NexPoint Residential Trust Q4 2025 Earnings Report

NexPoint Residential Trust EPS Results

• Actual EPS: N/A
• Consensus EPS: $0.72
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

NexPoint Residential Trust Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: N/A
• Expected Revenue: $62.82 million
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

NexPoint Residential Trust Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2025
• Date: 2/24/2026
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, February 24, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 11:00AM ET

NexPoint Residential Trust (NYSE:NXRT) is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, leasing and management of single‐family rental homes across the United States. The company targets suburban and Sun Belt markets with favorable demographic trends, seeking to build a diversified portfolio of standalone residences that serve the growing demand for quality rental housing. By concentrating on professionally managed homes rather than multi‐family apartments, NexPoint Residential Trust aims to offer tenants the benefits of privacy and space, while generating predictable rental income for investors.

The firm’s investment strategy combines direct acquisitions of built single‐family homes with selective joint ventures and partnerships to optimize scale and geographic diversification. Its portfolio spans key markets in Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and other high‐growth regions. Each property is subjected to a disciplined underwriting process that evaluates neighborhood fundamentals, employment trends and household formation rates to support long‐term occupancy and rent growth.

Formed in mid‐2020, NexPoint Residential Trust is externally managed by NexPoint Real Estate Advisors, LLC, an affiliate of Highland Capital Management, a Dallas‐based alternative investment firm. The advisory team leverages Highland’s real estate expertise and capital markets platform to source opportunities, negotiate acquisitions and oversee property operations. This structure allows the trust to benefit from dedicated asset management capabilities without maintaining an extensive in‐house staff.

Looking ahead, NexPoint Residential Trust plans to continue scaling its single‐family rental portfolio by targeting markets with strong population growth and limited supply of affordable housing. The company’s focus on operational efficiency, tenant satisfaction and disciplined capital deployment supports its goal of delivering stable cash flows and enhancing net asset value over time.

NexPoint Residential Trust Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Negative Sentiment: Q4 same‑store NOI declined ~4.8% year‑over‑year and same‑store occupancy finished at 92.7%, with increased concessions and softer rental income pressuring near‑term operating results.
• Neutral Sentiment: 2026 guidance forecasts Core FFO of $2.57 per diluted share (midpoint) while projecting same‑store NOI roughly flat to down 0.5% and EPS remaining negative, signaling steady cash flow but limited near‑term earnings upside.
• Positive Sentiment: Liquidity and leverage profile is solid — $121.7 million available (cash + undrawn capacity), no scheduled debt maturities until 2028, $1.6 billion total indebtedness at a 3.28% average rate, and interest rate swaps hedging 62% of floating mortgage debt.
• Positive Sentiment: Management repurchased 223,109 shares in 2025 at an average $34.29 (~29% discount to the NAV midpoint) and says it will continue opportunistic buybacks if valuations remain attractive.
• Positive Sentiment: Company continues its value‑add strategy — 2026 plan includes ~300 full and 400 partial unit upgrades plus 680 W/D installs with targeted low‑to‑mid‑20% ROIs, and the recent Sedona acquisition in Las Vegas is expected to drive occupancy gains and a ~7.2% NOI CAGR through 2029.

Presentation

[Operator]

Hello, thank you for standing by. My name is Tiffany, I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the NexPoint Residential Trust Q4 2025 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press star, then one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to turn the call over to Kristen Griffith, Investor Relations. Kristen, please go ahead.

[Kristen Griffith, Director of Investor Relations at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Thank you. Good day, everyone, welcome to NexPoint Residential Trust conference call to review the company's results for the Q4 ended 12/31/2025. On the call today are Paul Richards, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Matt McGraner, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer; Bonner McDermett, Vice President, Asset and Investment Management. As a reminder, this call is being webcast through the company's website at nxrt.nexpoint.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are based on management's current expectations, assumptions, and beliefs.

