Pantheon Infrastructure H2 Earnings Call Highlights

Key Points

• Pantheon has consistently exceeded its targeted 8%–10% total NAV return, reporting 11% in 2023, 14.9% in 2024 and 14.4% last year; NAV per share rose to £1.304 and the dividend was increased by 3.5% with cover of 1.1x.
• Major realizations — the conditional sale of Calpine (closed Jan. 7) and a partial exit from Intersect Power — delivered roughly £70m of proceeds (including about $44m from Intersect), leaving around £80m available to invest and an RCF extended to 2029, with ~£10m ring‑fenced for buybacks.
• The portfolio has shifted toward North America and digital exposure is now below 40%; management is prioritizing contracted, regulatory-backed cash flows and sees AI-driven demand in data centers and power as key growth drivers, while flagging underperformance at names like Cartier Énergie and Delta Fiber.

Pantheon Infrastructure LON: PINT reported what management described as another year of NAV outperformance and dividend progression, alongside major portfolio liquidity events that have reshaped capital allocation heading into the new financial year.

Speaking during the company’s full-year results investor presentation, Partner Richard Sem said the strategy remains focused on a diversified portfolio of “core plus” infrastructure assets in Western Europe and North America, emphasizing long-term sustainable cash flows and downside protection through “regulatory or contractual models” rather than GDP-linked exposure.

Performance and shareholder returns

Sem reiterated the company’s targeted 8%–10% total NAV return and said Pantheon Infrastructure has exceeded that target in each year since the portfolio became fully invested three years ago. He highlighted annual NAV total returns of 11% in 2023, 14.9% in 2024, and 14.4% last year, with NAV per share rising to £1.304.

On dividends, Sem said the company had committed to a progressive payout and increased the dividend by 3.5% over the last year. Principal Ben Perkins added that dividend cover for the year was 1.1x, noting that expected distributions from Calpine did not arrive during the year but were offset by earlier-than-expected distributions elsewhere in the portfolio.

Sem also pointed to relative performance, citing a 45.9% NAV total return over three years and “almost a 60%” share price gain over the same period, which he said compared favorably to sector indices. He added that Pantheon Infrastructure was included in the FTSE 250 last year, which he said supported liquidity in the shares.

Portfolio developments: digital strength, select pressure points

Perkins said the last year’s portfolio shifts were driven by the new investment in Intersect Power and valuation gains at Calpine, which increased North American exposure and reduced digital exposure, with digital now “below 40%” versus roughly 45% previously. He emphasized that contracted revenues remain central to underwriting, particularly amid “macro volatility and the geographic issues” expected over the next year.

Within digital infrastructure, Perkins described continued momentum in data centers driven by AI-related capex demand. He said CyrusOne had its “best year ever,” including “around half a gigawatts worth of bookings.” He also cited the Vantage “Stargate” development announcement, a joint venture between OpenAI and Oracle described as “around 2.5 GW of compute.”

In fiber, Perkins said NBI (rural Ireland) continued to track well and is nearing the end of its intervention period, covering “around 560,000 homes,” with early uptake showing “very high penetration relative to what they expected.” By contrast, he said Delta Fiber is facing “slightly higher overbuild” than expected, creating more competition and reducing potential customers. He said a potential de-risking event could come via the sale of “around 200,000 homes,” pending Dutch regulatory approval.

In towers, Perkins said Vertical Bridge is being scored below plan because syndication of bridging finance used to acquire the Project Thor portfolio has taken longer than expected, leading to the valuation being held flat. He said Deutsche Funkturm (formerly GD Towers) is tracking well, supported by a build-to-suit program with Telefónica and network modernization work.

Among power and utilities, Perkins said National Gas has performed “very well,” citing a favorable Ofgem outcome on the GT3 pricing control and potential valuation upside. He also flagged National Gas’ first hydrogen investment and said the company expects an Ofgem announcement that hydrogen blending up to 3% will be permitted across gas distribution and transmission networks.

Perkins highlighted weaker performance at Cartier Énergie, which he said has been written down to 0.8x invested cost. He attributed the decline to “some exposure to natural gas prices,” failure to renew “one key customer,” and milder winters affecting heat demand. The company has reduced growth ambitions, and the lower growth outlook has flowed through to valuation.

