NYSE:NWN Northwest Natural Gas Q4 2025 Earnings Report $47.08 +0.11 (+0.23%) Closing price 09/25/2026 03:59 PM EasternExtended Trading$47.02 -0.06 (-0.14%) As of 09/25/2026 07:30 PM Eastern Extended trading is trading that happens on electronic markets outside of regular trading hours. This is a fair market value extended hours price provided by Massive. Learn more. ProfileEarnings HistoryForecast Northwest Natural Gas EPS ResultsActual EPS$1.39Consensus EPS $1.36Beat/MissBeat by +$0.03One Year Ago EPS$1.41Northwest Natural Gas Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$394.16 millionExpected Revenue$419.36 millionBeat/MissMissed by -$25.21 millionYoY Revenue Growth+6.30%Northwest Natural Gas Announcement DetailsQuarterQ4 2025Date2/27/2026TimeBefore Market OpensConference Call DateFriday, February 27, 2026Conference Call Time11:00AM ETUpcoming EarningsNorthwest Natural Gas' Q3 2026 earnings is estimated for Wednesday, November 4, 2026, based on past reporting schedules, with a conference call scheduled at 11:00 AM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Conference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Annual Report (10-K)Annual ReportSEC FilingEarnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by Northwest Natural Gas Q4 2025 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrFebruary 27, 2026ShareShareShare This ReportLink copied to clipboard.Key Takeaways Positive Sentiment: Record adjusted EPS of $2.93 in 2025 (top of guidance) and 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95–$3.15; company reaffirms long‑term EPS growth target of 4%–6% (expected to rise to 5%–7% upon MX3 notice to proceed). Positive Sentiment: Announced the MX3 gas storage expansion at Mist (4–5 BCF, ~ $300M capex) with FERC approval and signed 25‑year customer contracts (fixed 12.5% ROE, 50% equity); in service target end of 2029 and expected to be earnings‑accretive once notice to proceed (target by end of 2027). Positive Sentiment: SiEnergy (Texas) delivered 18% organic customer growth in 2025, contributed ~11% of consolidated adj EPS, and now has ~250,000‑meter backlog (≈30% increase); company expects 15%–20% annual customer growth through 2030 and may pursue a Texas rate case. Neutral Sentiment: Company plans $2.6B–$2.9B of CapEx through 2030 (2026 capex $500M–$550M) and intends to fund primarily via operating cash, ~ $150M incremental long‑term debt in 2026, and $40M–$50M of ATM equity while maintaining investment‑grade ratings and ~$590M liquidity at year‑end 2025. Positive Sentiment: Northwest Natural Water outperformed expectations, contributing $0.35/share (≈12% of adj EPS) in 2025, completed seven rate cases, and targets 2%–3% organic customer growth through 2030 with continued rate filings, greenfield opportunities, and a healthy acquisition pipeline. AI Generated. May Contain Errors.Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallNorthwest Natural Gas Q4 202500:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xTranscript SectionsPresentationParticipantsPresentationSkip to Participants Operator00:00:00Hello, welcome to the NW Natural Holding Company Q4 2025 Earnings Call. My name is Harry, I'll be your operator. All lines will be in listen-only mode during management's prepared remarks, after which we will open the call for Q&A. During the presentation, you can enter the queue for questions by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind and would like to exit the queue, please press star followed by two. I will now hand over to Nikki Sparley, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Nikki SparleyDirector of Investor Relations at NW Natural00:00:29Thank you. Welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. In addition to the press release, a supplemental presentation is available on our Investor Relations website at ir.northwestnaturalholdings.com. Following this call, a recording will also be available on our website. As a reminder, some things that will be said this morning contain forward-looking statements. They are based on management's assumptions, which may or may not occur. For a complete list of cautionary statements, refer to the language at the end of our press release. Additionally, our risk factors are provided in our 10-Q and 10-K filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the slides that accompany today's call, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website. Nikki SparleyDirector of Investor Relations at NW Natural00:01:28Please note, our guidance assumes continued customer growth, average weather conditions, and no significant changes in prevailing regulatory policies, mechanisms, or assumed outcomes, or significant changes in local, state, or federal laws, legislation, or regulations. We expect to file our 10-K later today. With us today are Justin Palfreyman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Ray Kaszuba, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Justin will provide highlights from 2025 and a look forward, and Ray will walk through our financial results and guidance. After Justin and Ray's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. With that, I will turn the call over to Justin. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:02:16Thanks, Nikki. Good morning and welcome everyone. We are excited to share our results for the year and our expectations for the future. Northwest Natural Holdings began a new chapter in 2025. We delivered record-adjusted earnings per share at the top of our guidance range, deployed a record amount of capital to support our customers, and reported our strongest organic customer growth in nearly two decades. Those results aren't an accident. They were driven by deliberate, strategic decisions we have made as a company, reflect our management team's focus on execution, and foreshadow the strength of our platform going forward. Over the last few years, we have taken steps to diversify into the water utility business, expand into multiple jurisdictions, and add Texas gas utilities to further enhance our long-term growth prospects. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:03:10What began as a single utility in the Pacific Northwest has evolved into three thriving businesses serving customers across six states. Our 2025 performance is a result of these strategic decisions. We've set the stage for growth while fulfilling our mission of delivering safe, reliable, and affordable service to our growing customer base, and we're still in the early chapters of our success story. As you know, we are in an age of tremendous energy demand. Natural gas plays a critical role in meeting that need, and we're uniquely positioned to address it. That's why we are excited to announce our new MX3 Gas Storage Expansion project in the Pacific Northwest, a project that will enhance regional reliability and capacity, and one that has the potential to drive our long-term earnings growth target to 5%-7% once we receive notice to proceed. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:04:05As our story progresses, we remain focused on disciplined execution and delivering consistent, growing earnings and returns for our shareholders. The momentum we've built positions us for even greater success in the future. Moving to our Northwest Natural Gas utility, which now more than ever, plays a critical role in energy affordability and reliability across Oregon and Washington. As we noted on our last call, we successfully settled our Oregon rate case in 2025, with new rates effective October 31st. In Washington, I'm pleased to report that we've been working collaboratively and productively with parties and have reached settlement in principle, resolving the revenue requirement in the case. We expect to file the multi-party settlement in the coming month. Both cases set Northwest Natural up to recover significant safety and reliability investments in 2026, with a focus on maintaining customer affordability. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:05:04In fact, on average, Northwest Natural residential customers are paying about the same today for their natural gas service as they did 20 years ago. We are also diligently working on dockets with the Oregon Public Utility Commission to complete rulemaking for multi-year rate cases. We believe moving to multi-year rate cases will ultimately provide greater clarity and certainty for both customers and utilities. While the rulemaking process is taking shape, we filed an alternative rate mechanism to recover certain capital investments made in the interim period. The proposal results in a modest 1.5% increase to customer rates, with an effective date of October 31st, 2026. Stepping back, we feel very good about our positioning over the next several years. Historically, our earnings trajectory relied on a single large Oregon rate case every few years, which created uneven growth and limited predictability for customers and shareholders. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:06:04The transition to multi-year rate cases in both Oregon and Washington, combined with the growing earnings profile of our SiEnergy and Water businesses, should create a more balanced and linear consolidated earnings profile year to year, while maintaining rate affordability and predictability. As I mentioned, we are excited to announce that Northwest Natural intends to expand its gas storage facility at Mist. This project, which we call MX3, is the third major gas storage expansion we've undertaken at Mist since its initial construction in 1989. MX3 will add four to five BCF of storage capacity and serve customers across the region. Northwest Natural's gas system is more essential to the region than ever, especially given the heightened focus on reliability and affordability. Our system delivers about 45% more energy than any other Oregon utility, gas or electric, over the course of a year. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:07:05Today, the region's energy system is struggling to reliably meet demand during peak events, and the Pacific Northwest Electric Grid faces a potential 9-GW capacity shortfall by 2030. That's why our storage capabilities are so important. They are uniquely positioned, expandable even beyond MX3, and offer a cost-effective solution to our region's growing energy challenges. Our customers for the MX3 storage expansion see this clearly. They consist of large, investment-grade regional utilities and midstream providers. Once we receive notice to proceed, these customers have agreed to 25-year contracts, underscoring the demand for long-term, affordable energy solutions. We are in the development phase of the project with signed customer agreements, the Energy Facility Siting Council permit secured, FERC approval received, and engineering, procurement, and construction, or EPC, providers identified. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:08:06These new storage services will be regulated by FERC and are expected to provide stable returns with customer agreements that specify a fixed 12.5 return on equity and a 50% equity layer. Our Northwest Natural team has deep experience with the geography of the Mist storage field and its depleted gas reservoirs. We expect to work with major EPC contractors who know our operations well. We are working to obtain the remaining permits, and early-stage engineering and design work is already authorized and underway. The project is estimated to cost approximately $300 million, and we expect the facility to be in service by the end of 2029. I am very excited about this project and the value it provides to the region. MX3 is not included in our long-term guidance today, which we are reaffirming at 4%-6%. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:09:02We do expect the project to have a meaningful, positive impact on earnings growth and plan to include the project in our guidance when we achieve notice to proceed, which would raise our long-term EPS outlook from 4%-6% to 5%-7%. Another important growth engine for Northwest Natural Holdings is SiEnergy, our Texas gas utility. We closed the SiEnergy acquisition in January 2025, and in June, we supplemented our Texas expansion with the acquisition of Pines. Both utilities have been successfully integrated into our business. Texas is one of the most exciting growth drivers in our portfolio. SiEnergy provided 18% organic customer growth in 2025 and contribute 11% of our consolidated adjusted earnings per share. At the same time, SiEnergy posted a sizable increase to its customer backlog, nearing 250,000 future meters. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:10:00That's more than a 30% increase in customer backlog in a year, a testament to SiEnergy's strong relationships with developers and the expected growth in the Texas housing market for years to come. I'm very pleased with SiEnergy's performance in our first year of ownership. We expect our LDC in Texas to continue to scale rapidly and produce 15%-20% customer growth each year through 2030. For 2026, we expect SiEnergy to generate between 10%-15% of our consolidated earnings per share. We are strongly considering filing a general rate case for SiEnergy sometime this year. We will carefully weigh several factors, including customer affordability in our decision. SiEnergy has been supported by exceptionally strong customer growth, and today their rates are among the lowest of our Texas LDC peers. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:10:53In 2025, our water and wastewater utility platform achieved a scale that allowed us to drive business efficiencies through standardized processes and centralization and is well positioned for continued growth. The water segment outperformed our expectations, contributing $0.35 per share or 12% of our consolidated adjusted earnings per share in 2025. Last year, we completed seven rate cases for our water and wastewater utilities and expect to process another five in 2026. We continue to follow a steady regulatory cadence to recover key safety and infrastructure investments while maintaining affordable and predictable customer rates. The water business has a clear runway for growth, supported by organic customer additions, significant greenfield opportunities, and a healthy acquisition pipeline. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:11:45Looking ahead, we expect Water to produce between 2%-3% organic customer growth through 2030 and provide 10%-15% of consolidated EPS in 2026. We expect both SiEnergy and Water to outpace the overall consolidated growth rates of the company in the next five years, further diversifying our customer base and footprint. Confidence in our outlook is driven by strong organic opportunities across all three of our utilities, including 2%-3% consolidated organic customer growth and rate-based growth of 6%-8%. These fundamentals are supported by a record $2.6 billion-$2.9 billion of planned capital expenditures through 2030, underpinned by healthy customer growth and critical safety and reliability spent. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:12:37Importantly, we believe we can achieve our growth targets while keeping our services affordable for customers and maintaining a strong balance sheet with solid investment-grade ratings. For 2026 specifically, we expect another record year for both capital investment and earnings. At the same time, we are focused on returning capital to shareholders. 2025 was the 70th year in a row of dividend growth for Northwest Natural Holdings. We are one of only three companies on the New York Stock Exchange with this impressive record. In 2025, our dividend payout ratio moderated, supported by strong earnings growth across the business. As earnings continue to grow, we expect to deliver steady dividend increases, outpacing our trend in recent years as we target a long-term dividend payout ratio of 55%-65%. In summary, we have built a powerful platform, a strong set of businesses positioned for long-term growth. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:13:37This marks the start of an important new chapter, and I have never been more confident in our strategy, our team, and our future. With that, I will pass it off to Ray for a more detailed update on our financial performance. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:13:50Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. I will start by echoing Justin's sentiment about our strong performance in 2025. This was a year defined by disciplined execution as we delivered record-adjusted earnings per share and are creating a strong platform position for long-term growth. For the full year 2025, we reported record-adjusted earnings per share of $2.93, compared to $2.33 per share for 2024. Earnings growth was fueled by new rates in Oregon, healthy rate-based growth across the business, and continued strong organic customer growth. For our Northwest Natural Gas utility segment, adjusted earnings per share improved $0.45, primarily reflecting new rates in Oregon, partially offset by higher operations and maintenance and depreciation expenses. SiEnergy contributed $0.33 per share for 2025. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:14:45In our first year of ownership, margin and net income were strong, driving results above our expectations of $0.25-$0.30 per share. Our water segment earnings per share increased $0.21 and contributed $0.35 per share to 2025 results, which was also above our expectation of $0.25-$0.30 per share. The key drivers were new rates at our largest water and wastewater utility in Arizona and additional revenues from an acquisition late in 2024. The adjusted net loss of our other segment increased $0.39 per share compared to the same period last year, primarily due to higher interest expense at the holding company. For 2025, we generated approximately $270 million in cash provided by operating activities, about 35% above 2024. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:15:33We invested a record $467 million in our systems related to safety, reliability, and technology. Roughly 75% of those capital expenditures were for Northwest Natural Gas, with about 15% for SiEnergy and 10% deployed for water. We invested nearly $340 million for acquisitions. Cash provided by financing activities was $533 million, including $47 million of equity through our ATM program, which was less than we originally expected. On December 31st, 2025, we had liquidity of approximately $590 million, with significant availability on our lines of credit and cash on hand. Turning to our 2026 guidance. We are initiating 2026 earnings per share guidance of $2.95-$3.15. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:16:24Together, we expect SiEnergy and Northwest Natural Water to contribute approximately 25% of consolidated earnings this year. As Justin mentioned, we are reaffirming our long-term earnings per share growth rate of 4%-6% compounded annually from 2025, adjusted earnings per share through 2030. We are seeing the benefits of our strategy resulting in a more consistent, linear year-over-year earnings trajectory. Our long-term growth target is supported by multiple durable drivers, including healthy consolidated rate-based growth of 6%-8%, including significant investment at Northwest Natural Gas and substantial customer growth from SiEnergy of 15%-20%, and strong 2%-3% organic customer growth at Northwest Natural Water, resulting in a robust consolidated organic customer growth rate of 2%-3%. Our guidance is grounded in projects we have clear line of sight into. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:17:21For 2026, we anticipate consolidated capital expenditures of approximately $500 million-$550 million in 2026. Our five-year CapEx plan has between $2.6 billion and $2.9 billion in investment through 2030, with about 65% related to Northwest Natural Gas Company, approximately 25% related to SiEnergy, and the remaining 10% related to Northwest Natural Water. As Justin mentioned, we are not including the impact of MX3 Gas Storage Expansion Project in our guidance today. Including MX3, our expected long-term EPS growth rate is projected to increase to 5%-7%. Once approved, the project is expected to cost approximately $300 million. MX3 is expected to be earnings accretive and credit positive, improving cash flow quality through long-duration contracted revenue streams. Related to our financing, our balance sheet and funding strategy support our growth. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:18:18We are committed to maintaining strong investment-grade credit ratings across our rated businesses long-term. For 2026, we expect to support our CapEx program through strong cash from operations, incremental net long-term debt of approximately $150 million after considering modest maturities of $160 million, and issuing equity off our ATM in the range of $40 million-$50 million. Over the five-year planning horizon, capital expenditures will be funded largely through operating cash flows, along with a balanced mix of long-term debt and equity. Through 2030, we expect to meet our equity needs through our ATM program. We also remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. With continued earnings growth, we expect dividend growth to be at a higher pace than shareholders have seen recently, while moderating our payout ratio to 55%-65% over the next several years. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:19:13With record-adjusted earnings in 2025 and multiple sustainable growth drivers expected to result in a strong 2026 and beyond, we are excited about the future. With that, we'll open up the line for questions. Operator00:19:27Thank you, Ray. To ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, I would like to exit the queue, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure that your device is unmuted locally. Our first question will be from the line of Chris Ellinghaus with Siebert Williams Shank. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:19:48Hey, everybody. Congratulations on that great year. Given what you've said about potentially raising the guidance or the growth range, where did you guys see yourselves within the existing range, that Mist moves the needle that much? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:20:15Thanks for the question, Chris. This is Justin. Without MX3, we are very comfortable with our 4%-6% long-term EPS growth guidance with the project. Once that achieves notice to proceed, we expect that we will increase that to the 5%-7% that we just described, and we're very comfortable with our current range, with everything else that we've got in our plan. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:20:48When do you expect the notice to proceed, and what is the any hangups that might delay that? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:21:01Yeah. We expect notice to proceed by the end of next year, and we have a lot of milestones that we've achieved with this project already, including our Oregon permit, the Energy Facility Siting Council permit. We've got that completed. We have FERC approval in place. We've got our customer agreements executed, and we are finalizing our EPC contract, so that's one item that we still need to finalize, and then we are also finalizing some local permits before we achieve notice to proceed. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:21:41CE seems to be maybe ahead of the curve, certainly what I was kind of expecting on a pro forma basis. How much ahead do you see it relative to what your expectations were? Are you at a level at this point where maybe the 2026 case is not as critical? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:22:13We've been really pleased with the growth that we've seen at SiEnergy. Despite a slowdown in the housing market in Texas, we had incredible growth this year. We also had record additions to our backlog, which bodes well for the long-term future growth at SiEnergy. I would say we're really pleased with what we're seeing. It's probably exceeded our expectations. However, we have not gone in for a rate case yet, and there are still some remaining items that we want to see on an execution standpoint. We are contemplating a rate case this year and studying that heavily right now. I can say that overall, the growth has been strong. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:22:55It's been a few years since they've been in for a rate case, and there are certain elements of the rate case, that we are evaluating, that could be more beneficial down the road as well, including using the GRIP mechanism in Texas. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:23:11The, if I recall correctly, Texas passed legislation that's constructive. Would that bypass GRIP, or would you stick with that sort of older mechanism? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:23:27We're evaluating that now, Chris, I would expect that, when we do go in for a rate case, that we would look at the GRIP mechanism. The HB 4384, which I think you're referring to, has been helpful, from a, from an earnings perspective, and that is reflected, you know, a little bit in our results even in 2025. I would expect that because of the way the mechanism works for GRIP, that's likely what we would be looking at in a future rate case. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:24:00Okay. given the mechanism that you filed for in Oregon, you know, your guidance suggests, you know, I guess it's kind of silly to look at growth versus 2025, but. Your guidance suggests considerably lower growth, right? Are you anticipating receipt of that mechanism within the guidance? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:24:35Yeah, we are expecting the receipt of that, the rate mechanism here in Oregon as part of that guidance. It is a relatively modest increase to rates, about 1.5%, and that is, you know, effectively just to recover on some capital investments that we are making in this interim period while we're working through the multi-year rate planning. It's actually, we think, beneficial to have this modest incremental increase in the interim so that we avoid a scenario in the future where you have a larger rate shock for customers. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:25:10Sure. One last question. What's the next step for water? You know, you've always had a robust M&A pipeline. Is it expanding regionally, or is it just continuing to do tuck-ins in your existing service areas? What are your thoughts on, you know, what water is up to? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:25:37We're always looking opportunistically at acquisition opportunities that really add long-term shareholder value and would drive more incremental growth. That being said, we are really happy with the platform that we have built. We are in six states now with our water business, and we have some great service territories that have a lot of organic growth embedded in them. We're very focused on executing, both investing in the business, ensuring timely recovery on those investments, and then also looking at expansion. We're expanding our CCNs or our regulated service areas in a number of our jurisdictions across the water business, and we are focused on greenfield growth as well. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:26:21In Texas, in particular, where we've seen incredible growth, with our SiEnergy business, our water platform is a lot smaller in Texas, so we're trying to find ways to combine our business development efforts down there to achieve greater greenfield growth in the future. We always look at tuck-in acquisitions. It's probably a little less of a focus for us right now, given some of the other opportunities that we see to drive shareholder value in the near term and some of the growth that we're excited about in our existing service territories. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:26:58Okay, one more, short question. Mortgage rates have come down a decent amount over the last 12 months. Have you seen some alleviation of the headwinds against house or, you know, new customers, housing development expansion in Texas over the course of 12 months? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:27:27I would say that we saw a slowdown roughly around the middle of 2025 in new housing starts and completions. It does seem that the more recent moderation in interest rates and perhaps other factors has had a little bit of a uptick back the other way, which we think is positive. It's pretty early to tell here in 2026, where that's going. Certainly, a reduction in mortgage rates is helpful. The Texas economy more generally continues to benefit from a lot of growth in terms of industrial and commercial activity in the state. Companies relocating there, announcing new manufacturing facilities, and that drives residential growth as well. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:28:17We are very optimistic long term about the growth in the Texas market, and I think any reduction in interest rates is just gonna be a tailwind around that. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:28:29Great. Thanks for the update. Appreciate it. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:28:33Yep. Thanks, Chris. Operator00:28:36The next question will be from the line of Alex Kania with BTIG. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Alex KaniaManaging Director and Utilities and Power Analyst at BTIG00:28:43Good morning. I have a follow-up question on MX3, or actually two questions on MX3. First is just, for the perspective of thinking about the earnings profile associated with that project, it sounds like it's FERC-regulated projects. Would you be able to, you know, to get AFDC over the course of construction? The second question related to that is, just funding plan, you know, kind of whenever the notice to proceed happens, you add the roughly $300 million of CapEx. Would you still be able to fund any, you know, incremental equity needs through the ATM in that instance, or would you need to think of alternatives there? Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:29:23Good morning, Alex. First on the funding plan, in terms of the profile, because we are still working to dot some I's and cross some T's with our EPC contractors, we're not providing the actual cash flow profile at this point. You are correct that we believe we would be able to fund any equity through normal issuances under our ATM. To your first question, yes, we would also receive AFDC during the construction period. Alex KaniaManaging Director and Utilities and Power Analyst at BTIG00:29:55Great. Just so I heard the previous question, right? The idea the target would be notice to proceed would be you're targeting by the end of next year, end of 2027, right? Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:30:07Correct. Alex KaniaManaging Director and Utilities and Power Analyst at BTIG00:30:08Okay, great. Thank you very much. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:30:12Thanks, Alex. Operator00:30:16As a reminder, please press star one on your telephone keypad for any further questions. The next question will be from the line of Selman Akyol with Stifel. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Selman AkyolManaging Director at Stifel00:30:26Thank you. Good morning. Just a real quick one for me. Very pleased to see the storage expansion. I'm just kind of curious, maybe you can talk about other opportunities that you may be seeing, like that, and one in particular, just thinking about, are you having any conversations, anyone approaching you on sort of behind the meter opportunities? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:30:52Yeah. Thanks, Selman. The opportunities up at Mist, they are long-term in nature and fairly exciting in that we do have other reservoirs that can be developed for additional gas storage beyond MX3. They all have their own characteristics and cost profile and whatnot with them, it is something that we keep an eye on. We do believe there is strong customer demand for this. MX3, all the capacity is spoken for with our existing customers there. Just what you're seeing in the broader energy constraints in the Pacific Northwest region, with one major interstate pipe serving the region, gas storage is uniquely valuable here. I do think there will be opportunities over the long term. It's very premature to comment on any specifics there. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:31:46In terms of behind the meter opportunities, it is something we've been approached by numerous customers looking for, you know, access to, really, consistent, reliable energy in order to site data centers and other types of facilities here. We do evaluate that on a case-by-case basis. There is a storage potential, use case there, but there's nothing that we have today to announce on that front. Selman AkyolManaging Director at Stifel00:32:16Okay. Thank you very much. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:32:20Thank you. Operator00:32:23Thank you. That will conclude our Q&A. I'd like to hand the call to Justin Palfreyman for closing remarks. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:32:30Thank you. Thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning. We really appreciate the questions and your interest in NW Natural Holdings. We're really proud of what we achieved in 2025, and even more excited about the momentum we're carrying into 2026. As you've heard today, we're entering this next chapter with a focus on our strategy, execution, and continuing to grow our utility business. Please don't hesitate to reach out to Nikki with any further questions, and thank you for participating today. Operator00:33:01This concludes the NW Natural Holding Company Q4 2025 earnings call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.Read moreParticipantsAnalystsAlex KaniaManaging Director and Utilities and Power Analyst at BTIGChris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams ShankJustin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW NaturalNikki SparleyDirector of Investor Relations at NW NaturalRay KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW NaturalSelman AkyolManaging Director at StifelPowered by Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Annual report(10-K)Annual report Northwest Natural Gas Earnings HeadlinesSiEnergy Reaches Settlement in Texas General Rate CaseSeptember 23 at 6:32 PM | marketscreener.comMNorthwest Natural Units Reach Settlement Over Texas RatesSeptember 23 at 6:32 PM | finance.yahoo.comOctober 7th dollar deadlineFormer hedge fund manager Larry Benedict called the 2020 market drop and the 2022 downturn before they happened. Now he's pointing to October 7 as a critical date for the US dollar. He says a federal deadline on that day could hit some of the biggest AI stock winners, with gains potentially cut by as much as 40 percent. Benedict is hosting a free briefing to walk through a three-step approach he believes could help investors prepare.September 26 at 1:00 AM | Brownstone Research (Ad)David Hugo Anderson Sells 1,500 Shares of Northwest Natural Gas (NYSE:NWN) StockSeptember 23 at 4:39 AM | americanbankingnews.comNWN Earns AWS Agentic AI Competency, Helping Enterprises Move AI Agents from Pilots to ProductionSeptember 15, 2026 | businesswire.comWall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Weigh In On 3 Utilities Stocks Delivering High-Dividend YieldsSeptember 15, 2026 | benzinga.comSee More Northwest Natural Gas Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Northwest Natural Gas? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Northwest Natural Gas and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Northwest Natural GasNorthwest Natural Gas (NYSE:NWN), operating under Northwest Natural Holding Company, is an energy and utility company headquartered in Portland, Oregon. Its principal business is the distribution of natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers, along with related utility and energy services. Through its regulated natural gas utility, Northwest Natural serves customers in Oregon and southwest Washington. The company also has expanded beyond its traditional gas-distribution operations through businesses involved in water and wastewater services, renewable natural gas and other energy-related activities. The company traces its history to 1859 and has developed into one of the Pacific Northwest’s established natural gas utilities. Northwest Natural is led by President and Chief Executive Officer David H. Anderson.View Northwest Natural Gas ProfileRead more More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat Earnings Tools Today's Earnings Tomorrow's Earnings Next Week's Earnings Upcoming Earnings Calls Earnings Newsletter Earnings Call Transcripts Earnings Beats & Misses Corporate Guidance Earnings Screener Latest Articles MarketBeat Week in Review – 09/21 - 09/25Costco Ends Its Fiscal Year on a High Note, Eyes Big ExpansionCracker Barrel Stock Is Rallying Again, But the Turnaround Still Has a Traffic ProblemDarden Restaurants Serves Up Fresh Catalysts for a Stock Price RallySuper Micro’s Vera Rubin Shipments Put Its AI Infrastructure Advantage to the TestHims & Hers Slides Nearly 7% as Legal Pressure Adds to Its Growing List of RisksBest Buy Is Turning Amazon Fire TV Into a New Advertising Opportunity Upcoming Earnings Micron Technology (9/30/2026)NIKE (10/1/2026)Accenture (10/1/2026)PepsiCo (10/8/2026)Delta Air Lines (10/9/2026)America Movil (10/13/2026)BlackRock (10/13/2026)Citigroup (10/13/2026)The Goldman Sachs Group (10/13/2026)JPMorgan Chase & Co. (10/13/2026) Unlock superior investment research and tools. Sign up for MarketBeat All Access to gain access to MarketBeat's full suite of research tools and reports. Get MarketBeat All Access MarketBeat All Access Features Best-in-Class Portfolio Monitoring Get personalized stock ideas. Compare portfolio to indices. Check stock news, ratings, SEC filings, and more. Stock Ideas and Recommendations See daily stock ideas from top analysts. Receive short-term trading ideas from MarketBeat. Identify trending stocks on social media. Advanced Stock Screeners and Research Tools Use our seven stock screeners to find suitable stocks. Stay informed with MarketBeat's real-time news. Export data to Excel for personal analysis. Sign in to your free account to enjoy these benefits In-depth profiles and analysis for 20,000 public companies. Real-time analyst ratings, insider transactions, earnings data, and more. Our daily ratings and market update email newsletter. Sign in to your free account to enjoy all that MarketBeat has to offer. Sign In Create Account Your Email Address: Email Address Required Your Password: Password Required Log In Email Me a Login Link or Sign in with Facebook Sign in with Google Forgot your password? Your Email Address: Please enter your email address. Please enter a valid email address Choose a Password: Please enter your password. Your password must be at least 8 characters long and contain at least 1 number, 1 letter, and 1 special character. Create My Account (Free) or Sign in with Facebook Sign in with Google By creating a free account, you agree to our terms of service. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
PresentationSkip to Participants Operator00:00:00Hello, welcome to the NW Natural Holding Company Q4 2025 Earnings Call. My name is Harry, I'll be your operator. All lines will be in listen-only mode during management's prepared remarks, after which we will open the call for Q&A. During the presentation, you can enter the queue for questions by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind and would like to exit the queue, please press star followed by two. I will now hand over to Nikki Sparley, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Nikki SparleyDirector of Investor Relations at NW Natural00:00:29Thank you. Welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. In addition to the press release, a supplemental presentation is available on our Investor Relations website at ir.northwestnaturalholdings.com. Following this call, a recording will also be available on our website. As a reminder, some things that will be said this morning contain forward-looking statements. They are based on management's assumptions, which may or may not occur. For a complete list of cautionary statements, refer to the language at the end of our press release. Additionally, our risk factors are provided in our 10-Q and 10-K filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the slides that accompany today's call, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website. Nikki SparleyDirector of Investor Relations at NW Natural00:01:28Please note, our guidance assumes continued customer growth, average weather conditions, and no significant changes in prevailing regulatory policies, mechanisms, or assumed outcomes, or significant changes in local, state, or federal laws, legislation, or regulations. We expect to file our 10-K later today. With us today are Justin Palfreyman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Ray Kaszuba, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Justin will provide highlights from 2025 and a look forward, and Ray will walk through our financial results and guidance. After Justin and Ray's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. With that, I will turn the call over to Justin. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:02:16Thanks, Nikki. Good morning and welcome everyone. We are excited to share our results for the year and our expectations for the future. Northwest Natural Holdings began a new chapter in 2025. We delivered record-adjusted earnings per share at the top of our guidance range, deployed a record amount of capital to support our customers, and reported our strongest organic customer growth in nearly two decades. Those results aren't an accident. They were driven by deliberate, strategic decisions we have made as a company, reflect our management team's focus on execution, and foreshadow the strength of our platform going forward. Over the last few years, we have taken steps to diversify into the water utility business, expand into multiple jurisdictions, and add Texas gas utilities to further enhance our long-term growth prospects. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:03:10What began as a single utility in the Pacific Northwest has evolved into three thriving businesses serving customers across six states. Our 2025 performance is a result of these strategic decisions. We've set the stage for growth while fulfilling our mission of delivering safe, reliable, and affordable service to our growing customer base, and we're still in the early chapters of our success story. As you know, we are in an age of tremendous energy demand. Natural gas plays a critical role in meeting that need, and we're uniquely positioned to address it. That's why we are excited to announce our new MX3 Gas Storage Expansion project in the Pacific Northwest, a project that will enhance regional reliability and capacity, and one that has the potential to drive our long-term earnings growth target to 5%-7% once we receive notice to proceed. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:04:05As our story progresses, we remain focused on disciplined execution and delivering consistent, growing earnings and returns for our shareholders. The momentum we've built positions us for even greater success in the future. Moving to our Northwest Natural Gas utility, which now more than ever, plays a critical role in energy affordability and reliability across Oregon and Washington. As we noted on our last call, we successfully settled our Oregon rate case in 2025, with new rates effective October 31st. In Washington, I'm pleased to report that we've been working collaboratively and productively with parties and have reached settlement in principle, resolving the revenue requirement in the case. We expect to file the multi-party settlement in the coming month. Both cases set Northwest Natural up to recover significant safety and reliability investments in 2026, with a focus on maintaining customer affordability. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:05:04In fact, on average, Northwest Natural residential customers are paying about the same today for their natural gas service as they did 20 years ago. We are also diligently working on dockets with the Oregon Public Utility Commission to complete rulemaking for multi-year rate cases. We believe moving to multi-year rate cases will ultimately provide greater clarity and certainty for both customers and utilities. While the rulemaking process is taking shape, we filed an alternative rate mechanism to recover certain capital investments made in the interim period. The proposal results in a modest 1.5% increase to customer rates, with an effective date of October 31st, 2026. Stepping back, we feel very good about our positioning over the next several years. Historically, our earnings trajectory relied on a single large Oregon rate case every few years, which created uneven growth and limited predictability for customers and shareholders. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:06:04The transition to multi-year rate cases in both Oregon and Washington, combined with the growing earnings profile of our SiEnergy and Water businesses, should create a more balanced and linear consolidated earnings profile year to year, while maintaining rate affordability and predictability. As I mentioned, we are excited to announce that Northwest Natural intends to expand its gas storage facility at Mist. This project, which we call MX3, is the third major gas storage expansion we've undertaken at Mist since its initial construction in 1989. MX3 will add four to five BCF of storage capacity and serve customers across the region. Northwest Natural's gas system is more essential to the region than ever, especially given the heightened focus on reliability and affordability. Our system delivers about 45% more energy than any other Oregon utility, gas or electric, over the course of a year. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:07:05Today, the region's energy system is struggling to reliably meet demand during peak events, and the Pacific Northwest Electric Grid faces a potential 9-GW capacity shortfall by 2030. That's why our storage capabilities are so important. They are uniquely positioned, expandable even beyond MX3, and offer a cost-effective solution to our region's growing energy challenges. Our customers for the MX3 storage expansion see this clearly. They consist of large, investment-grade regional utilities and midstream providers. Once we receive notice to proceed, these customers have agreed to 25-year contracts, underscoring the demand for long-term, affordable energy solutions. We are in the development phase of the project with signed customer agreements, the Energy Facility Siting Council permit secured, FERC approval received, and engineering, procurement, and construction, or EPC, providers identified. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:08:06These new storage services will be regulated by FERC and are expected to provide stable returns with customer agreements that specify a fixed 12.5 return on equity and a 50% equity layer. Our Northwest Natural team has deep experience with the geography of the Mist storage field and its depleted gas reservoirs. We expect to work with major EPC contractors who know our operations well. We are working to obtain the remaining permits, and early-stage engineering and design work is already authorized and underway. The project is estimated to cost approximately $300 million, and we expect the facility to be in service by the end of 2029. I am very excited about this project and the value it provides to the region. MX3 is not included in our long-term guidance today, which we are reaffirming at 4%-6%. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:09:02We do expect the project to have a meaningful, positive impact on earnings growth and plan to include the project in our guidance when we achieve notice to proceed, which would raise our long-term EPS outlook from 4%-6% to 5%-7%. Another important growth engine for Northwest Natural Holdings is SiEnergy, our Texas gas utility. We closed the SiEnergy acquisition in January 2025, and in June, we supplemented our Texas expansion with the acquisition of Pines. Both utilities have been successfully integrated into our business. Texas is one of the most exciting growth drivers in our portfolio. SiEnergy provided 18% organic customer growth in 2025 and contribute 11% of our consolidated adjusted earnings per share. At the same time, SiEnergy posted a sizable increase to its customer backlog, nearing 250,000 future meters. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:10:00That's more than a 30% increase in customer backlog in a year, a testament to SiEnergy's strong relationships with developers and the expected growth in the Texas housing market for years to come. I'm very pleased with SiEnergy's performance in our first year of ownership. We expect our LDC in Texas to continue to scale rapidly and produce 15%-20% customer growth each year through 2030. For 2026, we expect SiEnergy to generate between 10%-15% of our consolidated earnings per share. We are strongly considering filing a general rate case for SiEnergy sometime this year. We will carefully weigh several factors, including customer affordability in our decision. SiEnergy has been supported by exceptionally strong customer growth, and today their rates are among the lowest of our Texas LDC peers. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:10:53In 2025, our water and wastewater utility platform achieved a scale that allowed us to drive business efficiencies through standardized processes and centralization and is well positioned for continued growth. The water segment outperformed our expectations, contributing $0.35 per share or 12% of our consolidated adjusted earnings per share in 2025. Last year, we completed seven rate cases for our water and wastewater utilities and expect to process another five in 2026. We continue to follow a steady regulatory cadence to recover key safety and infrastructure investments while maintaining affordable and predictable customer rates. The water business has a clear runway for growth, supported by organic customer additions, significant greenfield opportunities, and a healthy acquisition pipeline. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:11:45Looking ahead, we expect Water to produce between 2%-3% organic customer growth through 2030 and provide 10%-15% of consolidated EPS in 2026. We expect both SiEnergy and Water to outpace the overall consolidated growth rates of the company in the next five years, further diversifying our customer base and footprint. Confidence in our outlook is driven by strong organic opportunities across all three of our utilities, including 2%-3% consolidated organic customer growth and rate-based growth of 6%-8%. These fundamentals are supported by a record $2.6 billion-$2.9 billion of planned capital expenditures through 2030, underpinned by healthy customer growth and critical safety and reliability spent. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:12:37Importantly, we believe we can achieve our growth targets while keeping our services affordable for customers and maintaining a strong balance sheet with solid investment-grade ratings. For 2026 specifically, we expect another record year for both capital investment and earnings. At the same time, we are focused on returning capital to shareholders. 2025 was the 70th year in a row of dividend growth for Northwest Natural Holdings. We are one of only three companies on the New York Stock Exchange with this impressive record. In 2025, our dividend payout ratio moderated, supported by strong earnings growth across the business. As earnings continue to grow, we expect to deliver steady dividend increases, outpacing our trend in recent years as we target a long-term dividend payout ratio of 55%-65%. In summary, we have built a powerful platform, a strong set of businesses positioned for long-term growth. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:13:37This marks the start of an important new chapter, and I have never been more confident in our strategy, our team, and our future. With that, I will pass it off to Ray for a more detailed update on our financial performance. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:13:50Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. I will start by echoing Justin's sentiment about our strong performance in 2025. This was a year defined by disciplined execution as we delivered record-adjusted earnings per share and are creating a strong platform position for long-term growth. For the full year 2025, we reported record-adjusted earnings per share of $2.93, compared to $2.33 per share for 2024. Earnings growth was fueled by new rates in Oregon, healthy rate-based growth across the business, and continued strong organic customer growth. For our Northwest Natural Gas utility segment, adjusted earnings per share improved $0.45, primarily reflecting new rates in Oregon, partially offset by higher operations and maintenance and depreciation expenses. SiEnergy contributed $0.33 per share for 2025. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:14:45In our first year of ownership, margin and net income were strong, driving results above our expectations of $0.25-$0.30 per share. Our water segment earnings per share increased $0.21 and contributed $0.35 per share to 2025 results, which was also above our expectation of $0.25-$0.30 per share. The key drivers were new rates at our largest water and wastewater utility in Arizona and additional revenues from an acquisition late in 2024. The adjusted net loss of our other segment increased $0.39 per share compared to the same period last year, primarily due to higher interest expense at the holding company. For 2025, we generated approximately $270 million in cash provided by operating activities, about 35% above 2024. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:15:33We invested a record $467 million in our systems related to safety, reliability, and technology. Roughly 75% of those capital expenditures were for Northwest Natural Gas, with about 15% for SiEnergy and 10% deployed for water. We invested nearly $340 million for acquisitions. Cash provided by financing activities was $533 million, including $47 million of equity through our ATM program, which was less than we originally expected. On December 31st, 2025, we had liquidity of approximately $590 million, with significant availability on our lines of credit and cash on hand. Turning to our 2026 guidance. We are initiating 2026 earnings per share guidance of $2.95-$3.15. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:16:24Together, we expect SiEnergy and Northwest Natural Water to contribute approximately 25% of consolidated earnings this year. As Justin mentioned, we are reaffirming our long-term earnings per share growth rate of 4%-6% compounded annually from 2025, adjusted earnings per share through 2030. We are seeing the benefits of our strategy resulting in a more consistent, linear year-over-year earnings trajectory. Our long-term growth target is supported by multiple durable drivers, including healthy consolidated rate-based growth of 6%-8%, including significant investment at Northwest Natural Gas and substantial customer growth from SiEnergy of 15%-20%, and strong 2%-3% organic customer growth at Northwest Natural Water, resulting in a robust consolidated organic customer growth rate of 2%-3%. Our guidance is grounded in projects we have clear line of sight into. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:17:21For 2026, we anticipate consolidated capital expenditures of approximately $500 million-$550 million in 2026. Our five-year CapEx plan has between $2.6 billion and $2.9 billion in investment through 2030, with about 65% related to Northwest Natural Gas Company, approximately 25% related to SiEnergy, and the remaining 10% related to Northwest Natural Water. As Justin mentioned, we are not including the impact of MX3 Gas Storage Expansion Project in our guidance today. Including MX3, our expected long-term EPS growth rate is projected to increase to 5%-7%. Once approved, the project is expected to cost approximately $300 million. MX3 is expected to be earnings accretive and credit positive, improving cash flow quality through long-duration contracted revenue streams. Related to our financing, our balance sheet and funding strategy support our growth. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:18:18We are committed to maintaining strong investment-grade credit ratings across our rated businesses long-term. For 2026, we expect to support our CapEx program through strong cash from operations, incremental net long-term debt of approximately $150 million after considering modest maturities of $160 million, and issuing equity off our ATM in the range of $40 million-$50 million. Over the five-year planning horizon, capital expenditures will be funded largely through operating cash flows, along with a balanced mix of long-term debt and equity. Through 2030, we expect to meet our equity needs through our ATM program. We also remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. With continued earnings growth, we expect dividend growth to be at a higher pace than shareholders have seen recently, while moderating our payout ratio to 55%-65% over the next several years. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:19:13With record-adjusted earnings in 2025 and multiple sustainable growth drivers expected to result in a strong 2026 and beyond, we are excited about the future. With that, we'll open up the line for questions. Operator00:19:27Thank you, Ray. To ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, I would like to exit the queue, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure that your device is unmuted locally. Our first question will be from the line of Chris Ellinghaus with Siebert Williams Shank. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:19:48Hey, everybody. Congratulations on that great year. Given what you've said about potentially raising the guidance or the growth range, where did you guys see yourselves within the existing range, that Mist moves the needle that much? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:20:15Thanks for the question, Chris. This is Justin. Without MX3, we are very comfortable with our 4%-6% long-term EPS growth guidance with the project. Once that achieves notice to proceed, we expect that we will increase that to the 5%-7% that we just described, and we're very comfortable with our current range, with everything else that we've got in our plan. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:20:48When do you expect the notice to proceed, and what is the any hangups that might delay that? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:21:01Yeah. We expect notice to proceed by the end of next year, and we have a lot of milestones that we've achieved with this project already, including our Oregon permit, the Energy Facility Siting Council permit. We've got that completed. We have FERC approval in place. We've got our customer agreements executed, and we are finalizing our EPC contract, so that's one item that we still need to finalize, and then we are also finalizing some local permits before we achieve notice to proceed. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:21:41CE seems to be maybe ahead of the curve, certainly what I was kind of expecting on a pro forma basis. How much ahead do you see it relative to what your expectations were? Are you at a level at this point where maybe the 2026 case is not as critical? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:22:13We've been really pleased with the growth that we've seen at SiEnergy. Despite a slowdown in the housing market in Texas, we had incredible growth this year. We also had record additions to our backlog, which bodes well for the long-term future growth at SiEnergy. I would say we're really pleased with what we're seeing. It's probably exceeded our expectations. However, we have not gone in for a rate case yet, and there are still some remaining items that we want to see on an execution standpoint. We are contemplating a rate case this year and studying that heavily right now. I can say that overall, the growth has been strong. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:22:55It's been a few years since they've been in for a rate case, and there are certain elements of the rate case, that we are evaluating, that could be more beneficial down the road as well, including using the GRIP mechanism in Texas. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:23:11The, if I recall correctly, Texas passed legislation that's constructive. Would that bypass GRIP, or would you stick with that sort of older mechanism? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:23:27We're evaluating that now, Chris, I would expect that, when we do go in for a rate case, that we would look at the GRIP mechanism. The HB 4384, which I think you're referring to, has been helpful, from a, from an earnings perspective, and that is reflected, you know, a little bit in our results even in 2025. I would expect that because of the way the mechanism works for GRIP, that's likely what we would be looking at in a future rate case. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:24:00Okay. given the mechanism that you filed for in Oregon, you know, your guidance suggests, you know, I guess it's kind of silly to look at growth versus 2025, but. Your guidance suggests considerably lower growth, right? Are you anticipating receipt of that mechanism within the guidance? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:24:35Yeah, we are expecting the receipt of that, the rate mechanism here in Oregon as part of that guidance. It is a relatively modest increase to rates, about 1.5%, and that is, you know, effectively just to recover on some capital investments that we are making in this interim period while we're working through the multi-year rate planning. It's actually, we think, beneficial to have this modest incremental increase in the interim so that we avoid a scenario in the future where you have a larger rate shock for customers. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:25:10Sure. One last question. What's the next step for water? You know, you've always had a robust M&A pipeline. Is it expanding regionally, or is it just continuing to do tuck-ins in your existing service areas? What are your thoughts on, you know, what water is up to? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:25:37We're always looking opportunistically at acquisition opportunities that really add long-term shareholder value and would drive more incremental growth. That being said, we are really happy with the platform that we have built. We are in six states now with our water business, and we have some great service territories that have a lot of organic growth embedded in them. We're very focused on executing, both investing in the business, ensuring timely recovery on those investments, and then also looking at expansion. We're expanding our CCNs or our regulated service areas in a number of our jurisdictions across the water business, and we are focused on greenfield growth as well. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:26:21In Texas, in particular, where we've seen incredible growth, with our SiEnergy business, our water platform is a lot smaller in Texas, so we're trying to find ways to combine our business development efforts down there to achieve greater greenfield growth in the future. We always look at tuck-in acquisitions. It's probably a little less of a focus for us right now, given some of the other opportunities that we see to drive shareholder value in the near term and some of the growth that we're excited about in our existing service territories. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:26:58Okay, one more, short question. Mortgage rates have come down a decent amount over the last 12 months. Have you seen some alleviation of the headwinds against house or, you know, new customers, housing development expansion in Texas over the course of 12 months? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:27:27I would say that we saw a slowdown roughly around the middle of 2025 in new housing starts and completions. It does seem that the more recent moderation in interest rates and perhaps other factors has had a little bit of a uptick back the other way, which we think is positive. It's pretty early to tell here in 2026, where that's going. Certainly, a reduction in mortgage rates is helpful. The Texas economy more generally continues to benefit from a lot of growth in terms of industrial and commercial activity in the state. Companies relocating there, announcing new manufacturing facilities, and that drives residential growth as well. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:28:17We are very optimistic long term about the growth in the Texas market, and I think any reduction in interest rates is just gonna be a tailwind around that. Chris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank00:28:29Great. Thanks for the update. Appreciate it. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:28:33Yep. Thanks, Chris. Operator00:28:36The next question will be from the line of Alex Kania with BTIG. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Alex KaniaManaging Director and Utilities and Power Analyst at BTIG00:28:43Good morning. I have a follow-up question on MX3, or actually two questions on MX3. First is just, for the perspective of thinking about the earnings profile associated with that project, it sounds like it's FERC-regulated projects. Would you be able to, you know, to get AFDC over the course of construction? The second question related to that is, just funding plan, you know, kind of whenever the notice to proceed happens, you add the roughly $300 million of CapEx. Would you still be able to fund any, you know, incremental equity needs through the ATM in that instance, or would you need to think of alternatives there? Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:29:23Good morning, Alex. First on the funding plan, in terms of the profile, because we are still working to dot some I's and cross some T's with our EPC contractors, we're not providing the actual cash flow profile at this point. You are correct that we believe we would be able to fund any equity through normal issuances under our ATM. To your first question, yes, we would also receive AFDC during the construction period. Alex KaniaManaging Director and Utilities and Power Analyst at BTIG00:29:55Great. Just so I heard the previous question, right? The idea the target would be notice to proceed would be you're targeting by the end of next year, end of 2027, right? Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:30:07Correct. Alex KaniaManaging Director and Utilities and Power Analyst at BTIG00:30:08Okay, great. Thank you very much. Ray KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW Natural00:30:12Thanks, Alex. Operator00:30:16As a reminder, please press star one on your telephone keypad for any further questions. The next question will be from the line of Selman Akyol with Stifel. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Selman AkyolManaging Director at Stifel00:30:26Thank you. Good morning. Just a real quick one for me. Very pleased to see the storage expansion. I'm just kind of curious, maybe you can talk about other opportunities that you may be seeing, like that, and one in particular, just thinking about, are you having any conversations, anyone approaching you on sort of behind the meter opportunities? Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:30:52Yeah. Thanks, Selman. The opportunities up at Mist, they are long-term in nature and fairly exciting in that we do have other reservoirs that can be developed for additional gas storage beyond MX3. They all have their own characteristics and cost profile and whatnot with them, it is something that we keep an eye on. We do believe there is strong customer demand for this. MX3, all the capacity is spoken for with our existing customers there. Just what you're seeing in the broader energy constraints in the Pacific Northwest region, with one major interstate pipe serving the region, gas storage is uniquely valuable here. I do think there will be opportunities over the long term. It's very premature to comment on any specifics there. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:31:46In terms of behind the meter opportunities, it is something we've been approached by numerous customers looking for, you know, access to, really, consistent, reliable energy in order to site data centers and other types of facilities here. We do evaluate that on a case-by-case basis. There is a storage potential, use case there, but there's nothing that we have today to announce on that front. Selman AkyolManaging Director at Stifel00:32:16Okay. Thank you very much. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:32:20Thank you. Operator00:32:23Thank you. That will conclude our Q&A. I'd like to hand the call to Justin Palfreyman for closing remarks. Justin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW Natural00:32:30Thank you. Thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning. We really appreciate the questions and your interest in NW Natural Holdings. We're really proud of what we achieved in 2025, and even more excited about the momentum we're carrying into 2026. As you've heard today, we're entering this next chapter with a focus on our strategy, execution, and continuing to grow our utility business. Please don't hesitate to reach out to Nikki with any further questions, and thank you for participating today. Operator00:33:01This concludes the NW Natural Holding Company Q4 2025 earnings call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.Read moreParticipantsAnalystsAlex KaniaManaging Director and Utilities and Power Analyst at BTIGChris EllinghausManaging Director and Senior Electric and Natural Gas Utilities and Alternative Energy Equity Analyst at Siebert Williams ShankJustin PalfreymanPresident and CEO at NW NaturalNikki SparleyDirector of Investor Relations at NW NaturalRay KaszubaSVP and CFO at NW NaturalSelman AkyolManaging Director at StifelPowered by