American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) Releases FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Key Points

• American Airlines issued weak 2026 guidance: Full-year EPS is forecast at a loss of $1.60 to $1.00, below the consensus estimate of a $0.97 loss, while fourth-quarter EPS guidance calls for a loss of $1.10 to $0.50.
• Fuel costs are pressuring profitability despite strong revenue: Third-quarter revenue rose 19.3% year over year to $16.34 billion and beat estimates, while EPS also exceeded expectations; however, fuel expenses surged about 67.5%, contributing to a quarterly adjusted loss.
• Investor sentiment remains cautious: Shares fell 4.6% to $12.03, and analysts’ average rating is “Hold” with a consensus price target of $17.29. Analyst views are mixed, with some target-price cuts and one notable upgrade from JPMorgan.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL - Get Free Report) issued an update on its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Friday. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of -1.600--1.000 for the period, compared to the consensus estimate of -0.970. American Airlines Group also updated its Q4 2026 guidance to -1.100--0.500 EPS.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Several analysts have commented on the company. JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased their target price on American Airlines Group from $22.00 to $24.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research note on Friday, July 24th. BMO Capital Markets decreased their price target on American Airlines Group from $19.00 to $15.50 and set a "market perform" rating for the company in a research note on Monday, September 28th. Barclays lowered their price target on American Airlines Group from $19.00 to $14.00 and set an "equal weight" rating on the stock in a report on Friday, September 11th. Melius Research cut American Airlines Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating and increased their price objective for the company from $15.00 to $19.00 in a research report on Tuesday, July 7th. Finally, TD Cowen reduced their price objective on American Airlines Group from $16.00 to $15.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a report on Friday, October 2nd. Eight analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, ten have given a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, American Airlines Group currently has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus price target of $17.29.

American Airlines Group Stock Down 4.6%

AAL opened at $12.03 on Friday. The stock has a market capitalization of $7.96 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -24.56 and a beta of 1.37. The firm has a 50 day moving average price of $13.13 and a 200-day moving average price of $13.93. American Airlines Group has a twelve month low of $10.09 and a twelve month high of $18.79.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL - Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Thursday, October 22nd. The airline reported ($0.28) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.36) by $0.08. American Airlines Group had a negative net margin of 0.56% and a negative return on equity of 9.11%. The company had revenue of $16.34 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $16.21 billion. During the same quarter last year, the company posted ($0.17) earnings per share. The firm's quarterly revenue was up 19.3% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, analysts expect that American Airlines Group will post -0.94 earnings per share for the current year.

Insider Buying and Selling at American Airlines Group

In other news, SVP Angela Owens sold 40,077 shares of the stock in a transaction on Friday, July 31st. The stock was sold at an average price of $15.26, for a total transaction of $611,575.02. Following the transaction, the senior vice president directly owned 178,799 shares of the company's stock, valued at $2,728,472.74. This represents a 18.31% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through this link. 0.70% of the stock is owned by insiders.

American Airlines Group News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Record revenue and an earnings beat: Third-quarter revenue rose 19.3% year over year to $16.34 billion, exceeding estimates of $16.21 billion. The adjusted loss of $0.28 per share was narrower than the expected $0.36 loss, helped by premium demand and continued revenue growth. American sets new revenue records amid historic fuel cost pressure
• Positive Sentiment: Revenue outlook remains resilient: American’s fourth-quarter revenue guidance midpoint of $16.94 billion was reportedly above analyst expectations, suggesting strong demand and pricing momentum even as profitability remains pressured.
• Positive Sentiment: Morgan Stanley remains constructive: The firm maintained an “overweight” rating on AAL, though it reduced its price target from $24 to $22. The revised target still implies substantial upside from recent levels.
• Neutral Sentiment: Industry-wide fare increases may help offset costs: U.S. airlines are favoring higher fares over fuller planes as fuel expenses squeeze margins, potentially supporting American’s revenue but risking demand weakness. US airlines favor higher fares over fuller planes as fuel costs squeeze profits
• Negative Sentiment: Fuel costs are overwhelming revenue gains: Fuel expense increased roughly 67.5%, or $1.9 billion, year over year, contributing to a $182 million adjusted quarterly loss. Management cited historically high fuel prices as the main challenge.
• Negative Sentiment: Profit outlook deteriorated: American expects an adjusted fourth-quarter loss of approximately $0.50 to $1.10 per share and now anticipates a full-year 2026 loss. This weaker outlook initially pressured the stock despite the quarterly revenue beat. American Airlines forecasts 2026 loss as fuel costs outpace fare gains
• Negative Sentiment: Bearish options activity: Traders purchased an unusually large volume of AAL put options, indicating increased hedging or downside speculation around fuel prices and the company’s earnings outlook.

About American Airlines Group

American Airlines Group Inc is a holding company whose principal subsidiary, American Airlines, provides scheduled passenger air transportation and air cargo services. The company operates a large mainline network under the American Airlines brand and offers regional service through carriers operating as American Eagle. Its services include domestic and international flights, connecting passengers through a network of hubs and focus cities.

American Airlines serves destinations throughout the United States, as well as markets in Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, Central and South America, Europe, Asia and other international regions.

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