Ardmore Shipping Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 30, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Adjusted Q2 earnings of €9 million (US$0.22 per share) with MR and chemical tanker TCE rates at roughly double cash breakeven, and strong momentum continuing into Q3 with higher rates and solid booking coverage.
  • Positive Sentiment: Agreed to acquire three high-quality MR tankers at attractive second-hand prices and closed a comprehensive refinancing into a single fully revolving credit facility at favorable terms, boosting financial flexibility and maintaining a low cash breakeven.
  • Positive Sentiment: Market fundamentals remain robust—driven by stronger refining margins, OPEC+ supply increases, low diesel inventories and geopolitical factors—supporting heightened trading activity and ton‐mile growth.
  • Positive Sentiment: Product tanker supply dynamics are tightening as the MR and Aframax fleets age, newbuild orderbooks remain slim (just 14% of the MR fleet), and Western refinery closures drive longer haul voyages.
  • Positive Sentiment: Declared the eleventh consecutive dividend, nearly completed a six‐vessel chemical tanker recoating program to access premium cargoes, and maintained a balanced capital allocation across growth, reinvestment and shareholder returns.
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Earnings Conference Call
Ardmore Shipping Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 4 speakers on the call.

Speaker 1

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping Corporation's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded, and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the investor relations section of the company's website, ardmoreshipping.com. We will conduct a question and answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference call will be accessible through August 6 by dialing 1-888-660-6345 or 1-646-517-4150 and entering passcode 24528. At this time, I will turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer of Ardmore Shipping Corporation.

Speaker 2

Good morning and welcome to Ardmore Shipping Corporation's second quarter 2025 earnings call. First, let me ask our President, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to slide two. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the second quarter 2025 earnings release, which is available on our website. I'll turn the call back over to Gernot.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Bart. Please allow me to outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on slide three. First, I'll give you the usual snapshot of second quarter highlights, and then we will call out some transactions we executed since our last call. I will then hand over the call to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and provide an update on our financial and operating performance. Thereafter, I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions. Turning first to slide four, we're pleased to report adjusted earnings for the second quarter of $9 million or $0.22 per share. TCE rates have been increasing over the course of the year, and in the third quarter, typically a softer period, we're seeing continued momentum with even higher bookings to date.

Speaker 2

Our MR tankers earned $23,500 per day for the second quarter and $25,500 so far in the third quarter with 50% booked. Meanwhile, our chemical tankers earned $20,400 per day for the second quarter and $21,700 for the third quarter with 65% booked. Overall, these rates reflect levels that are about double our cash break-even. Market dynamics remain favorable, driven by stronger refining margins, OPEC+ production increases, and heightened geopolitical factors. In addition, long-term industry fundamentals remain robust, which we will cover in more detail later. Moving to slide five. Since our last earnings call, we executed well-timed transactions that enhance our strong performance and earnings power while opportunistically cementing earnings quality. We agreed to acquire three high-quality MR tankers in the second-hand market. All vessels were built in Korea, and we expect to take delivery this quarter.

Speaker 2

We achieved prices that are attractive relative to applicable benchmarks, reflecting Ardmore Shipping Corporation's disciplined and deliberate approach to fleet growth. We also closed on a comprehensive refinancing with leading banks at favorable terms. Through this refinancing, we consolidated our existing debt into a single, fully revolving credit facility, $350 million in total. This enhances our financial flexibility while supporting low cash break-even. In addition, while our predominant trading strategy remains focused on the spot market, we dynamically executed on selected quality fixed-rate opportunities. For one of our 25,000-ton chemical tankers, we secured a three-year time charter at $19,250 per day. The counterparty is a top-tier chemical producer. To give you a bit of context, we achieved essentially what is a three-year MR rate, which goes without saying is a vessel twice the size.

Speaker 2

On a more tactical level, we opportunistically increased our short-term coverage, adding fixed-rate charters on two additional MR tankers. This brings our MR fixed-rate coverage to four vessels at an average rate of $22,500 per day over varying durations between six and 12 months. Turning to slide six, where we highlight our capital allocation policy and how we are delivering across all strategic priorities. We continue to balance growth, reinvestment in our fleet, and capital return to shareholders while maintaining low debt levels. We declared our 11th consecutive dividend since the reinitiation of our dividend policy in 2022. We just mentioned our acquisition of three modern MR tankers, and we're almost done with our chemical tanker recoding project, which we discussed previously. Five of the six recodings are completed, with the final vessel scheduled for completion this quarter.

