Autoliv Q1 2026 Earnings Report

Autoliv EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.05
• Consensus EPS: $1.84
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.21
• One Year Ago EPS: $2.15

Autoliv Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $2.75 billion
• Expected Revenue: $2.61 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$141.45 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +6.80%

Autoliv Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2026
• Date: 4/18/2026
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Friday, April 17, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 8:00AM ET

Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) is a global supplier of automotive safety systems. The company develops and manufactures products designed to help protect vehicle occupants and other road users, including airbags, seat belts, steering wheels, restraint systems and pedestrian-protection solutions.

Autoliv supplies automotive manufacturers and operates across major vehicle-producing regions, including Europe, the Americas and Asia. Its products are incorporated into vehicles produced by automakers worldwide, and the company works with vehicle manufacturers to develop safety systems for passenger cars and other vehicles.

The company’s roots trace to Sweden in 1953, and it has grown into an international automotive-safety business through organic development and acquisitions. Autoliv is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, and is led by President and Chief Executive Officer Mikael Bratt.

Autoliv Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 sales rose ~7% YoY to nearly $2.8 billion, driven by a strong March and robust Asia performance — Autoliv outperformed global light-vehicle production by over 4 percentage points, with Chinese OEMs outperforming production by more than 40 percentage points and India organic sales up ~38%.
• Negative Sentiment: Gross profit improved (+10%, ~+60 bps margin), but adjusted operating income fell 4% to $245 million and the adjusted operating margin declined to 8.9% (down ~1 ppt), impacted by lower RD&E reimbursements, a prior-year one-time income, and tariff dilution (~40 bps).
• Negative Sentiment: Management now expects a roughly $90 million gross headwind from raw-material inflation in 2026 (up from ~$30 million), which it plans to mitigate primarily via customer price recovery and productivity actions but leaves execution and geopolitical risk.
• Neutral Sentiment: Operating cash flow was negative $76 million in Q1 due to a temporary $349 million working-capital swing (end-of-quarter sales and payables normalization); management expects this to reverse and reiterated full-year operating cash-flow guidance of about $1.2 billion with CapEx below 5% of sales.
• Positive Sentiment: Shareholder returns remain a priority — $0.87 per-share dividend was paid, buybacks were paused for a restricted period but the $2.5 billion authorization and an annual repurchase target of $300–$500 million through 2029 remain in place; the company also launched its first motorcycle and wearable airbags as part of growth beyond its core business.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv Inc. First Quarter 2026 financial results conference call and webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, please press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to First Speaker, Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Anders Trapp, VP of Investor Relations at Autoliv]

Thank you, Razia. Welcome everyone to our first quarter 2026 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt, our Chief Financial Officer, Monika Grama, and I am Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations. During today's earnings call, we will highlight several key areas. Our strong performance in a challenging market environment, our full year guidance, and the potential impact of ongoing and new geopolitical challenges, an update on the latest market developments, and finally an overview of our continued strong shareholder returns. Following the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions. As usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com. Turning to the next slide. We have the Safe Harbor Statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference non-GAAP measures.

[Anders Trapp, VP of Investor Relations at Autoliv]

The reconciliations of historical GAAP to non-GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly earnings release, available on autoliv.com, and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC, and at the end of this presentation. Last, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 P.M. Central European Time, so please follow a limit of two questions per person. I now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. The first quarter exceeded our expectations, driven by strong sales in March. Operational performance was also ahead of plan, supported by solid productivity improvements, partly reflecting reduced call-off volatility. Our positive trend in Asia continued with strong growth in India, South Korea and China. In China, we continued to grow faster than light vehicle production, especially with the Chinese OEMs, outperforming by more than 40 percentage points. In India, we grow sales by 38% organically, reflecting mainly the trend of increased safety content in vehicles in India, but also the continued high level of light vehicle production growth. Underlying profitability improved with gross profit increasing by 10%, although adjusted operating income was slightly lower due to temporary lower RD&E reimbursements and a one-time income in Q1 last year.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

In the quarter, we paid a dividend of $0.87 per share, representing a total payout of $65 million. Buybacks were paused as the company was in a restricted period following multiple filings and the announcement of a new CFO. Our $2.5 billion share repurchase authorization through 2029 remains unchanged, with the ambitious annual share repurchase between $300 million-$500 million. Hostilities in the Persian Gulf had a limited impact this quarter, and we are continuously monitoring any potential wide-reaching impact on the industry. Based on what we know today, we reiterate our full year 2026 guidance of flat organic sales with continued significant outperformance of light vehicle production in both China and India. We continue to expect an adjusted operating margin of around 10.5%-11%.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

