Transdigm Group Q3 2024 Earnings Report

Transdigm Group EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $9.00
• Consensus EPS: $7.77
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$1.23
• One Year Ago EPS: $6.55

Transdigm Group Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $2.05 billion
• Expected Revenue: $2.01 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$40.83 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +17.30%

Transdigm Group Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2024
• Date: 8/6/2024
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, August 6, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 11:00AM ET

Transdigm Group (NYSE:TDG) (NYSE: TDG) designs, produces and supplies aircraft components, systems and related aftermarket services. The company focuses primarily on proprietary aerospace products, including mechanical and electromechanical actuators, ignition systems, pumps, valves, sensors, cockpit and data-acquisition systems, power-conditioning equipment, lighting, lavatory components, seat belts and cargo-loading systems.

TransDigm serves commercial and regional airlines, business and general aviation operators, aircraft manufacturers and military customers. Its products are used on a broad range of commercial, business, general aviation and military aircraft, and the company supports customers through original equipment sales as well as replacement parts, repair and overhaul services.

Founded in 1993, TransDigm has grown through a combination of developing proprietary aerospace products and acquiring businesses with established product lines and aftermarket demand. The company is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, and serves customers and aircraft platforms in North America and international markets. Kevin M. Stein serves as president and chief executive officer, while W. Nicholas Howley is executive chairman.

Transdigm Group Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• We raised full-year 2024 guidance to $7.9 B in revenue (+20%), $4.13 B in EBITDA (+22%), and $33.02 in EPS (+28%) at the midpoint.
• Q3 results beat expectations with 14.6% organic revenue growth, a 53.3% EBITDA margin, $700 M free cash flow, and a $3.4 B cash balance.
• Closed three acquisitions—SEI Industries, CPI Electron Device Business, and Raptor Scientific—deploying $2.2 B and expected to add $125 M of revenue at ~30% margin.
• OEM production rates remain well below pre-pandemic levels and the 737 MAX ramp is slower than anticipated, creating near-term headwinds for OEM revenues.
• Defense segment revenue now expected to grow in the high teens with strong bookings, though defense sales remain lumpy and difficult to forecast quarter-to-quarter.

Presentation

[Operator]

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I will hand the call over to the Director of Investor Relations, Jaimie Stemen.

[Jaimie Stemen, Director of Investor Relations at TransDigm Group]

Thank you, and welcome to TransDigm's Fiscal 2024 third quarter earnings conference call. Presenting on the call this morning are TransDigm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Stein; Co-Chief Operating Officer, Joel Reiss; and Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Wynne. Also present for the call today is our Co-Chief Operating Officer, Mike Lisman. Please visit our website at transdigm.com to obtain a supplemental slide deck and call replay information. Before we begin, the company would like to remind you that statements made during this call, which are not historical in fact, are forward-looking statements. For further information about important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's latest filings with the SEC, available through the Investors section of our website or at sec.gov.

[Jaimie Stemen, Director of Investor Relations at TransDigm Group]

The company would also like to advise you that during the course of the call, we will be referring to EBITDA, specifically EBITDA As Defined, Adjusted Net Income, and Adjusted Earnings Per Share, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the tables and related footnotes in the earnings release for a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and applicable reconciliations. I will now turn the call over to Kevin.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Good morning. Thanks for calling in today. First, I'll start off with the usual quick overview of our strategy, a few comments about the quarter, and discuss our fiscal 2024 outlook. Then Joel and Sarah will give additional color on the quarter. To reiterate, we believe we are unique in the industry in both the consistency of our strategy in both good times and bad, as well as our steady focus on intrinsic shareholder value creation through all phases of the aerospace cycle. To summarize, here are some of the reasons why we believe this. About 90% of our net sales are generated by unique proprietary products. Most of our EBITDA comes from aftermarket revenues, which generally have significantly higher margins, and over any extended period, have typically provided relative stability in the downturns.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

We follow a consistent long-term strategy, specifically: first, we own and operate proprietary aerospace businesses with significant aftermarket content. Second, we utilize a simple, well-proven, value-based operating methodology. Third, we have a decentralized organizational structure and unique compensation system closely aligned with shareholders. Fourth, we acquire businesses that fit this strategy and where we see a clear path to PE-like returns. And lastly, our capital structure and allocations are a key part of our value creation methodology. Our long-standing goal is to give our shareholders private equity-like returns with the liquidity of a public market. To do this, we stay focused on both the details of value creation as well as careful allocation of our capital. As you saw from our earnings release, we had a strong quarter. Our Q3 results ran ahead, and we once more raised our guidance for the year.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Commercial aerospace market trends remain favorable as the industry continues to recover and progress towards normalization. Robust demand for travel persists, and global air traffic continues to surpass pre-pandemic levels. Airline demand for new aircraft also remains high, and the OEMs are working to increase aircraft production. However, OEM aircraft production rates remain well below pre-pandemic levels. There is still much progress to be made for OEM rates, and our results continue to be adversely affected in comparison to pre-pandemic production. In our business during the quarter, we saw a healthy growth in our revenues and bookings for all three of our major market channels: commercial OEM, commercial aftermarket, and defense. Revenues also sequentially improved in all three of these market channels. Our EBITDA as defined margin of 53.3% in the quarter.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Contributing to this strong Q3 margin is the continued strength in our commercial aftermarket, along with diligent focus on our operating strategy, which is allowing margin performance to expand across all segments. Additionally, we had strong operating cash flow generation in Q3 of over $600 million and ended the quarter with almost $3.4 billion of cash. We expect to continue generating additional cash in our final quarter of fiscal 2024.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Next, an update on our capital allocation activities and priorities. This has been a busy and exciting quarter for M&A. During the quarter, we completed the acquisitions of SEI Industries and the Electron Device Business of Communications and Power Industries. Subsequent to the quarter close on July 31, we closed the acquisition of Raptor Scientific. Further details of each individual acquisition can be found in the previously published press releases on TransDigm's website.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

In the aggregate, for these three acquisitions, we have deployed over $2.2 billion of capital in the past three months. The unique product and service offerings of each acquisition exhibit the earnings stability and growth potential that are consistent with our existing portfolio of businesses. These three acquisitions fit well with our long-standing strategy, and we expect each of these businesses to meet or exceed our long-term return objectives. We expect these three acquisitions in total to contribute about $125 million to our fiscal year 2024 revenue and a combined margin approaching 30%. Regarding the current M&A activities and pipeline, we continue to actively look for M&A opportunities that fit our model. As we look out over the time horizon, we continue to see an expanding pipeline of potential M&A targets.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

