Simon Property Group Q3 2023 Earnings Report

Simon Property Group EPS Results

• Actual EPS: N/A
• Consensus EPS: $2.98
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: $2.97

Simon Property Group Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: N/A
• Expected Revenue: $1.28 billion
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Simon Property Group Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2023
• Date: 10/30/2023
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Monday, October 30, 2023
• Conference Call Time: 5:00PM ET

Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) (NYSE: SPG) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, develops and manages retail real estate properties. Its core business activities include acquisition, development, leasing and property management of regional malls, outlet centers and mixed‑use retail destinations. The company operates retail brands that include high‑profile regional shopping centers and the Premium Outlets platform, and it provides services such as tenant leasing, marketing, property operations and capital projects to optimize asset performance.

Simon’s portfolio spans a broad mix of enclosed malls, open‑air centers, outlet properties and mixed‑use developments, and the company pursues redevelopment and repositioning to adapt properties to changing consumer and retail trends. The company has built its business through a combination of development, strategic acquisitions and joint ventures, and it operates properties across North America with a presence in international markets through outlet and partner arrangements. Its assets serve a wide range of national, regional and local retailers as well as entertainment and dining concepts aimed at driving foot traffic and shopper engagement.

Corporate strategy emphasizes active asset management, redevelopment of underperforming properties, and growth of outlet and mixed‑use formats that reflect evolving consumer preferences. The company is led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer David Simon, and it works with institutional partners and capital markets to finance development and acquisitions. Simon Property Group’s operations center on maintaining high occupancy, enhancing the shopper experience and generating long‑term value through property-level improvements and portfolio optimization.

Simon Property Group Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Third-quarter FFO of $1.2 billion ($3.20/share) exceeded last year, prompting a full-year 2023 guidance increase of $0.30 at midpoint to $12.15–$12.25 per share.
• Domestic property NOI rose 4.2% year-over-year and overall portfolio NOI was up 4.3% (constant currency), with occupancy climbing to 95.2% and average base rents up nearly 3%.
• Leasing momentum remains strong with over 970 new leases totaling 4.3 million sq ft in Q3 and a 1,100-deal pipeline expected to generate $400 million in revenue.
• Balance sheet remains robust with $8.8 billion in liquidity, a 5.6% increase in the Q4 dividend to $1.90/share, and $140 million in share repurchases completed.
• A partial sale of Spark stake generated a $0.32/share noncash gain but will reduce the Q4 FFO contribution by $0.05 as ownership falls from 50% to 33%.

Presentation

[Operator]

Greetings. Welcome to Simon Property Group Q3 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Tom Ward, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

[Tom Ward, SVP of Investor Relations at Simon Property Group]

Thank you, Sherry, and thank you for joining us this evening. Presenting on today's call is David Simon, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President. Also on the call are Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer, and Adam Reuille, Chief Accounting Officer. A quick reminder that statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We refer you to today's press release and our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of the risk factors relating to those forward-looking statements. Please note that this call includes information that may be accurate only as of today's date.

[Tom Ward, SVP of Investor Relations at Simon Property Group]

Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included within the press release and the supplemental information in today's Form 8-K filing. Both the press release and the supplemental information are available on our IR website at investors.simon.com. Our conference call this evening will be limited to one hour. For those who would like to participate in the question-and-answer session, we ask that you please respect a request to limit yourself to one question. I'm pleased to introduce David Simon.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Good evening, and I'm pleased to report our Q3 results. Q3 funds from operation were $1.2 billion, or $3.20 per share. Let me walk you through some of the highlights for this quarter, compared to the same quarter of 2022. Domestic and international operations had a very good performance this quarter and contributed 17 cents of growth, primarily driven by higher rental income. Non-cash after-tax gains of 32 cents in the Q3 were related to the partial sale of our ownership interest in SPARC and ABG as a result of ABG selling primary shares in the quarter. Higher interest expense was a setback of seven cents year-over-year.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

We had a $0.15 lower contribution from our other property investment platform compared to Q3 2022, and a $0.02 loss on mark-to-market of publicly traded securities. FFO from our real estate business was $2.91 per share in the Q3, compared to $2.83 in the prior period, last year. So far, our real estate has produced $8.55 per share for the first nine months, compared to $8.40 from last year. We are pleased with the transaction SPARC completed with Shein during the Q3 that demonstrated the value that we have created in that business.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

