TJX Companies Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 16, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • During Q2, TJX delivered 6% comparable store sales growth fueled by increased customer traffic across all divisions, with Marmaxx posting an 8% comp gain and HomeGoods up 4%.
  • Gross profit margin expanded by 200 basis points year-over-year, pre-tax profit margin rose 120 basis points, and EPS climbed 23% to $0.85, leading management to raise its full-year sales and earnings guidance.
  • The company now expects full-year comparable store sales of 3–4% and adjusted EPS of $3.56–$3.62 on a 53-week basis, supported by a strong Q3 start and plans to open about 125 net new stores.
  • TJX is benefiting from lower freight costs and favorable inventory positions—inventory down 7% versus last year—but faces headwinds from increased shrink, higher store wage and incentive costs, and a one-time German COVID-related reserve.
  • At quarter end, TJX had $4.6 billion in cash, generated $1.3 billion in operating cash flow, paid down $500 million of debt, and returned $932 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.
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Earnings Conference Call
TJX Companies Q2 2024
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Moderator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to The TJX Companies' second quarter fiscal 2024 financial results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, you will need to press star one. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded August 16, 2023. I would like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Ernie Herrman, Chief Executive Officer and President of The TJX Companies, Inc. Please go ahead, sir.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Thanks, Sheila. Before we begin, Deb has some opening comments.

Deb McConnell
Deb McConnell
SVP of Global Communications at The TJX Companies

Thank you, Ernie, and good morning. The forward-looking statements we make today about the company's results and plans are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially. These risks are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including, without limitation, the Form 10-K filed March 29th, 2023. Further, these comments and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by The TJX Companies, Inc. Any recording, retransmission, reproduction, or other use of the same, for profit or otherwise, without prior consent of TJX, is prohibited and a violation of United States copyright and other laws. Additionally, while we have approved the publishing of a transcript of this call by a third party, we take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in that transcript.

Deb McConnell
Deb McConnell
SVP of Global Communications at The TJX Companies

We have detailed the impact of foreign exchange on our consolidated results and our international divisions in today's press release and the investor section of our website, tjx.com. Reconciliations of other non-GAAP measures we discuss today to GAAP measures are also posted on our website, tjx.com, in the Investors section. Thank you. Now I'll turn it back over to Ernie.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Good morning. Joining me and Deb on the call is John Klinger. I'd like to begin today by once again recognizing our global associates for their dedication to TJX. It is their hard work that brings our business to life every day for our customers. I want to extend a special thank you to our store, distribution, and fulfillment center associates for their continued very hard work and commitment to our company. I want to take a moment on the wildfires in Maui. We are grateful that our associates in Maui and the rest of Hawaii are safe, and at the same time, are deeply saddened by the devastation and loss. To help with the relief efforts on the ground, we have made a donation to the Maui Food Bank, our local teams are donating essential supplies. Now to our business update and second quarter results.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

I am extremely pleased with our second quarter performance as sales, profitability, and earnings per share were all well above our plans. I wanna highlight that customer traffic drove our 6% overall comp sales increase, it increased at all of our divisions. As a reminder, for us, customer traffic represents the number of customer transactions. I am particularly pleased with the performance of our largest division, Marmaxx, which delivered high single-digit increases in both comp sales and customer traffic. Our overall apparel and accessory sales were very strong, our overall home sales significantly improved and returned to positive comp sales growth. Clearly, our terrific mix of branded, fashionable merchandise and great values resonated with shoppers when they visited our stores. In terms of profitability, both pre-tax profit margin and earnings per share increased significantly versus last year. Importantly, merchandise margin continues to be very healthy.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

With our above-plan sales and profitability performance in the second quarter, we are raising our full-year outlook for comp sales, pre-tax profit margin, and earnings per share. John will talk to this in a moment. We are very pleased with the continued momentum of our business and the excellent execution of our teams across the company. They have been laser-focused on driving sales and traffic and improving profitability. The third quarter is off to a very strong start, and we feel great about our plans for the remainder of the year. The marketplace is loaded with outstanding buying opportunities, and we are confident that we will continue to offer a terrific mix of brands and an outstanding assortment of gifts to our shoppers during the fall and holiday selling seasons.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

We are convinced that our differentiated treasure hunt shopping experience and excellent values will continue to serve us well and allow us to capture additional market share across our geographies for many years to come. Before I continue, I'll turn the call over to John to cover our second quarter financial results in more detail.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Thanks, Ernie. Good morning, everyone. I also want to add my gratitude to all of our global associates for their continued hard work. I'll start with some additional details on the second quarter. As Ernie mentioned, our overall comp store sales increased 6%, well above the high end of our plan, and were entirely driven by an increase in customer traffic. We were very pleased to see that both comp store sales growth and customer traffic improved sequentially each month of the quarter.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

As we expected, average ticket was down due to merchandise mix. The impact of the lower ticket on sales was largely offset by an increase in units, with shoppers putting more items into their cart. This is in line with what we have seen in our business historically. Our overall apparel business, including accessories, continued its momentum with high single-digit comp increase. Overall, home comp sales were up mid-single digits. TJX net sales grew to $12.8 billion, an 8% increase versus the second quarter of fiscal 2023. Second quarter consolidated pre-tax margin of 10.4% was up 120 basis points versus last year. This was well above our plan due to a bigger benefit than we expected from lower freight costs, as well as expense leverage on our above-plan sales. Gross margin was up 260 basis points.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

