Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results

Key Points

• GEO reported quarterly adjusted EPS of $0.39, beating the $0.35 consensus and rising from $0.25 a year earlier. Revenue grew 11.5% to $761.1 million but fell short of analysts’ $770.9 million estimate.
• Management raised its 2026 outlook and forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $777 million–$827 million. New and expanded ICE contracts could add about $500 million in annual revenue once fully operational.
• After selling its Adelanto complex for $950 million and redeeming $650 million of secured notes, GEO said net leverage is about 1x Adjusted EBITDA. It plans to balance debt reduction with share repurchases.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO - Get Free Report) issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The real estate investment trust reported $0.39 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $0.35 by $0.04, FiscalAI reports. Geo Group had a net margin of 10.31% and a return on equity of 10.42%. The firm had revenue of $761.06 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $770.87 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the company earned $0.25 EPS. The company's revenue for the quarter was up 11.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Here are the key takeaways from Geo Group's conference call:

• GEO reported record third-quarter revenue of $761.1 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $145.3 million, up 12% and 21% year over year, respectively. It raised its 2026 guidance and said it expects the fourth quarter to set another quarterly record.
• New and expanded ICE contracts are expected to add about $500 million in annual revenue once fully operational, including four facilities scheduled to activate in 2027. The company also cited potential upside from reactivating other idle beds and expanding services.
• GEO sold its Adelanto complex for $950 million and used proceeds to redeem $650 million of secured notes; management said net leverage is about 1x Adjusted EBITDA. It plans to prioritize share repurchases alongside debt reduction and is exploring sales of up to four more facilities, though no additional deals are assured.
• Electronic monitoring and supervision revenue increased 1.6% year over year, reversing a multiyear decline. Management pointed to growth in ISAP participation, ankle-monitor use and case-management services, while noting that the contract’s overall expansion has been slower than previously expected.

Geo Group Stock Up 10.6%

Shares of GEO traded up $2.68 during trading hours on Friday, hitting $27.85. The stock had a trading volume of 5,210,383 shares, compared to its average volume of 2,228,448. Geo Group has a 1-year low of $12.51 and a 1-year high of $33.17. The firm has a market capitalization of $3.69 billion, a P/E ratio of 13.13, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.48 and a beta of 0.78. The firm has a 50 day simple moving average of $30.12 and a 200-day simple moving average of $24.44. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00, a current ratio of 1.65 and a quick ratio of 1.65.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other Geo Group news, VP Matthew Albence sold 11,797 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, September 11th. The stock was sold at an average price of $31.45, for a total value of $371,015.65. Following the transaction, the vice president owned 87,602 shares in the company, valued at approximately $2,755,082.90. This represents a 11.87% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Also, insider Ronald A. Brack sold 7,000 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, August 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $32.00, for a total value of $224,000.00. Following the completion of the sale, the insider directly owned 71,614 shares of the company's stock, valued at $2,291,648. This trade represents a 8.90% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Over the last ninety days, insiders have sold 28,797 shares of company stock worth $911,916. 4.98% of the stock is owned by company insiders.

Key Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: GEO reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.39, ahead of the $0.35 consensus and up from $0.25 a year earlier. Revenue grew 11.5% year over year to $761.1 million. Article: GEO Group Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Management forecast Q4 revenue of $777 million–$827 million and adjusted EBITDA of $149 million–$154 million, citing increased ICE activations—supporting expectations that government demand can drive further growth. Article: GEO Forecasts Q4 Revenue and EBITDA
• Positive Sentiment: JonesTrading raised its price target to $42.75 from $40 and maintained a Buy rating, signaling increased analyst optimism. JonesTrading Recommendations
• Negative Sentiment: Q3 revenue of $761.1 million missed the approximately $770.9 million analyst estimate. This shortfall may offset some of the positive impact of the EPS beat. Article: GEO Group Misses Q3 Revenue Estimates
• Negative Sentiment: GEO’s reliance on ICE and government contracts leaves it exposed to potential policy shifts; a pre-election report highlighted political uncertainty as a risk for private-prison operators. Article: Political Risks for GEO Group and CoreCivic

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

GEO has been the topic of several recent analyst reports. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating in a report on Monday, July 20th. UBS Group reaffirmed a "buy" rating on shares of Geo Group in a research report on Tuesday, October 6th. Wall Street Zen downgraded Geo Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Saturday, July 25th. JonesTrading lifted their price objective on Geo Group from $40.00 to $42.75 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research report on Thursday. Finally, Noble Financial reissued an "outperform" rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Monday, August 10th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have given a Buy rating and one has issued a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the stock has an average rating of "Buy" and an average target price of $41.38.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group, Inc NYSE: GEO is a provider of correctional, detention and community-based services. The company develops and operates secure facilities for government agencies, offering services that can include facility management, housing, transportation, food services, medical care, education and rehabilitation programs.

GEO also provides reentry and community-based services designed to support individuals transitioning from incarceration. Through its electronic monitoring and supervision offerings, the company assists government and law-enforcement agencies with alternatives to secure detention, including GPS monitoring, case management and other post-release support services.

Founded in 1984 as Wackenhut Corrections Corporation, the company adopted the name The GEO Group in 2003.

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