Speaker 2

We are already seeing results for the ships on the water, accessing premium cargos, and boosting earnings power. With that, I'd like to hand it over to Bart.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to slide eight in the market outlook, starting with industry fundamentals. With OPEC+ ramping up supplies, an additional 2.5 million barrels of oil per day are forecast to hit the water by the end of September. At present, low diesel inventories, particularly in Europe, have already driven up crack spreads, boosting trading activity and incentivizing increased refinery production. In addition, the EU has further ramped up sanctions, creating market inefficiencies and effectively reducing vessel supply. This quarter has also been marked by continued examples of geopolitical disruption. Furthermore, fresh Chinese export quotas for refined products are anticipated to be announced in the near term. Following a significant ramp-up in exports in July, the current quotas are expected to be fully utilized earlier than normal. Turning to slide nine, where we examine the ongoing evolution of the global refinery landscape and its positive impact on product tanker demand.

Speaker 3

The refinery base continues to shift. Refining and petrochemical capacity is increasingly concentrated in the East, while closures persist in the West, driving ton-mile growth. As shown in the table on the upper right, new capacity additions in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa sharply contrast with recent closures in the U.S. and Europe, adding to import volumes and long-haul trade flows. A clear example is playing out in California. Local refinery shutdowns are leading to record-high imports, in fact, up 25% from prior peak levels. The chart on the lower right emphasizes the ton-mile component. Refined product that would have been produced and consumed locally on the West Coast must now be imported on lengthy transpacific voyages. This trend is anticipated to accelerate in the near term, with additional refinery closures planned for the U.S. West Coast over the next 12 months.

Speaker 3

On slide ten, we contrast the aging MR fleet with the decreasing order book, highlighting the favorable supply dynamics. Starting with our favorite chart on the left, the evolution of the MR fleet over time. As we have discussed on previous calls, the MR fleet is the oldest it's been this century. With the lack of new build orders this year, the order book is now declining and currently represents just 14% of the overall MR fleet. Moving to the chart on the right, the aging fleet is three times larger than the current order book. Half the fleet will be older than 20 years by the end of the decade. Now moving to slide 11. Looking at the broader product tanker sector, it's important to highlight the positive impact of the low Aframax order book.

Speaker 3

LR2s have been exiting the product trade, shifting into the crude trade as the Aframax fleet continues to shrink. This is not a temporary shift. More than 50% of the Aframax fleet is now over 15 years old, and there are essentially no new orders for uncoated Aframaxes. The trend is already very evident today. Looking at the chart on the right, the percentage of LR2s in the clean trade has declined over the last several years. Now moving to slide 13. Turning our attention to Ardmore Shipping Corporation's financial performance, we continue to maintain our strong financial position. We successfully refinanced our existing debt facilities into a single, fully revolving credit facility, enhancing our financial flexibility and supporting our low cash break-even. As highlighted in the table on the left, the terms are quite attractive, including a margin of 1.8% and tenure of six years.

Speaker 3

We're showing quarter-ending figures as well as pro forma that include the three-vessel acquisitions. As you'll see, given the notably lower margin and modest leverage level, we continue to maintain our low cash break-even. Turning to slide 14 for financial highlights. For the second quarter, we reported EBITDA of $22.4 million, and as mentioned earlier, earnings per share of $0.22. We continue to frame EBITDA as an important comparable valuation metric against our IFRS reporting peers. Full reconciliation details can be found in the appendix on slide 24. As noted in the chart on the bottom left, we continue our downward trajectory on cash break-even, achieving this in an elevated interest rate environment and when accounting for the recent vessel acquisitions. This cost discipline, in tandem with our significant operating leverage, strongly positions Ardmore Shipping Corporation to take advantage of market volatility.

Speaker 3

Also, please refer to slide 25 in the appendix for our third quarter guidance numbers. Moving to slide 15 for fleet operations. The majority of this year's drydocking work is now behind us, and we have limited dockings in the years ahead. The company stands to benefit from increased revenue days and enhanced earnings power. Drydocking and the related capital expenditures for 2025 are now projected to be $35 to $38 million. As a reminder, approximately half of this capital outlay is related to tank coatings and efficiency upgrade projects. This also includes the first special survey for the 2020 Builds vessel we are acquiring this quarter. In addition, we're continuing to invest in digitalization tools and AI and are seeing benefits across our fleet and shoreside operations. Finally, our on-hire availability was a strong 99% in the second quarter.