This increase was driven by a higher merchandise margin due to the significant benefit from lower freight costs. This year-over-year freight benefit was primarily driven by lower rates, as well as a benefit from our freight initiatives and the remainder of our year, in the remainder of our year-end accrual adjustment. Gross margin also benefited from our inventory and fuel hedges and expense leverage on a 6% comp increase. Our year-over-year shrink accrual and supply chain investments were headwinds to gross margin in the second quarter. Second quarter SG&A increased 170 basis points due to a combination of factors. These include higher incentive accruals due to above-plan results, a reserve related to a German government COVID program receivable, incremental store wage and payroll costs, and a contribution to the TJX Foundation.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Net interest income benefited pre-tax profit margin by 40 basis points versus last year. Lastly, we were very pleased that earnings per share of $0.85 were up 23% versus last year and also well above our expectations. Now moving to our second quarter divisional performance. At Marmaxx, second quarter comp store sales increased an outstanding 8%, entirely driven by customer traffic. Marmaxx's apparel and home categories both saw high single-digit comp increases. Further, it was great to see comp sales and traffic increases accelerate every month throughout the quarter. Comp sales were very strong across each of Marmaxx's region. We also saw consistent performance across low, mid, and high-income store demographics.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Marmaxx's second quarter segment profit margin was 13.7%, up 80 basis points versus last year, primarily driven by a benefit from lower freight costs, as well as expense leverage on the strong sales and strong markon. We continue to be pleased with momentum-- with the momentum at Marmaxx and are excited about the initiatives we have planned to help us drive sales and traffic for the remainder of the year and beyond. At HomeGoods, we were very pleased to see second quarter comp store sales increase 4% and a significant increase in customer traffic. HomeGoods comp sales and traffic increases also accelerated every month throughout the quarter. I also want to note that our full year plans assume that HomeGoods will continue to comp positively for the second half of the year.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

HomeGoods' second quarter segment profit margin was 8.7%, up 600 basis points, and entirely due to a benefit from lower freight costs. We remain confident in the long-term opportunities we see to grow both our HomeGoods and HomeSense banners and capture additional share of the U.S. home market. At Canada, comp store sales were up 1%, and customer traffic increased. Segment profit margin was 15.7%. As the only major brick-and-mortar off-price retailer in Canada, we have a very loyal shopper, shopper base and many value-conscious shop customers. We are confident that we are set up well to continue growing our footprint across Canada and attract more customers to our banners. At TJX International, comp store sales increased 3%, and customer traffic was also up.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

It was great to see comp sales and traffic increases at both our European and Australian businesses. During the quarter, we also launched online shopping in Germany and Austria. Segment profit margin for TJX International on a constant currency basis was 2.1%, which was negatively impacted by over 300 basis points due to the reserve related to the German receivable I spoke to earlier. We are very happy with our overall performance in this division and are confident we can continue to grow our banners in our existing countries and improve profitability. As to e-commerce, overall, it remains a very small percentage of our business. We continue to add new merchandise to our sites so that shoppers can see something new every time they visit. Moving to inventory. Balance sheet inventory was down 7% versus the second quarter of fiscal 2023.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Similar to the first quarter, the year-over-year decline was primarily due to the elevated levels we saw last year from the early arrival of merchandise and a larger in-transit balance as a result of supply chain delays at that time. We feel great about inventory levels and the outstanding buying environment. As Ernie said, the marketplace is loaded with merchandise, and we are well positioned to flow fresh assortments to our stores and online this fall and holiday season. I'll finish with our liquidity and shareholder distributions. For the second quarter, we generated $1.3 billion in operating cash flow and ended the quarter with $4.6 billion in cash. In the second quarter, we paid down $500 million of maturing debt and returned $932 million to shareholders through our buyback and dividend programs. I'll turn it back to Ernie.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Thanks, John. I'll start by highlighting the key strengths that have allowed TJX to grow successfully through many kinds of retail and economic cycles for nearly five decades. I am convinced that these core strengths set us apart from many other retailers and will continue to be a tremendous advantage going forward. First is our value leadership. Our goal has always been to offer great value on every item, every day, to every customer. At TJX, value is more than just offering consumers a great price. For us, value also means delivering desirable brands, fashionable merchandise, fashionable merchandise, and great quality to our shoppers. We believe our value proposition is one of the best in all of retail and will continue to attract consumers to our retail banners all around the world. Second, we have developed one of the most flexible brick-and-mortar retail models in the world.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

The flexibility of our close-to-need, opportunistic buying allows our merchants to quickly react to the hottest trends in the marketplace and adapt to changing consumer preferences. The flexibility of our supply chain and store formats allows us to ship to our stores multiple times a week, merchandise stores individually, and flex our floor space to support our ever-changing assortment. Third, we successfully operate stores across a wide customer demographic. We want to sell to everyone, and we aim to appeal to all value-conscious shoppers and inspire and excite them every time they visit us. The flexibility of our business allows us to curate an assortment of good, better, and best merchandise across our stores and to appeal to shoppers across all income demographic areas. Next, we have built an expansive vendor universe over many decades and believe we have some of the best relationships in all of retail.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

