James Hardie Industries Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
May 19, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Fiscal 2026 results were solid despite a weak construction market, with Q4 net sales of $1.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $381 million, while full-year adjusted EBITDA reached $1.3 billion and free cash flow was $314 million.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company said the AZEK integration is progressing ahead of schedule, including early commercial wins from a combined sales force, and reiterated its goal of $125 million in run-rate commercial revenue synergies exiting fiscal 2027.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management expressed confidence that fiber cement will return to organic growth in fiscal 2027, citing under-penetrated Northeast and Midwest markets, contractor conversion initiatives, and new offerings like Statement Collection Essentials and Hardie ProLab training.
  • Neutral Sentiment: The fiscal 2027 outlook assumes a roughly 3% decline in the addressable market and includes $80 million-$100 million of cost inflation, which the company says it is offsetting through pricing, procurement actions, plant savings, and HOS-driven productivity.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management guided to fiscal 2027 free cash flow above $500 million, up from $314 million, driven by higher profitability, lower integration costs, and disciplined capital spending; adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise to $1.45 billion-$1.5 billion.
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Earnings Conference Call
James Hardie Industries Q4 2026
00:00 / 00:00

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Speaker 7

I would now like to hand the call over to Chris Russell, Senior Vice President of Global Strategy and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone for joining today's call. I am joined today by Aaron Erter, Chief Executive Officer of James Hardie, Ryan Lada, Chief Financial Officer of James Hardie, and Jonathan Skelly, President and General Manager of James Hardie North America Building Products. Before we begin the call, please note that during prepared remarks and Q&A, we may refer to non-GAAP financial measures and make forward-looking statements. You can refer to several related cautionary and other notes on slide 2 of our earnings presentation for more information. Forward-looking statements made during today's conference call and in the earnings materials speak only as of the date of this presentation. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly, investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

Speaker 1

In addition, non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures discussed today can be found in our earnings presentation, which is posted on our website. Also, unless otherwise indicated, our materials and comments refer to figures in US dollars, and any comparisons made are to the corresponding period in the prior fiscal year. Organic net sales comparisons exclude the impact of the AZEK acquisition, as well as the impact of exiting our Philippines business in Q2 fiscal year 2025. With that opening, I'm pleased to hand the call to Aaron.

Operator

Thanks, Chris. I'd like to take a moment to thank Chris for his contributions during this transition period in investor relations and to welcome Bill Seymour, our new Vice President of Investor Relations. Bill brings extensive IR experience to the role and a strong track record in the field. In my remarks today, I will briefly review the highlights for Q4 and fiscal 2026, discuss our strategy, and end with our outlook. We delivered a solid fiscal fourth quarter and full year, despite a challenging construction market, the result of staying focused on what we can control: execution, cost, and serving our customers. For the fourth quarter, we delivered net sales of $1.4 billion, an adjusted EBITDA of $381 million ahead of expectations, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.1%.

Operator

Demand held up across our core categories despite weather-related softness early in the quarter in the U.S. Our teams executed well, protecting price, managing costs, and supporting demand as conditions improved. For the full fiscal year, we delivered net sales of $4.8 billion, an adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.2%, reflecting the resilience of our portfolio and the actions we took across the business. Free cash flow for the year was $314 million, reflecting tightly managed operations in the year and despite significant one-time integration and acquisition-related costs. While organic net sales declined in our fiber cement business during the year, we are confident in the underlying demand drivers and expect this business to grow in fiscal 2027.

Operator

This confidence is reinforced by our great products, leading brands, and best-in-class sales force, which together position us to outperform the market and capture long-term growth opportunities. As I look back on fiscal 2026, we delivered against a number of objectives. A key differentiator for us is the Hardie Operating System. Through HOS, we've taken out and offset significant inflationary costs by improving procurement, driving productivity in our plants, and applying operational discipline. Even with lower volumes, we were able to maintain best-in-class margins and keep the business performing at a high level. As we continue to bring the companies together, we are applying the Hardie Operating System to the AZEK manufacturing network. We are encouraged by the early progress in the AZEK plants and believe that HOS will drive productivity and savings over the long term.

Operator

We utilized a HOS framework to make the difficult decision to close 2 of our legacy fiber cement plants in January 2026. As we move forward, we will continue to leverage HOS as a critical tool to drive productivity, manage costs, and support both margin expansion and reinvestment in growth. Another milestone in the integration we recently completed was combining our sales forces. We believe we have the largest, most downstream-focused sales team in our space. One sales force, one company, and a portfolio of leading pro brands, James Hardie, TimberTech, AZEK, and more. We are seeing commercial synergy momentum build as a result of the combination, with early wins validating the strength of our integrated go-to-market approach. These wins are both numerous and broad-based. You can see 2 examples in our earnings presentation. One example is our expanded relationship with Lansing Building Products.

Operator

Lansing has been a longtime and valued partner of James Hardie, through this expansion, we are consolidating multiple PVC trim brands to AZEK across their footprint. This simplifies the offering for the channel, increases attachment of AZEK trim on our fiber cement siding jobs, strengthens our ability to deliver a more complete exterior solution. Another example is our recently announced expansion with CBUSA. This exclusive agreement adds TimberTech to an existing relationship between James Hardie and CBUSA, expanding our share of wallet while positioning us as a single source provider of exterior products for custom builders. These are just two examples. The breadth of opportunities and early traction reinforces our confidence in hitting $125 million in run rate commercial revenue synergies exiting fiscal 2027. On cost synergies, we're ahead of schedule without sacrificing service or execution.