[Kristen Griffith, Director of Investor Relations at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Listeners should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements and are encouraged to review the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and the company's other filings with the SEC for a more complete discussion of risks and other factors that could affect any forward-looking statements. The statements made during this conference call speak only as of today's date, and except as required by law, NXRT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. This conference call also includes an analysis of non-GAAP financial measures. For a more complete discussion of these non-GAAP financial measures, see the company's earnings release that was filed earlier today. I would now like to turn the call over to Paul Richards. Please go ahead, Paul.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Thanks, Kristen. Welcome everyone joining us this morning. We appreciate your time. I'll kick off the call, cover our Q4 and full year results and highlights, update our NAV calculation, and provide initial 2026 guidance. I'll turn it over to Matt to discuss specifics on the leasing environment and metrics driving our performance and guidance and details on the portfolio. Results for Q4 are as follows: Net loss for the Q4 was a loss of $10.3 million, or $0.41 per diluted share on total revenue of $62.1 million, as compared to a net loss of $26.9 million, or $1.06 per diluted share in the same period in 2024 on total revenue of $63.8 million.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

For the Q4, NOI was $37.1 million on 35 properties, compared to $38.9 million on 35 properties for the Q4 of 2024, a 4.7% decrease in NOI. For the Q4, same-store rental income decreased 2.8%, and same-store occupancy closed at 92.7%. This, coupled with an increase in same-store expenses of 1.1%, led to a decrease in same-store NOI of 4.8% as compared to Q4 2024. We reported Q4 Core FFO of $16.5 million, or $0.65 per diluted share, compared to $0.68 per diluted share in Q4 2024.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

During 2025, NXRT repurchased 223,109 shares for a weighted average price of $34.29 per share, which is approximately 29% discount to the midpoint of our Q4 2025 NAV, to be discussed here shortly. We continue to execute our value-add business plan by completing 388 full and partial renovations during the quarter, and leased 275 renovated units, achieving an average monthly rent premium of $74 and a 22.2% ROI.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Since inception, NXRT has completed installation of 9,866 full and partial upgrades, 4,979 kitchen and laundry appliances, and 11,199 tech packages, resulting in $158, $50, and $43 average monthly rental increases per unit, and 20.8%, 63.7%, and 37.2% ROI, respectively. Results for the full year 2025 are as follows: Net loss for the year ended 31st December was $32 million, or a loss of $1.26 per diluted share, which included a $95.8 million of depreciation and amortization expense.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

This compared to net income of $1.1 million, or income of $0.04 per diluted share for the full year of 2024, which included a gain on sale of real estate of $54.2 million and $97.8 million of depreciation and amortization expense. As a quick reminder, the company sold our two remaining Houston assets, as well as Radbourne Lake and Charlotte in 2024. For the year, NOI was $151.7 million on 35 properties, as compared to $157 million on 35 properties for the same period in 2024, or a decrease of 3.4%. For the year, same-store rental income decreased 1.3%, and same-store occupancy closed at 92.7%.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

This, coupled with a slight increase in same-store expenses of 0.1%, led to a decrease in same-store NOI of 1.6% as compared to the full year in 2024. We reported Core FFO in 2025 of $71.3 million or $2.79 per diluted share, compared to $2.79 per diluted share for 2024. Since inception of the business in 2015, NXRT has generated 8.54% compounded annual growth rate in our Core FFO. Moving to the NAV per share.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Based on our current estimate of cap rates in our markets, unchanged at 5.25%-5.75%, and our 2026 NOI guidance, we are reporting a NAV per share range as follows: $41.43 on the low end, $55.72 on the high end. With a $48.57 at the midpoint. Our dividend update. For the Q4, we paid a dividend of $0.53 per share on 31st December. Since inception, we have increased our dividend 157.3%. For 2025, our dividend was 1.35x covered by core FFO, with a payout ratio of 73.8% of core FFO. Our capital markets, balance sheet, leverage, and liquidity.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

