Erste Group Bank Has Negative Outlook of TSM FY2026 Earnings

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank slightly cut its FY2026 EPS forecast for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to $15.74 from $15.76, showing only a modest reduction in expectations. The new estimate remains above the broader consensus of $15.35 per share.
• Despite the small trim, analyst sentiment on TSMC remains broadly positive. The stock currently carries an average “Buy” rating, with several firms recently raising price targets, including Susquehanna and Bank of America.
• TSMC continues to show strong fundamentals and shareholder returns, with a 46.97% net margin, 36.81% return on equity, and a newly increased quarterly dividend of $1.1136 per share. However, the article also notes some near-term pressure from chip-sector selloffs and profit-taking.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (NYSE:TSM - Free Report) - Erste Group Bank decreased their FY2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in a report released on Thursday, June 25th. Erste Group Bank analyst H. Engel now anticipates that the semiconductor company will post earnings of $15.74 per share for the year, down from their prior forecast of $15.76. The consensus estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's current full-year earnings is $15.35 per share.

A number of other equities research analysts also recently weighed in on the company. Zacks Research downgraded Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing from a "strong-buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Monday, March 16th. Wall Street Zen upgraded shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing from a "hold" rating to a "buy" rating in a research note on Sunday, March 22nd. Weiss Ratings reiterated a "buy (b-)" rating on shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in a research report on Wednesday, June 17th. Susquehanna lifted their price objective on shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing from $500.00 to $575.00 and gave the company a "positive" rating in a report on Monday, June 22nd. Finally, Bank of America increased their target price on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing from $490.00 to $590.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research report on Wednesday, June 24th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twelve have issued a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the company's stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the company presently has an average rating of "Buy" and an average target price of $449.38.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Price Performance

NYSE TSM opened at $444.62 on Thursday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, a quick ratio of 2.31 and a current ratio of 2.49. The company has a market cap of $2.31 trillion, a PE ratio of 36.99, a P/E/G ratio of 1.20 and a beta of 1.36. The firm's 50 day moving average price is $419.50 and its 200-day moving average price is $367.06. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has a 52-week low of $223.70 and a 52-week high of $479.00.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM - Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Tuesday, February 10th. The semiconductor company reported $3.11 EPS for the quarter. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing had a net margin of 46.97% and a return on equity of 36.81%. The business had revenue of $30.65 billion for the quarter.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Increases Dividend

The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, October 8th. Stockholders of record on Wednesday, September 16th will be paid a $1.1136 dividend. This is a positive change from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's previous quarterly dividend of $0.95. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Wednesday, September 16th. This represents a $4.45 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 1.0%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's dividend payout ratio is currently 29.20%.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In other Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing news, VP Tzu-Sou Chuang sold 200,000 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction on Tuesday, May 19th. The stock was sold at an average price of $69.83, for a total transaction of $13,966,000.00. Following the completion of the sale, the vice president owned 2,495,165 shares of the company's stock, valued at $174,237,371.95. This trade represents a 7.42% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. Also, VP Lipen Yuan acquired 1,000 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, June 22nd. The shares were acquired at an average cost of $79.19 per share, with a total value of $79,190.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the vice president directly owned 5,000 shares in the company, valued at approximately $395,950. The trade was a 25.00% increase in their position. The SEC filing for this purchase provides additional information. Insiders acquired a total of 5,496 shares of company stock valued at $404,567 over the last quarter. 1.11% of the stock is owned by insiders.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Quattro Advisors LLC acquired a new position in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing during the fourth quarter worth approximately $25,000. Hilton Head Capital Partners LLC purchased a new stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in the 4th quarter valued at approximately $27,000. Stephens Consulting LLC boosted its stake in shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing by 82.0% in the fourth quarter. Stephens Consulting LLC now owns 91 shares of the semiconductor company's stock valued at $28,000 after buying an additional 41 shares in the last quarter. Strategic Advocates LLC increased its holdings in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing by 62.1% in the fourth quarter. Strategic Advocates LLC now owns 94 shares of the semiconductor company's stock valued at $28,000 after buying an additional 36 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Ares Financial Consulting LLC purchased a new position in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in the 4th quarter valued at about $29,000. 16.51% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Key Stories Impacting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Here are the key news stories impacting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Analysts at Erste Group Bank raised their FY2027 earnings estimate for TSMC, reinforcing confidence in the company’s longer-term profit growth and AI-driven demand outlook. Overclocking Qualcomm: Rewiring the AI Compute Market
• Positive Sentiment: Several recent market notes continue to frame TSMC as a key beneficiary of the AI capex boom, with articles highlighting its manufacturing expansion and strong position in advanced chip production. TSMC vs. NVIDIA: Which AI Semiconductor Stock Should You Buy in July?
• Positive Sentiment: News that TSMC is pushing development of panel-level CoPoS packaging for AI chips suggests it is investing in next-generation technology that could strengthen its competitive moat over time. TSMC targets 2029 for panel-level CoPoS packaging in AI chip push - DigiTimes
• Neutral Sentiment: TSMC vice president Bor-Zen Tien bought 1,000 shares, a modest insider confidence signal, but not a major near-term catalyst by itself. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing NYSE: TSM VP Acquires $76,640.00 in Stock
• Neutral Sentiment: Erste Group also trimmed its FY2026 EPS estimate only slightly, which is not a major fundamental downgrade but does show some caution around near-term earnings expectations. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock page
• Negative Sentiment: Asian chip stocks sold off broadly, and TSMC was caught up in that move as investors rotated out of semiconductor names ahead of U.S. jobs data. Asian stocks slide on chip sell-off as markets await US jobs data
• Negative Sentiment: One market note said TSMC fell more steeply than the broader market after a strong rally, pointing to profit taking and valuation concerns as a near-term headwind. TSMC (TSM) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know

About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a leading pure-play semiconductor foundry that provides wafer fabrication and related services to the global semiconductor industry. Founded in 1987 by Morris Chang and headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan, TSMC manufactures integrated circuits on behalf of fabless and integrated device manufacturers, offering contract chip production across a broad set of technologies and products.

TSMC's service offering covers logic and mixed-signal process technologies, specialty processes for radio-frequency, power management and embedded memory, and advanced nodes used in mobile, high-performance computing and AI applications.

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