This vast network of changing vendors, which numbered approximately 21,000 over the last year, is the reason why we are so confident that there will always be more than enough inventory in the marketplace for us to buy. Our best-in-class buying organization of 1,200-plus merchants does a terrific job selecting the right mix of categories and brands for the right stores to create our fun, treasure hunt shopping experience. We also see the globalness of our business as a tremendous strength. We have built a highly integrated global infrastructure, supply chain, and buying organization that we believe would be difficult to replicate. This allows us to leverage our global presence to create a differentiated treasure hunt shopping experience in each country we operate in. Last, but certainly not least, is our talent. Teaching and talent development have always been priorities at TJX.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Throughout our organization and management teams, we have deep, decades-long off-price experience in the U.S. and internationally. I believe that our global talent base will continue to be a tremendous advantage as we continue our growth around the world. I truly believe that the combination of these key strengths and the execution of them is why we are one of the strongest companies in all of retail and have a very long history of successful performance. Now, I'll briefly highlight the opportunities we see to keep driving sales and traffic in the second half of the year. First, as I said earlier, we are seeing phenomenal product availability across all categories and a wide range of brands. This gives us great confidence that we can bring consumers the right assortment at the right values throughout the fall and holiday season.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Second, we feel great about our store merchandising initiatives that we have planned. We are particularly excited about our gifting initiatives as we continue to focus on being a destination for gifts throughout the year. With our rapidly changing assortment, we believe shoppers will be inspired to visit us frequently to see what's new. Third, we have very strong marketing campaigns planned. Each of our brands will continue to reinforce our value leadership position through a combination of channels, including digital, television, and social media. We believe our compelling campaigns will capture the attention of new consumers while keeping us top of mind with our existing customers. Moving to profitability. We are extremely pleased that the high end of our adjusted pre-tax profit margin plan for fiscal 2024 now exceeds our previously announced target of 10.6% for fiscal 2025.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

This is a testament to the hard work and commitment of the entire organization. I want to assure you that we will not be complacent and will strive to continue improving our profitability over the long term. Before I close, I'd also like to reinforce our deep commitment to acting as a responsible corporate citizen, and I am proud of the work our teams across the globe continue to do. We expect to publish our annual Global Corporate Responsibility Report this fall, and I hope you'll take some time to look at our website to learn more about what we are doing. Summing up, we're very pleased with the momentum we are seeing across the business and the very strong start to the third quarter.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

We've had excellent performance in the first half of the year, and our teams have put us in a great position for continued success for the remainder of the year. I'm convinced that the characteristics of our flexible off-price business model and the operating expertise within our organization are unmatched. I am so proud of our culture, which I believe is a major differentiator and a key component of our success. I am extremely confident about the future of TJX, and I'm excited about the opportunities we see to capture additional market share and improve profitability in the long term. Now, I'll turn the call back to John to cover our full year and third quarter guidance, and then we'll open it up for questions.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Thanks again, Ernie. Before I start, I want to remind you that fiscal 2024 calendar includes a 53rd week. As we stated in our press release this morning, we have offered eligible former TJX associates who have not yet commenced their pension benefit, an opportunity to receive a lump sum payout of their vested pension benefit. We anticipate that the impact of this pension payout offer, primarily a non-cash settlement charge, could negatively impact fiscal 2024 EPS by approximately $0.01-$0.02, but could be higher or lower, depending on participation rates and other factors. To be clear, any of the guidance we are providing today does not include the potential impact of this pension payout offer. We expect to exclude the impact of this potential settlement charge from our adjusted pre-tax profit margin and EPS results in the third quarter. To our full year guidance.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

We are now planning an overall comp store sales increase of 3%-4%. As a reminder, our comp guidance excludes our expected sales from the 53rd week. For the full year, we now expect consolidated sales to be in the range of $53.5 billion-$53.8 billion. This guidance includes approximately $800 million of additional revenue expected from the 53rd week. As Ernie said, we're increasing our full year profitability guidance. We're now planning full year pre-tax profit margin to be in the range of 10.7%-10.8%. Excluding an expected benefit of approximately 10 basis points from the 53rd, we now expect adjusted pre-tax profit margin to be in the range of 10.6%-10.7%.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

On a 52-week basis, this would represent an increase of 90-100 basis points versus fiscal 2023's adjusted pre-tax profit margin of 9.7%. Regarding shrink, we continue to be laser focused on our in-store initiatives while making sure we maintain an enjoyable shopping experience for our customers. At this time, our shrink indicators are leading us to believe that we can continue to plan shrink flat in fiscal 2024. As a reminder, we will not know the full effect of our shrink initiatives or the accuracy of our indicators until we do a full annual inventory count at the end of the year. Moving on, we're planning full year adjusted gross margin on a 52-week basis in the range of 29.4%-29.5%, a 180-190 basis point increase versus last year.