On July 11, 2025, the company entered into a $200 million revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank and the lenders party thereto from time to time. The credit facility may be increased by up to an additional $200 million if the lenders agree to increase their commitments. The new facility improves pricing by 15 basis points across all leverage tiers to term SOFR+ 150-225 basis points. The credit facility will mature on July 30, 2028, unless the company exercises its option to extend for a one-year term. NXRT has $13.7 million of unrestricted cash and $108 million of available undrawn capacity on our unsecured corporate credit facility, giving the company $121.7 million of available liquidity as we head into 2026.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

We have no scheduled debt maturities until 2028. Over time, we'll look to reduce leverage, credit facility leverage, in particular, through a disposition and recycling of long-held, lower-growth assets, where we have the ability to harvest gains and put capital back in to work into more productive strategies and investments. As of 31st December 2025, we had total indebtedness of $1.6 billion at an adjusted weighted average interest rate at 3.28%. Interest rate swap agreements effectively fixed the interest rate on $0.9 billion or 62% of our $1.5 billion of floating rate mortgage debt outstanding.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

As we have done historically, we will continue to evaluate the credit markets for opportunities to hedge or restructure our debt to best position our assets and the portfolio for future growth, while maintaining the highly liquid, low-friction optionality afforded to us through the use of floating-rate agency mortgage financing arrangements. Full year 2026 guidance. For 2026, we are issuing the guidance as follows: Rental income, on the low end, 0%, with a midpoint of 0.9% and a high end of 1.9%. Total revenue, low end of 0.1%, with a midpoint of 1.1% and a high end of 2%. Total expenses, low end of 4.2%, midpoint 3.5%, high end 2.8%.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Same-store NOI, low end -2.5%, midpoint -0.5%, and the high end of 1.5%. Earnings per diluted share, low end -$1.54, midpoint -$1.40, and the high end, -$1.26. Lastly, Core FFO per diluted share, low end $2.42, midpoint $2.57, and at the high end, $2.71. Matt will go into detail on our same-store operating assumptions with his prepared remarks, and the largest driver from our 2025 actuals to 2026 midpoint guidance is interest expense. Again, Matt will provide details on our thoughts regarding upside on the operational front and our same-store operating assumptions. With that, I'll turn it over to Matt for a commentary on the portfolio.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Thank you, Paul. Let me start by diving a bit deeper into our Q4 same-store operational results. Same-store average effective rents closed the year at $1,489 per unit per month, down 10 basis points year-over-year. Six of our 10 same-store markets generated positive year-over-year growth in effective rents, with Tampa leading the way at 3.1%, followed by Las Vegas, South Florida, and Charlotte at 2.1%, 1.6%, and 1.3% respectively. On the occupancy front, the same-store portfolio closed the year at 92.7%, down 195 basis points year-over-year. South Florida took the pole position at 94.5%, with Phoenix, Charlotte, then Raleigh rounding out the top four markets with at least 93% occupancy as of the year-end.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

We saw noteworthy occupancy improvement in Phoenix, in particular, building to 94.5% as the team maintained heavy focus on defense to combat the heavy delivery of new units over the past several quarters. Renewal conversions were 57.4% for the quarter and 54.25% for the full year, with 2026 retention starting off strong, with January over 50% and February month to date is 51.6%. March is projected to finish around 56%. Revenue for the year of five of our 10 same-store markets delivered positive revenue growth, with South Florida, Atlanta, and Raleigh each growing at least 1%. Tampa and Charlotte rounded out the growth markets.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Bad debt continued to trend down, finishing the year at 80 basis points of GPR, a 42% improvement year-over-year, demonstrating both the health of our tenant demographic as well as the efficacy of the centralized screening techniques we have employed to strengthen our portfolio post-COVID. Tampa, Raleigh, and Atlanta saw particular improvements to bad debt, with each reducing losses by more than half the prior year total. Concession utilization has increased from 38 basis points as a percentage of gross potential rent in 2024, up to 69 basis points for the full year in 2025. The most noteworthy increase clearly seen within our Phoenix market at 1.4% of GPR, as our value-add assets were made to contend with the significant market-level occupancy acquisition strategies for merchant builders throughout the year.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Phoenix, Orlando, South Florida, and Atlanta each saw a need for increased concessions, with 1.1%, 0.47%, 0.4%, and 0.36% increase in utilization, respectively. Overall, same-store revenues were down 1% year-over-year. Turning to the expense side, with limited catalysts for revenue growth in 2025, the team paid particular attention to expense management. We're pleased to report a full year decline of 10 basis points to same-store operating expenses. Advances in AI and our strategic focus on its development to streamline workflows across both our resident and property staff experience enabled us to achieve a 3.7% year-over-year decrease in total payroll costs and an 80 basis point decline in office operations expense.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

