TransAlta Q2 2025 Earnings Report

TransAlta EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.13
• Consensus EPS: $0.07
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.06
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

TransAlta Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $451.20 million
• Expected Revenue: $473.94 million
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$22.74 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

TransAlta Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2025
• Date: 8/1/2025
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Friday, August 1, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 11:00AM ET

TransAlta (NYSE:TAC) is a Canada-based power generation and wholesale marketing company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. The company develops, owns and operates electricity-generating facilities and provides power to utilities, commercial and industrial customers, and wholesale markets.

TransAlta’s generation portfolio includes hydroelectric, natural gas, wind, solar and battery storage facilities. The company has also historically operated coal-fired power plants and has been transitioning its generation fleet toward lower-emission sources, including renewable energy and natural gas. Its activities include power generation, energy marketing and the development of new generation and storage projects.

Founded in 1909, TransAlta serves electricity markets in Canada, the United States and Australia. The company’s common shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol TAC and on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol TA. TransAlta is led by President and Chief Executive Officer John Kousinioris.

TransAlta Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: TransAlta delivered Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $349 million, free cash flow of $177 million (C$0.60 per share) and achieved an average fleet availability of 91.6%.
• Positive Sentiment: The Alberta hedging strategy realized prices at a 75–105% premium to spot power, hedging ~4 300 GWh at C$69/MWh and increasing 2026 hedges to ~7 000 GWh at C$67/MWh, well above current forward curves.
• Positive Sentiment: Phase I data center progress includes a 1 200 MW system capacity allocation, with demand transmission service contracts expected mid-September and an MOU nearing completion to unlock significant investment.
• Positive Sentiment: Commercial negotiations for a coal-to-gas conversion at the Centralia site are underway, targeting a definitive agreement by year-end and evaluating additional renewables and storage options on the footprint.
• Positive Sentiment: TransAlta recontracted the Melancthon 1 and 2 and Wolf Island wind facilities, extending their energy contracts to 2031 and 2034 respectively, amid rising Ontario wholesale prices.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning. My name is Livia and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to TransAlta Corporation's second quarter 2025 results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press Star one one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press Star one one again. Thank you, Ms. Paris. You may begin your conference.

[Stephanie Paris, VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy at TransAlta]

Thank you, Livia. Good morning, everyone. My name is Stephanie Paris and I am the Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy of TransAlta. Welcome to TransAlta's second quarter 2025 conference call.

[Stephanie Paris, VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy at TransAlta]

With me today are John Kousinioris, President and Chief Executive Officer, Joel Hunter, Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer, Blain van Melle, Executive Vice President, Commercial and Customer Relations, and Nancy Brennan, Executive Vice President, Legal and External Affairs. Today's call is being webcast and I invite those listening on the phone lines to view the supporting slides that are posted on our website. A replay of the call will be available later today and the transcript will be posted to our website shortly thereafter. All the information provided during this conference call is subject to the forward-looking statement qualifications set out here on slide two, detailed further in our MD&A and incorporated in full for purposes of today's call. All amounts referenced are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted. The non-IFRS terminology used, including Adjusted EBITDA and Free cash flow, are reconciled in the MD&A for your reference.

[Stephanie Paris, VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy at TransAlta]

On today's call, John and Joel will provide an overview of TransAlta's quarterly results. After these remarks, we will open the call for questions. With that, I will turn the call over to John.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Thank you, Stephanie. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining our second quarter conference call for 2025. As part of our commitment towards reconciliation, I want to begin by acknowledging that our company operates on the traditional territories of Indigenous peoples across Canada, Australia, and the United States. We recognize the rich and diverse histories, cultures, and contributions of the First Nations, Inuit, Métis, Aboriginal, and Native American communities. It is with gratitude and respect that we thank the peoples who have lived on these lands for generations for reminding us of the ongoing histories that precede us. TransAlta delivered exceptional results during the second quarter. Our Alberta portfolio's hedging strategy and active asset optimization generated realized prices well above spot prices, while our hydro and wind assets provided significant environmental offsets to our gas fleet's carbon compliance obligation, highlighting the value of our diverse and integrated generating fleet.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