Operator

Integration continues, our conviction in this combination grows. Next, I'd like to discuss our go-to-market strategy in our largest market, North America, starting with the size of the prize. Our $23 billion exterior total addressable market remains heavily under-penetrated by more resilient materials. Wood and vinyl still dominate siding, decking, railing, and outdoor structures despite real limits on durability and maintenance, a $17 billion plus conversion opportunity. The James Hardie-AZEK combination positions us to capture it, build a leading exterior platform with the best brands, and win in both R&R and new construction. To capture it, we're executing against 5 pillars that drive our growth and margin expansion. First, material conversion. We're replacing wood and vinyl with materials that are more resilient, need less maintenance, and resist fire. We're seeing this play out in real time.

Operator

Contractors who trust our brands are switching competitive decking to TimberTech, and longtime Hardie Siding contractors are adding composite decking to their service offerings. There are approximately 60 million decks in the U.S., and the vast majority are wood, representing a long runway as the installed base weathers in the elements. These two-way wins are exactly what we expected from the combination. With our brands, products, and contractor relationships, we are positioned to continue to deliver above-market growth. Second, channel expansion in scaling what each business does best across the combined footprint. In the South, approximately 2,500 locations stock Hardie but not TimberTech yet. A clear runway for our outdoor portfolio into accounts where we have established relationships. In the North, the inverse, approximately 700 strong TimberTech and AZEK locations where Hardie isn't yet stocked. Disciplined approach, real growth opportunities.

Operator

The third pillar is innovation. The product and R&D teams from both companies are now combined, focused on solutions that accelerate exterior conversion. Innovation has been a key element of AZEK's 500 to 700 basis points above market growth per year. We're applying that same playbook to fiber cement to expand our market and drive new product growth over time. Fourth, brand preference. James Hardie, AZEK, and TimberTech are among the most recognized brands in our categories, and we're extending that lead through targeted marketing, contractor education, and innovation, most of it in-house. The impact is clear. In our DR&A business, brand search volume has increased at a 40% CAGR over the past three years, while customer sample orders, a leading indicator of future demand, have grown at nearly 15% annually over the same period.

Operator

This marketing strength also carries through to our loyal TimberTech pros, where our data suggests that the consumer demand we are generating has established TimberTech as the leader in brand awareness among contractors. This positions us for sustained share gains over time. We have combined the marketing teams and are applying the AZEK in-house marketing approach to the fiber cement side of the business. We scale this competency, we expect to drive increased awareness, consideration, and brand preference. Fifth, simplifying the consumer journey. We're making it easier for homeowners to choose and purchase our products. A key part of this has been a full re-platforming of our website, designed to improve how homeowners research, compare, and ultimately select products for their homes. Just as important, it better connects homeowners to our contractor network, helping turn interest into action.

Operator

Underpinning it all is the Hardie Operating System, continuous improvement in safety, quality, service, and cost. Together, this is a clear path to sustainable growth, margin resilience, and long-term value. Let me talk a little bit about our fiber cement growth plan. Beyond these five pillars, our fiber cement growth plan is central to the strategy. We have clear plans to re-accelerate Siding and Trim. As noted, we expect fiber cement to return to organic volume growth in fiscal 2027. Step 1, a deliberate focus on the Northeast and Midwest, where we're under-penetrated and where R&R wood and wood look siding alone is an approximately $1 billion conversion opportunity. AZEK gives us immediate relevance, established channels, strong relationships, and complementary products. In these markets, we are actively pursuing the opportunity across multiple fronts, including expanded dealer engagement, targeted training programs, and scaled contractor conversion initiatives.

Operator

Central to this effort is the continued rollout of expanded Statement Collection and Statement Collection Essentials, which ensure James Hardie has the right offering for each contractor in our value chain. We launched this program with a Midwest pilot in April 2025, and the results to date provide clear evidence that the strategy is working. We are seeing consistent acceleration in ship to revenue across each quarter, with growth culminating in double-digit percentage gains. This reflects improved execution in the market and early success in converting demand into realized revenue, and we are scaling this approach to other regions throughout our footprint. We're hitting these markets on multiple fronts. Hardie ProLab, a series of mobile training units, supports contractor adoption with hands-on training on ease, speed, and economics of fiber cement install.

Operator

Based on Midwest pilot success, we've expanded the program across approximately 50 dealer locations in the broader Midwest and Northeast with strong early traction. Our approach focuses on 3 opportunities. 1, converting vinyl siding. 2, winning against all wood siding types. 3, expanding our presence in premium products. First, vinyl. We're accelerating penetration in the Northeast, Midwest, Carolinas, and Canada, backed by new products, expanded ColorPlus rollout, and more contractor engagement and training. Second, winning against wood. We are rolling out easier and faster to install products, targeted downstream sales and marketing, and expanded channel access, including the legacy AZEK dealer network. Fire resilience is becoming an increasingly critical factor in this dynamic. As building codes evolve, insurance requirements tighten, and homeowners place greater emphasis on durability and risk mitigation, fiber cement's non-combustible properties are emerging as a more meaningful differentiator versus wood and other combustible materials.

Operator

While this is most pronounced in higher risk regions, we are also seeing broader awareness and adoption across markets, reinforcing the structural advantage of our portfolio and supporting continued material conversion. Third, premium products. TimberHue and enhancements to Artisan and other premium lines target custom builders and high-end remodelers, leveraging our independent channel strength where design and durability drive the decision. Together, these priorities position us to accelerate conversion, take share, and drive durable volume growth in fiber cement siding. Let me talk to you a little bit about our external environment and outlook. Ryan will cover our outlook in more detail, but let me quickly frame how we see the external environment and touch on our approach to fiscal 2027. The market has shifted substantially in the last few months. At the start of the year, we planned for broadly flat market demand in fiscal 2027.