The transaction was significantly above our basis, and as a result, we recognized a gain in the quarter, and the transaction ultimately reduced our ownership interest in SPARC, from 50% to 33% as we admitted Shein as a partner. Given our lower ownership interest in the back-end weighting of profitability in the Q4, we now expect $0.05 lower FFO contribution from SPARC in the Q4 of this year. During the Q3, the Taubman family exercised their put right on a portion of their interest in TRG. We exchanged 1.725 million partnership interest units for an additional 4% ownership interest. We now own 84% of TRG. Domestic property NOI increased 4.2% year-over-year for the quarter and 3.8% for the first nine months.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Portfolio NOI, which includes our international properties at constant currency, grew 4.3% for the quarter and 4% for the first nine months of the year. Mall and outlet occupancy at the end of the Q3 was 95.2%, an increase of 70 basis points compared to last year. Our Q3 occupancy is higher than Q4 of last year, which has not occurred historically. The Mills occupancy was 97.4%, and occupancy is above all year-end at 2019 levels, for all of our platforms. Average base minimum rent for malls and outlets increased 2.9% year-over-year, and the Mills was 3.6% year-over-year. Leasing momentum continues across our portfolio. We signed more than 970 leases for approximately 4.3 million sq ft in the quarter....

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Through the first 9 months of 2023, we signed more than 3,500 leases for 15 million sq ft, which is expected to generate over $1 billion of revenue. We have an additional 1,100 deals in our pipeline, including renewals, for another $400 million in revenue. We are seeing strong broad-based demand from retail community, including continued strength from many categories. Reported retail sales per square foot in the Q3 was $744 for the Mills and outlets combined, and $676 for Mills. We continue to be active in redevelopment, new development. During the quarter, we started construction on a significant redevelopment at Brea Mall and a new upscale outlet center in Jakarta, our first premium outlet in Indonesia.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

We completed the refinancing of 11 property mortgages during the first nine months of the year for a total of $960 million at an average rate of 6%. We have our balance sheet is strong, with approximately $8.8 billion of liquidity. Today, we announced a dividend of $1.90 per share for the Q4, which is a year-over-year increase of 5.6%. The dividend is payable on December 29th. And we also purchased approximately 1.27 million shares of our common stock for $140 million. We are increasing our full-year 2023 guidance from $11.85-$11.95 to $12.15-$12.25 per share.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

This is an increase of $0.30 at the midpoint. So to conclude, I'm pleased with our Q3 results. Our business is performing well and is ahead of our plan. Tenant demand is strong, occupancy is increasing, base minimum rent levels, rent levels are at record levels, and we are very experienced at managing our business through volatile periods of time. And as you all know, this is when we do some of our best work. So we're now ready for your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue, and for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

[Ronald Kamdem, Managing Director and Head of US REITs and Commercial Real Estate Research at Morgan Stanley]

Great. Thanks so much. Just one on some of the guideposts you've given in the past. As we're flipping the calendar to 2024, you talked about sort of 3%, organic growth as achievable. Just wondering how you're thinking about that and how we should think about potential interest costs, headwinds as that sort of rolls. Thanks.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Sure. Look, I think we feel good about that kind of comparable NOI growth. You know, our debt is reasonably laddered. So yes, we'll have some interest expense headwinds, but we still think we'll end up growing our business next year, with that said.

[Ronald Kamdem, Managing Director and Head of US REITs and Commercial Real Estate Research at Morgan Stanley]

Great.

[Operator]

Our-

[Ronald Kamdem, Managing Director and Head of US REITs and Commercial Real Estate Research at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Yeah. Go, go ahead, Ron.

[Ronald Kamdem, Managing Director and Head of US REITs and Commercial Real Estate Research at Morgan Stanley]

I was just going to say, if I can ask a follow-up, just on the $0.30 guidance raise. I think you talked about $0.32 gain and then $0.05 lower from the retailers. Just wondering, is there any other sort of puts and takes that we should be mindful of? Thanks.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Sure. No, we're going to have $0.05 lower because of the SPARC Shein deal. We lost a couple of cents from our mark to market on a couple of our public securities that we own last quarter. And essentially, the, you know, the real estate business has, you know, been very significant to our growth. And, you know, we'll kind of see where the Q4 ends up, but I think it's, you know, we'll-- you know, our 97% of our business is going to outperform what we thought from originally, originally what we had budgeted.