As we demonstrated this year, we do not see this environment slowing in the near term. As usual, the potential targets are mostly in the small and mid-size range. I cannot predict or comment on possible closings, but remain confident that there is a long runway for acquisitions that fit our portfolio. The capital allocation priorities at TransDigm are unchanged. Our first priority is to reinvest in our businesses. Second, do accretive, disciplined M&A, and third, return capital to our shareholders via share buybacks or dividends. A fourth option, paying down debt, seems unlikely at this time, though we do still take this into consideration. We are continually evaluating all of our capital allocation options, but both M&A and capital markets are difficult to predict. As always, we continue to closely monitor the capital markets and remain opportunistic.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

As mentioned earlier, we ended the quarter with a sizable cash balance of almost $3.4 billion. We have significant liquidity and financial flexibility to meet any likely range of capital requirements or other opportunities in the readily foreseeable future. Moving to our outlook for fiscal 2024. As noted in our earnings release, we are increasing our full year 2024 sales and EBITDA as defined guidance to reflect our strong third quarter results and our current expectations for the remainder of the year, as well as to include the recent acquisitions of SEI Industries, the CPI Electron Device Business, and Raptor Scientific. Please note that each of these acquisitions closed recently. Our preliminary expectation for each business will be refined as necessary over the coming months.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

At the midpoint, sales guidance was raised $160 million, and EBITDA, as defined guidance, was raised $85 million. The guidance assumes no additional acquisitions or divestitures and is based on current expectations for continued performance in our primary commercial end markets throughout the remainder of fiscal 2024. Our current guidance for fiscal 2024 is as follows, and can also be found on slide six in the presentation. The midpoint of our fiscal 2024 revenue guidance is now $7.9 billion, or up approximately 20%. In regards to the market channel growth rate assumptions that this revenue guidance is based on, for the defense market, we are updating the full year growth rate assumptions as a result of our strong third quarter results and current expectations for the remainder of the year.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

For defense, we now expect revenue growth in the high teens percentage range. This is an increase from our previous guidance of mid-teens percentage range. We are not updating the full year market channel growth rate assumptions for commercial OEM and commercial aftermarket, as underlying market fundamentals have not meaningfully changed. Commercial OEM and commercial aftermarket revenue guidance is still based on our previously issued market channel growth rate assumptions. We expect commercial OEM revenue growth of around 20% and commercial aftermarket revenue growth in the mid-teens % range. The midpoint of our EBITDA as defined guidance is now $4.13 billion, or up approximately 22%, with an expected margin of 52.3%. This guidance includes slightly under 125 basis points of margin dilution from recent acquisitions.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

The midpoint of our adjusted EPS is increasing primarily due to the higher EBITDA as defined guidance and is now anticipated to be $33.02, or up approximately 28% over prior year. Sarah will discuss in more detail shortly the factors impacting EPS, along with some other fiscal 2024 financial assumptions and updates. We believe we are well positioned for the last quarter of fiscal 2024. We continue to closely watch how the aerospace and capital markets continue to develop, and we will react accordingly. Let me conclude by stating that I'm very pleased with the company's performance this quarter and throughout the recovery for the commercial aerospace industry. We remain focused on our value drivers, cost structure, and operational excellence. Now let me hand it over to Joel Reiss, our TransDigm Group Co-COO, to review our recent performance and a few other items.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

Thanks, Kevin, and good morning. I'll start with our typical review of results by key market category. For the remainder of the call, I'll provide commentary on a pro forma basis compared to the prior year period in 2023. That is assuming we own the same mix of businesses in both periods. In the commercial market, which typically makes up close to 65% of our revenue, we will split our discussion into OEM and aftermarket. Our total commercial OEM revenue increased approximately 23% in Q3 compared with the prior year period. Sequentially, total commercial OEM revenues grew by about 7% compared to Q2. Bookings in the quarter were healthy compared to the same prior year period, and these booking levels continue to support the commercial OEM guidance for revenue growth of around 20% for fiscal 2024....

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

OEM supply chain and labor challenges persist, but appear to be improving. As many of you know, concerns have arisen over the past few months around the expected 737 MAX production rate ramp. Time will tell how this plays out. As we ship to both Boeing as well as their sub tiers, the impact across our businesses is somewhat varied. In general, we are seeing monthly build rates as low as 20 and as high as 42 for parts with extended lead times. Overall, we would estimate an average build rate at the end of Q3 of about 25 aircraft per month. The commercial OEM guidance we are giving today contains an appropriate level of risk around the MAX production build rate for the balance of our fiscal year.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

We do expect the OEM challenges will have an impact on how quickly they ramp up to their target rates. While we are not yet providing guidance for 2025, we do expect their production rate ramp up will be slower than we had previously expected. Now, moving on to our commercial aftermarket business discussion. Total commercial aftermarket revenue increased by approximately 11% compared with the prior year period. Sequentially, total commercial aftermarket revenues grew by about 5% compared to Q2. As a reminder, our commercial aftermarket is made up of four submarkets: passenger, interior, freight, and business jet. I would like to provide a bit more color than is historically typical on our commercial aftermarket submarkets. Growth in our passenger submarket, which is our largest, was up about 16% versus the prior year period. This submarket continues to perform exceptionally well.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

Year to date, as of our June quarter end, passenger submarket revenues were up 21% over the comparable prior year period. This compares favorably to the latest IATA passenger traffic data, which shows a year-over-year growth in June of 9.1%. For fiscal Q3, our interior submarket increased roughly 8% when compared to the prior year period. This is primarily driven by repair sales, as interior refurbishments have not yet returned to 2019 levels. For fiscal Q3, our business jet submarket increased roughly 10% when compared to the prior year period, and reverses the lower number we saw in Q2, highlighting the lumpiness of our commercial aftermarket in any one period. Business jet does remain a watch item due to the tempering business jet flight activity. These increases were partially offset by declines in our freight submarket, which was down roughly 8%.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

