Erste Group Bank Forecasts Higher Earnings for Union Pacific

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank raised its Union Pacific FY2026 EPS forecast to $13.14 from $13.12, above the $13.05 consensus, and projects FY2027 EPS of $14.24. The firm maintains a “Buy” rating.
• Union Pacific exceeded quarterly expectations, reporting $3.53 EPS versus $3.47 expected and $7.20 billion in revenue versus $7.16 billion expected. Revenue increased 15.3% year over year, while net margin reached 28.85%.
• Analyst sentiment remains positive, with the stock carrying a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and an average price target of $325.00; Union Pacific also increased its quarterly dividend to $1.42, implying a 1.9% yield.

Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP - Free Report) - Research analysts at Erste Group Bank boosted their FY2026 earnings per share estimates for shares of Union Pacific in a research note issued to investors on Wednesday, October 21st. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now anticipates that the railroad operator will earn $13.14 per share for the year, up from their previous estimate of $13.12. Erste Group Bank has a "Buy" rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for Union Pacific's current full-year earnings is $13.05 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for Union Pacific's FY2027 earnings at $14.24 EPS.

Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP - Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Thursday, October 22nd. The railroad operator reported $3.53 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $3.47 by $0.06. Union Pacific had a return on equity of 38.46% and a net margin of 28.85%. The company had revenue of $7.20 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $7.16 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business posted $3.08 EPS. The business's revenue for the quarter was up 15.3% on a year-over-year basis.

Other equities research analysts have also issued research reports about the stock. Weiss Ratings raised shares of Union Pacific from a "buy (b-)" rating to a "buy (b)" rating in a research note on Friday, October 9th. UBS Group upgraded Union Pacific from a "neutral" rating to a "buy" rating and boosted their target price for the company from $310.00 to $339.00 in a research note on Wednesday, September 16th. Barclays reaffirmed an "overweight" rating and issued a $350.00 target price (up from $315.00) on shares of Union Pacific in a research report on Friday, July 24th. Bank of America raised their price objective on shares of Union Pacific from $301.00 to $334.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research report on Thursday, July 23rd. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company reiterated an "overweight" rating and issued a $335.00 target price (up from $315.00) on shares of Union Pacific in a research note on Friday, July 24th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, fifteen have assigned a Buy rating and four have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Union Pacific presently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $325.00.

Union Pacific Stock Performance

UNP stock opened at $298.08 on Friday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.40, a quick ratio of 0.82 and a current ratio of 0.99. The stock has a market cap of $177.08 billion, a P/E ratio of 24.14, a P/E/G ratio of 2.86 and a beta of 0.95. The firm has a 50 day simple moving average of $287.41 and a 200 day simple moving average of $278.18. Union Pacific has a 52 week low of $215.53 and a 52 week high of $315.99.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Union Pacific

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. Capital Advisors Inc. OK boosted its holdings in shares of Union Pacific by 1.8% during the 2nd quarter. Capital Advisors Inc. OK now owns 1,888 shares of the railroad operator's stock worth $513,000 after buying an additional 34 shares during the period. Tiemann Investment Advisors LLC lifted its position in Union Pacific by 1.7% during the 2nd quarter. Tiemann Investment Advisors LLC now owns 2,117 shares of the railroad operator's stock worth $576,000 after acquiring an additional 35 shares during the last quarter. Burford Brothers Inc. lifted its position in Union Pacific by 1.9% during the 2nd quarter. Burford Brothers Inc. now owns 1,877 shares of the railroad operator's stock worth $511,000 after acquiring an additional 35 shares during the last quarter. TFR Capital LLC. boosted its holdings in Union Pacific by 3.8% during the second quarter. TFR Capital LLC. now owns 979 shares of the railroad operator's stock valued at $266,000 after acquiring an additional 36 shares during the period. Finally, Louisbourg Investments Inc. boosted its holdings in Union Pacific by 0.4% during the third quarter. Louisbourg Investments Inc. now owns 9,587 shares of the railroad operator's stock valued at $2,609,000 after acquiring an additional 36 shares during the period. 80.38% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Union Pacific Increases Dividend

The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Wednesday, September 30th. Investors of record on Monday, August 31st were paid a $1.42 dividend. This represents a $5.68 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 1.9%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, August 31st. This is a positive change from Union Pacific's previous quarterly dividend of $1.38. Union Pacific's dividend payout ratio (DPR) is 45.99%.

More Union Pacific News

Here are the key news stories impacting Union Pacific this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Quarterly earnings and revenue exceeded expectations. Adjusted EPS was $3.53 versus the $3.47 consensus, while revenue reached $7.20 billion, ahead of the $7.16 billion estimate. Adjusted profit increased 15%, supported by higher freight volumes, pricing gains and fuel-surcharge revenue. Reuters: Union Pacific quarterly profit rises
• Positive Sentiment: Operating momentum remained strong. Management cited approximately 6% volume growth and productivity improvements, with stronger rail demand as elevated trucking fuel costs encourage some cargo to shift to rail. Pricing discipline helped offset inflation and higher fuel expenses. Union Pacific posts record third-quarter revenue and profits
• Positive Sentiment: Full-year guidance was maintained or improved. Union Pacific affirmed expectations for reported 2026 EPS growth in the high-single-digit range and raised planned capital spending to $3.5 billion, indicating confidence in demand and network investment opportunities. Stephens lifted its price target to $352 from $340. Union Pacific affirms EPS growth and raises capex
• Neutral Sentiment: Merger approval remains a major catalyst and risk. CEO Vincenzo Vena expressed extremely high confidence that the Norfolk Southern transaction will receive approval, but the Surface Transportation Board review is not complete. Approval could expand Union Pacific’s long-term growth prospects, while delays or conditions could pressure the shares. Union Pacific CEO discusses merger approval
• Negative Sentiment: Costs and leadership transition warrant monitoring. Fuel prices, inflation and operating expenses remain headwinds, while CFO Jennifer Hamann plans to retire after 35 years. The stock’s elevated valuation—about 24 times earnings—also leaves less room for disappointment. Union Pacific CFO Jennifer Hamann to retire

Union Pacific Company Profile

Union Pacific Corporation NYSE: UNP is a transportation company that operates one of the largest freight railroad networks in the United States. Through its Union Pacific Railroad subsidiary, the company moves goods across the western two-thirds of the country, connecting major agricultural, industrial, energy, population and port markets.

Union Pacific transports a broad range of commodities and products, including agricultural goods, automotive shipments, chemicals, coal, industrial products, forest products and intermodal containers.

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