Deb McConnell
Deb McConnell
SVP of Global Communications at The TJX Companies

We expect virtually all of this increase to be driven by a benefit from lower freight costs. We are also planning a benefit from merchandise margin. This guidance also assumes a continuation of headwinds from our supply chain investments in incremental distribution center wages. We are very pleased with the level of freight recapture we are seeing, given the significant pressure we saw over the prior three years. Our expected freight benefit this year includes a pull forward of most of the benefit we were expecting in fiscal 2025. We remain laser focused and looking, looking at ways to reduce our freight costs. Moving on, we're expecting full year SG&A on a 52-week basis to be approximately 19.1%, a 120 basis point increase versus last year. This expected increase is primarily driven by incremental store wage and payroll costs and higher incentive accruals.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

For modeling purposes, we're currently assuming a full year tax rate of 26%, net interest income on a 52-week basis of about $157 million, and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.16 billion shares. As a result of these assumptions, we're increasing our full year earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.66-$3.72. Excluding an expected benefit of approximately $0.10 from the 53rd week, we expect adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.56-$3.62. On a 52-week basis, this would represent an increase of 10% to-- excuse me, 14%-16% versus fiscal 2023's adjusted earnings per share of $3.11.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Lastly, we now expect to open about 125 net new stores in fiscal 2024, an increase of approximately 3%. This reflects a shift of some of our planned fall openings into next year. Moving to the third quarter, we're planning overall comp store sales growth to be up 3%-4%. Similar to the second quarter, we expect the comp increase to be driven by customer traffic. We're planning for average ticket to be down less than it was, less than it was in the second quarter, again, due to merchandise mix. We're also expecting an increase in units sold. We expect third quarter consolidated sales to be in the range of $12.9 billion-$13.1 billion, a 6%-7% increase over the prior year.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

We're planning third quarter pre-tax profit margin to be in the range of 11.3%-11.5%. We're expecting third quarter gross margin in the range of 30.3%-30.5%, up 120-140 basis points versus last year. We're planning a significant benefit from lower freight costs, partially offset by headwinds from supply chain investments, inventory cap, and our year-over-year shrink accrual. We're planning third quarter SG&A of approximately 19.3%, up 130 basis points versus last year. This expected increase is driven by incremental store wage and payroll costs and higher incentive accruals.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

For modeling purposes, we're currently assuming a third quarter tax rate of 25.3%, net interest income of about $40 million, and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.15 billion shares. We expect third quarter earnings per share to be in the range of $0.95-$0.98, up 10%-14% versus last year's adjusted $0.86. For the fourth quarter, on a 13-week basis, we're planning comp store sales to be up 3%-4%, adjusted pre-tax margin in the range of 10.3%-10.5%, and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.00-$1.03. We will provide more detailed guidance for the fourth quarter on our third quarter earnings call.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Before I close, I want to echo Ernie's comments that we continue to see opportunities to further improve profitability over the long term. As always, the best way for us to drive profitability is with outsized sales. We continue to see opportunities to grow sales and traffic and capture additional market share. Further, we remain laser focused on being even better on buying and retailing the goods and driving merchandise margin. At the same time, we expect to continue to face headwinds from incremental wage costs and supply chain investments. As usual, we'll give you a detailed annual guidance beyond this year on our February on our call in February. In closing, I want to reiterate that we are very pleased with our with the, with the execution of our teams across the company and are confident in our sales and profitability plans.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Further, we have a strong balance sheet and are in an excellent financial position to simultaneously invest in the growth of our business and return significant cash to our shareholders. Now we are happy to take your questions. As we do every quarter, we're gonna ask that you please limit your questions to one per person, so we can keep the call on schedule and answer as many questions as we can. Thanks. Now we'll open it up for questions.

Moderator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one, unmute your phone, and record your name clearly. If you need to withdraw your question, press star two. Again, to ask a question, please press star one. Our first question will come from Matthew Boss. Your line is open.

Matthew Boss
Matthew Boss
Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan

Great, good morning, and congrats on a really nice quarter.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Thanks, Matt.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Thank you.

Matthew Boss
Matthew Boss
Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan

Ernie, you cited the third quarter off to a very strong start and tremendous off-price buying opportunities. Could you just elaborate on how traffic and demand progressed over the course of the second quarter, maybe what you've seen in August across both apparel and home? John, could you just elaborate on the improved bottom-line full-year outlook as we think about AUR and freight relative to shrink and wages?

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Sure. Yeah, Matt, good question. Obviously, looking at as the indicator I gave when I said very strong for the Q3 start, which is, you know, coming out of Q2, where each month got a little stronger. We were sequentially stronger throughout Q2, as the, as the quarter went on, and that momentum has now continued into Q3. I think you were asking about, you know, any differentiator between apparel or home. I would tell you well, when you have comps like this, and you have Marmaxx running such a high comp as they did, as you can imagine, we are experiencing health across just about every category in the store. In fact, the apparel across the board has been very healthy, as has the home area.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

I'm talking within Marmaxx, you know, because you've seen that HomeGoods from remember, Q1 in HomeGoods, we were down seven, and now we were up four in HomeGoods for Q2, which is really a terrific-- you know, we had, we had, signaled to all of you that we thought there'd be incremental improvement. Clearly, it was even exceeded our expectations, and we are feeling very good about that business also as we go into Q3. I hope that answered your question.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Matt, just to answer the question you had for me, I mean, as far as the, you know, the, the back half and full year guidance, you know, we, we continue to see freight opportunity in our initiatives, obviously, increasing our, you know, the confidence we have to increase our top line sales, gives us, you know, the confidence to increase our back half guidance. You know, as far as AUR, you know, look, you know, as far as pricing and merchandise margin, they were in line with our expectations. The buying environment is fantastic, as Ernie said. We, we continue to see opportunities to take price in certain areas and merchandise margin improvement.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