The freight decline was primarily a result of the continued return of belly capacity, consistent with what we have discussed on our past few earnings calls. On a sequential basis, freight was up 7%. For the full year, and as you saw in today's guidance, our outlook for commercial aftermarket growth in the mid-teens is unchanged. We saw a number of elements in our Q3 results that make us confident here. Mainly, Q3 bookings in commercial aftermarket were strong, running in line with our expectations in outpacing sales and supporting the full year growth outlook. Additionally, our Q3 point of sales data through our distribution partners was up roughly 25% from the same period last year. Finally, a reminder, commercial aftermarket can be lumpy on a quarterly basis, both revenue and bookings.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

We do expect that as passenger traffic has returned to pre-pandemic levels, the commercial aftermarket rate of growth will continue to moderate. Note that our guide for mid-teens growth across our total commercial aftermarket still incorporates a continued drag from both cargo and the business jet submarkets for the balance of the year. Turning to broader market dynamics and referencing the most recent IATA traffic data for June, global revenue passenger miles have continued to surpass pre-pandemic levels since February 2024. June 2024 air traffic was up 3% above 2019 levels. IATA currently expects traffic to reach 104% of 2019 levels this year and to surpass prior year traffic by 12%. Domestic travel also continues to surpass 2019 levels.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

In the most recently reported traffic data for June, global domestic air traffic was up 10% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Domestic air travel growth has been driven significantly by outsized growth in China, which was up 22% in June compared to 2019. Shifting over to the U.S., domestic travel for June was up about 6% from 2019 air traffic levels. International traffic has generally hovered slightly above or below pre-pandemic levels for the past few months. In the most recently reported data for June, international travel was just slightly below pre-pandemic levels. This is a significant improvement from the 88% of 2019 levels one year ago. In summary, for the commercial aftermarket, we continue to see strong growth in our passenger and interior submarkets, indicative of the continuing positive trends in passenger travel.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

We expect our freight submarket to remain light in year-over-year comparisons based on current trends in the underlying market. Business jet remains a watch item and may continue to bounce around. Shifting to our defense market, which traditionally is at or below 35% of our total revenue. The defense market revenue, which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, grew by approximately 13% compared with prior-year period and is up 20% year-to-date versus the prior-year period. Q3 defense revenue growth was well distributed across our businesses and customer base. Additionally, we saw similar rates of growth in both the OEM and aftermarket components of our total defense market, with aftermarket running slightly ahead of OEM. Defense bookings in the quarter were also strong compared to the same prior-year period, supporting the revised defense revenue guidance for the full year.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

Additionally, we saw growth in the U.S. government defense spending outlays during Q3. We are hopeful we will continue to see steady growth here, but as we have said many times before, defense sales and bookings can be lumpy. Forecasting them with accuracy and precision on a quarterly basis is difficult. As Kevin mentioned earlier, we now expect our defense market revenue growth for this year to be in the high teens% range. This updated guidance for defense primarily reflects the stronger than expected Q3 defense sales, as well as the good Q3 bookings. Next, I will provide a quick update on our recent acquisitions of SEI and the CPI Electron Device Business. The SEI and CPI Electron Device Business acquisition integrations are both progressing well under the leadership of one of our experienced executive vice presidents, Patrick Murphy.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

We have owned SEI and the CPI Electron Device Businesses for a little over two months, and we are pleased with each acquisition thus far. SEI has been bolted onto one of our existing operating units, DART Aerospace. We have split the CPI Electron Device Business into two operating units: Microwave Power Products, located in Palo Alto and Woodland, California, and CPI Electron Device Business, located in Beverly, Massachusetts, and Middlesex, U.K.. Although very early in our ownership of these businesses, we are pleased by what we are seeing in the businesses. In closing, I'd like to express how pleased I am by our operational performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Our management teams remain committed to our consistent operating strategy and servicing the robust demand for our products as we continue through the remainder of the year.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

With that, I would like to turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Wynne.

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

Thanks, Joel, and good morning, everyone. I'll recap the financial highlights for the third quarter and then provide some more information on the guidance subject. First, on organic growth and liquidity. In the third quarter, our organic growth rate was 14.6%, and all market channels contributed to this growth, as Kevin and Joel just discussed. On cash and liquidity, free cash flow, which we traditionally define as EBITDA, less cash interest payments, CapEx, and cash taxes, was roughly $700 million for the quarter, coming in around $1.6 billion on a year-to-date basis. For the full fiscal year, we now expect to generate free cash flow slightly above $2 billion.

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

Below that free cash flow line, net working capital consumed $84 million, and we continue to expect our annual dollars invested in net working capital to roughly align with historical levels as a percentage of sales. We ended the quarter with approximately $3.4 billion of cash on the balance sheet, and our net debt to EBITDA ratio was 4.7x, similar to last quarter, which was at 4.6x, as we paid approximately $1.5 billion for acquisitions in Q3, primarily for the CPI acquisition that we closed on June 6. In addition, we closed on the Raptor acquisition after the quarter, on July 31, and deployed $655 million for that acquisition. Pro forma for the Raptor acquisition, the Q3 quarter and cash balance would have been approximately $2.7 billion.

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

While we don't target a specific amount of cash that we like to have on hand, we are happy to have cash available to support M&A, especially given the timing of closing of some of these can be difficult to predict. We continue to be comfortable operating in the five to seven times net debt EBITDA ratio range. While we are currently sitting slightly below the low end of this range, our go-forward strategy, capital deployment has not changed, and we continue to seek the best opportunities for providing value to our shareholders through our leverage strategy. Our EBITDA to interest expense coverage ratio ended the quarter at 3.5x, which provides us with comfortable cushion right against our target range of two to three times.

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

We continue to closely monitor our debt stack and reprice approximately $3.6 billion of our term loan debt to a more favorable rate of SOFR plus 2.5. Our capital allocation strategy is always to both proactively and prudently manage our debt maturity stack, and nearest term maturity is November 2027, which gives us plenty of protection, at least in the short term. In addition, approximately 75% of our $23 billion gross debt balance is fixed through fiscal 2027. This is achieved through a combination of fixed-rate notes, interest rate caps, swaps, and collars. This continues to provide us adequate cushion against any rising rates, at least in the immediate term.

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

With regard to guidance, as Kevin mentioned, we increased our midpoint sales and EBITDA by $160 million and $85 million, respectively, given the strong quarter, along with our current expectations for the year, including the newly closed acquisitions. Our adjusted EPS guidance is now $33.02, compared to the prior guidance of $32.42, in support of the higher EBITDA. As we sit here today, from an overall cash, liquidity, and balance sheet standpoint, we think we remain in good position, with adequate flexibility to continue pursuing M&A opportunities or return cash to our shareholders via dividends or repurchases. With that, I'll turn it back to the operator to kick off the Q&A.