We see this trend continuing, and I'll have more detail later on this in my prepared remarks. Thoughtful asset management, zero-based budgeting, and our sharp focus on term cost management, and material contract negotiation, kept the lid on repair and maintenance expense inflation growing by just 2.5% for the year. Other favorable results were realized through our real estate tax and insurance strategies, up 1.8% and down 12% for the year, respectively. Our full year same-store NOI margin was a stable 60.8%, while our year-over-year same-store portfolio finished down 1.6%, as Paul mentioned. Notable same-store NOI growth markets for the year were South Florida, Charlotte, and Nashville at 1.4%, 1%, and 90 basis points, respectively.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

On 11th December 2025, NXRT purchased Sedona at Lone Mountain in Las Vegas, Nevada, for $73.25 million. Management identified an opportunistic high-growth acquisition in a long-term market, that the strategy involves deploying accretive value-add capital to normalize economic occupancy and expand operating margins through targeted demand generation, interior and amenity enhancements, lifestyle upgrades, and disciplined execution, ultimately driving asset appreciation and outsized returns. Recent large-scale developments have driven significant expansion, job growth, and residential revitalization in North Las Vegas, which is now the Las Vegas Valley's most prominent industrial market. Over 15 million sq ft of industrial space is currently under construction or planned, supporting the creation of 8,000 new jobs in the market.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

As a reminder, we intend to improve economic occupancy by approximately 900 basis points over four years while upgrading 182 units and installing smart home technology throughout the community, driving a 7.2% NOI CAGR through 2029. Turning to 2026 guidance. As Paul said, we are guiding between 2.5% decline and a 1.5% increase in same-store NOI growth for 2026, with a midpoint projecting a 50 basis points reduction year over year. Our 2026 guidance includes the following assumptions: A 90 basis point rental income growth at the midpoint, forecasting 93.4%-94.1% financial occupancy, with peak occupancy modeled for Q3, with a more normal seasonal demand and performance expectation for the year.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

A negative 30 basis point earn-out from lease trade outs and a gain to lease inversion in 2025. A positive 1.2% market rent growth in 2025, with roughly 40% realized this year, predominantly in the second half of the year. A +40 basis point top-line growth attributable to ROI CapEx spending, as detailed further hereafter. Flat economic occupancy at 91.8% at the midpoint, 30 basis points lower vacancy costs at the midpoint, 93.7 versus 93.4 for the prior year. We're stabilizing bad debt at approximately 80 basis points, with a range of 70 basis points, 90 basis points, down more than 75% from peak pandemic-era payment behavior. Flattish concession utilization at 71 basis points to GPR, heavily weighted in the first half of the year.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

We're assuming 1.1% total revenue growth at the midpoint, driven by modest rental income growth expectations I just went over, and mid-single-digit other income growth. Turning to expense guidance, we're assuming 6.4% controllable expense growth at the midpoint. 80% of this growth is attributable to bulk increased Wi-Fi contract costs that have a direct revenue offset. We're assuming down 1% R&M and turn cost growth, with turnover and interior R&M is expected to decrease $375,000 or 8.4% due to effective cost management and an increased volume of renovations in 2026. We're assuming 2% labor growth. The continuation of our rollout of AI technology and centralization of operations contribute to modest labor growth.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