[Ronald Kamdem, Managing Director and Head of US REITs and Commercial Real Estate Research at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Sure.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

[Caitlin Burrows, Vice President of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Hi, good evening, everyone. David, I know you gave some numbers on recent leasing activity, which sounds really strong. I was wondering if you could give some additional context, maybe to how that leasing activity compares to recent and pre-pandemic years, maybe what that means for pricing and how that could impact permanent occupancy?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Well, thank you, Caitlin. So I would say, let me try and address your questions in no particular order. I think we'll be, year-end occupancy will be. You know, obviously higher than it is today. I don't know that it'll be our highest ever, but it'll be, you know, pretty within distance, pretty close. Even with all the volatility in the world and the market, we still expect, you know, we're still seeing demand, very strong. I mean, you know, we're, you know, frankly, we're cautious, we're waiting for shoes to drop, but we haven't seen it on, you know, our new deals, whether it's F&B, entertainment, you know, high-end luxury tenants, athleisure, you know, just to name some categories. We're seeing, you know, we're still seeing a lot of demand on that front.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

And, I would say from a pricing element, you know, we feel, you know... I would say we feel comparable to the way we felt in the, you know, 2015, 2016, 2017 era, in terms of era. I guess that was almost, you know, 7, 8 years ago, but lots happened over those 7 or 8 years. But, you know, we still feel like that's kind of, you know, we're in that good shape where, you know, we're driving rents up and, you know, it's okay for the retailers. They're making deals, and supply and demand's in our favor. You know, obviously, we cycled through a lot of poor performing retailers due to COVID, and the ones that we are doing new deals with are excited to do, you know, to do business with us.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

So, you know, pricing's going for sure in the right direction, occupancy is going up, and tenant demand is pretty strong across the whole spectrum. And even in certain categories, you know, just to take luxury, yes, there are some that are being more cautious, but there's plenty that, you know, that are growing new stores. So, you know, it's really retail specific. Obviously, bricks and mortar, you know, through the pandemic to today, has proven its value to retailers. I'm sure you hear that on the conference calls from retailers. So, you know, in that sense, we're making a lot of good stuff happen. Brian, did you have something on the occupancy?

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

I was just gonna say, we continue to see about 30% of our deals being new deals in the quarter, so that's consistent with the prior quarter as well. So there is definitely lots of activity on a new deal basis.

[Caitlin Burrows, Vice President of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Great. Sounds encouraging. Thanks.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Samir Khanal with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.

[Samir Khanal, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Good evening, everyone. David, maybe provide color on how your malls are performing versus outlets, you know, maybe from a regional standpoint, coastal, non-coastal, Sun Belt. Just trying to see what, you know, if there's any differences from a leasing standpoint. Thanks.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Sure. You know, it's interesting. I would say we're seeing pretty good tenant sales growth on the tourism properties, whether they're outlet or malls. Now, the most of our pure tourist properties are really the outlet centers, and we're seeing good growth in that category. Traffic generally is slightly above last year, still slightly below 2019, but obviously, conversion's way up because our sales are on a per square foot basis, are much higher than 2019. I would say generally, whether mall or outlet, the Sun Belt area has produced pretty good results in terms of sales year to date.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

We saw actually a decent pickup in California, which was encouraging, but really good growth in, you know, in the Woodbury Common that, you know, is finally getting the tourism back to where it is. And, you know, apparel's been strong in the outlet business. There's no question people are looking for a little more value, or maybe they're looking for a lot more value, given the higher inflation that the consumers had to deal with. Not a huge bifurcation between, you know, malls and outlets. It's very property specific. As you know, we reported flat sales basically quarter-over-quarter, and, you know, there's no real difference between outlets and malls in that number.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Luxury, probably, well, it did flatten out in the Q3 of this year, for sure, but it wasn't across the board. It was more a couple specific retailers had a tough Q3, others were up. So it was really, retailer specific. Jewelry, you know, malls may have a little more exposure to jewelry, so that was a, you know, that was a category that took a little more on the chin. Yet, you know, some of our higher-end retailers in the jewelry category performed well. So it was, you know, basically, not a real trend. I'd say the most important thing to come away with is that, you know, the Sun Belt continues to perform well, and we're seeing the tourist centers kind of make a nice comeback.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

They've been lagging a little bit more than the others over time, and a little bit of flatlining in, you know, in the luxury category. Tom?

[Jeffrey Spector, Managing Director and Head of US REITs at Bank of America]

Thank you, David.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Brian, anything you want to add?

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

No, I think you covered it, David.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Alexandra Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please proceed.

