your own operations and ability to produce or procure raw materials? What might it do to some subset of your customer base? Presumably you don't have anything baked in for these risks in the second half guidance. Thanks.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah, this is a great question. There's some I know and some we don't know, obviously. Starting first with our business in Europe, overall doing really well, growing double-digit. It's been very resilient during the COVID times as well. Overall, Ecolab in Europe, doing so really well. Now, to your question of operational resilience, depending on what could happen on the eastern front, we have a very good supply chain team that has been tried year after year when you think about it. What we went through over the past few years, such as natural catastrophes in the U.S. like the Texas freeze or what happened in China, as well. With all the lockdowns that we had to go through, we've managed to really supply our customers in remarkable ways around the world in very difficult situation.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

When I think about Europe, our team was there together as well over the last few weeks thinking about the extreme scenarios and ensuring supply during those times. I feel reasonably good about our ability to ensure supply in the case that natural gas would be stopped from Russia, which I guess is the core of your question. The impact on our customers is way harder to answer because obviously we don't operate for them. Depending on how they're gonna do, that's gonna have an influence on us. This is something I can't obviously influence. The only thing we can do is ensure the supply and driving as well, new business with existing and new customers as well to try to mitigate that as well as we can.

[Vincent Andrews, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley]

Okay. As a follow-up, you know, you referenced in the back half guidance, you sort of let us know that maybe you were being a little conservative on the volume side of the equation. You know, where do you think the biggest risks are to the back half forecast if it doesn't come in where you think it's going to? What are the one or two things that you're worried about in relation to the forecast?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

It's hard to tell, but the hotspots are obviously starting with Europe for all the reasons that you mentioned before. Geopolitically, not an easy situation obviously there. We have a great business doing really well with a very strong team, but okay, we can't create miracles, as well either. So I'm very cautious about what could happen in Europe. In the U.S., the economy is not gonna accelerate. We'll see, so what the print will be, so for GDP as well in the second quarter in the U.S., while it's gonna head towards more of a slowdown than an acceleration. That's the second area. The third one, that was a bit of a question mark at least a few months ago, was China. I've become a little bit more comfortable with the situation in China.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Our business is doing reasonably well, all considered, as well over there. First, Europe, quite a bit behind the U.S. and way out, China. Overall it's to remain cautious and to think about all that could happen to have as well contingency plan in place in case things would happen differently than what people would expect.

[Vincent Andrews, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you very much.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question's coming from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

[Steve Byrne, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Yes. Thank you. Within your Water treatment business, are municipal water supply authorities currently customers of yours? And if not, is there something structural about that end market that is not of interest to you? One would think that drinking water standards are only gonna get more challenging for these municipalities. Just curious to hear your outlook and interest for that end market.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Well, let me start by saying, Steve, that we are literally not in the Municipal Water business by choice. We do maybe a few million here and there, but it's totally irrelevant for our company because we do not wanna be in that business. We have so much more to do on the industrial and institutional and Healthcare end markets that we know extremely well as a company. When I think about what's the main reason for that, well, first, it's choice of priorities. We wanna really so stay focused where we can truly win. Second, most importantly, the way we sell, as mentioned before, it's really so helping customers improve the total operating costs while reducing the environmental impact.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

This is a value proposition that resonates extremely well with companies. Municipal, by definition, are governments. Governments do not think that way in terms of total operating costs. It's much more, "What's my budget that I have for the year?" This is not the way we drive our business, so there's a mismatch as well here. Is it gonna stay like that for the next 50 years? I don't know. For now, no interest in entering the municipal market.

[Steve Byrne, Managing Director at Bank of America]

With respect to innovation, can you comment on what areas of focus you're particularly excited about with respect to new products from innovation?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

We have some great stories. It's been the case for many years obviously, so in our company. I would start, you know, with a few macro innovation. The first one is Ecolab Science Certified. As mentioned before, this is a comprehensive program for institutional customers, restaurants and hotels that are protecting their guests. That's been a major innovation for us. In the industrial field, think about Net Zero Water. This is a comprehensive set of programs that's helping our customers deliver on the sustainability commitments or ambition as well. We are uniquely positioned to help customers so get there. This is a major driver for the future. Think about Purolite. It's an acquired, obviously innovation that's growing fast, very high margin.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