We see optimism in outperforming our midpoint as we further implement agentic AI strategies and maintenance potting across our markets. We're assuming a 7.4% growth in advertising and marketing ex-expense, just a 10 basis point growth in G&A expense. We're assuming total expense growth of 3.5% at the midpoint, which is a 4.5% increase in the utility expense line item, a 2.1% insurance premium reduction, assuming a 0%-10% renewal on April 1st of this year. For that, our team, including Paul here, we're recently meeting with the markets in both London and New York, we're optimistic we'll achieve another favorable outcome for the program with this 2026 renewal. On the real estate tax expense growth side, we're assuming a positive 4.4% growth.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Real estate taxes make up 31% of the 3.9 total expense increase at the midpoint, and are expecting the band of real estate taxes to increase from 2%-8% across the portfolio. Of course, we will protest and litigate outsized value assessments vigorously throughout the year. On the value add side, we continue to be an internal growth business at our core, and to that end, our guidance includes the following assumptions regarding our value add programs, which remain aligned with our historical 15%-20% ROI targets. We expect to accelerate value add CapEx deployment toward the back half of 2026. Into 2027, as our submarkets see net demand and occupancy pricing power improves for landlords.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

We're assuming approximately 300 full interior upgrades at an average cost of $16,500 per unit, generating a $240 average monthly premium. We're assuming approximately 400 partial interior upgrades at an average cost of $3,500 per unit, generating a $70 average monthly premium. These partial upgrades include varying bespoke additions, such as new stainless steel pro appliances, hard service countertops, updated tub enclosures, and private yards, among other aspects. These partial bespoke rehab initiatives are strategically tailored by property to drive rent growth, where we see opportunities among competing properties. Blended ROI expectations here are the low to mid-twenties, and if market conditions allow, we have identified another 1,500 bespoke upgrades across the portfolio with double-digit ROIs.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Finally, we also plan to install 680 washer dryer installs at an average cost of $1,200 per unit, generating a $54 monthly average premium or a 54% ROI. Now, turning to summarize our outlook for the 2026 year. Basically, we like what we own. We believe affordable residential assets in well-located suburbs and the top job growth and net migration markets in the country will outpace demand over the near term. Our markets are business-friendly, with the continued and persistent tailwind of factors pointing towards Sun Belt growth. You name it, we have it: taxes, weather, business climate, jobs, investment, and physical and digital infrastructure. Indeed, many signs for growth were already pointing to the Sun Belt, and we believe still are. Underpinning our guidance for the year is cautious optimism.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

We think the Sun Belt multifamily market is approaching its long-awaited inflection point. After absorbing the largest supply of waves since the 1980s, with completions peaking at almost 700,000 units in 2024, a 54% increase from 2021 baseline completions, we are optimistic that new lease growth is set to turn positive across most Sun Belt markets in the second half of this year, with sharp acceleration into 2027. Reasons for our belief include persistent structural demand. The cost to own a home is 3x more than to rent an apartment in our markets. A 60% decline in new market rate deliveries from the peak, and construction starts running approximately 70% below their 2022 peak, locking in a multi-year supply trough.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Weighing each NXRT market by unit exposure, the portfolio level to jobs, new construction unit ratio bottomed at approximately one and half jobs to one unit of new delivery in mid-2025, and our entire portfolio is projected back above the historically significant ratio of four jobs to one unit by Q1 of 2027. The recovery is highly asymmetric. Roughly 35% of our portfolio, South Florida, Las Vegas, and Atlanta, is already at or approaching equilibrium, while 44%, including Phoenix and DFW, won't reach that threshold until 2026. For example, South Florida, or 21% of our NOI, has an adjusted BLS non-farm payroll, divided by the CoStar and Yardi delivery ratio of 7.5 jobs to 1 unit, well above the equilibrium. Atlanta, or 12.5% of NOI, just crossed back over five to one.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Given that supply is now relatively muted over the near term, the key variable is whether Sun Belt job growth and net migration can maintain its recent pace. If it can, the supply cliff now baked into every NXRT markets pipeline creates the conditions for a sharp and synchronized recovery in the second half of 2026. Another reason for optimism is the demographic pro-profile of our renter population. We do believe in AI, that it will have a near-term chilling effect over entry-level, white-collar jobs. Today, the NXRT average renter is largely blue collar, 38 years old, with a household income of $90,000 per year. Not really the AI bullseye. Furthermore, advances in health and wellness are adding longevity to the population, creating somewhat of a demographic backstop to demand.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