You know, we're really pleased at how our strategies this quarter drove our top line, and again, gave us the confidence to increase our full year comp.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Yeah, Matt, great. Don was touching on it in your, in your question. As we talked, remember, there was a little bit confusion last call, and we talked about how our, our, our ticket might be down slightly, and pretty much it was on our expectations.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Right in line.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Right in line. As a result, we drove our, our top line, as we had explained in some of our meetings about you can't judge the average ticket and its sales relationship because some of the categories that we were growing in the mix of departments create multiple purchases. You know, we're pleased to see it. It all really went along the lines of what we had, discussed back at the end of Q1.

Matthew Boss
Matthew Boss
Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan

Great color. Congrats again on the momentum.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Thank you.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Thanks, Matt.

Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Lorraine Hutchinson. You may proceed.

Lorraine Hutchinson
Lorraine Hutchinson
Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to confirm what I, I think you just said, which was the like-for-like price increases are working, and the ticket decline was just mix. My question is, if you think you're seeing any signs of a trade-down customer coming into any of your banners?

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Lorraine, got it. Yes, the like-for-like pricing continues to work. We continue to see opportunity there as we move forward. Again, we do that, as we said from the very beginning, we do that very selectively in certain areas, in certain categories, in certain items, as witnessed by our performance. As well as we have another data point, which we measure qualitatively, where we measure customer perception of our values. First of all, we can tell from our turns as well as our sales, but we have another perception point, where consumers right now are actually seeing our value perception versus a year ago, has actually ticked up a couple notches. We're viewed against ourselves as value perception has improved, which tells you it's working.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Then the second thing, ironically, is against the category average, we have improved. Those are good barometers. We can see it in the metrics, though, Lorraine, when, when you look at our turns and our sales. Where, again, as we've also said, is where we have ever found an item where it didn't work, we adjust, and then we, you know, we bring that item back to where we think it, if it needs to work. Our hit rate has been, you know, 90%+. The second part of your question, Lorraine, was on, on the.

Lorraine Hutchinson
Lorraine Hutchinson
Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Bank of America

Any signs of a trade-down consumer?

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Trade-down, which, you know, hard for us to measure trade down. What I think we would say is store closures, and as well as, I would say, because in some cases it's not a trade down or it's a trade over based on the category. Hard for us to measure trade down. What we can feel is capturing market share from other retailers that have closed or downsized in some of their store counts. I am sure we are getting increased market share because we can see it in some of the categories that we carry.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Yeah, I mean, there's been a lot of volatility, you know, in the retail environment for a while. We, we think, you know, we've got strong execution. We, we feel that we continue to, you know, to gain that market share.

Lorraine Hutchinson
Lorraine Hutchinson
Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Thank you.

Moderator

Next, you will hear from Brooke Roach. Your line is open.

Brooke Roach
Brooke Roach
VP and Senior Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Thank you. Thank you. Good afternoon, thank you for taking our question. With greater visibility to your previous long-term 10.6% FY 2025 margin target, can you help contextualize the key drivers of future profit improvement? How are you thinking about the rate and pace of that potential improvement beyond some of these freight recapture opportunities that you've seen this year? Thank you.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Yeah, Brooke, we're not giving guidance long term right now, but I can say that, you know, as always, you know, we strive to improve, you know, all the time, whether it's, you know, how, you know, better buying or, you know, expense control, we continue to strive to do better.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Great. Thank you so much. Brooke, I would just also jump in. What John said earlier in his notes is that sales have been a driver in helping us to also leverage. As we are capturing these sales, we do believe because we've tried to make our store environment sticky for the customer in terms of he or she really having a great experience there, as well as the merchandise. These are the two primary components of what gets well, what captures new customers and gets customers back. We believe, you know, momentum doesn't just turn off overnight.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

I think part, part of what we're all feeling internally here is, as we've captured new and increased additional visits amidst the market share gain we're getting, that that will be a, also a margin driver for us as we move forward. Thank you. Thank you.

Moderator

Our next question will come from Mark Altschwager. Your line is open.

Mark Altschwager
Mark Altschwager
Senior Research Analyst at Baird

Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just first for John, with respect to the margin guide, if, if we look at the, the high end of the guide for Q3 and Q4, it does seem to imply a nice acceleration in Q4. Now, I know you've got the benefit from the extra week, you're, you're cycling the, the shrink accrual, so those, those are some big factors. I guess beyond that, maybe what are some of the other factors that we should be mindful of there?

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Yeah. As you as you saw, we did increase the comp. We feel confident about, you know, continuing to drive that top line. The other thing that is benefiting us, so in this, in the second quarter and third quarter, we comment on, on the shrink. We have, just in, in, in line with how we accrue, there's an unfavorable impact in the first, second, and third quarter, and then we have a favorable impact in the fourth quarter. That, along with, you know, we continue to, you know, work on our freight initiatives and continue to try to control those costs as much as we can.