This is based on the assumption that light vehicle production will decline by around 1% and that the gross headwind from raw materials is around $90 million. I am also pleased that we introduced our first airbag for motorcycles, as well as our first complete wearable airbag solution for motorcycle riders, building on our long-term strategy of growing outside our traditional core business. Looking now on the next slide. First quarter sales increased by approximately 7% year-over-year, driven by strong outperformance relative to light vehicle production, along with favorable currency effects and tariff related compensations. The adjusted operating income for Q1 decreased by 4% to $245 million, compared to a strong first quarter last year.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

The adjusted operating margin was 8.9%, one percentage point lower than in the same quarter last year. Operating cash flow was a -$76 million, a decrease of $153 million compared to last year. The lower cash flow was mainly driven by a temporary negative working capital impact from strong sales towards the end of the quarter, as well as other temporary effects that are expected to reverse later in the year, and the normalization of payables from year-end. Looking now on the next slide. We continue to deliver broad-based improvements, with particularly strong progress in direct costs. Our positive direct labor productivity trend continues. This is supported by the implementation of our strategic initiatives, including optimization and digitalization. Gross profit increased by $48 million, and the gross margin improved by almost 60 basis points year-over-year.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

RD&E net cost rose year-over-year, primarily on negative currency translation effects and lower engineering income due to timing of specific customer development projects. SG&A costs increased by $16 million, mainly due to negative currency translation effects, higher costs for personnel, and non-recurring costs of $4 million. Looking now on the market development in the first quarter on the next slide. According to S&P Global data from April, global light vehicle production declined by 3.4% in the first quarter, slightly better than earlier expectations. The modestly stronger than expected outcome was mainly supported by Europe in March and rest of Asia. The decline in global light vehicle production was primarily driven by China. India contributed positively to global light vehicle production performance, benefiting from substantially lower taxes on new vehicle purchases.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

As an effect of the declining light vehicle production in China in the quarter, the global regional light vehicle production mix was approximately 1.5 percentage points favorable. During the quarter, volatility improved despite higher than expected call-offs in March. We will talk about the market development more in detail later in the presentation. Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales were almost $2.8 billion, the highest for a first quarter yet. This was around $175 million higher than last year, mainly driven by $154 million positive currency translation effect and $14 million from higher tariff related compensation. Excluding currencies, our organic sales grew $21 million or by 80 basis points, including tariff cost compensation. Based on the latest light vehicle production data from S&P Global, we outperformed the market by over 4 percentage points globally.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Our outperformance was significant in China and rest of Asia. In rest of Asia, we outperformed the market by 7 percentage points, driven by continued strong sales growth in India, where we outperformed by close to 30 percentage points. South Korea and the Asian sub-region also contributed to the outperformance, partly offset by Japan. In China, we outperformed overall with 15 percentage points, mainly driven by sales to Chinese OEMs that outperformed light vehicle production with over 40 percentage points. Despite light vehicle production decline in China increased its share of our sales to 18% versus 17% a year ago. Asia, excluding China, accounted for 20%, Americas for 31%, and Europe for 30%. On the next slide, we will look more on our growing business in India. Autoliv is rapidly expanding its business in India, securing its market leadership.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

India now represents almost 6% of Autoliv's global sales, which is almost triple what it was just three years ago. Fueled by regulatory focus and rising consumer demand for safety content in vehicles has increased by around 20% annually for the past two years. In India, Autoliv operates five manufacturing plants, a technical center, and a global support engineering center with more than 6,000 associates in total. To further strengthen our footprint, Autoliv recently opened a new inflator plant to meet growing demand for airbags from both India and other Asian markets. Autoliv's largest customers in India, including Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Mahindra, and others, reflecting the company's strong position among leading vehicle manufacturers in the country. Looking now on the next slide. The first quarter of 2026 saw a relatively high number of new launches, primarily in China, with both Chinese and other OEMs.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

These new China launches reflect strong momentum for Autoliv in this important market. Higher content per vehicle is driven by front center airbags on many of these new vehicles. In terms of Autoliv's sales potential, the Nissan Versa is the most significant in the quarter. Here you also see the Yamaha Tricity 300 commuter scooter. For rest of 2026, we expect a high number of new product launches, mainly driven by Chinese OEMs, offsetting fewer launches in America and Europe. Let's continue with the next slide. Before I'm moving on, I'd like to introduce our new CFO, Monika Grama. Monika joined Autoliv in 2009 and has been instrumental in strengthening the EMEA division during a particular challenging period for the automotive industry. I am very pleased to welcome her to the executive management team and looking forward to her continued contributions in her new role.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

I will now hand it over to Monika.