The 65+ population is growing at 3%-5% across NXRT markets. Harvard JCHS projects the senior renter population to double from 5.8 million households to 12.2 million households by 2030. While obviously a senior housing tailwind, we're starting to see sizable signs of this trend in our own rent rolls. In closing, though the last few years have indeed been difficult, we're optimistic that new lease inflection will happen in the Sun Belt this year for the vast majority of our portfolio. In the meantime, we will continue to do all that we can to utilize technology to become more efficient, drive value-add programs, and ultimately drive value for our tenants and our shareholders. That's all I have for prepared remarks.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Thanks to our teams here at NexPoint and BH for continuing to execute. With that, we'll turn the call over to the operator for questions.

[Operator]

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, press star, then the one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, simply press star one again. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Conor Peaks with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

[Conor Peaks, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Yes. Good morning, everyone. First question around the refurbishment and remodeling. I think you mentioned that in 2026, you're going to do about 400 of those. Then you do, like, 600 washer dryer installation. That's like 1,000 altogether, versus I think in 2025 you did about 1,800 total volume. Just kind of curious why you kind of have the drop, especially as you're talking about, you know, they could still do another 1,500, you know, if market conditions allow.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Yeah. Hey, it's Matt. Good morning. I maybe I didn't come across or you misheard the categories. The plan is to do 300 full upgrades across the portfolio, an additional 400 partials.

[Conor Peaks, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Gotcha.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Roughly, I think that was the delta. We're ending up basically at the same place, about 1,700 units. As, you know, if we're, you know, if what we believe will happen happens, then we'll be able to drive those incremental bespoke upgrades that I mentioned, that can reach up to 1,500 additional units.

[Conor Peaks, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Yeah. That's awesome and helpful. In regards to the interest rate swaps, again, a few years ago, you guys kind of successfully negotiated some of these swaps and kind of came out ahead with some lower rates. Just kind of curious, as you kind of think about 2026, how you kind of see that playing out this time around, especially when again, you do kind of see, you know, rates have been coming down at least to start the year.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Yeah, great question, Conor. This is Paul. We look at 26 and what the swap market's pricing, you know, the a three, five, seven-year swap, and it just isn't taking in what we fully expect on the rate cut side. If you look at the current Fed dot plot, the dispersion is extremely interesting. You have a deeply divided committee with 175 basis points of actual spread, with mirroring at the bottom end at 2% and 1/8%. You have a few multiple hawks that, you know, are pricing in zero rate cuts this year.

[Conor Peaks, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Mm-hmm.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

You had three dissenters this past meeting. It's a really deeply divided, you know, Fed dot plot, which is, you know, affecting swap markets and not really pricing what we truly believe, you know, will be at the end of the year with rate cuts. We're holding tight right now on putting and layering in additional swaps. Again, this can change in a moment's notice. It's a constant daily, you know, recheck and refresh of those rates to see if they're, you know, hitting what we believe to be kind of that 2.5%-3% rate cuts for the year, and, you know, I'm a little more bullish too on that too.

[Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance at NexPoint Residential Trust]

It's just a constant refresh and remodel of our models and when we want to layer in additional swaps for the year to layer in behind the ones that are burning off here in Q3, Q4 this year.