[Operator]

Thank you. As a reminder, press star one one and wait for your name to be announced. To remove yourself from the queue, press star one one again. One moment for our first question. It comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Melius Research. Please proceed.

[Scott Mikus, Director of Aerospace, Defense, and Space Research at Melius Research]

Good morning. This is Scott Mikus for Rob Spingarn.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Morning.

[Scott Mikus, Director of Aerospace, Defense, and Space Research at Melius Research]

Kevin, Mike, Joel, Sarah, typically, you announce a capital allocation decision when you report fiscal fourth quarter results in November. So I'm curious, given that we might have a potential change in administration and potentially an FTC that might be more open to M&A, does that change your thought process for capital deployment and maybe keeping a little extra dry powder on the balance sheet for M&A going into 2025?

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

Sure. I'll take that one. Yeah, I mean, I think last year we did do something in November. Currently, as we sit here today, you know, obviously we're coming close to closing out fiscal 2024 here. We've got a few billion of cash. I think we'll look to make that decision as we, as we close out 2024, but heading into the fiscal 2025, so sometime by the end of the calendar year.

[Scott Mikus, Director of Aerospace, Defense, and Space Research at Melius Research]

Okay. And then airlines have been flagging over capacity in the passenger market, especially in the U.S., but at the same time, Boeing and Airbus are struggling to ramp up their deliveries. So for the commercial aftermarket products, you mentioned the strong orders from distributors, but have you seen any change in order flow directly from the airlines?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

I think for the quarter, we saw some changes, but not nothing significant. As you said, as we noted, the POS from distribution partners was very strong for the quarter, and I think we had solid book-to-bill in the quarter as well as we have for the full year within commercial. And I think overall, we have not seen any, what I would say, significant change in the, in their patterns, and think that's set us up well for Q4.

[Scott Mikus, Director of Aerospace, Defense, and Space Research at Melius Research]

Okay, I'll stop there. Thanks for taking the questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. And our next question is from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Please proceed.

[Robert Stallard, Partner and Global Aerospace and Defense at Vertical Research Partners]

Thanks so much. Good morning.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Morning.

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

Good morning.

[Robert Stallard, Partner and Global Aerospace and Defense at Vertical Research Partners]

It's probably for Kevin or Joel. I was wondering if you could dig a little bit more into the freight aftermarket and whether there are any specific customers that are perhaps sort of moving things around here as they retire older planes or anything, and that's whether that's having an impact on your aftermarket bookings and revenues.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

I really think this is just driven from the change back to where we were back in 2019. In 2019, the vast majority of freight was through belly capacity. During the COVID time period, it was a big switch over to dedicated freighters. Obviously, with the international markets recovering, it has, you know, pretty quickly and dramatically swung back to belly capacity. So for us, you know, this really impacts us with typically more lower margin products, things like the ULD type products. So although it impacts us more from a revenue standpoint, the actual EBITDA impact is significantly less than the way it shows up from a revenue standpoint. But it really is just the difference of the mix of products that you see on belly passenger freight capacity versus the dedicated freighters.

[Robert Stallard, Partner and Global Aerospace and Defense at Vertical Research Partners]

Right. And then there's a follow-up one for Sarah. In your language, you said you were trying to cushion against rate rises, but looking at this the other way, it looks like rates could be coming down. What sort of opportunity do you see going forward to restructure the debt and reduce your interest costs if the Fed does start to move?

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, I mean, we're, as you know, and as I said, we're 75% hedged. We've done a lot of financing already this year, so we're already in a pretty good position. You know, our next maturity date is until 2027. Because of all the recent refinancing, you know, we've got some breakage fees that we'd have to pay if we wanted to try and reduce any of the rates on any of the stuff we've done recently. But then it just becomes a math exercise, right? If the rates drop substantially, we could go after some of those loans and refinance with the breakage fees and if the math makes sense. But obviously, as you know, we're always looking at this stuff opportunistically.

[Robert Stallard, Partner and Global Aerospace and Defense at Vertical Research Partners]

Yeah. That's great. Thanks so much, guys.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question that comes from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.

[Ken Herbert, Aerospace and Defense Analyst at RBC Dominion Securities]

Yeah, hi, good morning. Maybe for Joel or Kevin, can you explain the discrepancy between the strong growth you saw on the point of sales side in the aftermarket relative to the passenger growth up 16%?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

There's a slightly different, you know, probably mix of products in terms of where products are shipped out. I don't know that there's any dramatic difference. Obviously, our sales include sales to the distribution partners. There's probably some level of inventory destocking that happened as well, which would have impacted us a little bit in terms of how we sell product into the distribution piece. I don't know that there was anything dramatic. You know, from a full year basis, we're up roughly 21% in the passenger sub-market, and the POS is up about that same amount. So some of it is a timing piece as well, in terms of the buy quarter for point of sale versus when we're selling the product. I don't know there's anything beyond it that was really significant.

[Ken Herbert, Aerospace and Defense Analyst at RBC Dominion Securities]

Okay, that's helpful. And if I could, on the interiors piece, some improvement there, it sounds like, certainly sequentially, but are you seeing anything yet that gives you any confidence or any visibility on timing of when you might see more of the sort of the retrofit or upgrade beyond just sort of the repair sales starting to accelerate?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

I think when we started fiscal 2024, we were thinking we would start to see it, see it this year. I think at this point, we don't know. We're seeing some smaller quantities of products now. I don't think we know, and obviously, as we're putting together the 2025 numbers, we'll know better as we put together the guidance for that. But at this point, it's probably wasn't as good as we had thought it would be this year and certainly has pushed to the right. Part of the challenge is there's just not enough aircraft in that can be pulled out of service.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

To do an entire interior refresh, you need planes that you can pull out of service, and certainly there's some level of impact from the fact the OEMs aren't delivering enough new aircraft for them for the airline to be able to pull some number of planes out of service to do that work. So that certainly has an impact on us as well.

[Ken Herbert, Aerospace and Defense Analyst at RBC Dominion Securities]

Great. Thanks, Joel.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America. Please proceed.

[Ron Epstein, Senior Equity Analyst at Bank of America]

Hey, yeah. Good morning, guys.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

Good morning.