Mark Altschwager
Mark Altschwager
Senior Research Analyst at Baird

Thank you. Maybe a follow-up for Ernie. You know, this is the first quarter in a while where both Marmaxx and HomeGoods are contributing to the positive comps. I know there's some noise still with the comparisons in HomeGoods in the back half, but just bigger picture, how should we be thinking about the contribution from HomeGoods versus Marmaxx and a normalized comp algorithm moving forward? Thank you.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Yeah. Mark, obviously, we won't give the, you know, the exact comp we're thinking further out. However, we do feel we are really hitting pretty much an inflection point in the HomeGoods business, and we're pretty bullish on the back half here that home will continue to improve on the trend versus the versus the trend that you just saw. We're feeling good about the opportunity to continue to improve in our home mix. To your point, we'll continue to contribute to the TJX comp with a combination of with HomeGoods and Marmaxx.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Also, just again, we tend to talk about HomeGoods specifically, but our home business within our full family stores, so that's whether in Europe or in Canada, and then clearly in TJ Maxx and Marshalls, our home business there has also, in those business, has also improved. A good indicator because we used to talk a few years ago about the fact that home, when you roll it all up, is a key component of the TJX business. Again, another reason why, you know, John and I have talked about as we move forward, that home will continue to be a traffic and a sales driver for us over the long term.

Mark Altschwager
Mark Altschwager
Senior Research Analyst at Baird

Great. Thank you, and best of luck.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Thank you.

Moderator

Our next question will come from Marni Shapiro. Your line is open.

Marni Shapiro
Managing Partner at The Retail Tracker

Hey, guys. Congratulations on a great quarter. If you could just talk a little bit, you know, traffic remains your biggest driver, and your marketing has been very, very strong. Could you talk a little bit about, has it changed the frequency of how often the shopper is coming to your stores? Are you seeing an increase in your shopper shopping across your different, your different boxes? I, I know you continue to co-locate, but I'm curious if you're seeing that shopper really move from, you know, one concept to the next more than usual.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Yeah, it's, it's hard for us to read that in detail. Just generally looking at the, the transaction increases that we have, you know, we believe that we are attracting more new customers to our brands. When you look at how we're attracting those customers, they tend to be, more younger customers, the more Gen Z customers that we're attracting, which we're really excited about, because that speaks to, you know, the longevity, that, that we see.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Yeah, Marni, the, the thing I can tell you, even though we can't get some of that info, they are, are, the ones that are cross-shopping do spend more.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Yeah.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

It is a goal of ours to go after that. As John said, we have been attracting a disproportionate number of new Gen Z and millennial shoppers, which is what we really look at in terms of future growth, because that's, you know, the future higher spend. When we look out on our strategies for five to seven years, and by the way, we purposely go after that. We do compare what we do get at, we can compare our shoppers against some of the competition. There's some general data on that, that we look at, and we've been feeling really good about all gender and age groups to our stores and all the customers that are skewing younger, and what that includes in Europe, Australia, domestically.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Yeah. Yeah.

Marni Shapiro
Managing Partner at The Retail Tracker

Then just a quick follow-up.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Sorry about that.

Marni Shapiro
Managing Partner at The Retail Tracker

John must be watching Bama Rush on TikTok because you guys are all over it, and they all shop there, those Gen Z-ers. Could you just clarify the 53rd week revenue number? I think you said it pretty quickly. I wanna make sure I got it down right.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Yeah. The 53rd week is worth 10 basis points to our pre-tax profit and $0.10 to our earnings per share, and it's about $800 million on the top line.

Marni Shapiro
Managing Partner at The Retail Tracker

Great. Thanks so much, guys.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Thank you, Marnie.

Moderator

Our next question will come from Alex Straton. Your line is open.

Alex Straton
Alex Straton
Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks for taking the question, and congrats on another great quarter, Ernie and John. I think just starting with the guidance from a, like, zooming out here, it looks like you're improving the full year by, by more than what you guys just beat by. It seems like you're, you're more optimistic on the back half than maybe you were when we spoke a few months ago. Can you just talk about what, what the key drivers are there to that increased optimism? Thanks a lot.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

We're increasing, we, we, we beat Q2 by $0.10, and we're beating-- we're increasing the back half, by $0.04, and that's on increasing the comp from 2%-3% to 3%-4%, you know, given the, the, the strength we see in our sales. Then as far as our freight initiatives, we feel, you know, we-- the, the opportunities that we took in Q2, we're, we're assuming that we continue in the back half of the year. Again, you know, we're pulling forward a lot of what we, we, we would have expected in FY 2025, we're really happy to be, you know, gaining that, that benefit this year.

Alex Straton
Alex Straton
Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Thanks a lot.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Thank you.

Moderator

Our next question comes from Robert Drbul. Your line is open.

Robert Drbul
Robert Drbul
Senior Consumer Retail Analyst at Guggenheim Securities

Hi, good morning. Just a couple questions. On apparel and accessories, in terms of what you're seeing and sort of what the consumer is responding to, is there a big change in sort of the good, better, best mix that is sort of helping you throughout, you know, this quarter and the rest of the year?