[Conor Peaks, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Gotcha. Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Buck Horne with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

[Buck Horne, Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James]

Hey, good morning, guys. just wondering if you could give us any updates on either January and/or February trends, since quarter end, in terms of new renewal, blended lease rates, just occupancy. Any additional color on how early spring leasing has gone?

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Yeah. Hey, hey, Buck. Good morning. It's Matt. The January new leases were down 7%. Renewals were 1.6%, for a blended -2.6% or 2.7%, or $40 trade out. February is better and getting better and firming. The new leases were down 5.7%, and renewals were a positive 1.7% for a blended negative 1.8%. Again, we're seeing pretty positive trends on the renewal side too, so on the trend.

[Buck Horne, Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James]

Gotcha. Gotcha. Appreciate the color there. I think secondly, my other question was on CapEx and maybe potential CapEx spending for the upcoming year. Looks like the trend in both kind of the recurring and non-recurring maintenance CapEx numbers are still trending above normal or above trendline historically. You know, what were some of the key drivers for that this year? How are you thinking about total CapEx spending for this coming year?

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Yeah. On the maintenance side, I'll kick that to Bonner. Some of the outsized things that we're doing are the bulk Wi-Fi on the resident amenity side, which again, has a direct offset. That's kind of elevated the numbers. Again, the net effect of that is minimal on the income statement. Bonner, do you have anything to add on the maintenance side?

[Bonner McDermett, VP of Asset Management at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Yeah. Our 2026 outlook and relative to, you know, 2025, you know, 2025, we had a little bit of a pickup in interior rehab spending. We had less of the exterior and common area this year, post, you know, refinancing the portfolio, that $2.2 million in 2024. There were some more major projects there. I think outside the Sedona acquisition, there is about $1 million of exterior work to do there. The capitalized rehab should be pretty stable year-over-year. I think the same for the capitalized maintenance, the recurring and non-recurring. You know, we're certainly looking to control those expenses. Understand that's, you know, roughly $30 million for the full year 2025.

[Bonner McDermett, VP of Asset Management at NexPoint Residential Trust]

I think that we've seen some price easing. We're certainly being thoughtful about that as a team. You know, as Matt has mentioned.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

... We kind of have a strategic approach here where, you know, pricing power is going to dictate the volume of renovation output for the year. If we can get healthy trade-outs that justify the spend, we'll see a little bit higher spend, probably more in line with 2025. If we're not getting to the, you know, the trade-offs that we need, the ROI that we want, we may look to skinny that down a bit.

[Buck Horne, Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James]

Gotcha. All right, thanks, guys. Good luck.

[Operator]

Your next question?

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Thanks, Will.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lewis with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

[Michael Lewis, Senior Research Analyst at Truist Securities]

Great. Thank you. Maybe this question kind of logically follows after talking about CapEx. When we subtract CapEx from your AFFO calc, it looks like the dividend isn't covered. I know you recently raised the dividend. This is always a tough. I realize it's a board decision, it's a hard question to answer, but as you look forward to 2026, I mean, do you think the dividend is covered by cash flow? Maybe just kind of remind us of what the dividend policy is.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Yes, the dividend is covered by cash flow, and its target ratio is 65%-75% of core AFFO.

[Michael Lewis, Senior Research Analyst at Truist Securities]

Of AFFO. Okay. I wanted to ask, you know, you gave a lot of great data about supply and demand, really detailed. The occupancy for 4Q was a little lower than we expected. I was wondering if it was lower than you expected, and you know, how you're kind of managing pricing versus occupancy, you know, right now where we are before we kind of get to that inflection whenever it comes?