Operator

Since then, key variables have changed. 30-year mortgage rates below 6% late February moved meaningfully higher after the Middle East escalation. Builder confidence and consumer sentiment have softened. Across our dealers and contractors, nearly half cite economic uncertainty as their biggest challenge. The broader market remains somewhat challenging, I want to be clear, we are optimistic about our path forward. We are seeing solid momentum in the business and are intensely focused on execution. We expect to deliver market outperformance, a return to growth in fiber cement, adjusted EBITDA expansion, and we expect to significantly grow our free cash flow, which will drive meaningful deleveraging. Over to Ryan, who will take us through the financials.

Speaker 10

Thanks, Aaron. I will walk through our results and then get into our planning assumptions. Q4 total net sales grew 45% to $1.4 billion, including $445 million of acquired AZEK revenue. Organic net sales declined 1% in the quarter. For the full year, total net sales grew 25% to $4.8 billion, with organic net sales down 2%. The organic decline in fiber cement reflects the market environment Aaron described. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $381 million. Margin was 27.1%. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $1.27 billion. Margin was 26.2%. A few items to highlight. Adjusted corporate and unallocated R&D was $45.5 million in Q4.

Speaker 10

For modeling purposes, keep in mind that approximately 40% of our full year 2026 cost synergy benefits are in that line. Our adjusted effective tax rate was 23.4% for the quarter and 20.2% for the full year, slightly above our prior 20% guide. Adjusted net interest was $65 million. Weighted average diluted shares were approximately 585 million. We expect both to remain consistent in fiscal 2027. Q4 adjusted net income was $173 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.30. Free cash flow for fiscal 2026 was $314 million, including the benefit of a completed Australia land sale in Q3. Integration costs continue to weigh on cash, but those stepped down meaningfully in fiscal 2027.

Speaker 10

Combined with higher EBITDA from synergy realization and disciplined CapEx, free cash flow will improve significantly and deleveraging remains a clear priority. In Siding and Trim, we delivered against our objectives despite unfavorable weather. In Q4, net sales were $767 million, up 7%, with adjusted EBITDA of $253 million at a 33% margin. Cold storms and above average precipitation, most pronounced in February and early March, limited job site activity and delayed project starts in both new construction and R&R. We estimate the weather impact to our fiber cement sales was approximately $20 million in the quarter. Activity rebounded later in the quarter as conditions improved. Our manufacturing footprint optimization and expense management is already delivering, with initial P&L benefits in Q4, an example of actively managing the business for stronger profitability.

Speaker 10

For the full year, Siding and Trim delivered net sales of $2.96 billion, up 3%, and adjusted EBITDA of $951 million at a 32.1% margin. In Deck Rail and Accessories, Q4 net sales were $345 million, up 5%. Adjusted EBITDA was $97.5 million. Margin was 28.2%. Sell-through grew low single digits. January was solid. February and early March were disrupted by weather, then activity recovered through the end of the month. We grew DRNA again this quarter, lapping strong Q4 growth in the prior year, delivering against the down market. Over the past few years, we've meaningfully expanded our shelf position with continued gains this year across both pro and retail channels. During Q4, we shipped to support those new shelf wins and saw pockets of sell-through delayed by weather.

Speaker 10

Working with our channel partners, we are taking a slightly more conservative inventory position in Q1 to set up a strong back half of the year. Q1 sales and margins will be softer as a result. Underlying demand is intact. We expect positive sell-through in both Q1 and for the full year. Full year, on 3 quarters of contribution, net sales were $795.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $224.8 million. Margin was 28.3%. We outperformed a market that declined low to mid-single digits by more than 700 basis points. In Australia and New Zealand, our fiber cement business remains highly profitable across new construction and R&R. Q4 net sales were $140 million, up 18%, mainly driven by FX, with adjusted EBITDA of $50 million at 35.8% margin.

Speaker 10

Softer volumes in certain markets were partially offset by pricing realization and disciplined cost management, with long-term tailwinds from durability requirements and consumer preference for low-maintenance materials. For the full year, ANZ delivered net sales of $521 million, which is flat, and adjusted EBITDA of $178 million at 34.1% margin. We remain focused on innovation, mix, and contractor engagement to extend our leadership in the region. In Europe, Q4 net sales were $152 million, up 13%, mainly driven by FX. Adjusted EBITDA was $23 million. Margin was 14.9%. Fibre gypsum demand was strong, and we improved profitability through expense management and increased manufacturing efficiency. For the full year, Europe delivered net sales of $557 million, up 13%. Adjusted EBITDA was $82 million at a margin of 14.8%.

Speaker 10

Turning to our fiscal 2027 outlook. The environment is more challenging than we expected entering the year. Mortgage rates are higher. Builder confidence and consumer sentiment have softened. Economic uncertainty remains a top concern across our dealer and contractor base. New construction will remain under pressure. R&R activity is compressed. Our base case assumes the addressable market declines approximately 3% in fiscal 2027. With that said, our guidance contemplates a range of outcomes on both the macro and the cost side. We are not assuming conditions improve. We are planning on what we can execute.

Speaker 10

On cost, the Middle East conflict has driven real inflation across raw materials, freight, and energy. We expect approximately $80 million-$100 million of cost pressure in fiscal 2027, roughly two-thirds in North America. Pricing actions announced in late April directly offset this pressure. Separately, the $25 million in annualized savings from Fontana and Summerville, cost discipline across sourcing, productivity, formulation, and deal cost synergies, where we are ahead of schedule, reflect structural improvement work already underway independent of the macro environment.

Speaker 10

One technical note on commercial synergies. As we convert customers, some wins involve buyback of their inventory in the channel. This is mechanical, transitory, and not fully modeled into our guidance. We will quantify it where material.