Speaker 3

Moving to slide 16, here we bring our nearly completed marine line project to life. As you can see in the shiny pictures on the bottom left, we've got some really fresh, high-spec tank coatings that are enhancing our trading flexibility and attracting premium cargos. These vessels haven't been out of the yard for very long, and we've already secured some really exciting voyages, achieving strong TCE premiums. In fact, with our new coatings, our vessels are practically behaving close to stainless steel tankers, but at a lower capital cost based on current market values. In addition to this, we're benefiting from shorter tank cleaning times, improving asset utilization, and reducing fuel consumption. With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you, Bart. Moving to slide 18, allow me to summarize three key points. Earnings have continued to strengthen through the first half of 2025 and into the third quarter, reflecting favorable market conditions. We executed a range of well-timed transactions and initiatives that further enhance our strong performance and earnings power while maintaining our financial strength. Guided by our strong governance and consistent approach to capital allocation, Ardmore Shipping Corporation continues to deliver on its strategy to create long-term value through market cycles. With that, we now welcome your questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you, gentlemen. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment for your first question. Our first question comes from Omar Nokta from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. Hi, Gernot, and Bart. Good afternoon. Thank you for the update and congrats on the transactions to buy those MR tankers. Clearly, the company's been in a net cash position for the past several quarters. You're buying these MR tankers, and it's not really going to stress your balance sheet. Obviously, you need to take these ships in, transition them in, and get them going. In general, is there a target leverage you want to get to in a perfect world given, you know, in this environment, assuming nothing changes from here? Is there a certain net leverage ratio you'd like to get to?

Speaker 2

I'll let Bart Kelleher comment on that in a second. Omar, good morning, and thanks for joining. I think we're really focusing on value and being opportunistic on all the avenues of capital allocation. We saw great value in these three ships: quality builds, top yard, attractive prices, and we've demonstrated that we were able to be patient as we felt the markets were going through a notable correction over the past year. Now, certainly at an opportune time, we were able to be very decisive, and ultimately, that's what we're looking for. For us, of course, having the financial flexibility to do so is important. We're not trying to optimize for a specific growth target. We're under no rush.

Speaker 2

We have an organization that's performing to a very high standard, is very scalable, but at the same time, it's ultimately value that we're looking for and that will determine our future capital allocation choices.

Operator

I'd just add in, Omar, you know, we really look at debt through the cycle. I'd say, you know, moderate debt levels are a guiding principle. I think to what you're hinting at, certainly it is situational in terms of the market conditions and our view of forward market conditions, but you know, maintaining some dry powder to be opportunistic and build value, all while maintaining the low break-even are things that are really there in focus.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Yeah, that's helpful perspective. Maybe, perhaps, Gernot, just a bit more kind of like a market-related question. Obviously, a lot of moving parts to this, but recently we've been seeing the U.S. stepping up pressure on Russia and using tariffs perhaps as a bit of a deterrent for, say, Chinese or Indian refiners to buy those barrels and refine it. How would you get, as you see this, and things are still to develop, how do you see this kind of affecting the product market if things really start to take shape on that front? Yeah. I think there's a few different things in play. I think markets are definitely getting a stronger sense of direction. We have gone through a period of risk aversion at the earlier part of the year, and I think that's now overcome by sort of a snapback in activity.

Speaker 2

Inventories need to be rebuilt. There's this catch-up phase in trading activity that's playing out now in the third quarter, and of course, we're not far from sort of a structurally stronger winter. I would say that, without kind of trying to unpack the many layers of the geopolitical landscape, we continue to, of course, monitor very closely. As long as we continue to see reshift in trade, reshift in regulation, that creates a constant reshift in trade flows as well. That sort of volatility is something that benefits the overall product tanker market and the way we operate the business. I believe we're perfectly geared for that because it's always a question about how can we best position ourselves in those shifting trade flows.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you, Gernot, for that. Bart, thank you. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 1

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks. Please continue.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Operator. We understand it's a busy reporting day for shipping and the broader general transportation sector. We look forward to further Q&A in follow-up meetings, and thank you. All set for now on the call.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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