[Alexander Goldfarb, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler]

Hey, good evening. Good evening out there, David. So I'll do one question, and I'll hold the follow-up. On... As you guys gain leverage with the tenants, are you seeing tangible ability to, you know, get more favorable terms? One of the issues with retail over time has been, you know, the tenants, especially the larger tenants or the more anchorish or more, you know, fashion, like the hot tenants of the day, are, you know, driving lease terms traditionally. Curious if you're seeing a change in that, which would translate to an ability to accelerate, rent growth, NOI growth, et cetera.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Well, we don't have. I mean, thank you for the question, Alex. We're not that far away. We always say out here, we're really not that far away. But put that aside. It's not a question of leverage over the retailers. I think what we have going for us is a great, diverse portfolio. It's the best in the industry, you know, from Mills to our outlets to our full-price malls. And you know, that's unique. Its size, its scale, its quality, you know, that we've built up over many, many years. And as you remember, I don't think it was last quarter, maybe it was, Tom, but when we went through the, you know, transformation of the portfolio, was it last quarter?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

So, you know, we've done a lot to try to improve the quality of the portfolio. And I would say that, obviously, there's not a lot of new retail being built. There's not a lot of retailers closing stores, and or going bankrupt. And I think most retailers today know kind of the good malls and the good properties versus the not so good. And when you add that up, supply and demand is in our favor, and, you know, we're generating, you know, market rents. You know, it's neither here nor there. But importantly, and I think, I'd like to address this with you, is that...

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

And again, I'm sure retailers have a different point of view, but I think the most interesting fact that, or the most interesting thing that we have going for us, in addition to the quality, diversity, et cetera, that I mentioned, they know we're gonna be around, you know? So, and they know that, you know, that, you know, we'll stick to a deal, we'll make it happen. When we say we're gonna redevelop something, we do it. And I think that, you know, when there are Open to Buys, we tend to get our fair share of those or more than, because of some of the, you know, the factors that I mentioned, quality, scale, but also the fact that, you know, they know, you know, we're gonna get the job done.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

And obviously, you know, there's been a lot of changes in mall ownership over the years. You know, balance sheet and quality of operations is a two-way street. It's both... As we look at retailers, we assess that, they certainly assess us, and I think that gives us an advantage that we worked very hard, as you know, to achieve. And, you know, I mean, I... How do I say this? I mean, we've really outpaced our peer group dramatically, dramatically, in any measure you want: growth, earnings, dividends, quality of operations, scale, balance sheet.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

You know, I know we all focus quarter-to-quarter and this and that, but, you know, if you take a step back and you go, "What do you got going for you?" And again, we don't, this sounds a little braggadocious. I don't want it to, but I mean, we've really outpaced... You know, if you look over the last 10, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 years, you know, we've, we've dramatically outpaced our peer group....

[Alexander Goldfarb, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler]

Thank you.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Thank you. No follow-up. I stumped you. I love it.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Please proceed.

[Jeffrey Spector, Managing Director and Head of US REITs at Bank of America]

Great. Thank you. Good afternoon. David, just want to tie in some of the leasing comments, the momentum you're seeing, the deals in the pipeline, the high occupancy levels to the redevelopment pipeline, and just, I guess, how are you thinking about that pipeline and the ability to increase that? Like, how are you going to satisfy some of the needs out there and continue to capture that market share, maybe even more?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Thank you, Jeff. So look, I think we have the ability, you know, to develop and redevelop, because we're not, essentially, what I said earlier, we're not... Listen, we've got to be stewards of capital. We've got to be very focused, but, you know, we're not capital constrained the way some others might be. And, our ability to invest in our portfolio is unmatched, so we intend to do that. Now, at the same time, Jeff, you know, rates are up. Returns for us have to be up. And, you know, so, you know, you haven't seen a really big change in our 8-K redevelopment, but that takes time 'cause a lot of the stuff was put in place.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

But you know, when we build something new or we redevelop, we're gonna have to, you know, do a better job of leasing and returns and to warrant that capital, because just about everything we do, you know, I mean, we still wanna maintain our leadership position, but just about every amount of capital we spend, I have to measure it in my own mind against buying our stock back. You know, I mean, our stock, as you saw, we bought stock back, so our stock is pretty compelling. You know, we want to redevelop, we want to new develop, but, you know, we got a high hurdle that we got to jump over.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

So like we've done historically, I expect us to find the right balance between continuing and to maintain our leadership position, investing in our properties for the benefit of shareholders, communities, retailers alike. But at the same time, we got to be economic animals. And, you know, that's, that's what, you know, everybody here understands that process, and that's what we try and achieve.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed.