Speaker 10

Our objectives are clear: organic volume growth in Siding and Trim and Deck Rail and Accessories, margin expansion, and a significant step-up in free cash flow as integration costs step down. Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately 6%-7% of net sales. These primarily include maintenance, safety, and targeted growth investments.

Speaker 10

On page 17 of the presentation, we have outlined our planning assumptions for fiscal 2027. At a high level, our fiscal 2027 planning assumptions are for net sales of $5.25 billion-$5.41 billion, which equates to 0%-3% growth on a pro forma basis. On an organic basis, it's a sales growth of 1%-4%. For adjusted EBITDA, we are planning for a range of $1.45 billion-$1.5 billion, or 4.1%-7.7% growth on a pro forma basis. On free cash flow, this is where the combination of the business shows up. We expect to exceed $500 million in fiscal 2027, up from $314 million in fiscal year 2026.

Speaker 10

Higher profitability, integration and acquisition costs rolling off, and disciplined capital spending all driving in the same direction. Turning to Q1. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, we expect net sales of $1.32 billion-$1.35 billion, or growth of flat to 3% on a pro forma basis. On an organic basis, this translates to sales growth of 4.3%-7.5%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $354 million and $375 million, or 0.5%-6.5% growth on a pro forma basis. In Siding and Trim, we expect net sales of $758 million-$781 million. Channel inventory is normalized. We expect continued execution in new construction and early traction in the Midwest and Northeast fiber cement expansion.

Speaker 10

In Deck Rail and Accessories, we expect net sales of $291 million-$300 million. As flagged in results, Q1 reflects the channel inventory normalization dynamic. Across both Siding and Trim and Deck Rail and Accessories, pricing actions, plant cost savings, and cost synergies are all driving in the same direction on margins. With that, I'll turn the call back to Aaron.

Operator

Thanks, Ryan. Before we open it up to questions, let me leave you with a few thoughts. Fiscal 2026 was a solid performance in a challenging market, a testament to the discipline and focus of our team and our commitment to control what we can control, and it sets us up well for what's ahead. Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, we expect fiber cement to return to growth. We expect to outperform the market across our portfolio. The early returns and execution from the AZEK acquisition are encouraging, resulting in $125 million in run rate of commercial revenue synergies exiting this fiscal year and ahead of schedule progress on cost synergies. We expect adjusted EBITDA to expand.

Operator

Finally, we expect significant free cash flow improvement in fiscal 2027, which will drive deleveraging and give us continued flexibility to invest behind our brands, innovation, and go-to-market capabilities. We look forward to telling you more about all of this at our Investor Day, which we will host in New York City this September. Members of our leadership team will provide an in-depth update on our strategy, growth priorities, and long-term financial outlook. A formal invitation to register for the in-person or virtual attendance will follow in the coming weeks. Before we go to questions, I want to thank our team. None of this happens without them. They've done an excellent job navigating change while servicing our customers at a high level and delivering solid results. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Speaker 7

We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality, and if muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Philip Ng with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, guys. Thanks for all the great color. I guess question for you, Aaron. You know, still a pretty challenging backdrop. Help us kinda think through the key drivers that you have that gives you confidence you could deliver, you know, positive or organic growth in your Siding and Trim business. You know, it'd be helpful to kinda tease out the big buckets, whether it's pricing, some of these commercial synergies, how that kinda ramps up, and any other self-help or specific initiatives.

Operator

Yeah, thanks for the question, Phil. Look, quite simply, when we think about the priorities in our business, our number one priority as a company is getting our fiber cement business back to growth. Look, we've had a strong history of growth in this category over the last decade, but we haven't been happy with our growth in the last couple of years. We can talk about the markets being tough, but quite simply, those are excuses, and we won't have any excuses anymore. There's enough available share for us to go out and get when we think about the value proposition we have, the team we have. We're gonna go out and get it. Let me tell you a little bit of how I think we're gonna be able to do this.

Operator

We talked a little bit about it on the call, Philip Ng, look, we have a tremendous opportunity in our R&R business. We think that we can really take advantage of call it over a $1 billion type of opportunity in the Northeast and the Midwest that has been really under-penetrated for us. We're gonna be able to do this by making the product easier to install with our Trim-Over method. We're gonna be able to reduce costs to our contractors or to our homeowners who take on these jobs with contractors by the labor savings that we're gonna be able to provide. That's gonna help contractors go out there and do more jobs. We're gonna make the product more accessible. We're having more and more of our dealer partners bring in our Statement Collection Essentials product.

Operator

I guess the question is, all right, what's the proof point? How do we know this is working? We piloted this at the Midwest for about a year now, and we're seeing really strong growth. In fact, over the last year, we saw low double-digit growth in the Midwest. We're extremely excited about this. We're gonna roll this out to other areas. Right now we're rolling it out to the North, to the Mid-Atlantic, to the Carolinas, to the South. This is the number one priority for our team. As you know, we have a combined sales force. As we think about their objectives, this is number one for them, to be able to grow this fiber cement business. The other opportunity we believe we have that has been untapped for us and not fully focused on is really getting after these regional home builders.

Operator

We believe this is about a $750 million opportunity out there. We have the product to be able to do it. We have the team. We have the value proposition. And I think a proof point of this when we think about synergies out there is the agreement we just signed with CBUSA to help us really get after a lot of those regional home builders, not just with fiber cement, but with our whole selection of products out there. And then if we think about this, Phil, you know, just with the, from the fiber cement standpoint, you know, we do believe there's competitive share to go out there and get. We have a competitor that's vacating the space. Add to that the synergies that we believe we're gonna be able to get with the combined sales team.