We were also pleased with the performance of our contracted fleet, which exceeded our expectations. During the quarter, we delivered Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 349 million, Free cash flow of CAD 177 million or CAD 0.60 per share, and average fleet availability of 91.6%. We also successfully recontracted our Melancthon 1, Melancthon 2, and Wolfe Island wind facilities in Ontario. The new contracts will replace the current energy contracts for the three wind facilities when they expire, extending their respective contract dates to 2031 for Melancthon 1 and to 2034 for Melancthon 2 and Wolfe Island. Wholesale electricity prices in Ontario are rising, signaling a growing tightness in the supply and demand balance in the province, which sets our fleet up well for recontracting in the next decade.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

We continue to engage directly with the Government of Alberta and the Alberta Electric System Operator on the Alberta data center strategy and their approach to large load integration as well as the restructured energy market design, or REM. In June, the Alberta Electric System Operator released details on Phase I of its approach to data centers, which involved the allocation of 1,200 megawatts of system capacity to data center proponents within the province, including TransAlta. The Alberta Electric System Operator has now commenced work on Phase II of its data center strategy, which will establish the framework for incremental data center development in the province.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

The Government of Alberta continues to express their commitment to the development of a data center industry in a manner that enables investment while maintaining an affordable and reliable electricity system, and we remain confident that the province will develop a framework that will support our data center ambitions, which in turn will see significant investment dollars come to Alberta. Turning more specifically to the work that we're doing in realizing the value of our legacy generation sites, we're pleased with the progress that we're making on our Alberta data center strategy and the associated commercial negotiations, which now reflect the AESO's approach to large load integration. The AESO currently expects Demand Transmission Service contracts to be executed in mid September, which will secure each proponent's access to system capacity.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

We continue to work closely with our counterparties and are progressing towards the execution of a data center Memorandum of Understanding in relation to our system capacity allocation. We're excited about the data center opportunity in Alberta, both for the meaningful investment it brings to the province as well as the anticipated increase in load, which we expect will rebalance the current oversupply of generation in the province, an added benefit for our diverse Alberta portfolio. At our Centralia site, we're actively engaged in commercial negotiations and continue to target executing a definitive agreement before year end. We expect to be able to share detailed development plans for Centralia in the coming months as we firm our plan forward for the site. I'll now pass the call over to Joel.

[Joel Hunter, EVP of Finance and CFO at TransAlta]

Thanks John and good morning everyone. We are pleased with our second quarter operational and financial performance and remain confident in our ability to meet our 2025 guidance range. During the quarter we generated CAD 349 million of Adjusted EBITDA, which was CAD 33 million higher than the second quarter of 2024 due to favorable ancillary service pricing, the use of environmental and tax attributes in Alberta, and the optimization of our assets to capture price volatility in Alberta and at our Centralia site in Washington State. Turning to our segmented results relative to the same period in 2024, hydro segment Adjusted EBITDA increased to CAD 126 million relative to CAD 83 million last year due to higher intercompany sales of emissions credits to the gas segment to fulfill our 2024 GHG Obligation as well as higher production and ancillary prices.

[Joel Hunter, EVP of Finance and CFO at TransAlta]

The wind and solar segment produced Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 89 million in line with the second quarter 2024, primarily due to higher environmental and tax attributes revenue in Alberta that was offset by lower tax attributes revenue from our Oklahoma assets and lower Alberta power pricing for a merchant wind fleet. In the gas segment, Adjusted EBITDA decreased to CAD 128 million from CAD 142 million in 2024, mostly due to lower realized power prices in Alberta and higher carbon and natural gas pricing, which was partially offset by the addition of the Heartland and previously mentioned higher quantity of internally generated emissions credits utilized to settle a portion of our 2024 GHG Obligation.

[Joel Hunter, EVP of Finance and CFO at TransAlta]

The Energy Transition segment delivered Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 19 million, a CAD 17 million increase year over year due to higher market optimization benefits and higher availability at our Centralia facility, which had an extended turnaround in the second quarter of last year. Energy marketing Adjusted EBITDA decreased by CAD 13 million to CAD 26 million, primarily due to comparatively subdued market volatility across North American natural gas and power markets and lower realized settled trades in the quarter compared to last year. Corporate Adjusted EBITDA was in line with last year at CAD 39 million, largely due to increased spending to support our strategic and growth initiatives and the addition of corporate costs related to the acquisition of Heartland. As a reminder, our Adjusted EBITDA excludes the impact of ERP costs as the integration is not reflective of ongoing operations or the performance of our operating assets.