[Michael Goldsmith, US REITs Analyst at UBS]

Good evening. Thanks a lot for taking my question. David, you specifically mentioned the performance of the real estate business on this call several times, which has been strong. At the same time, this quarter, you sold off some of SPARC. So how can you continue to refine some of the ancillary parts of the business so that the strength that we're seeing and that you're talking about on the core business, can continue to shine through?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Well, listen, it's a very good question, and it's less and less of our business. As you know, it's under 5% of our earnings. You also have to understand that, you know, when we add it to our FFO, it's net income, which in many of these cases, you know, you don't add—well, all of these cases, you don't add back depreciation. So EBITDA and our FFO contribution are much different. Importantly, you know, these have all been profitable endeavors. But we understand that even the small amount of earnings that we get in comparison to our total earnings power is volatile. People don't like the volatility.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Well, like we did with SPARC earlier, we're gonna continue to harvest our investments over time, and as we do that, you know, we're gonna, you know, if you ask me today, we'll monetize things over time. And we're gonna buy our stock back because, you know, it's wildly accreted. Because let's look at it. You know what I trade at as a multiple of FFO, and you know I have investment value in these investments, but they give us very little earnings 'cause of GAAP. And if you do the math, you could see the accretion we would get on a buyback.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

So they're basically, you know, I get no earnings from them, but I've got value, and it's our job to get the value into cash, take the cash, buy our stock back, or invest in properties and, and have it a, you know, a bygone era of the time. But with an asterisk that said, you know, attaboy, you made a lot of money. So that's the strategy. I hope that answers your question.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Floris van Dijkum with Compass Point. Please proceed.

[Floris van Dijkum, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Compass Point]

Hey, David. Thanks for taking my question. So, I was curious on TRG. So I noticed the occupancy dipped a little bit. You essentially want to, you know, increasing your ownership by 4% by issuing some OPUs. What price was the stock issued at, and what yield are you buying? What's the implied cap rate on the TRG business, and how should we think about that also as it relates to, you know, other potential opportunities in the market? And how much flexibility was there? And then maybe, I guess, in terms of the timing of the next sort of puts or hurdles that you have in for increasing your interest in that business going forward.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Yeah. Let me, I'll just talk to you about the exchange a little bit, and then Brian can give you an idea. The occupancy is no big deal, but I'll let Brian go through that. So, Taubman has the right to put their interest, their 4% interest, for the next five years. And it's basically at essentially appraised value. You know, it's either a negotiation or we get appraisal firms and, you know, we decided to negotiate in good faith. We made a deal, and then we issued the stock. And, you know, I mean, the reality is, you know, we're trading, you know, Simon Property Group, unequivocally, is trading below appraised value.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

So one of the reasons we bought our stock back was, you know, I'm not a big fan of issuing stock at this moment in time, so, you know, we'll use our capital to, you know, basically get rid of the dilution that we did issue. Now, Taubman had that right. They exercised it appropriately. We had a good faith negotiation, made a deal, and it was more or less at their appraised value. To put it in perspective for us, at today's value, it's probably pretty close to where we negotiated our deal with Taubman pre-COVID, and then obviously, you know, we got the COVID adjustment, but it was in that range, kind of, where the deal was announced publicly. So we're gonna neutralize that dilution by buying our stock back.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

We started that once we made the deal. And I think the family's pretty smart. They said, "You know, Simon Property Group stock's undervalued, and I like, I like the dividend, and you know, why not?" So I think, you know, it... I don't know what'll happen next year. Could be the same thing, but at this point, they have 16% left in TRG. We're happy to own 100% of TRG. I think they're happy, you know, you know, to do what they're doing, and you know, we'll deal with it, you know, as time goes on. But nothing can happen the rest of this year, and it's sometime next year that this all recycles. So with that said, I hope that answers that, but I'll...

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Brian, if you want to add anything to that, please.

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

Nothing on that. But Floris, on your question about their occupancy, it is back 110 basis points. There were really two major spaces that they had to take out of commission, that they come back online in the Q4. So you will see that come back on and then some in the Q4. It's just simply timing.

[Floris van Dijkum, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Compass Point]

Got it. And if I may, if you don't mind, if I recall correctly, I have to look at my notes, but the cap rate at the time that you did the deal was, you know, had a six handle on it. Is that the right way to think about, you know, the appraised value for TRG?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Well, again, this was a negotiated deal. You know, their view of appraised value started much higher than that for, you know, with all due respect, Floris, which you might imagine. But we settled on a deal that today, you know, if you go back in time to, you know, Taubman pre-COVID, would've attributed Taubman's per share number in the $51 range. So somewhere in that range. We ended up, if you remember, during COVID, at $43 a share. I will tell you that their NOI today is higher than it was in 2019. Portfolio's changed here and there, so it's really hard to do an apples-to-apples, but at the end of the day, that gives you the, you know, the sense of things. But you're not that far off.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

I think that's a reasonable estimate. But that kind of puts all the metrics out there. You know, and again, not a huge deal in the scheme of things, you know, under $200 million today. So. But it gives you a perspective of kind of that. I think they would argue the appraised value is much higher than what they exchanged at, but, you know. But, we ultimately did not go through the appraisal process.

[Floris van Dijkum, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Compass Point]

Thanks, David.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Vince Tibone with Green Street. Please proceed.