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Great question, Bob. Not really a big change. Again, there has been an amazing, what do I use in the script? Phenomenal.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Yeah.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Phenomenal availability across, across, really all the areas. I would tell you, there are pockets, sometimes in categories where we don't get good, better, best as proportional as we'd like, but that's our business. We always know that we're not going to be exact because we're opportunistic in our buying. Our buyers are great on, in terms of strategically and knowing that they want their mix to be a certain balance, depending on what the, on the category, by the way. For example, our buyer in handbags doesn't necessarily want the same ratio of good, better, best, determined by brands, et cetera, as the buyer in women's tops, okay? That, that varies, but we have been pretty healthy, I would say, other than in certain pockets of certain areas and accessories.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

It's been a little bit more of an up and down and an imbalance. We always look at that as opportunity for the following year, because when we have those pockets, as you can see, we just ran a six comp, and we still have those pockets of opportunity where we don't have the mix balanced exactly the way we want it to be. And even in some apparel areas, we ran into that in second quarter, that they weren't as strong as they could be if the mix was more balanced and good, better, best, the way that we'd want it to be. It, it's funny, your question brings-- we could spend a couple of hours on it because we and the merchants, we love to talk about how we go about doing that.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

We also know that certain quarters, we look better than other quarters. As, as you can see in the total picture, we look really strong, and the merchants have done across a vast array, and you could never find a quarter where there isn't one area that doesn't have a little imbalance. For the most part, really strong balance of good, better, best. Nothing's really changed strategically on that front, and just a great question you asked.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

By the way, I'll just add to what Ernie said. You know, our ability to offer good, better, and best, I mean, really differentiates us from our competition, and we feel it's a real competitive advantage.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

That's a great point. You know, I didn't get to get into that as much on the script, and I know sometimes in our different investor meetings, we get to talk more about it. It is, I think, one of the most key strategic advantages we have, A, the fact that, that our organization is set up to deliver a good, better, best scenario. If you look, most retailers around us, very few do that. They're not, they're zeroing in on certain demographic segments or certain, you know, which could include age or fashion looks or different price levels. We don't do that, and I think that will continue to be a benefit to us over the next five to 10 years. Huge.

Robert Drbul
Robert Drbul
Senior Consumer Retail Analyst at Guggenheim Securities

Thank you.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Thank you.

Moderator

Next, we will hear from Dana Telsey. You may proceed.

Dana Telsey
Dana Telsey
Retail Analyst, Founder, CEO, and Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group

Hi, good morning, everyone, and congratulations on the terrific results.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Good morning.

Dana Telsey
Dana Telsey
Retail Analyst, Founder, CEO, and Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group

As you think about the real estate-- as you think about the real estate profile of the store, have you been a beneficiary of any of the Bed Bath & Beyond locations? Is there at all a difference in performance of the stores, suburban or urban? Lastly, with the improving trend in HomeGoods, how much of that, or is anything you can glean from the elimination or the departure of Bed Bath & Beyond, that's also an additive and a share enhancement for your home results? Thank you.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Yeah, Dana, thanks for the question. You know, as far as the real estate opportunity, you know, we've been on this, as, you know, from the beginning of when retailers start to close stores, and we take the best locations that fit our profile, and we'll continue to do that as we see, you know, stores close. As far as, you know, the sales, and what we've seen, particularly for Marmaxx, you know, we saw very consistent sales performance across income demographic, across geography. You know, we, you know, we see ourselves, you know, especially in some of these markets that are more rural, as the, you know, you see more and more closures as the, you know, the, the department store of those areas, and see opportunity.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

As far as the, the Bed Bath & Beyond, gaining market share, you know, they've, they've been losing market share for quite a while, and we think we've gained it along the way. It's sometimes a little bit hard to read that, but we feel that, you know, our execution in home has been, you know, outstanding. You know, and we've been able to take that market share as, as, as, you know, as it comes up.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Yeah. Dana, we think, to John's point, tough to measure, but we feel as though, yeah, we are getting, you know, from a Bed Bath & Beyond or, but not just those guys. Even some of the... I believe we're getting, some business from the online home retailers, as well, that, you know, have been a little inconsistent in their execution. I think that just creates other opportunities. Then everyone, you know, at, that's at the store end for demand, we're talking. The other great, not great, the other good thing, is it creates additional supply of buying opportunities. You know, we've been talking today about, you know, at the retail level, you know, customers need another place to shop.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

For our merchants, they get to take advantage of additional supplies, and we mean even more now to certain vendors because now they have less places for them to sell their goods. That's been equally, I guess, beneficial.

Dana Telsey
Dana Telsey
Retail Analyst, Founder, CEO, and Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group

Thank you. Congratulations.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Thank you.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Thanks.

Moderator

Our next question comes from Corey Tarlowe. Your line is open.

Corey Tarlowe
Corey Tarlowe
SVP and Lead Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Hi, good morning, thanks for taking my question. I had a follow-up on the AUR commentary or ticket. I know that it, it moderated a little bit this quarter. Is the expectation in the guide that it should moderate throughout the rest of the year, or perhaps inflect positively as we head into the fourth quarter? Then, just as a follow-up on, on wages, how are you thinking about wages, John, in the outlook throughout the remainder of this year?