[Ron Epstein, Senior Equity Analyst at Bank of America]

Are there any watch areas in your own supply chain that you're keeping an eye on in terms of, you know, areas where there could be shortages, where you want to deploy some of your own people to help out suppliers, that kind of thing?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

So what I would say today is we probably see more issues than we did back in 2019. Overall, it's improved significantly over the past two years. Today, it's probably the same, you know, cast of characters you would, you know, hear from others, castings and electronic components are probably the final two areas. One of the great benefits of our highly decentralized structure is we have 50 separate teams that work closely with their specific supply chain groups and stay close to them as needed. But overall, I think we've continued to see it improve quarter-over-quarter, and you know, when it will get back to 2019 or before levels, I don't know, but I think we continue to see good progress.

[Ron Epstein, Senior Equity Analyst at Bank of America]

Good. And then maybe just one follow-up. When you look at, you know, the M&A environment now, and, you know, we just had that your investor day, not too long ago, has there been much of a change? I mean, is there more stuff out there? Are there more opportunities out there, or is it about how it was just a couple of months ago?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

I think it's about what it was a couple of months ago. We see some, you know, good businesses possibly coming to the market next year, but between now and the end of the year, there's a good collection of stuff that we're evaluating. Again, it's difficult to predict when things meet the criteria, but, you know, we continue to work hard, and it looks the same. We're very busy. We're adding resources, as I had commented on last quarter, and it continues the same. And then, at least near term horizon, we remain very busy on the M&A front, and this year has been an unbelievable year for EBITDA acquired. This will be our second-best M&A year on record, so it's been very encouraging.

[Ron Epstein, Senior Equity Analyst at Bank of America]

Got it. Got it. And then maybe just one last one: How do you guys think about book-to-bill? I mean, if you were to give sort of a sense broadly for, you know, the whole company, what is the book-to-bill for the company, and what's that look like for commercial versus defense? Because defense has been doing quite well as well.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, we usually don't get into parsing this out. I would say year to date, our book to bill is well above one. The business is growing and expanding. The only area in the recent quarter that maybe wasn't as strong was commercial OEM, which I think everyone would expect given what we're reading about Boeing. But yeah, defense is running very strong, but so is commercial aftermarket and commercial OEM. We have strong book to bill and backlog that we've amassed throughout the year. It's been a very positive year on that front.

[Ron Epstein, Senior Equity Analyst at Bank of America]

Got it. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question, and it comes from the line of Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

[Scott Deuschle, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Hey, good morning. Kevin, does the aftermarket comp in the fourth quarter get any easier on the freight side, or is that fairly consistent with what you saw this quarter?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

I think it's fairly consistent from what we saw this quarter. I was just looking at the number, and it looks pretty similar.

[Scott Deuschle, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

You know, yeah. Go ahead.

[Scott Deuschle, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

And then, Joel, do you get the sense that some business units are seeing OEM inventories of their product building up for, you know, platforms like the 787 or 737, or do you feel like they're doing a good job of ensuring that doesn't happen and matching their shipments to the actual OEM production rates?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

I again, when you have 50 operating units, I think this is somewhat varied. You know, part of the key is you have to ship to the OEM delivery date. And so if we see that they're trying to order more than we think is needed, or you're getting inventory, but we do work to negotiate, if we can, to have them push out the order, so we don't end up kind of in this, you know, significant rise and fall level. Ultimately, if the OEM is not willing to make the change, then you still have to ship the product in line with what that is. But we do work hard to deal with that when we can.

[Scott Deuschle, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss, with Barclays.

[David Strauss, Managing Director of Equity Research at Barclays]

Thanks. Good morning. The absolute EBITDA, just the EBITDA guidance for the full year, if I just take what you've done year to date, would seem to imply very little sequential improvement in the fourth quarter, even though, you know, I would assume you're gonna pick up $20 million-$30 million in acquired EBITDA relative to Q2 or relative to Q3. So I guess, what am I missing in that math?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, it's a good question. We looked at it, and, you know, we always aim to be conservative. We just did a pile of acquisitions. We need to, you know, get in there and look at them in more detail. And also defense is where we're seeing more of the growth. We don't make quite as much money on the defense side, so it's a mixture of conservatism and what we think the markets look like. We're certainly not predicting a difficult Q4. We're just being somewhat conservative and practical in how we look at the year unfolding.

[David Strauss, Managing Director of Equity Research at Barclays]

Okay, got it. And hit the mid-teens forecast for the aftermarket for the full year. How much sequential aftermarket growth do you need in the fourth quarter relative to Q3?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

I mean, I think it looks like our bookings, you know, our bookings are ahead of our shipments last quarter. I think we're in a good place. We're at mid-teens right now for the year. I think the way the bookings are unfolding, we shouldn't have any problem hitting mid-teens for the year.

[David Strauss, Managing Director of Equity Research at Barclays]

Okay. Thanks very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag, with Morgan Stanley.

[Kristine Liwag, Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Hey, good morning. Kevin, maybe on M&A. You know, since discussing the widening aperture of M&A at the Analyst Day, but clearly staying focused on A&D, can you discuss more of that pipeline of logistics or of pipeline of targets? I mean, as you wade into this slightly broader pool, how deep is it? Are you seeing kind of maybe 2x the opportunities you would have seen if you're -- you would have stayed with your focus? Any sort of directional or magnitude of size would be helpful.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, I don't think that it is creating another TransDigm out there in some of these other markets, like helicopter accessories, that we've been successful in recently, and the testing, certification, and instrumentation area of aerospace and defense. We wanna stay in aerospace and defense. This only ever so slightly broadens our aperture. We're looking for other solid places in aerospace and defense to put capital to work, and we think these are great areas. They're not gonna double the market of TransDigm, however, but provide nice additional acquisition opportunities for us. So-

[Kristine Liwag, Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Thanks. That's helpful. If I could add another question on PMA. I mean, there's more cost consciousness from airlines, especially in light of the recent profit cuts. At the same time, we're seeing more PMA players enter the industry, seeing your success in commercial aerospace aftermarket and the success of PMA-focused business models like HEICO. You know, your portfolio has historically been more defensible and very defensible against PMA players, and in fact, you do PMA yourself as well. Like, are you seeing anything different this time in this cycle?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

I don't think so. You know, we continue to monitor this. Obviously, used material is not, you know, a player in the aftermarket because of limited planes being scrapped out. As far as PMA goes, we monitor it constantly. The massive lion's share of our products are very complicated products that don't tend to lend themselves to PMA, nor do they have the volumes necessary in many of these cases to lend themselves to PMA. Like I've said, like, our team has said many times, and we said at our Investor Day, we continue to monitor this closely. The FAA publishes a, you know, all of the PMAs approved, and we can follow it very closely, and to date, haven't seen anything that poses, gives us concern.