[Joel Hunter, EVP of Finance and CFO at TransAlta]

Overall, this strong performance generated Free cash flow of CAD 177 million in the second quarter, in line with the same period last year. Our higher Adjusted EBITDA was offset by higher sustaining capital expenditures in our gas fleet during the quarter, as well as higher net current tax and interest expenses. Turning to the Alberta portfolio, the second quarter spot price averaged CAD 40 per megawatt hour, which was lower than the average price of CAD 45 per megawatt hour in 2024. The decline year over year was primarily due to incremental generation from the addition of new gas, wind, and solar supply in the province, as well as benign weather.

[Joel Hunter, EVP of Finance and CFO at TransAlta]

Throughout the quarter, we deployed hedging strategies to enhance our portfolio margins and mitigate the impact of lower merchant power prices and realized the benefit from approximately 1,900 GW hours of hedges at an average price of CAD 70 per megawatt hour, representing a 75% premium to the average spot price. In addition, our hydro fleet delivered an average realized merchant price of CAD 82 per megawatt hour, a 105% premium to the average spot price, while the gas fleet realized a 55% premium to the average spot price. Our merchant wind fleet, which cannot be used as firm power for hedging activities, realized an average price of CAD 23 per megawatt hour. We were able to deliver additional ancillary volumes across the Alberta fleet in the quarter. Our average realized price for ancillary service pricing settled at CAD 42 per megawatt hour, a 5% premium to the average spot price.

[Joel Hunter, EVP of Finance and CFO at TransAlta]

Despite relatively benign weather in the quarter, which resulted in lower spot power prices, we captured additional margins by fulfilling a portion of our higher price hedges with purchase power when prices were below our variable cost of production, leading to an overall realized price per megawatt hour produced of CAD 111. Looking at the balance of the year, we have approximately 4,300 GWh of our Alberta generation hedged at an average price of CAD 69 per megawatt hour, well above the current forward curve of CAD 48 per megawatt hour. Going forward, we expect to continue to optimize our fleet and reduce production in low-priced, high-supply hours by fulfilling our financial hedges and customer requirements with open market purchases. Looking at next year, our team has increased our hedge position to approximately 7,000 GWh at an average price of CAD 67 per megawatt hour, which remains well above current forward pricing levels.

[Joel Hunter, EVP of Finance and CFO at TransAlta]

I'll now turn the call back over to John.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Thank you, Joel. We remain focused on the following priorities for 2025. First, delivering Adjusted EBITDA and Free cash flow within our 2025 guidance ranges. Second, improving our leading and lagging safety performance indicators while achieving strong fleet availability. Third, maximizing the value of our legacy thermal energy campuses by capturing the opportunity presented in securing a data center customer at Alberta Thermal as well as a coal-to-gas conversion at Centralia. Fourth, successfully pursuing any strategic M&A opportunities that may arise. Fifth, maintaining our financial strength and flexibility, which Joel and his team advanced through the extension of our credit facilities in July, and finally, implementing the upgrade to our ERP Program. I believe TransAlta offers a compelling investment opportunity.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

We're a safe and reliable operator with strong cash flows underpinned by our diversified hydro, wind, solar, and gas portfolio located across three countries and complemented by our leading asset optimization and energy marketing capabilities. We're a clean electricity leader with a focus on tangible greenhouse gas emission reductions as we remain on track to achieve our ambitious 2026 CO2 Emissions Reduction target. There is significant and growing value in our legacy thermal sites, which our team is actively working to repurpose to meet the growing need for reliable generation in the jurisdictions in which we operate. We remain disciplined in our approach to growth, focused on delivering value to our shareholders within our core jurisdictions as we work to diversify our portfolio and increase the stability and contractiveness of our cash flows. Our company also has a sound financial foundation.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Our balance sheet is flexible and we have ample liquidity to pursue and deliver multiple growth opportunities, along with the ability to also return capital to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Finally, and most importantly, we have our people. Our people are our greatest asset. I want to thank all our employees and contractors for their commitment in setting the company up for success in the second half of 2025. Thank you. I'll now turn the call over to Stephanie.

[Stephanie Paris, VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy at TransAlta]

Thank you, John. Operator. Livia, would you please open the call for questions from the analysts?

[Operator]

Certainly, Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question at this time, you will need to press Star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, simply press Star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the queue. Now, first question coming from the line of Robert Hope with Scotiabank. The line is now open.