[Monika Grama, CFO at Autoliv]

Thank you, Mikael. I will talk about the financials more in detail on the next slide. Turning to the next slide. This slide highlights our key figures for the first quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter of 2025. Our net sales were almost $2.8 billion, representing a 7% increase. Gross profit increased by $48 million, and gross margin increased by almost 60 basis points compared to the prior year. The drivers behind the gross profit improvement were mainly positive FX translation effects, improved operational efficiency with lower cost for labor, as well as positive effects from higher sales. This was partly offset by increased tariff costs. The adjusted operating income decreased from $255 million to $245 million, and the adjusted operating margin decreased from 9.9% to 8.9%.

[Monika Grama, CFO at Autoliv]

The reported operating income of $237 million was $8 million lower, mainly due to capacity alignment activities. The adjusted earnings per share diluted decreased by $0.10. The main drivers were $0.09 from lower operating income, $0.04 from financial and non-operating items, $0.04 from taxes, partly offset by $0.07 from lower number of outstanding shares diluted. Our adjusted return on capital employed was a solid 23%, and our adjusted return on equity was 24%. We paid a dividend of $0.87 per share in the quarter. Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the first quarter of 2026, our adjusted operating income decreased by $10 million. Operations contributed $28 million positively, primarily driven by higher organic sales and the successful execution of operational improvement initiatives supported by better call-off stability.

[Monika Grama, CFO at Autoliv]

Excluding the $13 million from FX translation effects, costs for RD&E net and SG&A increased by $28 million, driven by lower RD&E reimbursement of $9 million due to timing and the non-recurring cost of $4 million. During the quarter, we recovered approximately 70% of our U.S. tariff costs. This recovery rate was lower than last year due to delays from the implementation of the new U.S. administration's Import Adjustment Offset Program. We expect, though, most of the outstanding tariffs to be recovered later in the year. The combination of unrecovered tariffs and the dilutive effect of the recovered portion resulted in a negative impact of around 40 basis points on our operating margin in the quarter. Looking now at cash flow on the next slide. Operating cash flow for the first quarter was -$76 million, a decrease of $153 million year-over-year.

[Monika Grama, CFO at Autoliv]

This change was primarily due to a negative working capital effect of $349 million, compared with a negative impact of $179 million in the prior year. The working capital effect was largely driven by higher end-of-quarter sales, which is a good reason, other temporary effects that are expected to reverse later in the year, and the normalization of payables from the year-end 2025. Capital expenditures net for the quarter decreased by $9 million. Capital expenditures net in relation to sales was 3% versus 3.6% a year earlier. The lower level of capital expenditure net is mainly related to lower footprint optimization, less capacity expansion, and timing effects. Pre-operating cash flow for the quarter was -$159 million compared to -$16 million in the same period in the prior year due to lower operating cash flow, partly offset by lower CapEx net.

[Monika Grama, CFO at Autoliv]

The cash conversion for the last 12 months, defined as free operating cash flow in relation to net income, was 83%, exceeding our target of at least 80%. Now looking on our cash flow and shareholder returns on the next slide. Our cash flow generation has proven resilient across economic cycles. As shown on this slide, we have consistently delivered positive operating and free operating cash flow through major disruptions, such as the financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and periods of structural change. Cash generation has strengthened in recent years, reaching record levels. This resilience reflects disciplined working capital management, a flexible cost base, and limited capital intensity of our operations, supporting higher asset return, durable long-term growth, and shareholder value creation. Over time, we have delivered strong shareholder returns.

[Monika Grama, CFO at Autoliv]

What is not reflected in the graph is the spinoff of Veoneer in 2018 to shareholders, which valued Veoneer at approximately $3 billion at the time. Our capital allocation strategy aims at annual share repurchase of $300 million-$500 million through 2029, supported by an attractive and growing quarterly dividend. Since initiating the previous stock repurchase program in 2022, we have reduced the number of outstanding shares by almost 15%. When executing the program, we consider several factors, including our balance sheet, cash flow outlook, credit rating, and general business conditions, as well as the debt leverage ratio. We always try to balance what is best for our shareholders in both the short and the long term. Now looking at the results of our efficient capital utilization on the next slide.

[Monika Grama, CFO at Autoliv]