Operator

You know, we look at our inventory levels, which are in a good space right now, and we look at our Q1, we have pretty favorable comps. You add all that together, Phil, and it gives us a lot of confidence for us to be able to get this business back to growth in this year in FY 2027.

Speaker 9

Well, that sounds exciting, Aaron. If anything, it almost feels a little conservative in terms of how you framed the guidance for this year. Looking forward to that unfolding this year. I guess a question for Ryan. Your full year guidance for EBITDA margin is calling for, I think, roughly 140 basis points of expansion. You're calling out, call it $80 million-$100 million in inflation. Tough environment from that standpoint. Just give us, you know, the levers you have at your disposable to offset some of this. You talked about cost and perhaps some pricing, just kinda help us think through how that kind of ramps up and the ability to drive that margin expansion this year.

Speaker 10

If you think about the stack last year, right, I mean, we had a lot of cost synergies that we took action on that, you know, materialize here in fiscal year 2027. Additionally, we took $25 million of plant actions at the end of the year in Q4 that would really start impacting us. Those are nice regardless of what the market has. Second, you know, we are seeing about $80 million-$100 million of cost inflation due to the current conflict. You know, we are working through cost savings as well as other procurement initiatives to go after that, as well as we have opportunity to price against that collectively with our, partnering with our customers.

Speaker 10

I think the stack of that as well as a little bit of growth and getting utilization in our factories, those should set us up really nice for 2027 from an EBITDA perspective.

Speaker 9

Okay. Really helpful, guys. Really helpful, Ryan. Thank you.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from Lee Power with JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

The decking-

Operator

We-

Speaker 6

railing piece. You obviously talked to an inventory impact in the first quarter. Other than inventory, as we look to this FY 2027 number, how important are the price increases that you've announced to hitting that guidance? What's the feedback that you're getting from your customers, given there's obviously a couple of your peers that are probably not going as hard on price at the moment?

Operator

Yeah. Hey, hey, Lee, good to hear from you. I'll start out here, and then I'll turn it over to Ryan, then John to add any color. I think the first thing, you know, to note is our DRNA business is healthy, and we expect we're gonna continue the trajectory traditionally that AZEK has had, you know, in the 27. We're gonna grow the business, and we're gonna improve the price and the mix of the business. Look, the last couple of years, we've really meaningfully expanded our shelf position with gains this year in the pro channel and also the retail channels. As we think about, you know, our stack and our growth algorithm, the biggest part of this is for us to have a contractor and customer conversion, which we'll continue to do that.

Operator

Look, from a pricing standpoint, we're taking price to offset inflation and also to hold our margins here. Guys, you wanna chime in here? Ryan?

Speaker 10

Yeah, I think those are the major drivers there, right? Our historicals, you know, we've been targeting to outpace the market by 5 to 7 points, and we've consistently done that. I'd say there's not a lot of change to the algorithm for this year. You know, as we exit the full year, we had a modest inventory build due to the weather after a successful early buy. That normalizes past Q1, and then we're back to kinda growth from a, you know, that perspective. I think those are the key things. I don't know, John, anything else you'd add, but yeah.

Speaker 3

I think that's well said. I'd just add that, you know, we have history of taking just selective price actions business, and still driving that 5 to 7 ear basis points above market growth.

Operator

Yeah.

Speaker 6

Okay, excellent. Just a follow-up, if I can. Just going on from Philip Ng's question around kind of bridging that top line. Market volumes, it sounds like they're going to be down 3%. You've got a couple of points of growth at the top line. There's a decent, a decent gap there. You've obviously kind of outlined a bunch of initiatives that sound really exciting on getting back to that 500 to 700 points of growth. When we think about 2027, is it real? Is it going to be that growth above market that does the most of that heavy lifting, or is it a pricing perspective? Just trying to think about how we go from, you know, down 3% to the, you know, the low single-digit growth.

Operator

Hey, Lee, I think that, you know, the short answer is we're guiding to a number we believe that's appropriate given the uncertainty that we see out in the marketplace right now. Also one that we believe that can handle, you know, continued potential challenges.

Speaker 6

Yep. Thank you. I'll leave someone else to go into the conservativeness of that. Really appreciate the color. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thanks, Lee.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey, everyone. Thanks for the question.

Operator

Hey, Ryan.

Speaker 11

Good afternoon. wanted to ask on slide 8, you know, it's new disclosure. I think it's a case study of the Midwest. I guess my question is: Do you expect to see this kinda growth when you roll it out to the other regions? Then what could it mean for fiber cement growth if it has the success that you think it might?

Operator

Yeah. Ryan, really good question. I'll start out, and I'll hand it over to Jonathan to talk about a little more. Look, as we think about our fiber cement growth, as I mentioned before, we, you know, have not been pleased with it. This has been an on-purpose effort that we've had in the works over the last couple years of how do we get after repair and remodel? How do we close that gap, right, versus inferior materials like vinyl from a pricing standpoint? We get after what we think is the largest opportunity in the marketplace. We talk always about these 40 million home or these homes that are, you know, 40 years or older, 40 million homes. We believe that we have the right formula now. It is the early days, right?

Operator

When we're citing this case study here, we've been doing this for about a year. The results are very promising. We're taking the template of that, and we're rolling it out region by region where there's this opportunity. We talked about the Midwest, the Mid-Atlantic. We think we can do this in other areas of the country. Ryan Lada, as we get into our Investor Day in September, we can talk about from a longer term perspective what that means. Our focus right now, as I mentioned in the beginning, is getting this business back to growth and getting it back to volume growth. That's our target, and we believe this is gonna help us be able to do that, even in what is a challenging market. Jonathan Skelly, do you have anything else you wanna throw in there?