[Vince Tibone, Managing Director and Head of US Industrial and Mall Research at Green Street]

Hi, good afternoon. So minimum base rents were about 3% year-over-year, which is, you know, about the same level as contractual bumps. So I'm just trying to get a sense of, you know, leasing spread economics here. Like, does that mean leasing spreads are also in the low single-digit range, or there are, you know, other factors influencing this metric, you know, one way or another?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Well, I mean, I'll see if Brian will add to it. Just, you know, remember, this is the total portfolio, so to move this thing up takes a lot, right? And spreads are just-

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Spreads

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

... you know, a moment, you know, leases that come in and go out. So, you can't really look at it that way. So for us to move the entire portfolio gives you a sense of leasing spreads. Now, if you look at whatever—what page is on the 8-K, the,

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

AMR page.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

You know, the new, well, we added some new information there on the-

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

21.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Huh? 29?

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

21.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

21. That, you know, you'll see some of that.

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

The new rates.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

You know, some of these that are going in there now are driving the rent. You know, the rent, you know, those numbers now include our new leases that are driving that base minimum rent up.

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

Yes. I mean, we, we typically only touch about 10% of our leases a year, Vince, so you got to factor that in as well. So renewals are about 10%, but the balance is our new leases, which, as David said, are really driving the higher, or contributing to the higher average base minimum rents.

[Vince Tibone, Managing Director and Head of US Industrial and Mall Research at Green Street]

Got it. But was my statement fair, though, that contractual bumps for base rent are still around 3%, or are they lower than that, the overall portfolio?

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

No, they're right in that range, Vince.

[Vince Tibone, Managing Director and Head of US Industrial and Mall Research at Green Street]

Then just, so is there any color you can share about renewal spreads? I know it, you know, it's hard to move the overall portfolio with 10%, but just, this kind of conversation means they're not too far away from the average contractual bumps. Because if they were, +30%, to take an extreme example, like, we could see that in the metrics. So I'm just trying to, you know, ultimately get some more-

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Again-

[Vince Tibone, Managing Director and Head of US Industrial and Mall Research at Green Street]

Color here on renewal economics.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Yeah, I mean, I guess, again, Vince, in order to have the average base minimum rent go up for 20,000 leases, okay, of 3% versus, you know, 10%-15% that calculate spread, you're going to be mathematically going to have rent spreads that are higher than the 3%. And we'll walk you through that later, but that, just from a math point of view, there's just no way that that can drive that number up. But, you know, we'll walk you through that. So when you say that, we would say to you, that's not... That, you know, that, that's not the, not reality, because in order to drive up average base minimum rent for 20,000 leases or thereabouts, you're gonna have to outperform much more than the 3% on just what's rolling over.

[Vince Tibone, Managing Director and Head of US Industrial and Mall Research at Green Street]

No question.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Got it.

[Vince Tibone, Managing Director and Head of US Industrial and Mall Research at Green Street]

Nope. Sounds we can take it offline. I appreciate the time.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

[Greg McGinniss, Director of US REIT Equity Research at Scotiabank]

Hey, good evening, David and Brian. I'll keep this to one and a half questions for you. So last quarter, you spoke about potentially being more active with asset recycling or reallocating real estate capital. Have the challenges facing the financing market changed those expectations at all, or how are you thinking about that today? And how are higher interest rates impacting your customers and tenants?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Well, let's... I'll take the last first. So I would say higher interest rates slash inflation clearly is affecting, you know, a good portion of the consumer out there. So, you know, their affordability for... And we're seeing this most on the consumer, on what I'd call the kind of the, you know, the more the brands that are focused on, you know, the more moderate income consumer. So there's no question that that's having some impact. But the good news is, you got employment, and you got wage growth that is counterbalancing that, but they're definitely being more cautious.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

So that, you know, that's not necessarily affecting, you know, the, a higher income consumer to the extent that you might otherwise think, but it's clearly affecting the lower or more moderate income consumer, that, you know, that, they're being, they're being more cautious. And from our standpoint, from a retail point of view, you know, demand, like I said earlier, we haven't seen it, you know, affecting retailers too much in terms of their growth plans. But, you know, we, we obviously monitor that every day. So from our standpoint, you know, our cost of capital is up, so, you know, any investment we make, as I mentioned earlier, is in the, is, you know, is measured against, return we would get from buying our stock back, the return that we would get from redevelopment or development.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Given that, that's why we haven't been active on the acquisition front. I don't expect that to really change. In addition, you know, you know, we're always looking at monetizing our assets, whether it's real estate or otherwise. To the extent that we can make the math work, and we create liquidity through asset sales, you know, the math is very compelling for us to do that, to buy our stock back. So you'll see more of that trend continue.