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Yeah, that's a great question, Michael. It is lower than we expected, but it was somewhat intentional. You know, concession utilization, it has was increased over the, overQ4 and into January. It's abating somewhat in February. We were reluctant to utilize, you know, more than a month of concessions, you know, on, particularly when we, you know, believe pricing power will significantly increase over the year. Also didn't wanna look, you know, look to lock in a negative 12-month, you know, earn in and cannibalize what we believe is a, you know, an inflection year.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

you know, we truly believe that on a deal by deal basis, largely for the vast majority of our portfolio and, you know, not, you know, jumping up and down, happy with 92.7%. The good news is our Q1, guidance, is at 93%. you know, I think we're, you know, I think we're on track to hit that, and, you know, hopefully, we'll capture some of this inflection.

[Michael Lewis, Senior Research Analyst at Truist Securities]

Okay, thank you.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

You got it.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

[Linda Tsai, Senior Analyst at Jefferies]

Hi, thanks for taking my question. In terms of your comment on the senior renter population doubling by 2030, and that you're seeing sizable signs of this trend in your markets, can you delve into this comment more? Then, you know, would you start to amenitize your properties any differently based on an aging population?

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Yes. Again, great question. We're seeing it because our average age is ticking up, and we're just getting, you know, anecdotally, from the sites, especially in, yeah, the Sun Belt and particularly in Florida for, you know, for resident amenities, that cater more to the senior housing population. It's something that we've, you know, I guess, you know, taken notice of as, you know, Welltower and the others catch a really good bid and believe in the, you know, this demographic backstop, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks. We do believe this trend. We think AI is gonna, you know, be positive for GDP growth ultimately, and have, you know, people when, you know, when they live longer and, you know, make more money, they wanna invest in their health and entertainment.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

We are, you know, actively looking to resource our portfolio, designed to, you know, to cater to health and wellness and entertainment. I think that those things will, you know, produce a wider demand funnel than what we've historically been used to in catering to blue collars. There's no reason in our portfolio why we can't attract, you know, in Richardson, you know, Texas, a suburb, well-located suburb outside of Dallas, some empty nesters that wanna, you know, be closer to their kids that go to SMU, for example. I think that that trend will continue, particularly in the Sun Belt, particularly in our markets, and just follow the same net migration trends as we, as we've seen over the last five years.

[Linda Tsai, Senior Analyst at Jefferies]

Are you seeing new renter income from the older population increasing?

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Yes, indeed. That's adding to both of our age and our average household demographics. When we started this company, 11, 12 years ago, our average renter was 28 years old and made $60,000 a year. We're increasingly catering, I think, to a purpose-driven renter. It makes sense. The aging population, they want less yard, they want more amenities. They don't wanna deal with maintenance themselves, and they wanna travel. We like that trend. We're gonna play into it, and I think we have the portfolio to take advantage of it.

[Linda Tsai, Senior Analyst at Jefferies]

Thanks. Just one guidance question. It doesn't seem like your guidance incorporates buybacks. Are you still considering buybacks in 26?

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Yeah, we are. We'll always consider them. I think that, you know, we liked the ability to take that cap rate from a 5.7% going in to a 7.5%, and that was, you know, one-off opportunity. Those opportunities we'll always do. In the meantime, you know, I think if we do, you know, sit at a stock price, you know, sub-30 and a 6.6% implied cap rate, you know, and we stay here for a while, I think I think you'll see us buy back some stock.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

That being said, I mean, I really do believe that the, you know, that this year is the year that, you know, we will inflect, and I think stock prices will follow that upwards in the second half of the year.

[Linda Tsai, Senior Analyst at Jefferies]

Thank you.

[Operator]

That concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to management team for closing remarks.

[Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer at NexPoint Residential Trust]

Thank you for all your time this morning. Appreciate everyone's, again, time and attention, and look forward to speaking to you next quarter.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Bonner McDermett, VP of Asset Management
• Kristen Griffith, Director of Investor Relations
• Matt McGraner, EVP and Chief Investment Officer
• Paul Richards, CFO and EVP-Finance

Analysts

• Buck Horne, Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James
• Conor Peaks, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Linda Tsai, Senior Analyst at Jefferies
• Michael Lewis, Senior Research Analyst at Truist Securities