Speaker 3

Yeah, sure. I mean, I think the only thing I'd add is, you know, it's really good execution, and it's providing additional education and awareness in the marketplace, right? There's a strong value proposition for the product. In certain markets, you know, there wasn't the right value proposition in terms of installation and pricing. We solved that problem, right? That gives us the opportunity, Ryan, to get after that $1 billion R&R opportunity that Aaron highlighted by making sure we've narrowed the gap between, you know, competitive and inferior materials. We allow both the homeowner and the contractor to benefit from a better value proposition from a pricing perspective.

Speaker 11

All right. That's great. Great to see. My next question is just on the first quarter, DRNA, the EBITDA is a little light. Can you just talk about what's the impact of the production cut in one Q to EBITDA? When do you think the channel will be destocked for decking?

Operator

Yeah. Yeah. I'll turn it over to Ryan here. Look, when we talk about elevated inventory levels, this is less than $20 million. It's so just full disclosure here, but Ryan can talk a little bit about the, you know, the impact from reducing the production.

Speaker 10

Yeah. Ryan, I would say it's, you know, basically half the decline year-over-year is probably limited to the production there. We did pull a little bit of volume out. Some of it was related to that inventory destock that we were mentioning. Some of it was, you know, we've been producing a little bit ahead for some of the synergies, and now we're kind of normalizing that production. Our goal was to get that all behind us as we exit a Q4 into Q1. The rest is really just the volume, that $20 million that we would repeat in. If you go through those two, that really normalizes even a year-over-year. All right. Got it. Best of luck.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from Samuel Seow with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Thanks. Evening, Aaron, Ryan. Just a quick question on the guide and really how you're modeling costs over the full year. You know, when we think about the margin assumption you've got there, are you using kinda like spot for things like freight, et cetera, or how are you thinking about the assumptions you're building into the margin? Thanks.

Operator

Yeah. Hey, Sam, good to hear from you. I'll start out. Look, what we're thinking about when we look at, you know, inflation in FY 2027, we're thinking about a $80 million to $100 million type of cost headwind. You know, certainly the Middle East conflict has driven real input cost inflation across certain raw materials, in particular, you know, freight and production inputs. You know, the majority of this, you know, call it about 70% is in North America. That's how we're looking at it. You know, as far as how we offset it, certainly we're looking at this from a Hardie Operating System standpoint. You know, the team has done a really fabulous job, even with slowed volumes, of operating very efficiently.

Operator

We've certainly taken out cost last year that is gonna help us this year. We're working with our customer partners, you know, where we need to, you know, from a pricing standpoint. That's kinda how we're looking at this. Ryan, do you wanna add into this?

Speaker 10

Yeah. I mean, I think the other way to look at it too, from a phasing perspective, right, it's pretty equal right now. We're not assuming recovery. What we're seeing for oil prices now in terms of freight and inputs, we're modeling that through the year. That could get worse, that could get better. You know, we're monitoring it daily, and we would continue to work to offset that.

Speaker 12

Got it. That's really helpful. A quick question on cash. You obviously did $300 odd this year. If we add an additional AZEK quarter, you know, reversal of the integration costs, we kinda get, you know, above $600 or well above your guide, you know, before even kinda considering, you know, organic growth or declining CapEx. Can we just kind of talk about if there's another moving piece there or if the guidance is just conservative on cash as well?

Speaker 10

We were starting with the building blocks that we knew, right. Obviously, the big one being integration and deal costs stepping down materially year-over-year. You know, we were really working on an assumption of, you know, we didn't need the market to help stabilize that. We did have a land sale that won't repeat year-over-year, that's part of the step down. You know, although CapEx is coming down, we won't get the benefit from the Australia land sale, that's kind of offsetting some of that. Generally, you know, that we were setting $500 million as the floor. We could definitely do better than that.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Questions on Siding and Trim and the guidance and the, and the organic numbers you talk. Can you give us a feel, at least directionally, how much price and volume are gonna play a role in that number for the guide?

Speaker 10

Hey, Keith, it's Ryan. Yeah. When you think about combined market down 3%, right? I mean, we think new home construction's gonna be down a little bit more than that. When you think about that growth there, I'd say about half of it's price and then the half is initiatives at this point. We could do a little bit better on pricing, but the reality of it is it's about 50/50 in our current guide.

Speaker 5

You think volume will be up for that segment in the year to hit the guide?

Speaker 10

Yeah. I would look at it as the price is kind of offsetting the market decline of 3%, and then that other 0%-3% would be the volume and initiatives that we're driving.

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay. One other question. It does look as you work through the numbers like a pretty big margin ramp coming in Deck Rail and Accessories. I know your first quarter is gonna be hit with the production slowdowns. Can you just talk about, you know, production rates and what do you anticipate to see for the rest of the year in that segment?

Speaker 10

I think, you know, we're pretty consistent where we were the last couple of years, just under 70% utilization across the decking network. I would say that probably stays pretty consistent throughout the year. It is a little bit lower in Q1. If you normalize for the Q1 blip, it's back to more, I'd say, kinda run rate, what we've seen for DRNA. I think absent of Q1, the run rate kinda holds the track record and kinda trend that we're on.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thanks, Keith.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from Peter Stein with Macquarie. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Good evening, Aaron and Ryan. Chris and John, thanks for your time. May just ask you, after the sales organization integration in mid-March, if you could just sort of dig in a little deeper for us, Aaron, and give us a sense of where the team is at, you know, what the balance is like between the two businesses and how comfortable you are that the team is set up to be able to switch and shift between the businesses and drive the outcomes that you're needing, both on Siding and the DRNA.