This is new to our portfolio. The last I'd mention is ECOLAB3D, probably one of the largest industrial clouds out there that we've been building over years, where we have thousands of plants that are connected that they can improve their performance in real time, compare as well the performance, unit versus unit within a company, across an industry, and across industries as well. Those are four key innovation that I would qualify so as enterprise innovation as well. You can think about data centers as well. We didn't have a program for data centers. It's a new business. We started that a few years ago. Extremely successful as well. This is a good one as well.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Think about Lobster Ink, which is also providing online real-time training for institutional customers, hotels and restaurants with all the staffing changes they have. We have close to 3 million users as well today, so working really well as well. I can maybe mention just the last one, which is during COVID, we've launched as well our fastest kill for COVID virus in 15 seconds program for institutional customers, hotels, and restaurants as well, that have been used as well in Healthcare. Those are just a little bit, a list of innovation that are coming to mind with your question.

[Steve Byrne, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your questions.

[Scott Schneeberger, Managing Director at Oppenheimer]

Thanks very much. Good afternoon. Yeah, could you elaborate on specifically the Healthcare segment, Christophe? Could we see that return to revenue growth in the third quarter and maybe some commentary on your view of elective procedures, excuse me, versus pre-pandemic levels? Thanks.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah. I wanna be careful on this one. As mentioned before, Healthcare is a business that still needs work. I like the focus that we have on it. It's gonna take some time. As much as I hate it and you hate it, as well, I think thinking about the fourth quarter to see growth in Healthcare, not in the group Healthcare and Life Science, obviously. Life science is in a great shape. It's clearly so Healthcare. I think it's more looking at the fourth quarter growth is probably more realistic. If we can improve in Q3, well, that's gonna be even better. I would really focus on Q4.

[Scott Schneeberger, Managing Director at Oppenheimer]

Thanks. Appreciate that. Then, could you categorize just overall or summarize, it was in the press release this quarter or last quarter, investments in the business and last quarter was investments in the sales force. Could you just categorize broadly where the company is making investments and just levels of magnitude? Do you anticipate amplifying that? Or if you know, if the economy takes a turn for the worst, how discretionary on your ability to pull back? You'd mentioned just a few questions ago that digital is something that's a very consistent spending logically. But if you can just categorize the broad base of investments, that'd be appreciated. Thanks.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah. Macro picture, investments stable. They've been stable over the past few years. They're gonna stay stable, in the years to come, as well. If you think about CapEx, for instance, 6% of our sales, that's been steady Eddie for a very long time, and it's gonna stay as well like that. Second, our SG&A, you've seen productivity's always improving as well every single year, and we will keep doing that as well, so it's investing in our team, but driving SG&A productivity as well at the same time. If I think about incremental investment, it's gonna be mostly on two areas or three areas, sorry. The first one, our growth businesses, like life science, like Purolite, like data centers, like animal health.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Those high-growth, high-margin businesses, we will obviously keep over-investing in those ones because we wanna build our leadership position as well going forward. Second is in digital for the reasons that you mentioned before. It's adding value for our customers, it's driving a better experience for our customers, and it's driving productivity. All good reasons as well to do it the right way. Included in that, you have cybersecurity as well. The more digital you do, the more cyber risk you get, the more you need to protect yourself. We need to obviously make sure that we're well protected, and I like where we are. Third is behind innovation, the products or the programs I mentioned before as well to the previous question. We will keep over-investing as well.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Overall, very steady in terms of overall envelope of investment, both CapEx and OpEx.

[Scott Schneeberger, Managing Director at Oppenheimer]

Great. Thanks for that overview, Christophe.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you, Scott.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.

[Dan Rizzo, Analyst at Jefferies]

Hi, this is Dan Rizzo for Laurence. Thanks for fitting me in. Just one quick one. If we think about the $0.10 FX headwind in Q3 and the $0.30 for 2022, what are the assumptions for where the euro and the pound are gonna be trading over the next six months or so or next five months or so?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Hey, that's a great question, Dan. Let me pass it to Scott, our CFO, who has more details on that.