Over the years, Autoliv has demonstrated its ability to consistently deliver strong return on capital employed, also in periods of challenging market environments, reflecting a disciplined capital management. The high and stable return on capital employed is further supported by scale advantages and the limited exposure to capital-intensive investments, such as powertrains. Returns have improved since the COVID period, driven by margin expansion and tight control of working capital and CapEx. Now looking at our debt leverage ratio development on the next slide. Autoliv's balanced leverage strategy reflects our prudent financial management, enabling resilience, innovation, and the sustained stakeholder value over time. Our leverage ratio increased from 1.1 to 1.3 during the quarter. Our net debt increased by around $200 million in the quarter, while the 12-month trailing adjusted EBITDA was virtually unchanged. On to the next slide. I will now hand it back to Mikael.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Thank you, Monika. I will talk about the outlook for 2026 more in detail on the next few slides. Turning to the next slide. Overall, S&P Global expects global light vehicle production in 2026 to decline by 2% versus 2025, a 1.5 percentage point downward revision from January. The downgrade is largely attributable to production cuts in the Middle East, as well as in other regions impacted by the hostilities. European light vehicle production is expected to decline by almost 2%, driven by affordability challenges and rising imports from China. In North America, S&P forecasts light vehicle production to decline by 2% in 2026, despite relatively healthy dealer inventory levels. In China, light vehicle production is expected to decline by 3% due to weaker domestic demand, despite continued export strength.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Japan and South Korea light vehicle production are expected to decline by 2% and 3%, respectively, reflecting softer domestic demand and a more challenging export environment. India's light vehicle production is expected to increase by 6%, driven by a reduction in purchase taxes on new vehicles, which disproportionately benefits smaller and lower-priced models. However, heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the hostilities around the Persian Gulf adds risk to energy markets, consumer confidence, and overall industry volumes. Now looking on raw materials development on the next slide. We are closely monitoring the potential industry-wide impact of geopolitical developments in and around the Persian Gulf on supply chains, raw material prices, and overall demand for new vehicles. The situation may lead to more challenging raw material environment, and we are evaluating multiple scenarios based on our current assessment.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

We primarily purchase components rather than raw materials, which inherently reduces our direct exposure to commodity price volatility. That said, geopolitical developments in the Persian Gulf can still affect certain input categories, most notably textiles and plastics, but also indirectly aluminum, helium, and steel. For materials such as nylon, resin, and plastics, pricing generally follows oil prices over time. Historically, we see a lag of approximately three to six months between movements in spot oil prices and the impact on the purchase prices. For the full year 2026, our current assessment is for around $90 million gross impact from higher raw material pricing compared to the previous assessment of around $30 million a quarter ago. From a mitigation standpoint, we continue to execute on productivity and cost reduction initiatives to offset these costs.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Customer compensation mechanisms are in place and are expected to offset a meaningful portion of the cost impact, although there is typically a timing delay between cost increases and recovery. Now looking on the updated full year guidance on the next slide. This slide shows our full year guidance, which excludes effects from capacity alignment and antitrust related matters. It is based on no material changes to tariffs or trade restrictions that are in effect as of April 10, 2026, as well as no significant changes in the macroeconomic environment or changes in customer call-off volatility or significant supply chain disruption. We expect to outperform light vehicle production by around 1 percentage point, as our organic sales is expected to be flat, while global light vehicle production is expected to decline by 1%. The net currency translation effects on sales is expected to be around 3% +.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 10.5%-11%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around $1.2 billion. We expect CapEx to be below 5% of sales. Our positive cash flow and strong balance sheet supports our continued commitment to a high level of shareholder returns, and we expect a tax rate of around 28%. Looking on the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors. I now hand it back to Raza.

[Operator]

Thank you, sir. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Once again, please press star one one to ask a question. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. We are now going to proceed with our first question. The question comes from the line of Tom Narayan from RBC. Please ask your question.

[Tom Narayan, Global Autos Lead Equity Analyst at RBC]

Hi. Yes. Tom Narayan, RBC. Thanks for taking the questions and welcome, Monika. The first question I have is on the China strength, and I know you called out higher penetration of domestic OEMs. I would think you also benefited from the relative outperformance of non-domestics, which I think come at higher margins than domestics for you guys. Just curious if that's true, and then if your overall China penetration increase year-over-year boosted your margins, and how sustainable that is as the year progresses. I have a follow-up.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Yeah. As you know, we don't disclose a breakdown of our earnings profile per customer or regions or countries or anything like that. We have a total portfolio of a large number of programs, and that's the combined result of that we are presenting here. It's not a secret that we have focused on our Chinese OEMs as they are growing in their share of the total market. Our focus here is to have a market share of around 45% of the global light vehicle production. That's what we are happy to report, that we continue to build on that strategy here, and it served us well in the quarter here. Of course, we are working hard to improve our earnings profile across the board here in general.

[Tom Narayan, Global Autos Lead Equity Analyst at RBC]

Okay. For my follow-up, it sounds like the tariff policy is as of April 10th in your guidance. I know April 6th there was the rule change on the metal side. As it relates to that Section 232 rule changes, just wondering, the current USMCA exemption that you enjoy, is that still the case? This only applies, I think, on the metal side, where I guess the OEMs have that MSRP offset. Is that your understanding that it doesn't meaningfully impact?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

I think in general, when it comes to the tariffs, I think it's a lot of moving pieces there. I think for us, as automotive here, it's to large degree unchanged. I mean, for us, it's mainly the USMCA structure that is relevant and that will have no changes at this point. That is what we are looking at. The rule changes that you saw lately here, it's a minor part of our total exposure and not meaningful in this context. Of course, we follow that as well here. For us, it's all about the USMCA, I would say. That's the key thing here. No changes there.