[Robert Hope, Director of Equity Research at Scotiabank]

Hello everyone. First question on the data center discussions. With your customers there. What are the gating factors to successfully. Execute a Memorandum of Understanding there as well. If additional capacity does come up for grab, just given the fact that two developers have dropped out, do you have, we'll call it, enough demand in pocket? To go out after those as well.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Good morning, Robert. In terms of the additional stage gating items, it isn't that there is any significant impediment to us moving forward. It just takes time for us to finalize all of the terms associated with the Memorandum of Understanding. We're working with our customers. They have work that they're doing as well. We had a shift in the approach that the Alberta Electric System Operator was taking around data centers, and all of that just takes time. What I can tell you is that we're very, very pleased with the progress that we're making and are confident in the project as we're envisioning it going forward. In terms of additional capacity, we're focused on the capacity that's been allocated to us and we're also focused on what subsequent stages of development could occur at the site. That takes a bit of time to think through with our team.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Those would be the main things. Right now, I'm not seeing any significant impediments. We're just working things through.

[Robert Hope, Director of Equity Research at Scotiabank]

Great. Appreciate that. Maybe turning attention to south of the border midlife natural gas. Can you update us on how you're thinking about that market and is this an increasing focus for the organization?

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

The short answer is yes, it is an increasing focus for the organization. We're actually seeing quite a few opportunities south of the border, but actually in places also north of the border, I would say around natural gas. Our focus is obviously on facilities that would be in the core markets that we're focused on, which is the West, in particular the Pac Northwest, and also, I would say, the desert Southwest. There are also opportunities potentially in Ontario that we're looking at. It is very active for our team. We like the multiples that we see those assets being traded at right now. They work for us. Given our energy marketing expertise, they really are a priority.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

I would say we are also seeing selectively opportunities around renewables as well, as there's been a bit of compression in the multiples both on the renewables and at the same time a bit of an increase in the multiples on gas. To a certain point, they actually overlap a little bit. Joel, I don't know if you want to add anything to that.

[Joel Hunter, EVP of Finance and CFO at TransAlta]

No, I think, John, you're right.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

No, it's a busy time for our team.

[Robert Hope, Director of Equity Research at Scotiabank]

Excellent. Thank you.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Thanks, Robert.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Maurice Choy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

[Maurice Choy, Canadian Energy Infrastructure Analyst at RBC Capital Market]

Thank you, and good morning everyone. Just a quick one on phase I.

[Maurice Choy, Canadian Energy Infrastructure Analyst at RBC Capital Market]

I also just have my broad question here. It sounds like you have really good. Momentum here towards securing your MOU. I'm just curious if the timeline has changed in terms of your expectations since the Q1 call. Sounds like you would have been able to announce a Memorandum of Understanding on this call. Had it not been decision to move the AESO decision to mid September.

[Maurice Choy, Canadian Energy Infrastructure Analyst at RBC Capital Market]

More broadly, do you Think Alberta is capable of delivering power to, say, gigawatt scale data centers even. If it's over phases? What would that require? Thank you.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Yeah, on the first point, look, when we talked about sort of mid-year, roughly speaking, to get an MOU done, that was on the basis of the best knowledge we had at the time. In that first quarter, we are actively involved right now. We are making progress. There has been an evolution in the way that we envision the project developing, not just in terms of our immediate allocation but over time. That just takes time to work through. We're diligently progressing that, and we do expect to advance that in a very orderly way in the coming period. On your second question.

[Maurice Choy, Canadian Energy Infrastructure Analyst at RBC Capital Market]

Yep.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

On the second part on delivering additional megawatts here, look, all of the discussions that we are having, all of the discussions that we're having with the AESO, I think the vision that the province has on seeing incremental load come into the province and develop a healthy and vibrant data center industry in the province, I think remains unabated. I would say we're focused on bringing subsequent phases of load on our site. We have all these great attributes at our facility there to see it through. We're not alone in the province in that regard, and I think we're confident, I know our company is confident that we will see a pretty vibrant data center industry develop in the province over time.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

The other thing I would say is, and this shouldn't be lost on people, it will serve to also rebalance load in the province, which is a particular benefit, I would say, to a company like ours that has that diversity of fleet that can benefit through the portfolio and the great optimization team that we have.