In renewables and energy transition exposures, Perkins said Fudura (Dutch medium-voltage transformer leasing) moved from above plan to below plan due to flat EBITDA growth, though he expects a rebound as the company pursues a larger order book and expands into “behind the meter batteries, smart meters, and also rooftop solar.” He said Zenobē continues its rollout across battery storage and buses, and suggested it could fare better in coming years if energy volatility increases revenues.

Perkins also noted that cold chain logistics asset Primafrio performed in line with expectations but remains “acutely exposed” to fuel costs, with around 30% of overhead linked to diesel.

Liquidity events: Calpine closes and Intersect partially realized

Management focused heavily on recent realizations. Perkins said the conditional realization of Calpine—sold to Constellation Energy Corporation for cash and Constellation shares—closed on Jan. 7 after structuring challenges. Pantheon and other Pantheon clients elected to take a distribution in kind, receiving “slightly higher shares and slightly less cash” on a “value-neutral basis.” At year-end, Calpine was marked at “3x,” based on a Constellation share price of “around $350,” which he said has since softened.

On Intersect Power, Perkins said the company announced the investment in September and soon after announced a partial realization, which “delivered around a 2.5x NAV per share uplift.” He said Pantheon Infrastructure received about $44 million in distributions in March, meaning it has already received “about 1.2x cost.” The company remains exposed to residual assets retained in IPX Power, described as a pipeline of grid-scale renewables (solar, some wind, and battery storage), with an expectation of a full exit within “the next 12–24 months.”

NAV bridge, capital allocation, and outlook

Perkins said NAV per share increased 12.3p in the period; adding back the dividend of 4.3p implied a 16.6p net uplift. He attributed most of the movement to underlying fair value gains of 17.6p (around £80 million), partially offset by portfolio effects (-0.9p), with hedge movements (+1.9p) and expenses (-2.1p, including financing costs). He said the portfolio closed at £608 million.

On liquidity, Perkins said the balance sheet shifted post year-end, with around £70 million received across Intersect Power and Calpine. Total sources available, including the revolving credit facility and cash, were “around £170 million,” and after buffers, buyback capacity, and uncalled commitments, the company had roughly £80 million available to invest. He said Pantheon Infrastructure is looking to deploy into potentially “two assets,” upsizing average ticket size from about £35 million to around £40 million. He also noted the RCF was extended to 2029 with a 20 basis point reduction in the drawn margin.

In Q&A, Sem said the company has reserved “almost £10 million” toward buybacks, subject to board discretion, but suggested most liquidity would be used to reinvest given returns available in the pipeline. He also said Pantheon Infrastructure is currently “the best-rated infrastructure company out there” in terms of discount and cited signs of limited selling as the share price has risen.

Asked about NAV growth drivers, Perkins pointed to digital—especially data centers—saying both CyrusOne and Vantage delivered their best years and that valuation upside could follow as contracted capex is delivered into EBITDA. He also cited adjacency to AI demand in power-related investments and expressed enthusiasm for Zenobē’s decarbonization theme, while calling out NBI’s progress on build-out and customer uptake.

On the macro backdrop, Sem listed continued geopolitical and inflation uncertainty and said infrastructure has “performed pretty well” in volatile periods due to inflation protection and contractual/regulatory underpinning. He said the company is leaning into power and generation given demand from decarbonization and digitization, while noting increased caution around assets such as airports due to footfall and fuel-cost risk.

Perkins addressed concerns about an “AI bubble” by emphasizing that Pantheon Infrastructure is not investing in early-stage tech companies but instead in “the picks and shovels”—data centers and the power fueling them—often backed by hyperscaler counterparties with large balance sheets. He added that, in his view, grid power constraints could limit oversupply risk in AI-related data center capacity.

Finally, responding to questions about below-plan assets, Sem said a core-plus approach can involve variability versus underwriting but stressed a focus on downside protection, diversification across sectors and sponsors, and a preference for build-to-suit growth backed by contracted revenues rather than speculative expansion.

About Pantheon Infrastructure LON: PINT

Pantheon Infrastructure Plc aims to provide exposure to a global, diversified portfolio of high-quality, infrastructure assets. We will seek to build a portfolio of co-investments in infrastructure assets with strong defensive characteristics, typically benefitting from contracted cash flows, inflation protection and conservative leverage profiles. Target assets will have strong environmental, social and governance (ESG) credentials, including companies and projects that can support the transition to a low-carbon economy, and the portfolio will span the digital infrastructure, power and utilities, transportation and logistics, renewables and social investments sub-sectors, with a focus on assets benefitting from secular tailwinds.

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