[Tom Narayan, Global Autos Lead Equity Analyst at RBC]

Understood. Thank you. I'll turn it over.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Thank you.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question comes from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo. Please ask your question.

[Colin Langan, Automotive and Mobility Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Oh, great. Thanks for taking my questions. One, just trying to clarify, maybe I misunderstood. S&P is down 2, but your guide is down 1. Is based on down production at 1, is that just a mix issue? Why not in line with S&P? Just as a lot of people are worried about, if you read even the S&P comments, if the Strait doesn't open, there's more downside. Can you just remind us on the decrementals if production actually continues to trend downwards?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Yeah, I think as you saw when we gave our full year guidance in connection with the Q4 earnings release, we had -1 and S&P had -0.5. At that point it is more cautious. I think what we have seen now and the change that came yesterday is within the, let's say, the margin of error here in this very, I would say, volatile environment here. Of course, we are fully aware of what's going on in the Straits around the Persian Gulf, as we mentioned in the presentation here. At this point, we have no indications, no signals, nothing that indicates something else than what we have in our outlook here. I think it can definitely also change to the better here. I think there's a lot of different scenarios you can play up here, and I think we feel comfortable with our outlook here.

[Colin Langan, Automotive and Mobility Analyst at Wells Fargo]

If it gets worse, what are the decrementals that we should expect?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Yeah, of course. I mean, as I said, we follow this and are ready to take any measurements that is necessary. I mean, if we will see a dramatic change to this outlook, we are of course ready to make necessary adjustments. I think we have proven that in the past that we have a high degree of flexibility in our system and a strong team here to execute on those changes. I think it's all about staying close to the development as we always do here.

[Colin Langan, Automotive and Mobility Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Okay. Just to follow up on, can you get any color on the drivers of the increase in raw material cost? Any risk of shortfalls, particularly, I've heard some concerns around nylon that some of the butadiene plants are apparently in short supply, and that's an input into nylon. Is there any concern that we actually can't get supply of some of the raw materials like nylon, and are there alternatives to swapping if there are shortages?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

No, I think, to your first question there, what's the main drivers here? It's really the oil price that is the main driver for us at this point in time, as it goes into many different types of products. That's what we're following. That is what causing the, I would say, higher estimate that we have here now of $90 million instead of the $30 million we had at the beginning of the year. With that said, we are definitely here focusing on making sure that that becomes lower than what we have said here to manage the situation here. We'll see, and we have offset activities, which I explained before. When it comes to the availability, we don't really see at this point any main concerns around that.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

I think we of course have our supply chain team on high alert here, and they're working actively to secure supply. I would say, so far so good. Of course, we realize here that if we will have real shortages of oil, et cetera here, we have, of course, different activities around that. I feel that we have that under control. Just back to your question there on the sensitivity here, if we have a drop in demand way outside our own expectations here at this point in time. I just wanted to remind you here about our normal decrementals we normally reference to, which is between 20% and 30% leverage if we have a dramatic drop in sales here going forward. I just wanted to mention that related to that question.

[Colin Langan, Automotive and Mobility Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Got it. Very helpful. All right, thanks for taking my questions.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Thank you.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question comes from the line of Mattias Holmberg from DNB Carnegie. Please ask your question.

[Mattias Holmberg, Equity Research Analyst at DNB Carnegie]

Thank you. I'm interested in the outperformance, given that you have 4% here in Q1 and still guide for just 1% for the full year. Am I off by thinking that you are, aiming is perhaps not the right word, but you see no outperformance for the balance of the year? Or what are the moving parts and what would sort of result in this lost momentum? Is it the pull forward from the strength you saw in March that is going to reverse, or I'm just trying to understand the dynamics here, please.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

No, of course, when we give the full year guidance here, we take into consideration also the mix development throughout the year. Some quarters it's a little bit in your favor and some it's in the reverse. What we indicated here in the first quarter, we had a positive mix effect of roughly 1.5 percentage point here. Yeah, we still believe that with the development for the year here that we have for different regions, that's to the best of our knowledge that we should end up where we have indicated here.