[Maurice Choy, Canadian Energy Infrastructure Analyst at RBC Capital Market]

Sounds great.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Thank you very much.

[Maurice Choy, Canadian Energy Infrastructure Analyst at RBC Capital Market]

Sure.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question coming from Benjamin Pham with BMO Capital Markets. The line is now open.

[Benjamin Pharm, Managing Director of Pipelines and Utilities Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Thanks, Kamor. Want to stay on the same topic and maybe just for you, John, can you elaborate? You mentioned versus Q1 or maybe a different timeline. The project materializing a bit differently than how you envisioned. Can you expand on that a bit? Is that size counterparty just? Any additional details would be helpful.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

No, it isn't about counterparties or even particularly about size. It's more around getting clarity in June from the AESO in terms of how the phase was going to actually play out. Up until that time, we were not really guessing, but anticipating the pathways that it could take and how our facilities could fit into that. We got clarity, you know, a month and a bit ago, and we're working with our customers to kind of realize it now that we've got clarity and also spending time with them to figure out, you know, what subsequent stages look like and what the timing would be. It's not that there's a deviation or a significant change in the process that we're doing. It just takes time to get it done in the way that makes sense for everybody. We remain very confident.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

In fact, I'd say more confident now and very pleased in the process that we're making.

[Benjamin Pharm, Managing Director of Pipelines and Utilities Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay, that's good to hear. I know you mentioned the mid-September DTS execution, but that doesn't suggest from your eyes that an MOU is around that timeline. It sounds like your timelines have shifted a bit from your initial expectations.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

That's right. We're working on it. The DTS execution timeline is something we're obviously aware of because we're focused on securing our position. We will be entering into that contract on that date. Honestly, our MOU is working kind of in a pathway that is separate from a timing perspective to that. That DTS contract component is a given from our perspective, if I can put it that way.

[Benjamin Pharm, Managing Director of Pipelines and Utilities Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay, got it. Maybe just the last one. Same topic here, let's just assume what you have here, the allocation phase. One year, you shored up MOU, and then contract. Is there additional opportunity from Keephills or other assets to engage in additional PPAs with data centers that are built that need power, which is a strategy that maybe some other folks may be taking?

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

What I would say to that is the way that we are working with our customer right now would sort of see us at least in the immediate phase, being a comprehensive solution for the customer that we're working with. We're not currently envisioning that we're breaking that up or parceling it up at this point in time.

[Benjamin Pharm, Managing Director of Pipelines and Utilities Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay, got it. That's useful. Thank you.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Yep.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of John Mould with TD Cowen. The line is now open.

[John Mould, Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen]

Hi. Morning, everybody. Maybe just starting with potential fleet investments in Alberta, and that's in the context of the data center opportunity. In the scenario of a material market tightening, your older coal-to-gas units, presumably we wouldn't see them running at 90% capacity factors outside of K3. What kind of normalized capacity factor could we see from the Sundance or Sheerness assets if the market does tighten by 1.2 GW, let's say. Are there any additional investments that you need to make on your end to maintain that level of utilization?

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Yeah. Good morning, John. If it depends on the pace at which the data centers come into the province, in the scenario that you described, where the full 1.2 GW ends up coming into the province, reliability in the province would absolutely require our fleet to be running at relatively high capacity factors. It does not take too much for the reserve margin in the province to actually tighten up, with the result that our units have both significantly higher capacity factors and also an associated increase in the realized spot price in the province beyond, I would say, what the forward curve is currently indicating. In terms of capital investment that we would need to make sure that we do this so that we've got the units in the appropriate kit, in the context of also our own data center obligations, it is relatively modest.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

I would say we're not talking numbers that are beyond the tens of millions of dollars, normal core sustaining capital for the units to make sure that they're able to run. What is required on the part of our company, which is work that we're doing now, is envisioning what do the 2030s look like as we get into the next decade to meet in an efficient manner load growth over that period of time. I think we're in a good place because we've got a lot of optionality around our fleet, and it is, physically and operationally, in a very good place.

[John Mould, Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay, thanks for that detail.