Operator

Yeah. Peter, that's a really good question. As you know, we think about keys to our success, that certainly is. Just to note, as we sit here in Chicago, we're having our sales organization have their sales meeting right now. If we think about this, you know, as we sign the deal, you know, it's we're getting to almost a year of finalizing it. You know, and we've integrated the two teams starting on April first. We're still in our infancy here. With that said, we're seeing a lot of success. When we talk about, you know, synergies, which certainly is a proof point for us from a commercial standpoint, we are seeing very good progress, and we're confident in our run rate exiting, you know, FY 2027 at a $125 million run rate.

Operator

Look, I think best we got Jonathan sitting right here who runs this group, and he can give some more color to you.

Speaker 3

Happy to do that, Aaron. Again, I think ultimately the number one love test is the customer, and that's where we've seen a really positive response, right? The, you know, the synergy opportunities are headed in the direction, you know, that we expected. To clarify, in terms of roles and responsibilities, you know, largely, if somebody was a tenured fiber cement seller or someone was a tenured Deck Rail and Accessories seller, that maintains itself. We haven't built a general sales force. What we've done is leveraged, you know, the strength of the team, and we still have that specialist model out on the street. But that's being, you know, coordinated as a team.

Speaker 3

We have a channel manager that's considered that person the quarterback at the customer level. The customer has one point of contact and then is able to leverage, you know, the best in class, you know, the knowledge required, whether it's a fiber cement conversion opportunity or a Deck Rail and Accessories opportunity. The customers' feedback has been really positive. The data and the sales growth coming from that has been exceeded my expectations. You know, Ryan just quoted, that's a big driver of the initiative growth we expect next year is gonna be driven by that combined sales team.

Speaker 8

Awesome. Could I just indulge 1 quick follow-up? You know, a number of years ago, you entered a range of exclusive, deeper relationships, particularly with the large builders, and some of those have probably played out in some of the sales performance over the last 2 years, just from a mix and location point of view. What I'm curious about is as, you know, a lot of those contracts probably are starting to extend now towards some form of renewal, how are you thinking about those? How positioned do you feel for extension of those relationships?

Operator

Peter, I think you were a little choppy. I think I got the gist of it. It's just our, you know, the contract renewals for some of the large home builders. That remains a key focus and a very important part of our business, and we will defend that, you know, rigorously, and we have. We believe, you know, not only is there opportunity to continue to defend that business, but to deepen those relationships and expand those relationships with offering a full suite of products that now we have at our disposal, whether that be AZEK trim or TimberTech type of decking. Our focus is to defend that business but also to expand it.

Operator

As we think about opportunities from a revenue synergy standpoint, certainly this is a key one for us.

Speaker 8

Thanks, Aaron. That's useful. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thanks.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from Timothy Wojs with Baird. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Hey, hey, everybody. Good, good afternoon. Maybe just starting with price mix in the Siding and Trim business. I think it was the 2nd consecutive quarter where that's been up mid-single digits. I'm just curious if there's anything in there that we should think about in terms of pure price versus mix. Ryan, it did sound like maybe that number, you know, could step down a little bit as you think about fiscal 2027. Could you just kinda talk about where price mix kinda landed in the 4th quarter and kind of the sustainability of that in 2027, especially against higher inflation?

Speaker 10

I think as we talked about before, you know, on the fiber cement side, we'd expect it to be a little north of 3% in terms of price realization, and then DRNA would be closer to that 2%. We did end Q4 in a little bit better position. I think price was net about 4.8%. You know, we did see a little bit higher realization on price, and then that was offset by some negative mix, based on the regional demand, scale. We'd expect that to normalize closer to that 3%-3.5% as we enter full year 2027 here. DRNA consistent, we would expect that 2%-3%, depending on the annual price increase as well as, you know, where we're working to offset inflation.

Speaker 13

Okay. Okay, great. That's helpful. Then just, is there a way just to kinda give us a little bit more precision on what the realized cost synergies, you know, that are kind of embedded in the guidance are?

Speaker 10

I think, you know, as we exited FY 2026, we're approximately at an $80 million run rate versus our original target of about $42 million in exiting the year. I would say expect, like, a $35 million-$40 million incremental of cost synergies to be realized during FY 2027, you know, driven, you know, by manufacturing optimization, you know, procurement, organization efficiency, and just continuing to integrate on the AZEK platform. You know, cost savings and things outside of that and the $25 million we quoted for the plant closures would be outside of that. That, that's generally where the cost synergies would be.

Speaker 13

Okay. Super helpful. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thanks

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from Keith Chau with MST Marquee. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, Aaron and Ryan. Thanks for taking my question.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Maybe just put it simply. You know, we're all trying to get a gauge of what's in the FY 2027 guide, and I just wanna focus on market share. You know, important to give a bit of context for Siding and Trim last year. I think there was a $75 million destocking impact at the revenue level for Siding and Trim. If you take that into consideration, I'm just trying to back out what your market share assumption is for FY 2027. Maybe if you can just give us that one number, that would be useful. Thank you.

Operator

Yeah, Keith, if you're talking about PDG, I mean, look, what we're looking at is how do we have positive PDG as we go, you know, into FY 2027. Certainly a lot of challenges in FY 2027. Our focus is to outperform the market. We believe, you know, with the commercial synergies, you know, the R&R expansion we talked about. You know, you mentioned it, you know, some of the comps that we have that we're gonna be able to do that and bring this business back to, you know, volume growth. If you're looking for a PDG number, our focus is to be able to have positive PDG as we contemplate, you know, our guide and we look to the year.