[Mattias Holmberg, Equity Research Analyst at DNB Carnegie]

A quick follow-up on the raw materials. With the $90 million gross headwind, is it roughly evenly phased, do you think, over the next three quarters, or is there any quarter in particular that will be more severely impacted? Also, have you made any assumptions on what the net impact will be after mitigations sort of embedded in your margin guidance?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

No, the net effect is included in our guidance here. What we're saying here is that the gross exposure we have here should be mitigated either by price increases and internal, let's say, self-help through other activities here, but majority is price increases here. It fits within the guidance there.[crosstalk] When it comes to the sequential development here, I don't know, Monika, if there is anything you would like to add there, but still we're not guiding per quarter, as you know.

[Mattias Holmberg, Equity Research Analyst at DNB Carnegie]

Maybe just a clarification. Do you assume full recovery of those 90% gross?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

As I said, we will have a majority through the price mechanisms that we have, and the rest should be offset by internal activities to the largest extent possible. Once again, the net effect is included in our full-year guidance. I have no more granular numbers to give you other than that.

[Mattias Holmberg, Equity Research Analyst at DNB Carnegie]

That's clear. Thank you.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Thank you.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question comes from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken. Please ask your question.

[Hampus Engellau, Global Equity Research Analyst at Handelsbanken]

Thank you very much. Two questions from me. First one is on customer call-offs. If I heard you right, you said that customer call-offs were more stable during the quarter. I'm just thinking, is this some one-off here, or should we expect this trend to continue moving into second quarter? I'll take the question one by one, sir.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Okay. Thank you, Hampus. No, as we said here, the call-off stability was around 95%, which is what it was during last year at the good times. We had some deterioration towards the end of Q4, where we saw some customers pulling the brakes on to reduce inventory at the year-end. It normalized again in the beginning of the quarter here. Of course, with the increased sales in March here, that also helps to stabilize the situation when you have a little bit of a, let's say, upward trend there. We still believe that it should continue to improve under normal circumstances. I think it all depends now on what happens with the supply chains. If we have a positive scenario, meaning that we come to some kind of resolutions here around the Middle East situation and the value chains are connected to that, or not.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Because it's the disturbances in the value chain here that creates a lot of the volatility, I would say, at this point in time. Long term, it's definitely expectations that it should continue to improve. With the two weeks into the first quarter, I would say it still holds, and we have a stable situation here. Yeah, we will of course follow it closely here. So far so good.

[Hampus Engellau, Global Equity Research Analyst at Handelsbanken]

Fair enough. Maybe when you came out of Q4, one of the main takes was that there were much lower new product model launches on, especially on the U.S. side, I guess, partly also in Europe. It seems like China has had more new model launches than you maybe expected. Given the short lead times we have between a new model and launching a new model in China, can you maybe add some flavor on that one? Are you surprised about that? We also hear Volkswagen is clearly stepping up on the BEV side, talking about one new model each second week for the remainder of this year, for next year. If you could maybe shed some light on that?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Yeah. I wouldn't say that we have any surprises when it comes to new launches because they are something that you need to be, of course, well prepared and tuned and everything else ready for. I think we have a very good visibility of that in general. We know, during last year that we had, not connected to China, but connected to the global situation here, a lot of reshuffling in terms of launches of new platforms, especially around EVs in the U.S. and Europe here that changed. That doesn't really impact the short term, I would say here, and not in China. I think, long story short, no real surprises around that.

[Hampus Engellau, Global Equity Research Analyst at Handelsbanken]

I was more maybe referring to the timing in the launch that maybe it was put earlier. I'm sure you know what you're-

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

No.

[Hampus Engellau, Global Equity Research Analyst at Handelsbanken]

It's not?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Not really. No.

[Hampus Engellau, Global Equity Research Analyst at Handelsbanken]

Okay. Got it.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question's come from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfe Research. Please ask your question.

[Emmanuel Rosner, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst of Autos, Parts and Auto Technology at Wolfe Research]

Great. Thank you so much. My first question is around the outperformance versus the industry, which was solid in the first quarter. I wanted to follow up a little bit about what you're assuming for the rest of the year, because it would be basically some sort of deceleration versus this Q1 performance, and you flagged the mix was 1.5+in Q1. What are you expecting for mix on a full year over the rest of the year? And what would be the drivers of sort of limited or minimal growth of the market, compared to what we've seen in Q1?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Yeah. Thank you. No, as I said before here, the mix in each quarter has, of course, a meaningful impact on it. This first quarter, we had 1.5 percentage points coming from positive mix. When we look at the full year here, and basically, we have guided them for a 1% outperformance, considering a flat organic and a -1% light vehicle production. It's based on a neutral mix compared to 2025. We have no tailwind or headwind coming from mix in that assumption. That's of course the best estimate we have now. You don't know the mix for 100% until you have gone through here. We still believe that that's the most likely scenario with what we see here on a light vehicle production per regions, et cetera, looking ahead.