[John Mould, Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen]

Maybe on your comments around the phase II expansion and engaging with counterparties there, wondering what those discussions are like so far in terms of the timing that customers are hoping to see and what kind of initial dialogue you've had with government or Alberta Electric System Operator regarding phase II, how they're approaching it, the pace that could be achieved on that consultation, and giving the market clarity there.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Yeah, I'll maybe start with the back part of your question and then flip to the front part of the question, John. Look, the discussions with the AESO and even the government are at, I would say, at a relatively early phase. We understand that they want to encourage the development of the industry while making sure that we have reasonable prices in the province and an appropriate level of reliability. That makes a lot of sense to us in terms of the way that they're progressing that. The work and the discussions are at an early phase. I think in principle, that makes a lot of sense and is very logical in terms of timing. I can tell you that we're encouraging them to do it as promptly as they possibly can. Ideally, we would end up getting some certainty before the end of the year.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Maybe it drifts into the early part of the next year. I think it's important from a planning perspective for companies like ours, given where the supply chain is, if you see what I'm saying, in terms of our need to envision the 2030s and beyond to be able to have that certainty, to get the planning that we need to move forward. The AESO understands that and they're acutely aware of that going forward. In terms of our discussions with our customers with respect to that, there isn't a lot that I can candidly say on the call other than it is a focus area for them. They do have a view on what a ramp up could potentially be, and we're working with them to be able to plan that up and make sure that we serve their needs in an appropriate manner as we go forward.

[John Mould, Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay, that's great. Thanks.

[John Mould, Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen]

Maybe one last one. On carbon credit sales, those are up year over year, and I appreciate some of that's a function of the TIER program structure. Alberta has said it'll freeze the TIER price. Obviously, that's in conflict with the minimum national carbon price from the federal government. How are you thinking about your carbon credit portfolio more broadly? A bit of an aside, but does that remain a tool in the data center discussion, or is the carbon aspect of that data center conversation less relevant right now?

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Yeah, look, I would be remiss if I started sort of predicting where kind of the province will end up from a tier perspective at the CAD 95 level where we are today, versus kind of the escalation that is required from a policy perspective at the federal government. For much of the planning that we do, we tend to think of a continuation of carbon pricing. I think that's sort of a conservative view that we take in terms of the fleet. I think that's a to be determined. To be candid, John, in terms of our environmental attribute portfolio in the province, it is a real advantage that we have both on the hydro side and on the wind side.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

It is able to provide a meaningful reduction in the impact of the emissions that we have on our fleet, which tends to be a little bit less efficient than some of the new facilities that have been built. It basically nullifies kind of that differential between ours and those kind of facilities. The values are pretty significant. We see a lot of value in those attributes. We'll continue to, I think, Joel, probably the right word is monetize those assets as we go forward and use them to ensure the competitiveness of our fleet, but also in a cost effective way meet the needs of our data center customer going forward. It's a real asset, I would say that we have. Okay, I'll leave it there.

[John Mould, Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen]

Thanks for taking my questions.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Mark Jarvi with CIBC. Your line is now open.

[Mark Jarvi, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC]

Yeah, good morning everyone. Are you able to state how much allocation you received in phase I?

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Mark, we haven't stated how much allocation we have, and we're not in a position to actually give that right now. What I would say is we're comfortable with it, we're working around it, and our customers are also comfortable with it, particularly in the context of how they envision the development of our site working forward. Our focus with them is as much on subsequent stages as it is on the base amount.

[Mark Jarvi, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC]

Have you made changes in terms of which assets you think you would use to serve the customer on the allocation through phase I, like I seen before, like Keephills Unit Two was there, is it more thinking Unit three or combining with hydro? You kind of made a comment about the hydro offsets being something that might be a tool you can use for your customer.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Yeah, I think there's sort of two parts to that question. I think one of them would be in terms of the physical location for the data center. That would very much be, you know, in and around our Keephills site. That is the work that we're doing and all of the, you know, everything from permitting right through to kind of geotechnical work, it's all with a view to developing the physical site there for the center. As you know, it requires a large-ish footprint to be able to do that. In terms of how we serve the load, we can serve it more broadly from, I would say, our entire fleet. It isn't just wedded to Keephills. As we think of subsequent phases, it might be a little bit, you know, potentially a little bit more unit contingent, if I can put it that way.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Right now we absolutely have our entire, you know, based on the structure of phase I, we absolutely have our entire portfolio to be able to use to basically serve the needs of our customer going forward, which is really, really helpful. It's great having that portfolio. No, that's great to hear.