[Kristine Liwag, Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Great. Thanks for the color.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

[Myles Walton, Managing Director of Aerospace and Defense at Wolfe Research]

Thanks. Good morning. Kevin-

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Good morning.

[Myles Walton, Managing Director of Aerospace and Defense at Wolfe Research]

In your comments, you mentioned that lower OEM production continued to weigh on TransDigm's results, which I think is a statement of obvious on sales. But I'm curious, are your OEM margins also below pre-pandemic levels, and maybe if you can comment on the benefit of some OEM pricing negotiations into year-end and what that might do for you to help if OEM is faster growing in 2025 than aftermarket. Thanks.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, I think on the OEM side, we, you know, we're always working on contracts with OEMs as they expire. But as we have always clearly stated, you know, the lion's share of our profits come from the aftermarket. On the OEM side, I would say we're probably, you know, similar in profitability to where we have been historically. We have seen an awful lot of inflation that we need to account for in, you know, renegotiating of contracts, and, you know, we're working on that right now, but no real update to provide, yet.

[Myles Walton, Managing Director of Aerospace and Defense at Wolfe Research]

Then one detail follow-up, if I could. The EBITDA raise, I think, implies organically was $50 million on $35 million in sales. Is there something in other income or other areas that helped make that 100%, greater than 100% incremental margins?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

No, we don't. Sarah's shaking her head at me. There's nothing that is non-business related to that we can quickly identify.

[Myles Walton, Managing Director of Aerospace and Defense at Wolfe Research]

Okay, thanks.

[Operator]

Thanks. Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

[Noah Poponak, GS Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Hey, good morning.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Morning.

[Noah Poponak, GS Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Just coming back to this topic of opening up the aperture or not on M&A, Kevin. I guess if I zoom out and, you know, if we were looking at your total funnel or, or I guess maybe the things in the funnel that are closer to the finish line than not, or, or if you defined it as, you know, your likely next five to 10 acquisitions, are we still looking at the majority of your deals are going to be, or likely to be, the classic in your wheelhouse, airplane parts, aftermarket rich, sole and dual source, proprietary? Or could it be that the majority are in this category of opening the aperture?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

The vast majority will always be, as we would say, right down the fairway, components, aftermarket content, what we've historically done, and that's what the bulk, the absolute lion's share of everything that we're looking at for the future. That's why I don't wanna oversell the opening of the aperture, but it, it's just smart other places to put money to work. But the bulk of our M&A activity will still be in the component business that you've seen us acquire around for our history.

[Noah Poponak, GS Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Okay, great. And Sarah, do you have a number on how much acquisition margin dilution there is in the fourth quarter EBITDA margin?

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

That's the three new ones. Yeah, for the three new ones, it would be just over 100 basis points.

[Noah Poponak, GS Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Okay, great. And then just one other one for you is, if you got to $2 billion on the full year free cash, it'd be a little over 100% conversion. I can't recall where that stands in terms of being... how it's defined with working capital. Is that including or excluding? And how much working capital use are you looking at for the full year now?

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, for the full year of working capital, I think we're at, like, about 200 full year, so we've got just another quarter to go. So maybe you throw in a bit, a bit more there, but I think we're generally trying to track it to percent sales.

[Noah Poponak, GS Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

The $2 billion would be including that or excluding that headline?

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

No, no, sorry. That would be excluding it. Excluding it.

[Noah Poponak, GS Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Okay. Got it. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jason Gursky with Citi.

[Jason Gursky, US Aerospace and Defense Analyst at Citi]

Hey, good morning, everybody. Hey, Kevin, I was wondering if you wouldn't mind going back to Myles's question about the negotiations that you have going on with some of your OEM customers. Just curious, in the context of, you know, so many disparate operations that you have going on, do you go one by one through each contract at every single one of your business units, or is there a kind of a bigger bang, you know, broader negotiation that's going on here?

[Jason Gursky, US Aerospace and Defense Analyst at Citi]

I know you've just suggested you don't wanna get out ahead of your skis on the timing of things, but I think just understanding what the shape of that might look like for all of us, because that's, I think, an important part of your, your margin story and your ability to, to increase margins going forward, that 100, 150 basis points. And you talked about renegotiations at the Investor Day as being kind of a, kind of a key tenet to, to making sure that continues to happen. Thanks.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, so, you know, with our think and act like an owner, highly decentralized structure, we, we like the idea that every one of our operating units is the ones that sit and have to negotiate the contract. They're the ones who have to live with them. There's really only a couple that are kind of larger, more corporate driven, but we've obviously referred to Boeing in the past. Other than that, I mean, these are really contracts, OEM contracts that are negotiated operating unit by operating unit.

[Jason Gursky, US Aerospace and Defense Analyst at Citi]

... Okay, great. And then, just as a quick follow-up, if you don't mind, I'm just kind of curious what you're seeing on the hiring side of things and your ability to get the right people in the right places and what the trend line has been there here recently. Thanks.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, I think we continue to see that improve. I think turnover has largely, for us, gone back to where we were back in the 2019 timeframe. I think hiring has also significantly improved at the vast majority of our operating units and locations. And, you know, I think we've highlighted before, you know, typically, highly skilled engineers are harder than other positions. I don't know that that's changed materially so, but I think overall, I think it's quite a bit better today than it was a couple of years ago.

[Jason Gursky, US Aerospace and Defense Analyst at Citi]

Great. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ellen Page with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

[Ellen Page, Equity Associate at Jefferies]

Hi, guys, thanks for the question. Just going back to the dilution from M&A, it seems like it's 100 basis points or so next year. How do we think about the puts and takes to profitability, given mix might not be as favorable?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

Could you repeat that question? You broke up.

[Ellen Page, Equity Associate at Jefferies]

Sorry. Just going back to the dilution from M&A, as we think about fiscal 2025, how do we think about the puts and takes to EBITDA margins, given 100 basis points of dilution and potentially less favorable mix?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, we don't want to get into our 2025 forecast just yet. We'll cover that on the next quarter call. Our teams, as you know, we practice bottoms up forecasting, and then we roll that out to you. So our teams are going through that process right now. You know, obviously a lot depends on the future acquisitions and the dilution that we will see. Right now, it's I think 125 basis points of dilution, yeah, for 2024. That will wind down into 2025, but also depends on the acquisitions that we complete. So difficult to forecast. You agree with that, Sarah?