[Emmanuel Rosner, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst of Autos, Parts and Auto Technology at Wolfe Research]

Okay. With a lot of moving pieces around raw mats and tariffs, et cetera. I was hoping you could just refresh for us the main drivers of margin expansion for this year. If we're thinking about 2025 as a starting point, and then your reiterated margin guidance for 2026, what are some of the big buckets of margin improvement now, basically mark to market, with a similar sort of limited organic growth?

[Monika Grama, CFO at Autoliv]

I will start with the negatives that you could already observe in our messages. We have a negative impact from raw materials and from inflationary impact on SG&A and RD&E, that we more than plan to offset with operations and raw material mitigations. Now we are tapping into again structural cost savings and our known resilience in challenging times. We are going to tap into as well customer compensations to partly offset or to meaningfully offset the raw material headwinds that we mentioned. In addition to that, we benefit from positive FX impact across the board that was already visible to some extent in our Q1 results.

[Emmanuel Rosner, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst of Autos, Parts and Auto Technology at Wolfe Research]

Okay. You're obviously planning for a decent amount of margin expansion. You mentioned headwinds that would be largely offset and then a bit of FX. What are some of the main positives?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

The main positive is really around structural cost savings that is coming through, and it is in the operational productivity efforts here where we talk about optimization, digitalization, et cetera, to drive efficiency through the value chain. It continues to be very much the same drivers, you could say, for our margin expansion as we go ahead. As Monika mentioned here, we have short-term headwinds expectations on some headwinds around raw materials, which we are planning to offset also through price compensation and additional cost reductions there. Then also some positives on the FX.

[Emmanuel Rosner, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst of Autos, Parts and Auto Technology at Wolfe Research]

Understood. Thank you.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question comes from the line of Jose Asumendi from JPMorgan. Please ask your question.

[Jose Asumendi, Head of European Automotive Research at JPMorgan]

Thank you. Hi, Mikael. Welcome, Monika. Couple of questions, please. Mikael, can you comment on Chinese OEMs, both in China and in Europe, and how you could be benefiting in the coming quarters from the product launches? Can you help us a bit more on which customers should we be keeping an eye on in terms of the acceleration in China to Q2 to Q4 or on a one-year view? Also when it comes to Europe, can you share a bit more how you can benefit also from the, what we see, right, Chinese OEMs taking double-digit market share in the European market. How is that also going to benefit the utilization of your plants? Question two please for Monika, if you can comment a bit on working capital and working capital assumptions for the remaining of the year. Thank you.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Very good. Thank you. Maybe I start on the sales side and then Monika takes the working capital there. As you know, we work broadly with the Chinese OEMs and, I would say we are on all the different platforms, OEMs that you see exporting out of China in different shape and forms. There is two exceptions which have their own captive solution, and that's SAIC and BYD. BYD are still very important customer for us, which we are working with. When you look at the development of Chinese OEMs, I would say we are present in a broad base there. I think the outperformance numbers in the quarter here speaks for itself, where we had 40 percentage points outperformance with the Chinese OEMs. I think that's really strong and good number there.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

When we see them coming to Europe, they are normally, I would say, very high level of CPV in those vehicles. Yeah, it mirrors the position we have in China there, I would say. We have seen not so much local production yet of the Chinese OEMs. What I can say, and I think we said also in the connection with the Q4, that we won the first tender that was issued in Europe by Chinese OEM. I would say that we are very happy about that and proud that we were able to meet this OEM's expectations here in Europe. I think we are in a good position there to utilize our European footprint here as well for our Chinese customers.

[Jose Asumendi, Head of European Automotive Research at JPMorgan]

Mikael, before we move into working capital, just a quick one. The last time we met Fabien and Sng, we discussed the new R&D center in Wuhan. Is that R&D center, are you getting incremental order backlog from that new R&D center or is that yet to come in your business?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

No, I think it helps us to strengthen our presence in China and our closeness to our customers. Over the years, for a long period, our strategy has been to have RD&E centers near our customers and work closely with them early on in the different projects. This is a step in order to continue to strengthen our presence in China with our customers here by offering a better footprint for our customers here through a second tech center. I think it's a part of the overall strategy and focus we have.

[Monika Grama, CFO at Autoliv]

Continuing with the working capital. We mentioned that cash flow in Q1 was negatively impacted by $349 million increase in operating working capital, mainly due to temporary impacts. The increase in the receivables, other one-timers that have as well temporary effects, and then the payables that are more normalized compared to the year end. Our full-year cash flow expectations are unchanged, with the operating cash flow expected at around $1.2 billion and CapEx below 5%. That implies our expectations that we are normalizing the working capital assumptions, and we are continuing to execute on our working capital improvement program. There are still some actions outstanding that will deliver results through the year.