Operator

One thing I, you know, I think everyone knows this, but as we look at our guide, we're not only guiding through this year, we're lapping the calendar, and we have to guide through March thirty-first. You know, the visibility is limited, but, you know, we are confident in our ability to be able to grow and be able to have positive market share gains.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Aaron. Can I just ask a follow-up for Ryan? Ryan, I think you mentioned before that, you know, there's history of AZEK raising prices, being able to recover costs and also taking market share at the same time. Presumably, you're talking about that post-COVID period where price increases were fairly rampant. I guess the difference this time around is your competitors in decking haven't announced a price increase. Whereas, you know, back in that period, everyone, you know, was raising prices, and for some competing products, it was multiple price increases. Just keen to understand how you're proposing to manage the competitive dynamic given AZEK are raising prices and Trex isn't at this juncture. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yeah, John, go ahead.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Again, I mean, I would say, you know, we have history, you know, regardless of market conditions, to be able to take strategic, yeah, price. You know, there's a long track record, you know, with our ability to do so. Again, I think we have a proven history of strategic pricing plus share gains. Nothing's changed. What we have seen historically is typically the competition has followed. If they choose not to, again, we still believe we have the best value proposition in terms of a product downstream sales and marketing engine. We have a proven capability to take share, you know, regardless of what the competition does from a pricing standpoint.

Speaker 4

Thanks, John.

Operator

That's it.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Ryan.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from Truman Allison with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hi. Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. Another question on the synergies. You reiterated your run rate target of $125 million by year-end on the commercial synergies. How should we think about the contribution of these in 2027? On the cost side, do you see upside to your eventual cost synergies number, given you've made such good progress? Are you just seeing those come through earlier and you think you kinda land in the same spot as you'd originally targeted on the cost side?

Operator

Yeah, Truman, I'll take the revenue synergy piece. Look, we haven't, you know, explicitly mentioned what these are and how they're going to be phased in. What I would say is we have clear line of sight to be able to exit the year at $125 million in revenue synergies. You know, we gave a couple of the headlines out there. There's many headlines that we could give on some of these. The real magic is going to come, and, you know, Jonathan Skelly talked a little bit about the sales teams being together, is when we really get after it, which we are, our contractors, our thousands of contractors, that we can cross-sell to. That's a big opportunity for us as we move forward.

Operator

Yes, we're giving headlines, you know, we feel confident we do have line of sight to that $125 million in revenue synergies. You wanna take the cost?

Speaker 10

Yeah. Truman, on the cost side, right? The primary goal was to get to the 125 faster. We're not necessarily raising that target. The goal is just to achieve that quicker, and we're on a really good run rate to be able to do that.

Speaker 14

Okay. Good. Makes sense. Thank you for all the color. Then maybe more of a clarifying question here on some of the pricing commentary in 2027. I think I heard you say you're expecting about 3% pricing in Siding, which for you guys is a pretty normalized price increase. You also have these inflationary pressures that you're speaking to that seem maybe to require some additional pricing. Can you confirm on Siding and Trim is the 3% expectation for realization in 2027 correct? Then if so, can you kinda help reconcile why, given some of these inflationary pressures, that might not be a little bit higher in 2027? Thanks.

Operator

Yeah. Trevor, if we think about this, I mean, we go out usually with a mid-single digit increase and it usually nets to like 3% to 3.5%. Here's what I would say. If we have to go out and take pricing because of inflation, certainly we'll do that. On the Siding and Trim side of the business, we've been very selective in working with our customer base on certain products in certain areas where we can go take pricing, and that's what we've done. Certainly there's other areas that we try to make up that inflation and hold our margins. We talked a lot about the Hardie Operating System. We have a number of levers at our disposal, which we'll utilize if we need them. Thanks, Trevor.

Speaker 14

Great color, Aaron, and good luck moving forward.

Operator

Thanks. Thank you.

Speaker 7

Your final question comes from Daniel Sykes with Jarden. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just have two. The first one was just on the exteriors business within Siding and Trim on AZEK. It looks like revenue dropped kind of I'm getting into double digits year-on-year that was more than actually the organic fiber cement business. Just in the context with earlier questions around the go-to-market combined sales force, just wondered if you could help us flush out, I guess, the differential in performance between those two businesses, whether there's any kind of volume and pricing mix you can give us on that 7% drop from the exteriors business.

Operator

Yeah. Do you wanna talk to that? I'll talk to moving forward here.

Speaker 10

Yeah. Yeah. I think it, you know, just given kind of where we ended Q4. Are you talking about the results or the guided results? How we move forward? Yeah. Yeah. I think it, you know, we have a lot of the commercial synergies that early on are related to the exterior product. A lot of those will materialize as we get into the season here. I think that's really what you saw in Q4. Nothing really from a fundamental demand perspective, just given timing of where the market is.

Operator

Yeah. As we move forward, and you heard from some of the headlines, we believe, and we talked about this when we signed the deal, you know, we see some low-lying fruit within, you know, being able to bring PVC to many of our traditional fiber cement customers. That's what you're seeing with Lansing is us doing that. We'll do that with a number of other customers. The business is healthy. The business is gonna grow for us. Nothing else really, you know. I guess we have no worries about this business. We're confident of our path forward.

Speaker 2

Okay, great. Just another clarifying question. Just on the timing impacts of starts, I think historically you kind of talked to a 1-quarter lag between, you know, sales volume and what we see on the start side. Noted in the pre-prepared remarks, kind of talking to, I think it was a $20 million headwind from weather in February and March. It seems like the kind of timing has contracted. I was just wondering if you could help me understand a little bit more whether there's any kind of procedural changes, whether that shortened that timeframe and if we should expect that going forward.

Operator

Yeah. I don't think there's anything different. When we talked about the $20 million from weather impact. That was because we had customers that were shut down. There were job sites where people could not work. There's really nothing else to read into that. You know, as far as the would there be any difference from the lag between starts and realized volume, you know, we should get back on a normalized level.

Speaker 2

Okay, good.

Operator

Okay.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Great.

Speaker 7

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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