[Greg McGinniss, Director of US REIT Equity Research at Scotiabank]

Great. Thank you.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Mike Mueller with JP Morgan. Please proceed.

[Mike Mueller, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Yeah. Hi, just a quick one here, and I know this is a bit of a hypothetical, but do you think you would have bought stock back if you didn't issue the shares to Taubman?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

I think we're looking, it's a good question, a fair question, and let me say this, the way I'm thinking about it. So to the extent that we have additional liquidity events, or, you know, in the case of Taubman, you know, dealing with the dilution of issuing stock at this price, there's no question we're gonna buy our stock back. To the extent that we don't, I don't have an answer for you yet on, you know, whether we would have done it absent the TRG issuance or the enhanced liquidity from asset sales.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

But like I said, you know, our development pipeline, redevelopment pipeline is very much, very much measured up against the stock buyback. And every asset I've got, I don't have to own anything. At this point, I'm happy to sell assets at the right price to buy our stock back, and I think you'll see more of that from us, you know, over time.

[Mike Mueller, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

All right.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

That could be real estate and or other stuff.

[Mike Mueller, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Got it. Okay. And real quick, just in case I missed this, was there any change to the OPI guidance that's embedded in your current FFO outlook?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Yes, we've lowered it. We've lowered it other than the—you understand the $0.05 because we own less of SPARC. We have lowered it for the Q4 by roughly $0.20. For the Q4, it'd be about $0.20. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Roughly $0.20 in the Q4.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Lower contribution.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

You know, lower contribution if you look in total for the year, and you know, our share of that is roughly, if you take out the $0.05, we've lowered it about $0.15.

[Mike Mueller, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Got it. Okay, thank you.

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Craig Mailman with Citigroup. Please proceed.

[Nick Joseph, Managing Director and Head of US Real Estate and Lodging Research at Citi]

Thanks. It's actually, Nick Joseph here with Craig. David, you've talked a lot on the share buybacks, and it sounds like in your answer to the last question, we're open to asset sales and other monetization opportunities. What are you seeing in the transaction market today in terms of those asset sales? You know, where, where are cap rates? What's the buyer pool like? And, you know, are you seeing an opportunity to try to crystallize some of that disconnect between the stock price and, and where you'd hope to sell an asset?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Well, look, I think, domestic retail is, you know, not a lot of transactions, but we have assets throughout the world. That's one. Two, is obviously, we've got investments in our OPI category. But frankly, domestic assets, other than, you know, maybe some of our residential stuff, hotel stuff, there's just not a lot happening. And, you know, we might see some stuff, but I think that won't be really driving kind of the activity that we would, we would, anticipate.

[Nick Joseph, Managing Director and Head of US Real Estate and Lodging Research at Citi]

Thanks.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please proceed.

[Linda Tsai, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies]

Hi, thanks for taking my question. About 6% of ABR is on month-to-month leasing, and then 12% is expiring for 2024. How much of the month to month is getting converted to permanent, or should that number grow? And then in terms of the 12% expiring in 2024, what's been addressed from a renewal standpoint from where you stand today?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Yeah, I know that there's a number of leases in 2023 that are basically agreed to. We're just finalizing the documentation. So that's the first. And I would think that generally, we're more than halfway through 2024s right now on a kind of a negotiated, not papered basis. So, Brian, I don't know if you wanna add anything to it, but that would be, you know, that's kinda where we are generically.

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

Yeah. And Linda, you can see the material change Q2 over to Q3. We've cleared about 2.2 million sq ft out of that category. It's just a matter of processing. We talked about it on our last call. There's just a lag effect on the processing of those leases, so we do expect that to continue.

[Linda Tsai, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies]

Thank you.

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

Sure.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho. Please proceed.

[Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho]

Hey, good evening out there. Dave, I just had a quick follow-up on the consumer retail sales line of questioning from earlier. I think you know that your portfolio sales were flattish during the quarter. We've heard from other sectors, storage, apartments, it seemed like the consumer hit a bit of a wall during the Q3 in September. I'm curious if you saw anything within the quarter, maybe in September of that sort, and then perhaps, what's your expectations in the near-term outlook for retail sales for your portfolio and the consumer as we head into the holiday season and next year? Thanks.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Sure. Well, generally, as we said earlier in the year, we expect to be more or less flat, so that's kinda what our expectations continue to be in terms of retail-reported retailer sales. Again, we feel pretty good about the higher income, higher income consumer. We've also got a balancing act in terms of you know, some of our value-oriented centers. Centers will, you know, maybe play a more important role for our consumer today, that they might not have otherwise played last couple of years. But, you know, it's, it's unknown. I mean, I... You know, we're being extra cautious because of you know, the, the, you know, inflation is still a little bit there, still taking a bite out of the consumer.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Obviously, you know, you've got rates that are beginning to filter through, you know, the economic system. So, cautious, flat, we're not anticipating a downturn, but, you know, not a robust sales growth for the Q4, relatively flat.

[Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho]

Got it. Appreciate that. If I could squeeze in a follow-up.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Sure.

[Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho]

I think you mentioned earlier as well, that you started, I think it was $960 million of new redevelopment at 6% yields, and you talked about a higher hurdle rate, maybe some color on perhaps what that hurdle rate today is, and where the next batch of redevelopment yields or, or projects, would need to be, and where we could see them migrate to? Thank you.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Sure. Yeah, I think the, you know, it, it's a little bit dependent upon the real estate. So, you know, and what we're trying to accomplish and what the benefits of that real estate are and where the market is for that. So for instance, you know, when we build a new residential apartment house, we look at kinda where the value and the cap rates for that are. They may be obviously lower than our own, but, you know, to the extent that we feel like we might sell it and make the arbitrage, we'll do that. Again, if we're, you know, got an asset that's a six cap rate, we're building to an eight, that's creating value.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

On the other hand, if we have an eight asset that we're building to a six, it ain't gonna happen. So, you know, there's no. You know, we have themes, we have points of view, but just like anything else, every transaction we do, every redevelopment we do, really is grounded by what we're trying to accomplish with that real estate. So, but overall, you know, again, like I said earlier, we've got to push it higher because, you know, our cost of capital, regardless, is up across the board. So we don't have the luxury to, you know, to build, you know, dilutive deals. And, you know, as you know, we've never really bought dilutive, we've never really built dilutive, and we certainly don't anticipating doing that today.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

We've always had a spread to our financing, and to the quality of what we've built. We expect that to continue, but that, obviously, those thresholds have been raised.

[Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho]

Thank you.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Our final question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

[Juan C Sanabria, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Saving the best for last. I love it. Thanks for the time. Just curious, if you could comment on kind of the watch list. You've commented about the consumer, but maybe what the bad debt has been year to date, what the historical levels is in your perspective, as you think about 2024?

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

The watch list on retailers?

[Juan C Sanabria, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Yes, sir.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Yeah. You know, it's relatively low. There are a couple that were, you know, there today that probably weren't there last year. Obviously, I'm not gonna name those. So it certainly hasn't grown all that much, but there are, you know, one or two retailers that we're paying close attention to. And I probably wouldn't have said that last year. So, I think that. I mean, it's not a very good answer, but it's probably the best way to explain it, you know, without naming names. But there are, you know, a couple on that list today that didn't exist yesterday. But, you know, they're not 10 names. There are a couple.

[Juan C Sanabria, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Yeah.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Brian, you wanna add anything?

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

No, I think that's right, David. It has certainly expanded, but by only two or three names, and it's at a relatively low point, relative to history.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Yeah, and I wanna, you know, just confirm with everyone that is, you know, as you look at our... What page is our top tenant list on?

[Brian McDade, EVP and CFO at Simon Property Group]

It's on 22.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

22. You know, it's, you know, it's, it's certainly none of the category that is in our top 10 or, or top 20. So, and as you know, our department stores don't pay, you know, really don't pay all that much. Well, you have the rent there in terms of what they pay.

[Juan C Sanabria, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Thank you.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Thank you.

[Operator]

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Simon for closing comments.

[David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President at Simon Property Group]

Well, thank you. We finished a little bit earlier, so I think, you know, enjoy the rest of the evening.

[Operator]

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

Participants

Executives

• Brian McDade, EVP and CFO
• David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President
• Tom Ward, SVP of Investor Relations

Analysts

• Alexander Goldfarb, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler
• Caitlin Burrows, Vice President of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs
• Floris van Dijkum, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Compass Point
• Greg McGinniss, Director of US REIT Equity Research at Scotiabank
• Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho
• Jeffrey Spector, Managing Director and Head of US REITs at Bank of America
• Juan C Sanabria, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
• Linda Tsai, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies
• Michael Goldsmith, US REITs Analyst at UBS
• Mike Mueller, Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan
• Nick Joseph, Managing Director and Head of US Real Estate and Lodging Research at Citi
• Ronald Kamdem, Managing Director and Head of US REITs and Commercial Real Estate Research at Morgan Stanley
• Samir Khanal, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Evercore ISI
• Vince Tibone, Managing Director and Head of US Industrial and Mall Research at Green Street