[Sarah Wynne, CFO at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Ellen Page, Equity Associate at Jefferies]

Okay, thanks. I'll leave it at that.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. It's from the line of Seth Seifman with JP Morgan.

[Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

Hi, this is Rocco in for Seth. How should we start thinking about the commercial aftermarket growth in fiscal year 2025, given the capacity growth is slowing and travel started to catch up to pre-COVID levels? Is the double-digit growth rate sustainable, or should we start seeing some more headwinds?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

We don't want to get into, and I know that's what. There's a lot of interest in what next year will look like, and we'll offer that to you guys next quarter. We're still unpacking that ourselves as we look forward. Obviously, it's still a growing and exciting markets, and we'll give you more of that flavor on our next call.

[Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

Great. Yep, understood. And then are there any specific programs or areas that are driving the strong growth in defense aftermarket this year?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

No, it's actually been pretty widespread across almost every one of our defense businesses. You know, there's a couple that have had some larger bookings, but across, when I look at from a revenue standpoint, there isn't really any one significant program that's, that's driven the number.

[Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

Great. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen.

[Gautam Khanna, Managing Director of Industrials at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Hey, good morning, guys.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Morning.

[Gautam Khanna, Managing Director of Industrials at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Just, I had two questions. One, I was curious on the OEM, you know, contract renegotiations, renewals. When do some of those big contracts actually expire? Is that at the end of this year? So that's sort of the timeframe, or I'm just curious, like, how much time do we have before we know the outcomes of those?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

Well, first, we always have some number of LTA contracts that are expiring. I mean, typical OEM contracts are often three to five years. I think one that, you know, Kevin had referred to was a Boeing one that we're currently negotiating. That expires at the end of this year. It reflects a certain group of our businesses, not all of them. Beyond that, there's always some number, every single year, of OEM contracts that come up for renewal or renegotiation.

[Gautam Khanna, Managing Director of Industrials at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Okay. That's helpful.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

We try to handle a lot of those renegotiations, you know, on the... They involve all the sites as well as some coordination from the top. So all of our sites are involved in this process.

[Gautam Khanna, Managing Director of Industrials at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Gotcha. That's helpful. I also want to just ask on the commercial aero aftermarket, is there any thematic thing you're seeing within the data on types of products, whether they're discretionary, non-discretionary, however you want to characterize it, where you're seeing relative strength?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

The only thing I'd say is the engine shops obviously are well booked out. I think our engine businesses are doing extremely well. It's really much more varied after that. I was looking at that same data, if there's some significant difference between discretionary versus non, and there really is not. I think it's just the, probably the nature of how much inventory the OEM, the airlines are carrying and, the specific needs on that one part, but. There wasn't any significant difference when I looked at the data between discretionary and not.

[Gautam Khanna, Managing Director of Industrials at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Great. Thank you, guys.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And it's from the line of Gavin Parsons with UBS.

[Gavin Parsons, Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at UBS]

Hey, thanks, guys. Good morning.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

Morning.

[Gavin Parsons, Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at UBS]

Just want to pull a little bit on what strong bookings and aftermarket means, given, you know, kind of the language has been strong with a pretty wide range of aftermarket growth rates. So just any comment on if that's, you know, bookings above revenue, appreciating it can be lumpy?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, we've booked basically, I think, certainly on a full year basis into this quarter, CAM bookings were ahead of shipments. I don't remember if that was true of every quarter this year, but certainly was true this quarter and in year to date. And actually from a year-to-date basis, even in our freight market, we've booked better than we have shipped out.

[Gavin Parsons, Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at UBS]

Okay, that's helpful. Yeah, and I don't know what typical is nowadays, but would you say you have more or less visibility into kind of next quarter's aftermarket growth than typical?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

I think what we've said before is our aftermarket is lumpy. You know, we—this is a highly book-to-ship business, and I don't know that there's a dramatic change in terms of what percentage books in the quarter and ships out. It's actually remained somewhat the same. But, you know, we have no visibility to what orders are gonna show up that quarter until they do. It's why we always talk about the lumpiness of the booking and shipment number.

[Gavin Parsons, Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at UBS]

Got it. Okay, thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. It's from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities.

[Michael Ciarmoli, Managing Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at Truist]

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Good morning.

[Michael Ciarmoli, Managing Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at Truist]

Joel, maybe just to stay on that topic, I mean, and even kind of going back to Ron's question on the book-to-bill, I mean, there's capacities tight in the marketplace, engine shops are scheduled out, you know, the airlines aren't getting new planes. I mean, would you say as you close out this year, and I can appreciate all the short cycle commentary, but do you think visibility is better than normal, just kind of given what's going on in the OE kind of supply chain challenges and, you know, the extended nature of some of these shop visits that are really scheduled way out?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

I don't think there's a significant change. Our lead times in the aftermarket are relatively short, certainly in comparison to the commercial OEM or the defense side. And so we don't get a dramatic amount of visibility. A significant portion of the orders that we ship in Q4 will book in Q4. So although the engine shops may be booked out several quarters or years, we don't get the same level of orders based on the volume of work they're doing. We may be able to use that to give us some level of guidance or comfort on what orders we may expect, but we don't get extra visibility.

[Michael Ciarmoli, Managing Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at Truist]

Got it. Got it. And then just, Kevin, one more back to M&A on this opening of the aperture. I mean, you've got, you've said it a couple times, 50 different operating units. You've got a lot of scale. Are you thinking or finding that it may be more challenging to stay in that middle of the fairway on airline parts, you know, just given what kind of antitrust or regulatory issues might crop up, and you're kind of opening up the aperture to kind of steer clear of some of those issues?

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

Yeah, I don't see it as something new in the marketplace in terms of, you know, HSR review or anything. I think we've always tried to be smart about our M&A portfolio. So we're not opening the aperture because of, you know, trying to get deals through. It's a desire to consume more capital on M&A if there are good aerospace and defense type businesses in that larger market that make sense for us. So it's simply just taking advantage of what we're finding in the marketplace that we believe matches our very disciplined criteria. We still see a tremendous number of opportunities down the fairway in the traditional components of aerospace and defense, and there are so many parts that are on an airplane that we don't supply yet.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

There are still a vast number that, you know, we can continue to look for in the marketplace. As I look out, there's a lot of opportunity ahead of us still.