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

You want me. I'll start with actually wages.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Yeah, I'll start with wages. Yep.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

You know, wages, you know, we continue to see that as a headwind in our wages. We, you know, we're, we're gonna be competitive in our wages, you know, in every market that we're in. When we look at, you know, our attrition rates, our attrition rates are in line or improving with where they were last year. We feel really good at, you know, where our wage is right now and our ability to attract, attract associates to our, to our company.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

On, on the, on the ticket, Corey. Yeah, in Q2, we actually didn't moderate. It kind of came in a pretty much where we expected. It's as we move to the back half, the ticket we think is going to moderate, which is to be down a little less than we were in Q2. However, I always like to qualify this, that we do not, and again, I've talked this way for years, we do not top-down drive our average ticket. The average ticket, which is really ultimately voted on by the customers who determine which categories we need to drive hard in the store by, you know, supplying the we can tell by the way they're selling and by the way the market looks, so that we'll go after them.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

It's driven by down at the buyer and merchandise manager level, which is where we really generate. We don't dictate to those teams, which categories to have more or less of. That's really driven by consumer demand, which then drives our ticket sometimes because of the mix of departments. Right now, we look like we're moderating based on the on-order, but if certain opportunities or certain categories get hotter, that could be lower or higher ticket, that could move a little on us. Obviously, Q3, we can project a little better than Q4. It's always a, it's always a bit of a touchy one, where we don't want to overcommit to how firm we are on where the AUR is heading, because, because it's so bottom up by customer demand and buyer driven. Does that make sense?

Corey Tarlowe
Corey Tarlowe
SVP and Lead Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Yes, that's very helpful. Yeah. Thank you very much.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Yeah. We, right, you know, right now, it looks like it is moderating for certainly Q3.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

What we mean by moderating is mean down-

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Down less.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

And you can see the, the impact on our top line on the strategy that we've had. I mean, the, you know, we're offering the customers, you know, what they want, and they're coming back.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Yep.

Corey Tarlowe
Corey Tarlowe
SVP and Lead Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Great. Thank you so much. Thank you.

Moderator

Our final question of the day comes from Adrienne Yih. Your line is open.

Adrienne Yih
Adrienne Yih
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

Great. Thank you very much. It's great to see the acceleration in, all divisions, actually. So Ernie-

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Thank you.

Adrienne Yih
Adrienne Yih
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

You're welcome. Obviously, my question is probably gonna be on inventory. I actually want to ask, not so much about the composition of it, but the buying strategy, you know, off-price buys a little bit upfront. You've got great visibility on the open-to-buy, forward-looking, and then you do a lot of buying, sort of intra season. Just can you contextualize sort of how that is so different from last year and the advantageous position that it's putting you in as you head into holiday? Thank you very much.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Sure, Adrienne. I like the way you framed it all up. We do not obviously, we won't give the percentages by those types of buying patterns, the way we buy by each one. However, we do buy all those different ways. Right now, we are, our mission, as always, is to pace ourselves on the buying of the in-season closeouts, because the market is so loaded. As we move forward, right now, what we're thinking, Adrienne, is we will pull back even a little bit more on any of the buys that we tend to buy earlier or upfront, because all indicators are there will be a continued additional supply, at least over the next six to 12 months, of what you were just referring to as the in-season closeout type of situation.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

The, you know, pack-aways is kind of has become a smaller percent of our business, only because, in many cases, the fashion there, if it isn't right, we don't tend to pack it away. The pattern of, of what we're seeing right now would tell us we're gonna be even a little bit, and now I'm talking massaging these by just a couple of points. We don't do pendulum swings, on our open-to-buy or how much we do upfront versus, leave for closeouts. Again, the closeouts and the opportunistic side of our business, that's the bulk of our business, and that's what we prioritize. We see that, I would think, kicking up a notch over the next six to 12 months. I hope that answers your question.

Adrienne Yih
Adrienne Yih
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

It definitely did. Thank you very much, and fantastic, you know, momentum.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Thank you, Adrienne.

John Klinger
EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies

Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. That was our final question of the day.

Ernie Herrman
Ernie Herrman
CEO and President at The TJX Companies

Okay, thank you. I would like to thank everybody for joining us today. We look forward to updating you all again on our third quarter earnings call in November. Take care, everybody.

Moderator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call for today. You may all disconnect. Thank you for participating.

Executives
    • Deb McConnell
      Deb McConnell
      SVP of Global Communications
    • Ernie Herrman
      Ernie Herrman
      CEO and President
Analysts
    • Adrienne Yih
      Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays
    • Alex Straton
      Executive Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley
    • Brooke Roach
      VP and Senior Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs
    • Corey Tarlowe
      SVP and Lead Equity Analyst at Jefferies
    • Dana Telsey
      Retail Analyst, Founder, CEO, and Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group
    • John Klinger
      EVP and CFO at The TJX Companies
    • Lorraine Hutchinson
      Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Bank of America
    • Mark Altschwager
      Senior Research Analyst at Baird
    • Marni Shapiro
      Managing Partner at The Retail Tracker
    • Matthew Boss
      Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan
    • Moderator
    • Robert Drbul
      Senior Consumer Retail Analyst at Guggenheim Securities
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