NVIDIA’s Next Leg Higher May Have Started at CES

Key Points

• NVIDIA's CES announcements position it to continue dominating the AI landscape in 2026. 
• Analysts responded favorably to the news, affirming an outlook for a 40% to 90% upside this year.
• Institutions are accumulating this stock and have accelerated their activity in the first week of the year.

Highlights from the CES conference provide numerous reasons to believe NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock price will continue rising in 2026, affirming an outlook for a $7 trillion valuation in the not-too-distant future. Sales in China, an accelerated release schedule, and their impact on the market are the primary drivers.

The takeaway for investors is that 2026 will be another pivotal year for this company, and the ample, nearly 40% upside indicated by analysts' consensus is likely to be a low target, easily reached by year’s end. 

H200 Sales in China Could Reignite NVIDIA’s Growth Trajectory

Hurdles remain, but it looks like NVIDIA is on track to resume sales in China. While China is being China, seeking to limit NVIDIA's dominance and strengthen demand for local products, both it and the U.S. are moving to allow access.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang estimated the business to be worth $50 billion annually, worth approximately 25% growth relative to the 2026 revenue forecast. Even so, with growth expected to remain in the high double digits for the next five years and a mid-teens CAGR for the following five, this technology stock is a deep value. 

Trading at 40x the 2026 earnings estimate, it is less than 10x the 2035 estimate, suggesting a minimum of 100% upside is likely over the next few years. A 100% increase in NVIDIA's stock price by 2035 would align NVIDIA’s price multiple with the S&P 500 average, and that does not include any premium. An advance aligned with historical trends for blue-chip tech leaders, which trade at a 30x to 35x multiple, adds another 10,000 to 15,000 basis points to the upside target. Assuming sales to China are allowed, the value is more profound.

Accelerating Release Schedule Adds Upside to the Outlook

Analysts had a robust outlook for 2026 sales, boosted by news that the Vera Rubin line was already in full production. Expected to be released in the second half of 2026, the line includes six 100% new chips with improved performance and efficiency, designed to support AI inference. 

The chatter is that the Vera Rubin lineup, which will compete with the Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ: AMD MI450 launch, will generate significant revenue and up the expectations for the year. As it is, the consensus is for approximately 65% revenue growth this year, followed by another 50% increase the following year. 

The analysts also noted strategic moves, including the launch of Alpamayo. It is a family of open-source AI models for autonomous vehicles rated Level 4, enabling vehicles to reason through complex situations rather than simply react to them. Analysts view it as a catalyst in 2026, aligning with the goal of integrating GPUs and AI into physical AI applications. 

Analysts Respond Bullishly to CES Event: Institutions Accumulate NVIDIA Stock

The analyst response to the CES revelations was bullish, including numerous reaffirmed ratings and price targets. The data tracked by MarketBeat reflects a high-conviction Buy, with 51 of 54 analysts rating it a Buy, an approximately 95% Buy-side bias, coverage swelling, and the price target skyrocketing. The consensus is up 60% YOY in early January 2026, indicating a 40% upside, with trends pointing to the high-end range, or an approximately 90% upside when reached. 

The institutions own 65% of NVIDIA stock, offer strong support, and are increasing their holdings in 2026. The data reveal that they bought on balance across all four quarters of 2025, ran at an approximately $2 bought-for-each-$1 sold pace, and accelerated activity to a $10-to-$1 pace in the first week of 2026. This provides not only a solid support base but also a tailwind for price action, as reflected in the chart. NVIDIA’s stock price fell in late 2025, hit a bottom aligned with its 150-day EMA, and has since rebounded.