[Michael Ciarmoli, Managing Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at Truist]

Okay, sure. Thanks, guys.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. It's from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.

[Peter Arment, Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

Yeah, good morning. Thanks, thanks, thanks for squeezing me in. Hey, Kevin or Joel, maybe can you just comment on, you called out the biz jet market as kind of a watch item. You've had really only one negative quarter of growth, and that was in Q2 in your aftermarket. Otherwise, the last kind of, you know, four quarters, you've had good growth, but you're calling it out. Just maybe you could just provide a little more color on what you're seeing there. Thanks.

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

I think it's just being driven by the larger kind of data pool we see. You know, the data comes out every month from the FAA in terms of takeoffs and landings, and it had picked up. I think it was at one point, like 120% of 2019 levels, and it's kind of modulated now closer to, like, 103%-104% or something like that. So I just think we're seeing an overall slowing in the takeoffs and landings, and so I think we generally think when you see that moderating or slowing or decreasing, it's gonna translate into lower shipments. I think that's the reason we've kinda called it out as a watch item.

[Jaimie Stemen, Director of Investor Relations at TransDigm Group]

I appreciate the call. I'll leave it at one. Thanks, guys.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question, and it comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global.

[Pete Skibitski, Aerospace and Defense Analyst at Alembic Global]

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. I just want to return to this topic of, you know, growing global airline traffic, but some pricing pressure at the airlines. Just was wondering if you guys are. You touched on it earlier, but just was wondering if you're seeing any, you know, trend of airlines tightening their belts, maybe with discretionary spend. And I don't know if you could bifurcate for us on the aftermarket, your, you know, sort of discretionary exposure versus more mandatory. Or, you know, should we think of it that your price points tend to be kind of low enough that it's kind of not an area, you know, your products are not an area where an airline would look to tighten its belt? Thanks.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

You know, I think in general, our price point in the aftermarket is pretty low. We say, you know, a couple thousand dollars per, you know, price point per part in the aftermarket. So it doesn't lend itself to, you know, maybe as much scrutiny at times. But we continue to, you know, operate, you know, deliver the highest quality, best delivery performance, possible in the industry. If there's any, you know, slowdown, maybe as Joel commented on in some of the discretionary aftermarket places, are there any, you know, what airline activity is out there? We've certainly read and seen comment from many of you that the airlines are, you know, trying to, manage inventory closely.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

We haven't necessarily seen any of that translate to our business, but it continues to be a watch item, and we're always looking for any changes. Things seem relatively, you know, business as usual.

[Pete Skibitski, Aerospace and Defense Analyst at Alembic Global]

Appreciate it. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our last question. It comes from the line of Bert Subin with Stifel. Please proceed.

[Bert Subin, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Stifel]

Hey, good afternoon. Maybe just to follow up, Joel, on the, you know, you've had a lot of questions on the sort of how commercial aftermarket is progressing. Is there any color you can provide just from a regional standpoint? Because we've seen a little bit of a divergence in capacity trends globally. Is that impacting sort of your geographic mix?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

I'm sorry, I missed, like, the middle part of your question. If you could just repeat it again. Sorry.

[Bert Subin, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Stifel]

Sure. I was just asking, from a geographic standpoint, we've seen capacity growth, at least relative to 2019 levels, diverge a bit, you know, whether you're looking at the Middle East or Asia or North America or Europe. I'm curious if that's translated into sort of any change in your typical geographic mix of sales in the aftermarket?

[Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer at TransDigm Group]

No, I mean, first, we don't, we don't get great data by region for inventory and demand as it goes through distributors or through OEMs at times here to the airlines. So I, I don't know. We've looked at it a few times to try to figure that out. I, I don't know that we're seeing anything significantly different one region to the next, that I would try to call it out and note it as material.

[Bert Subin, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Stifel]

Got it. And Kevin, just to follow up for you, on the M&A side, you know, a few of your recent deals have focused more on the testing equipment and services side. I'm just curious, you know, what your postmortem is, and how those deals are progressing, and sort of what your interest is to continue building into those spaces.

[Kevin Stein, President and CEO at TransDigm Group]

You know, those acquisitions, Calspan was our first foray into that, and I would say that Calspan is running at or ahead of our acquisition model, so it's a successful acquisition to date, and we would, you know, continue to look favorably on testing, certification, instrumentation, businesses. And it's why we looked at Raptor and why we will continue to look at that space. But our core is still, you know, components for that have aftermarket content. Much like CPI, the largest acquisition we've done in a year was a traditional component business, and that will continue to be our focus. Some of these other pieces are interesting, and we spend time explaining them so that, you know, you understand how it fits into, you know, our disciplined acquisition strategy, which these other businesses clearly do.

[Bert Subin, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Stifel]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. And with that, I will conclude the Q&A session for today and will turn the call back to Jaimie Stemen for closing remarks.

[Jaimie Stemen, Director of Investor Relations at TransDigm Group]

Thank you all for joining us today. This concludes the call. We appreciate your time, and have a good rest of your day. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Joel Reiss, Co-Chief Operating Officer
• Kevin Stein, President and CEO
• Sarah Wynne, CFO

Analysts

• Bert Subin, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Stifel
• David Strauss, Managing Director of Equity Research at Barclays
• Ellen Page, Equity Associate at Jefferies
• Gautam Khanna, Managing Director of Industrials at The Toronto-Dominion Bank
• Gavin Parsons, Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at UBS
• Jaimie Stemen, Director of Investor Relations at TransDigm Group
• Jason Gursky, US Aerospace and Defense Analyst at Citi
• Ken Herbert, Aerospace and Defense Analyst at RBC Dominion Securities
• Kristine Liwag, Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at Morgan Stanley
• Michael Ciarmoli, Managing Director of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research at Truist
• Myles Walton, Managing Director of Aerospace and Defense at Wolfe Research
• Noah Poponak, GS Equity Research at Goldman Sachs
• Pete Skibitski, Aerospace and Defense Analyst at Alembic Global
• Peter Arment, Senior Research Analyst at Baird
• Robert Stallard, Partner and Global Aerospace and Defense at Vertical Research Partners
• Ron Epstein, Senior Equity Analyst at Bank of America
• Scott Deuschle, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Scott Mikus, Director of Aerospace, Defense, and Space Research at Melius Research
• Analyst at JPMorgan Chase