[Scott Kirkland, CFO at Ecolab]

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Dan. Yeah, as you might expect, we're expecting, you know, continued rate hikes through the end of the year, you know, probably in the range of 8. As you see that FX, it's ramped up through the second quarter, and we're expected to double basically in the second half relative to the first half, so about the $0.30, as you said.

[Dan Rizzo, Analyst at Jefferies]

All right. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

The next question coming from the line of Andy Wittmann with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

[Andy Wittmann, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

Hi. Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Scott, I was hoping to keep you going here, I guess, and talk about free cash flow. You know, year-to-date, the free cash flow of the business is, I guess I'm calculating, just under $200 million, which I think is probably a little bit behind pace. It looks like inventory and accounts receivable has consumed a decent amount of capital, and I suppose given the revenue line, that's somewhat explainable. Could you just talk about your forecast for the year, what we should be thinking about what free cash flow generation could potentially look like, and if there's anything else going on in some of these key working capital accounts that we should know about besides fact effects from the top line?

[Scott Kirkland, CFO at Ecolab]

Thanks for that question, Andy. No, you're spot on with that is the free cash flow really for the first half of the year is as we expected, and as you're seeing the increases in sales, the investments in working capital, as well as CapEx, which as a reminder, about half of our CapEx is customer-related equipment. As we see new business and growth in the business, we invest in CapEx, but expect that to be in line, as Christophe said, that 5%-6% of sales historically. As you think about the full year, we continue to expect, as we talked after Q1, to have our free cash flow conversion in that mid-90%, consistent with historical.

[Andy Wittmann, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is from the line of Eric Petrie with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

[Eric Petrie, U.S. Chemicals Analyst at Citi]

Hi. Good afternoon, Christophe. Good afternoon, Eric. It's my understanding to get the Ecolab Science Certified seal, you have to buy the majority of products from Ecolab. How does that compare to your existing customer base in terms of supplier diversity?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

I wanna make sure I get your question right. When you say supplier diversity in terms of ethnic minorities, is it what you're talking about?

[Eric Petrie, U.S. Chemicals Analyst at Citi]

Yeah, yeah. How much your existing customer base buys from you versus others.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Okay. Well, in terms of customers, this is a good question. I don't have the exact answer, so for that. We can work on that and come back obviously to you. We are extremely driven obviously by both diversity inside our company and outside our company. This is true for our customers, and we have good progress there, but I wanna make sure we get the right facts, and Andy is gonna come back to you. When I think about supplier diversity for the company, we've delivered on our commitments. We've improved dramatically as well. Our purchases from minorities as well and diverse suppliers in the country, in the U.S. as well, we're perfectly on track versus what we had expected so far.

[Eric Petrie, U.S. Chemicals Analyst at Citi]

Okay. For my follow-up, how did your volume and mix fare by month in the quarter? Directionally, how did it trend in July with the surcharge in place?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

We usually don't give that granularity within the quarter. It's also not a straight line, so within a quarter as well. We have some seasonality as well that's coming as well into play. We usually don't have big spikes within a quarter as well. What we've communicated for the quarter is a good proxy in what we've seen in the second quarter. The third quarter, pricing is gonna be an even bigger share versus volume, which is not surprising since pricing is going up. Total organic growth is gonna remain strong, which means that volume is gonna remain stable down in the meantime going forward.

[Eric Petrie, U.S. Chemicals Analyst at Citi]

Thank you, Christophe.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research. Please proceed with your questions.

[Kevin McCarthy, Partner at Vertical Research]

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Christophe, with regard to your Global Institutional and Specialty segment, do you have new structural price increases on the table or set to flow through in the back half outside of the realm of surcharges?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Absolutely. Kevin, first and foremost, pricing in our company is happening in every business every single year, and that's been true so far for a very long time, maybe since the company started, as well. This is really a muscle that we keep practicing every single year. Pricing is something that sticks as well in our model because it's driven with the value, the return, the ROI that we are providing to our customers. We're gonna keep driving structural pricing in all businesses, including institutional obviously, in the months, quarters, and years to come. On top of it, is coming the energy surcharge, which is related to the energy, oil, and gas markets, as mentioned as well before.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

The beauty of the structural price is really that it's driven by the value, that we create for our customers, which is this ROI, how much savings do we help them create in their own operations versus the investment that they're making. We're really making sure that that returns, so stays as strong as it can be. Pricing is true for every business, and it's gonna continue to be the case in the years to come.