[Jose Asumendi, Head of European Automotive Research at JPMorgan]

Okay, thanks.

[Operator]

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question comes from the line of Jairam Nathan from Daiwa Capital Markets. Please ask a question.

[Jairam Nathan, Executive Director at Daiwa Capital Markets]

Hi. Thanks for taking my question here. Just going back to your long-term revenue CAGR of 4%-6%. The 1%-2% that was coming from new markets, I know you talked about it being not in the short term. With the motorcycle product introduction, if you could just talk about what that does to the expectation here. Does that change the expectation here?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

No, it doesn't really change the expectation. I would say this is a part of the expectation, so to speak, that we have stated here that the 4%-6% under, the 1%-2% LVP, 1%-2% content, and the 1%-2% coming from mobility safety solutions should come through towards the end of this year period here, which we mean 2030, before it becomes meaningful. Of course, there is a gradual build-up, and we have also talked about that before, that MSS is contributing gradually here, but when you get further out there. This is the first step in the bag-on-bike product offering and then also the wearables. This is more, I would say, a data point that what we have talked about to build the last 1%-2% of the 4%-6% really is on its way. That's the way you should read it, and it doesn't really change the expectations beyond that.

[Jairam Nathan, Executive Director at Daiwa Capital Markets]

Okay, thank you. My follow-up is for Monika. Just as you take a fresh look at shareholder returns, your initial thoughts on share buyback of $300 million-$500 million, given net debt to EBITDA target being below the 1.5x?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

On the buyback, as we stated here, we are committed to our program. We are also indicating here that it should be between $300 million-$500 million year by year. That's a guidance. Of course, we take into consideration the balance sheet. We take into consideration, are we heading into more positive territory when it comes to overall business cycle or not, et cetera. We have plenty of room in our program that was launched last year here. Yeah, we are on our way here. We take all those pieces into consideration. We remain committed.

[Jairam Nathan, Executive Director at Daiwa Capital Markets]

Okay. Thank you. That's all I have.

[Operator]

We are now going to take one last question. Our last question comes from the line of Björn Enarson from Danske Bank. Please ask your question.

[Björn Enarson, Head of Sweden Equity Research at Danske Bank]

Thank you. Try to be quick. You base your guidance on unchanged regional mix. I guess it sounds fair. I would most likely have done it myself. Your regional mix last year, Q1, Q2, you talked about the significant negative regional mix. In Q3, Q4, I believe it was 100-200 basis points negative as well. Is that a fair assumption on the comps kind of that we are talking about when you said that your mix is going to be unchanged for the year?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Yeah. No, as you rightly said here, we had some headwind last year. We are not expecting that to be reversed this year here. Of course, it's much connected to the overall business sentiment that are around the world here. We are not considering any changes to that. That's the right assumption.

[Björn Enarson, Head of Sweden Equity Research at Danske Bank]

Secondly, you talked a lot about the guidance and versus S&P and VP. Most of the revisions were linked to Middle East and connected countries. What is your exposure to that region if you compare it to other regions?

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

I would say it's very limited. First of all, the region altogether is a minor part, if you look at the light vehicle production, obviously. I would say the indirect also is, let's say, manageable at this point here. Not that big.

[Björn Enarson, Head of Sweden Equity Research at Danske Bank]

Thank you.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Thank you very much.

[Operator]

This concludes the question and answer session. I will now hand back to Mr. Mikael Bratt for closing remarks.

[Mikael Bratt, President and CEO at Autoliv]

Thank you, Raza. Before we conclude today's call, I would like to reiterate my confidence in our strong market position and our growth momentum in Asia, particularly in China and India, which position us well for continued success. At the same time, we remain mindful of the heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Despite these uncertainties, our proven ability to strengthen profitability, even in a low growth environment, provides a solid foundation for delivering attractive shareholder returns and a clear path towards achieving our 12% adjusted operating margin target. Our second quarter call is scheduled for Friday, July 17th, 2026. Thank you for your attention. Until next time, stay safe.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

Participants

Executives

• Anders Trapp, VP of Investor Relations
• Mikael Bratt, President and CEO
• Monika Grama, CFO

Analysts

• Björn Enarson, Head of Sweden Equity Research at Danske Bank
• Colin Langan, Automotive and Mobility Analyst at Wells Fargo
• Emmanuel Rosner, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst of Autos, Parts and Auto Technology at Wolfe Research
• Hampus Engellau, Global Equity Research Analyst at Handelsbanken
• Jairam Nathan, Executive Director at Daiwa Capital Markets
• Jose Asumendi, Head of European Automotive Research at JPMorgan
• Mattias Holmberg, Equity Research Analyst at DNB Carnegie
• Tom Narayan, Global Autos Lead Equity Analyst at RBC