[Mark Jarvi, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC]

Do you need clarity on phase II to get to a dissent agreement with your customer, or can you do it in stages where, using the first allocation, you can move to commercial final contract and then have an ability to contract beyond that for subsequent megawatts?

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

I think it's more the, if I remember your statement, more the latter part. In other words, we're looking at the finalization of our Memorandum of Understanding will not require the finalization of phase II of the consultation process. I think we have a number of tools to be able to deal with subsequent staging going forward. Hopefully that gives you a sense. No, that's helpful.

[Mark Jarvi, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC]

The last, just for me on this topic here is just. The decision. Not to try to buy allocations from other people. Obviously, it would have been upfront payment for that, but versus having to invest to bring in new capacity to serve new load, which I believe is the criteria that will come through in phase II. Just trying to square those two opportunities to get as much as you can now through phase I versus a bit more of a capital intensive opportunity set through phase II.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Yeah, look, I'm not going to speculate or get into discussions on the reallocation of the megawatts that ended up taking place going forward. What I would say is I agree that the second phase is going to, like our working assumption is it's going to require incremental generation to be provided. What I would say in response to that, and this is a point that we're working to speak to the government and the AESO about, is that underutilized facilities are akin to incremental generation being brought on in the province. If something has a capacity factor of 20%, it has a lot of room to provide additional generation to serve the needs of a data center customer, whether it's in front of the fence or behind the fence, candidly, to be able to see it through.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

That's just something that we need to be very mindful of and is certainly a speaking point for us.

[Mark Jarvi, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC]

There's one last one. The units that you had earmarked for the Pinnacle project, are those things that you can repurpose for a data center customer?

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Potentially, yes. Okay, great.

[Mark Jarvi, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC]

Thanks.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

[Company Representative at Jefferies]

Hi, this is Tanner on for Julien. Good morning, everyone.

[Company Representative at Jefferies]

Maybe just a follow-up on John's question regarding the developing phase II discussion. Are the potential counterparties you're speaking with the same kind of subset and type of customers, the same types of goals as phase I? Do you see discussions progressing similarly to the ones you've had over the past year?

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Yeah. Good morning, Tanner. What I would say is that our discussions are with a singular, I would say, customer, and they would encompass not only sort of phase I, but phase II. Okay, great, thanks.

[Company Representative at Jefferies]

I just wanted to follow up on your Centralia commentary and the extended timing. Do you still view the opportunity through the lens of a specific and singular customer with a well-defined development plan?

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

On site, or are there at this?

[Company Representative at Jefferies]

Point competing visions or counterparties under deliberation? Thanks.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Yeah, the work that we're doing in Centralia is with respect to meeting the needs of a singular customer in that jurisdiction. It is around literally devoting the entire facility to that customer on a coal-to-gas converted generation basis for an extended period of time. It would be a long-term power purchase arrangement or tolling agreement for that facility. There would need to be capital spent to do the conversion from coal to natural gas. It literally is, in terms of the existing facilities we have on site, all around Centralia unit 2 and how we would bring that forward. Having said all of that, we do have a very large geographic footprint in the region.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Our team is also exploring potential opportunities to add other generation there, likely because of the gas constraints, at least initially, more in the vein of renewables, whether that would be solar power or wind power or possibly even storage on site. That could be for that singular customer or it could be for other customers. That's something that is developing. The site is great. It's about 80 kilometers, 60 miles or so away from the city of Seattle. It's a great footprint. We have a skilled workforce there. Transmission is ample, to use a Canadianism. It's really at center ice of the grid there. We view the unit as being critical to the reliability of the grid in that part of the world.

[Company Representative at Jefferies]

Fantastic. Thank you.

[John Kousinioris, President and CEO at TransAlta]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. There are no further questions in queue. I would now like to turn it back to Stephanie Paris for any closing remarks.

[Stephanie Paris, VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy at TransAlta]

Thank you, everyone. That concludes our call for today. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the TransAlta investor relations team. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Stephanie Paris, VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy
• John Kousinioris, President and CEO
• Joel Hunter, EVP of Finance and CFO

Analysts

• Robert Hope, Director of Equity Research at Scotiabank
• Maurice Choy, Canadian Energy Infrastructure Analyst at RBC Capital Market
• Benjamin Pharm, Managing Director of Pipelines and Utilities Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
• John Mould, Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen
• Mark Jarvi, Equity Research Analyst at CIBC
• Company Representative at Jefferies