Chevron Earnings Hint at New Highs—Is CVX Ready to Run?

Key Points

• Chevron earnings highlighted record production and strong cash flow despite lower oil prices.
• The company's newly acquired Hess assets and global projects position set the stage for production growth in 2026.
• A 39-year dividend growth streak and rising momentum support a bullish case for CVX stock.

Chevron Corporation NYSE: CVX delivered mixed results in its fourth-quarter earnings report. The integrated oil giant had a slight miss on revenue, but earnings came in above expectations. Several metrics were also lower year-over-year, which coincided with lower oil prices in 2025.

However, the company is looking forward to a strong year in 2026. Two reasons for the company’s optimism include a full year of production with the assets it acquired in its merger with Hess. It’s also primed to take a lead role in Venezuela. Chevron announced plans to ramp up production in the country by 50% in the next 18 to 24 months.

Investors may not have gotten everything they wanted from Chevron’s earnings report, but the results show why Chevron continues to be a solid buy in the energy sector. In addition to a solid dividend, Chevron's results are likely to keep CVX stock rallying to a new all-time high, a target that is likely to be in place by the end of the year.

Record Production Drives Growth

Chevron achieved record production in 2025, posting a 12% increase that placed the company at the top end of its guidance range. This performance was driven by major execution milestones across several key projects, including:

• Tengizchevroil (TCO)
• Permian Basin
• Gulf of America (GOA)
• Geismar chemical facility

Net oil and gas production benefited significantly from the 261 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED) contributed by newly acquired Hess assets, primarily from operations in Guyana and the Bakken formation.

The company's operational momentum extends beyond traditional upstream activities. In the Eastern Mediterranean, Chevron completed its Tamar optimization project with first gas and reached a final investment decision on the Leviathan expansion, with additional capacity expected online in the first quarter of 2026. The Aphrodite gas development has also entered the front-end engineering design phase, positioning the company for sustained growth in this strategic region.

Looking ahead to 2026, Chevron projects production growth of 7% to 10% at $60 per barrel Brent pricing. As noted above, this outlook incorporates a full year of contributions from Hess assets in Guyana and the Bakken, offshore growth from GOA and the Eastern Mediterranean, and recognizes that the company's U.S. shale and tight portfolio has reached a production plateau. Management expects TCO to contribute an additional 30 MBOED while cautioning that base production and other factors could reduce output by approximately 50 MBOED.

39 Years and Counting

Chevron announced an increase to its dividend to $1.78 from $1.71, a 4% increase from the prior year. It's also below the annualized five-year dividend growth of 6.49%. However, it makes it 39 consecutive years of dividend increases for this Dividend Aristocrat. 

The dividend is well supported by the company’s adjusted free cash flow (FCF), which was up 35% in 2025 despite the price of oil being down by 15%.

Strong Financial Position and Capital Discipline

Chevron's financial performance in 2025 underscores its resilience in a challenging price environment. The company generated $33.9 billion in cash flow from operations, with $34.9 billion excluding working capital changes.

Full-year earnings reached $12.3 billion, or $6.63 per diluted share, while adjusted earnings came in at $13.5 billion, or $7.29 per share. These results demonstrate the company's ability to maintain profitability even as Brent crude averaged $69 per barrel, down from $81 per barrel in 2024.

The company returned a record $27 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $2.2 billion in Hess common stock purchased in the first quarter. This comprised $12.8 billion in dividends and $12.1 billion in share repurchases, reflecting management's commitment to its through-the-cycle shareholder return strategy.

Capital discipline remains a cornerstone of Chevron's strategy. The company achieved $1.5 billion in structural cost savings during 2025, with efficiency gains accounting for more than 60% of the total reduction. Management remains on track to deliver $3 to $4 billion in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, positioning the company to maintain its dividend breakeven price below $50 per barrel for Brent crude through 2030.

Higher All-Time Highs Are in Sight

CVX stock is up more than 12% in 2026, heading into earnings. That’s pushed the stock past its rising 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and close to a new 52-week high. This breakout confirms a bullish change from last year’s choppy consolidation pattern and makes the prior ceiling around $155 as a level of fresh support.

More encouraging is that the move higher is being supported by expanding volume, as seen in the MACD line, which is now firmly in positive territory. This signals that momentum is strengthening to the upside and not just a temporary spike.