BMO Capital Markets Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Vistra (NYSE:VST) Stock Price

Key Points

• BMO Capital Markets cut its Vistra price target from $210 to $188 but maintained an “outperform” rating; its new target implies 66% upside from the share price cited in the report.
• Vistra shares fell 5.9% to $113.24, near their 52-week low. The company also missed quarterly earnings and revenue estimates.
• Uncertainty over Texas policy and data-center development is weighing on growth expectations, while analysts overall maintain a “Moderate Buy” consensus and a $205 average price target.

Vistra (NYSE:VST - Get Free Report) had its target price lowered by analysts at BMO Capital Markets from $210.00 to $188.00 in a research report issued on Thursday. The brokerage presently has an "outperform" rating on the stock. BMO Capital Markets's target price indicates a potential upside of 66.02% from the company's current price.

Several other equities research analysts have also recently commented on VST. Wells Fargo & Company cut their price target on shares of Vistra from $212.00 to $198.00 and set an "overweight" rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, October 28th. Williams Trading set a $202.00 price objective on Vistra in a research note on Friday, October 2nd. Raymond James Financial set a $176.00 target price on Vistra in a research report on Wednesday, October 21st. Bank of America cut their price target on Vistra from $196.00 to $194.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a research note on Tuesday, October 27th. Finally, Scotiabank reduced their price objective on shares of Vistra from $207.00 to $189.00 and set a "sector outperform" rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday, October 28th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nineteen have issued a Buy rating, three have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, Vistra presently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $205.00.

Vistra Stock Down 5.9%

Shares of VST traded down $7.05 during midday trading on Thursday, hitting $113.24. The company had a trading volume of 9,002,360 shares, compared to its average volume of 5,247,821. The company's 50 day moving average price is $144.73 and its 200 day moving average price is $153.08. Vistra has a 52 week low of $110.89 and a 52 week high of $196.80. The stock has a market cap of $38.01 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.04 and a beta of 1.37. The company has a quick ratio of 0.87, a current ratio of 0.97 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87.

Vistra (NYSE:VST - Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Friday, August 7th. The company reported $0.76 EPS for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $1.61 by ($0.85). Vistra had a return on equity of 108.68% and a net margin of 11.55%. The firm had revenue of $4.02 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $5.46 billion. On average, equities research analysts predict that Vistra will post 8.93 EPS for the current year.

Insider Activity

In other news, CEO James Burke bought 4,465 shares of Vistra stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, September 1st. The shares were purchased at an average cost of $135.25 per share, with a total value of $603,891.25. Following the completion of the acquisition, the chief executive officer owned 1,146,352 shares of the company's stock, valued at $155,044,108. This trade represents a 0.39% increase in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. Also, EVP Scott A. Hudson sold 22,222 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, October 6th. The shares were sold at an average price of $160.14, for a total value of $3,558,631.08. Following the transaction, the executive vice president owned 308,915 shares of the company's stock, valued at $49,469,648.10. This trade represents a 6.71% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. 0.92% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Vistra

Large investors have recently bought and sold shares of the company. BlackRock Inc. purchased a new position in Vistra during the second quarter valued at $4,610,496,000. Envestnet Asset Management Inc. grew its position in Vistra by 16.1% in the 2nd quarter. Envestnet Asset Management Inc. now owns 258,337 shares of the company's stock valued at $40,979,000 after acquiring an additional 35,862 shares in the last quarter. Fifth Third Bancorp raised its stake in shares of Vistra by 95.1% in the first quarter. Fifth Third Bancorp now owns 177,199 shares of the company's stock valued at $26,638,000 after acquiring an additional 86,393 shares in the last quarter. Wealth High Governance Capital Ltda acquired a new position in Vistra during the 1st quarter worth approximately $10,543,000. Finally, Lazard Asset Management LLC boosted its holdings in Vistra by 353.5% in the first quarter. Lazard Asset Management LLC now owns 11,690 shares of the company's stock valued at $1,757,000 after purchasing an additional 9,112 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 90.88% of the company's stock.

Key Vistra News

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Some bullish analysis argues that Vistra’s shift toward long-term power agreements and capacity revenues could make earnings more predictable. One article cites 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance growth of 21.8% and sees potential upside from the Cogentrix acquisition and Meta contracts. Vistra: The Market Is Underpricing Its Shift To Contracted Earnings
• Positive Sentiment: Despite the policy concerns, an analysis notes that most of Vistra’s 2027 output is hedged and estimates its free-cash-flow yield at over 10%, suggesting a potential valuation cushion if demand concerns ease. Vistra: Texas Turned Blue, And The 2026 Forecast Didn't Move
• Neutral Sentiment: Vistra is scheduled to report third-quarter results on November 6. Analysts expect revenue of about $7.44 billion, though results and management’s comments on Texas demand and data-center projects may shape near-term trading. Vistra Set for Q3 Earnings Release
• Negative Sentiment: The main overhang is uncertainty after the Texas election: investors fear potential restrictions on data-center development could curb future electricity demand. Texas accounts for about 28% of Vistra’s EBITDA, making policy changes a material risk to growth expectations. Vistra Fell 14% on the Texas Election Vote
• Negative Sentiment: KeyBanc cut its rating on VST from Overweight to Sector Weight amid the Texas policy questions. Scotiabank also lowered its 2026 EPS estimate to $8.83 from $9.14, although it kept a Sector Outperform rating and $189 price target.
• Negative Sentiment: Put-option buying was unusually high, with 67,301 puts traded—69% above the average volume—signaling elevated demand for downside protection or bearish positioning.

About Vistra

Vistra Corp. NYSE: VST is an integrated energy company based in Irving, Texas. The company operates across electricity generation, power distribution support, energy marketing and retail electricity sales, serving residential, commercial and industrial customers primarily in the United States.

Vistra owns and operates a diverse portfolio of power generation and energy storage facilities. Its assets include natural gas, nuclear, coal and renewable generation, as well as battery storage projects.

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