[Kevin McCarthy, Partner at Vertical Research]

I see. That's helpful. Then as a follow-up, you know, sticking with the Global Institutional segment, if I look pre-pandemic, you earned pretty consistently between, you know, $930 million of EBIT to about $1 billion back in 2018. If I compare those sorts of levels to where you're tracking this year, it seems as though, you know, you've got maybe $300 million or more of price cost to make up. Do you agree with that math? If so, you know, what kind of time might be required to restore the profitability to the older levels?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah, as I mentioned before, to take the big picture, I think from a margin perspective, in institutional, it's probably the second half of 2023 that we're gonna get there in terms of ratio. In terms of volume, I'm expecting that. First half of next year in terms of sales, we are ahead, obviously already now. We're working as hard as we can so to get as quick as we can towards those milestones that I just mentioned. Macro, that's a good proxy. That being said, it's important to keep in mind as well that institutional, like most of our businesses in the company, post this cycle are gonna be in a stronger place, than they were before, driven by three things.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

First, we've gained share, so we have bigger businesses. Second, we have a pricing driven by the value that we create, that takes time to get to the right place, but it's driving margin leverage. Third, we have this digital automation that's gonna keep helping. The SG&A ratio, which is gonna be a good story. Taking time, I wanna do that the right way. Takes more time. It's kind of short-term pain for long-term gain, but I feel really good about where we're going with Institutional. Last point, Institutional was mostly driven by North America, as you know. From an EBIT perspective, I like the fact that the regions around the world are improving as well in the meantime, especially Europe as well. It's a business that's getting stronger as well from a geographic perspective, which is also good in terms of stability going forward.

[Kevin McCarthy, Partner at Vertical Research]

Thank you very much.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli Funds. Please proceed with your questions.

[Rosemarie Morbelli, Portfolio Manager at Gabelli Funds]

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Bonjour, Christophe.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

[Foreign language]. Bonjour, Rosemary.

[Rosemarie Morbelli, Portfolio Manager at Gabelli Funds]

If we look at Healthcare for a minute, I mean, that has been kind of a problem child for a while. Do you have any specific path to get the margin, the profitability of that business to the level of your other operations?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah, it's a great question. You're right that it's been a problem child for quite a while. That's one way to put it. The way I'm expressing it within the organization is to say, well, it's a dream that hasn't come true yet, because the promise of reducing hospital-acquired infection in hospital makes human sense, people hurting less and it makes profitability sense for hospitals because it's less work, obviously, since people are not readmitted for new infections that they get. I like the promise. I don't like the journey that we've been on. It's taken way too long for us to get to the right place, and we're not at the right place yet. Now back to your question.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

The main driver is really to focus on those programs, as I mentioned, during the Investor Day as well, which is Central Sterile, for instance, which is kind of like a big kitchen. Our Healthcare team doesn't like when I compare that way, a restaurant to a hospital. You have a dish machine in a Central Sterile with all the instruments coming in. This is where we can play. This is where we know how to win. This is how we know where to make money as well. That's a core program that I wanna strengthen and build around it. Our programs are doing really well. They're unfortunately only 40% of the total business today. As that will grow, the business will improve. It's taking time, too much time, but we will get there as well.

[Rosemarie Morbelli, Portfolio Manager at Gabelli Funds]

All right, thank you. If I look at the pro forma gross margin in 2019, it was 44%. What is the likelihood that you can get back to that before 2025, even if we have a mild recession?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

I feel really good about getting back there. Obviously, the work that we've done on structural pricing, on energy surcharge, is gonna be the main driver for us to get there. On top of it, you have the productivity improvements driven by digital automation in SG&A and in our operations as well. Getting back to the 44% is step one. Step two is to build even beyond the 44%. The question will be the timing, and the timing is related obviously to the shape of inflation in the quarters a year to come. The trajectory, I have zero doubt that we're gonna get us to the right place. The only question is how fast we're gonna get there, and that's depending mostly on external factors.

[Rosemarie Morbelli, Portfolio Manager at Gabelli Funds]

Okay. [Foreign language]. Merci beaucoup.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

[Foreign language]. Merci à toi.

[Operator]

Our final question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners. Please proceed with your questions.

[Mike Harrison, Managing Director and Senior Chemicals Analyst at Seaport Research]

Hey, good afternoon.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Hi, Mike.

[Mike Harrison, Managing Director and Senior Chemicals Analyst at Seaport Research]

I had a couple of quick ones, hopefully. One's on Purolite. The capacity additions, I guess I thought that some of those were gonna start to trickle in in Q3, but it sounds like you're still sold out through Q3. Is there gonna be some additional commercial volume in Q4? And, are you at a point right now where you're able to base load that additional capacity with customer commitments?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Yeah, we're in a great place. It's an interesting problem to have where demand is really strong. With the innovation we're bringing to the market even stronger, when we combine what we're doing in life science and water as well, for our customers. We've maxed out capacity. As you mentioned, we hope to bring that capacity online during the third quarter. Knowing exactly when that's gonna happen, I don't know yet, and that's why I'm assuming that's probably gonna take us till the end of the third quarter. We wanna do that extremely well. Quality needs to be absolutely secured. Those are pharma products, as you know, as well.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

We wanna do it as well, so the Ecolab way, which means that it's gonna be unleashed in Q4 and in 2023. It's taking a bit more time than what I would have wished to build that capacity, but I like the trade of getting very solid quality, even if it's taking a little bit more time. I'm building for the future here. If the future is in Q4 instead of Q3, I'm fine with that. The trajectory is gonna be really nice, and the more I look at that business, the more I like it.

[Mike Harrison, Managing Director and Senior Chemicals Analyst at Seaport Research]

All right. The Paper business continues to be very strong. Can you give Christophe some additional color? Are you taking some market share, and if so, is that more of a new customer or new mill win, or is it expanding share of wallet with existing customers?

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

It's all of the above. It's a fascinating business, paper, and especially since we've evolved over time from old graphic paper, so paper you write on, to more consumer products, which are tissues and boxes for the most part. This is a market that's strong that requires a lot of technology that we can provide as well that is much less cyclical than printing paper ultimately here. The portfolio shift that we've made in paper towards consumer products has been extremely successful, both from a sales perspective, attractiveness of what we're doing, and margins as well, because we help those consumer goods companies operating at a lower total cost while reducing their environmental impact.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

They use a lot of water, as you probably know, as well, and create a lot of waste. Well, what we offer to them helps them reduce environmental impact, reduce the total cost, and improve the quality, as well, of the finished product. It's a good story, and this team has been great at executing pricing, as well, which on top of it, makes it an even better business.

[Mike Harrison, Managing Director and Senior Chemicals Analyst at Seaport Research]

All right. Thanks very much.

[Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO at Ecolab]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. We've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'll hand the floor to Mr. Hedberg for further remarks.

[Andy Hedberg, VP of Investor Relations at Ecolab]

Thank you. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation, and hope everyone has a great rest of the day.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you.

Participants

Executives

• Andy Hedberg, VP of Investor Relations
• Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO
• Scott Kirkland, CFO

Analysts

• Andy Wittmann, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Baird
• Ashish Sabadra, Business and Information Services Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
• Christopher Parkinson, Managing Director at Mizuho
• Dan Rizzo, Analyst at Jefferies
• David Begleiter, Director at Deutsche Bank
• Eric Petrie, U.S. Chemicals Analyst at Citi
• Jeff Zekauskas, Analyst at JPMorgan
• John McNulty, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets
• John Roberts, Managing Director and Head of Bank Research at Credit Suisse
• Josh Spector, Director of Equity Research at UBS
• Kevin McCarthy, Partner at Vertical Research
• Mike Harrison, Managing Director and Senior Chemicals Analyst at Seaport Research
• Ronan Kennedy, VP at Barclays
• Rosemarie Morbelli, Portfolio Manager at Gabelli Funds
• Scott Schneeberger, Managing Director at Oppenheimer
• Seth Weber, Equity Research Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities
• Steve Byrne, Managing Director at Bank of America
• Tim Mulrooney, Equity Research Analyst at William Blair
• Vincent Andrews, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley